December... Thanksgiving Over As Is the Hurricane Season of 2019. Traveling Back to the Carolinas Today...

Wondering if Mike makes a Winter Weather Tee Shirt?

Hmnnn.. may ask him.

My favorite place to go to know what's going on in the weather!

www.spaghettimodels.com

Snow and Winter Weather in the NE.

No hurricanes in the tropics.

Look at that beautiful world.

Note the big storm leaving the East Coast.

More moisture in the SW moving in...

Next storm system starting up.

I've missed most my weather friends this week.

But tried hard to live in the moment...

..with a super large family enjoying the moment.

Getting quality time when I could with who I could.

Blogging from the road today.

It's December.

I bought LED Chanukah stars in Target for my window.

Going to see if they work back in Raleigh ;)

The Hurricane Season is in the Rear View Mirror.

Well on our side of the world.

It's been a while I know. I spent the last week in sunny, South Florida hanging out with my kids, family, friends and taking in all my favorite places. Today we are continuing this trek back up the coast to more of my favorite places. A new favorite place showed up on the play list last night when we met my son, daughter-in-law and the adorable Olivia and Milo in St. Augustine dining by the harbor all lit up in twinkling lights at night. Beautiful. Writing this from Jacksonville, but by the time you read it we will have gotten back on the road Northbound.

I guess I missed all the hype about the Winter Storm of early December (E name on TWC?) and pretty sure it will be really remembered as the Thanksgiving Travel Storm Mess of 2019. If you were flying somewhere along the Northern rim of the country you may have been stuck in the airport somewhere, but driving in the Southeast the highways were blue, beautiful and sunny.

Thanksgiving Weekend snow may not happen often.

But really not that rare.

The truth is a Winter Storm that impacts the Northeast and Chicago messing up travel is not that rare a thing as if it was in Tampa Florida or even Atlanta... that would be huge news. I heard Cranky is missing on Twitter, hope he finds his way back to our neck of the woods. I've been offline most of this trip just enjoying life and living in the minute. The weather in Miami was beautiful, sometimes cool at night but not blazing hot during the day and the humidity was way down. My son is moving from his apartment that makes you feel like you are in Savannah with the fountain down below up town towards Aventura and the rest of the family.

So I had a long, espresso and said goodbye to my favorite breakfast spot this year when in Florida. New favorites are nice and will pop up this coming year I'm sure. We had a tropical Thanksgiving by my In Law's pool in the backyard where the frying turkey set off the yard's fire alarm system ... the bird was fine and the sprinklers quickly shut down. The house and adjacent Bird Farm (parrots) were fine, the ground just got a bit wet which was fine and the frying turkey barely noticed the fuss.

So what else happened this weekend?

Josh got to chase a cyclone!

Much to be thankful for there.

 DaBuh closed the 2019 Hurricane Season out.

Check that off the To Do List.

I'll blog on it once back in Raleigh.

The truth is it was all about Dorian.

Jim Williams wrote up an excellent report.

Note he was on the money totally this year.

All his top places he forecast would get hit...

...got hit so I'd listen to him carefully every year.

Link to article.

http://hurricanecity.com/blogs/2019/11/hurricane-season-predictions-summary/

Note in Florida when people ask experts.....

...they make sure Jim is there.

Visit his website and donate often.

It takes money to make the world go around.

And to keep websites going.

His city picks for being impacted are highlighted in yellow.

The yellow for the places that got hit.

Never seen anyone nail every city on their list.

He does deep analysis.

I've heard people say...

"well I don't like his system for picking cities...

My thought is "Really??" "It seems to work!"

He doesn't throw darts and get lucky.

Jim is analytical and a perfectionist.

This year he was as perfect as it gets!

My daughter in Miami helped a friend....

..adopt an adorable dog from the Bahamas.

One of the ones airlifted to Miami.

Everyone wants to adopt them until...

..they hear about their health problems.

From being in a Cat 5 Hurricane...

..and starving on the streets before being rescued.

I'll talk on that later this week.

Once home in Raleigh.

So I said goodbye to Miami.

Or as I think of it MYami.

And heading home for the Carolinas.

But Miami always MY home ;)

Hidden beautiful place #Miami #shores #miamishores #sunshine on the bay. pic.twitter.com/XbeHP0bPtT

— BobbiStorm (@BobbiStorm) November 28, 2019

Some places just make great coffee.

Miami, Tampa, Savannah, Seattle.

And other places in between like Nola.

 I know this is all about the coffee.

I may get a new Nespresso machine.

A small one for the bedroom.

I won't lie I'll really miss the perfectly made Cuban Coffee and Lattes ... you only get in Miami.

#becausemiami #Miami pic.twitter.com/70nN89mqb8

— BobbiStorm (@BobbiStorm) December 1, 2019

Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram.

Seems we are good when we have winter in all the right places, sunshine in Miami and storms with awesome cores Hurricane Man to chase ... For me I'm chasing really good coffee and an awesome pecan bun for lunch today!!

