A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!
Friday, November 15, 2019
Coastal Low with Tropical Energy ... Feels Like Winter... November. What Will This Winter Bring I Wonder...
Another Winter Storm in the Deep South in Hurricane Country.
Keeping this short today.
I just want to explain a few things.
Things to come so to speak.
For days mets have been waiting...
...for this system to show up.
Modeling showed dramatic images.
A deep slice of Arctic cold air...
slicing down into the middle of the country.
There has been much salivating going on...
..waiting to see if this would verify.
Note the watches and warnings up now.
Note the radar today and map.
Now look at the loop for the next 3 days.
That's intense.
Two things to think on here.
One....
If you remember back during the hurricane season Texas had flooding rains over and over from unnamed storms that developed from a low just off the coast? This is the same set up now this winter they had during the hurricane season. Now that fronts are on the move the lows that form are hooking up with the frontal boundaries moving across the map as the Southern Jet is enhanced due to El Nino. This should continue this winter and I'm wondering on what the 2019 Hurricane Season will bring or won't bring depending on how and where El Nino is strongest. Until then Texas is in it!
Two...
People think a winter storm is not a winter storm unless someone is buried under a foot of snow. Nope, that's not how it works in the South. Winter storms bring flooding rains, torrential downpours and severe weather and even occasionally tornado outbreaks as the warm, warm air from the Gulf of Mexico meets up with the Polar Cold Air from "Up North" as we say "Down South. That collision zone can get nasty. Waves along the coast can and will be high. Wind will be strong and yet except on TWC it will not get a name. But it's wicked weather just the same.
So if you live in the Old Deep South anywhere from Texas to the Mid Atlantic keep your eye on your best weather source for local advice. The weather will spread up along the whole coast of the US and someone, somewhere will get actual winter weather ala snow. However, weather is weather and when it gets nasty it can wreak havoc from travel problems to just regular every day problems.
In North Carolina we have had record rainfall this year and other areas as well have had and between wet winter storms and snow further to the North at some point Spring Floods may be a real concern down the road... or rather down the river. Stay tuned...
Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter
Ps... This is called "Sea Foam" and it's fun to watch along the Outer Banks. But after the departure of the Great Carolina Snow Storm ;) it really kicked up the waters along OBX. Enjoy the video.... great place to visit and spend time in any weather but I prefer it when the wind is blowing.
Showing this image below as it shows how close the storm is positioned now and where her hurricane force winds are (dark muddy red) just touching the coast and the wider mustard of Tropical Storm force winds. The Hurricane Warnings go SC to the border of NC/VA. In truth it's a map drawn to give you an idea and understand hurricane force winds do not stop at a border and often extend North into VA along the beaches in squalls. Florence has always been top heavy and her bottom Southern side has always had difficulties maintaining itself. Even the eye wall on the Southern side last night was breached by dry air, but it mixed the dry air out and bounced back. Note in the short term the coast between NC and VA is getting pounded, in the long term she is forecast to crawl across the lower part of NC and through the upper parts of SC (or possibly jaunt down the coast a bit to see Myrtle Beach) and weather will go EVERYWHERE. So the map is a guide it is not a set in stone deity to believe beyond anything else. And, it changes in real time so if you go to sleep at 10 PM because you saw the cone at 5 PM you may miss any changes in strength or direction at 11 PM when they make major changes. Don't wake up and act upset you didn't think that was happening because you missed the 11 PM. Weather happens in real time and the NHC adjusts by degrees as needed. She can speed up suddenly or come to a grinding halt and move tediously slow dumping rain over the same spot for over 24 hours.
As for me I'm organizing (something Capricorns do often) and putting things in places I can find them in case the power goes out. It's possible, I have to know that, but I'm hoping we don't lose power. I cooked dinner for Friday night today in case I don't have power tomorrow or time. I cleaned, did laundry and moved some things away from windows in case I have a problem... But I'm not expecting a problem. But you prepare for the worst and hope for the best. I'm giving you an example. Keep your phones plugged in as much as possible at full power in case your power goes out and keep your power sticks full and somewhere you can find them. Flashlights, candles, medications all should be somewhere in an interior room where everyone can easily find them. Those are the basics if you live inland vs down at the coast where the tide has already risen and is flooding towns, beaches, stores and 2/3 of Emerald Isle is already out of power. Emerald Isle is a thin sliver of land South of Morehead.. it has a rough hurricane history and after Hazel and then after Fran in the quiet years people built homes like they never thought a hurricane would make landfall that strong again. I have friends who have homes there, it's their favorite place in the world. To me I prefer Morehead, Atlantic Beach and New Bern...and walking on the beach in Wrightsville and then going into Wilmington for dinner and to walk along the river and watch the sunset over the Cape Fear River. This storm is a watershed moment in my life as it shows me how much of a Carolinian I have become over the last ten years. Go Panthers!
Close up maps of the two areas currently under assault from Hurricane Florence.
This is what you need the battery operated radio for..
..to stay in touch with the world
Some thoughts from Twitter.
Always curious on what Cranky has to say..
So true what he said below.
The rest is mostly thoughts on my life in Raleigh today.
I'll be busy today preparing for what may be tomorrow.
I'll update later today after the 5 PM advisory package.
Dark and beautiful in Raleigh today.
Hurricane Florence now visible on our local radar and noticeable in ways in the air via the clouds, beautiful steady breeze and depending on where you live rain or drizzle, and rising water from the bays and inlets here that we call "sound" or "bouge" along the coast. To be clear I do not live by the coast, I live inland in the "Piedmont" where the land begins to rise but not near the mountains. Raleigh is the "in between" land, you can drive down to the coast for the day or up to the mountains though both can be a long drive depending on where you are going. In Raleigh this morning it's apparent the Hurricane is knocking on the door of North Carolina as the sky is heavily cloaked in dark gray clouds streaming in from the East and Southeast. There is a steady, beautiful breeze but not strong yet and drizzle is often seen in the air. I'm not used to that as in Miami you get heavy bands early on out in front of the storm, but here there is drizzle in the air and it looks as if it is about to rain but it just keeps fine mist drizzling.
So my thoughts are on past storms and communities of people who lived here in the 1800s and woke up to this weather and knowing it's not a normal pattern as cold fronts come in from the North and West and summer rain comes in dark and steady with thunder and lightning they had to know there was a big blow down by the coast somewhere. It must have been scary and worrisome as many people in Raleigh had family and business contacts in New Bern (the original capital of NC) and without cellphones or phones they had no way of knowing if their loved ones were safe. They also had no way of knowing how bad it was going to get in Raleigh as sometimes inland bound hurricanes came and tore trees out by their roots and knocked down fences, ruined crops and destroyed businesses; usually they don't make it up to this part of the state but when they do it's a long term mess. What did old settlers really know I wonder?
In Raleigh people are trying to squeeze work in today before we know for sure what tomorrow will be like. Parents are out with kids at parks especially near rivers doing what parents do before the storm... sharing a memory with their children of going out before the storm comes in.
The father walked the grandmother slowly down to the river.
The mother and the two little girls ran ahead.
And then they unpacked some food and sat a bit.
Raleigh is and always was a river city.
I was upset we didn't drive down to the ocean. I like to see the ocean before a storm to know what the storm is really like but I didn't want to get in the way of evacuation routes. When you have seen as many hurricanes as I have you can tell from the waves, surf and "the feel" exactly how strong the storm really is or how bad or easy it may be. Trust me on this... Sandy passed by Miami but it had a mean, cruel look and Floyd was one of the wildest oceans I have ever seen in Miami as it slid by us well forecast to by the NHC on it's way to creaming North Carolina. Andrew on Miami Beach was powerful, the sound of the ocean roaring like a jet's engine left on and without waver. So we went up to the Neuse River where we often go especially to do Tashlich a custom Jews have during this High Holiday period; any running water with fish it will do but we like to go up to the dam by the river where we often have picnics. Yes, we have enough gas for the short trip and yes it was worth it as it was very inspiring to me. Raleigh is here because of the river and on a quiet, gray day I could almost picture it as it looked years ago near where the mill was and where people lived before they dammed up the river creating Falls Lake. We could not drive up to the top for the view as the park was closed however people were walking up there around the closed signs. I had priorities, not hiking uphill for a long walk today. So we stayed here a bit.
So now I'm home.
This blog is powered by a Pumpkin Spice Soy Milk Frappe.
Sweet, delicious and perfect for the moment.
Note Starbucks is closing at 6 PM in Raleigh today.
They will assess the situation for tomorrow...
...later today.
The Dollar Store and Harris Teeter are open..
I'm home organizing, watching TWC where on air meteorologists are standing by my beaches and places we spend our time at often. Local news is on as well and I've got things to do. I'll be on Twitter all day but will do a long update tonight after the 5 PM Advisory package comes in and the next set of model runs come out. It's an odd feeling on air mets I know...at my beaches I love, watching from afar. I used to chase storms with others in Florida where we stood near the networks did their live shots before the storm... they often get moved up and down the coast depending on where the storm goes. Chasers move around a lot obviously chasing the storm, sharing important valuable data and taking video that is often studied after the storm for evaluation purposes.
So far not much has changed. Florence is weaker in strength, though still wide in size and still moving NW a bit slower but steady at 10 MPH. Will she stall? Where will she stall? Where will she make landfall? We know the 'who" we aren't sure on the when or where. Journalism 101 never goes totally away. Then does she decide to go for a jaunt down to Charleston as many up here do after spending the night in Myrtle Beach? People are prone to say "you wanna drive on down to Charleston?" and that's what we are wondering today regarding Florence's future track will she go West or slide south of West a bit? I'm not set on her going that far South but time will tell. Either way her storm surge spreads out like a huge fan in all directions as it approaches the coast so up in Virginia the tide is high and down in Myrtle Beach the water is rising as well. New Bern at the juncture of two rivers (one of my favorite cities) in the path of storm surge and they are prepared and waiting for it. Fayetteville may see more of the storm than many thought and I mean a good amount of wind not just rising water and evacuees filling up the motels from Down East. Down East is what we in North Carolina call the beach and bogue communities down east there by the beach. Core Sound and Bouge Banks.. inlets, bays with odd historical names familiar now to me and others who live in North Carolina.
Good graphic from a wise meteorologist.
Followed him for more years than I want to say.
Note all the tracks take this along the NC/SC border.
Most tracks avoid inland NC..
Time will tell.
We are waiting to see and prepared.
This is more realistic than the last few days.
Less of a dip and more of a due Westward movement.
If you read previous blogs you know I spoke on this often.
I think it's more likely it will go due West...
...vs SW but Florence will show us her end game soon.
Location: Miami, Raleigh, Crown Heights, Florida, United States
Weather Historian. Studied meteorology and geography at FIU. Been quoted in Wall Street Journal, Washington Post & everywhere else... Lecturer, stormchaser, writer, dancer. If it's tropical it's topical ... covering the weather & musing on life. Follow me on Twitter @ https://twitter.com/#!/BobbiStorm