Another Winter Storm in the Deep South in Hurricane Country.

Keeping this short today.

I just want to explain a few things.

Things to come so to speak.

For days mets have been waiting...

...for this system to show up.

Modeling showed dramatic images.

A deep slice of Arctic cold air...

slicing down into the middle of the country.

There has been much salivating going on...

..waiting to see if this would verify.

Note the watches and warnings up now.

Note the radar today and map.

Now look at the loop for the next 3 days.

That's intense.

Two things to think on here.

One.... 

If you remember back during the hurricane season Texas had flooding rains over and over from unnamed storms that developed from a low just off the coast? This is the same set up now this winter they had during the hurricane season. Now that fronts are on the move the lows that form are hooking up with the frontal boundaries moving across the map as the Southern Jet is enhanced due to El Nino. This should continue this winter and I'm wondering on what the 2019 Hurricane Season will bring or won't bring depending on how and where El Nino is strongest. Until then Texas is in it! 

Two...

People think a winter storm is not a winter storm unless someone is buried under a foot of snow. Nope, that's not how it works in the South. Winter storms bring flooding rains, torrential downpours and severe weather and even occasionally tornado outbreaks as the warm, warm air from the Gulf of Mexico meets up with the Polar Cold Air from "Up North" as we say "Down South. That collision zone can get nasty. Waves along the coast can and will be high. Wind will be strong and yet except on TWC it will not get a name. But it's wicked weather just the same. 

So if you live in the Old Deep South anywhere from Texas to the Mid Atlantic keep your eye on your best weather source for local advice. The weather will spread up along the whole coast of the US and someone, somewhere will get actual winter weather ala snow. However, weather is weather and when it gets nasty it can wreak havoc from travel problems to just regular every day problems. 

In North Carolina we have had record rainfall this year and other areas as well have had and between wet winter storms and snow further to the North at some point Spring Floods may be a real concern down the road... or rather down the river. Stay tuned...

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter

Ps... This is called "Sea Foam" and it's fun to watch along the Outer Banks. But after the departure of the Great Carolina Snow Storm ;) it really kicked up the waters along OBX. Enjoy the video.... great place to visit and spend time in any weather but I prefer it when the wind is blowing.

I40 Winter Storm.... From TX/OK to NC Coast ...the Storm Does a Road Trip East Bound. Who Gets What? No One is Sure....

The players are visible on the loop above.

Note everything is East Bound....

High pressure pushing down from the North

Moisture piling in from the South.

And the Road Map is along Interstate 40.

I40 goes from NC to California.

Though in NC it's a major artery West to East.

Or East to West depending where you're going.

Takes a little dip down towards the SE to Wilmington.

This was the road of the North Carolina.

If you drove up to the mountains....

..... or you drove down to the sea.

Old timers know this road like the back of their hand.

It cuts straight across Oklahoma like a Mason Dixie Line.

Further to the North it's more like Kansas.

Further to the South it's more like Texas.

Arkansas.... Tennessee 

Then the beautiful North Carolina highlands.

The map above doesn't do the view justice but....

...it gets you where you are going.

A nice video shows you the view well ....

...way better than I can tell ya

Note the elevation...

(give it a few minutes to get going)

Love movies that show maps....

This picture shows you the story here...

Elevation!

Mountains...

The further up in elevation....

...the more chance you get of snow!

www.spaghettimodels.com

Above is a 5 day forecast for snow.

I added the 24 hour one in today.

Compare and contrast.

Note two things....

Snow accumulations aren't high further West.

But as it crosses the mountains...snow.

Snow forecast like the red spot on Jupiter over NC

But who gets exactly what?

Still hard to tell.

Evolves in real time.

Snow storms are wonderfully hard to forecast.

A Cape Verde Hurricane is way easier.

Those are some big mountains.

They could get a big snow storm.

It's also possible the big snow totals are to the East.

Winston Salem or Greensboro could get a lot.

Raleigh? Really no one is sure.

No one here ever is..

I show Raleigh as it's an iffy area.

And I live here.

Charlotte also is iffy as to the exact impact.

NWS above.

Accuweather below.

Waiting to see what will happen.

Days ago I posted this map on Twitter

What I was pointing out was the actual snow...

...and the system forming off the coast.

The low tightening up.

Few were talking on that.

DaBuh watches surf and weather.

He saw it coming and posted this today.

See it IS about the Low in the GOM.

Sitting near where Michael made landfall.

Has that been a magnet spot this year or what?

They are getting slammed with rain along the coast...

...and the winter storm to the North.

I10 gets rain.

I40 gets winter weather of some sort...

Still evolving in real time.

As the moisture in the GOM feeds the storm.

As the storm is moving East.

So many moving parts.

Showing these model pages from www.windy.com

Lot's of layers to play with there.

Saturday on the EURO...

Moisture moving in from the GOM.

Winter Weather moving in...

Over the mountains....

filling in the Foothills.

Piedmont Crescent gets a winter storm.

Yesterday's post explains the Piedmont Crescent.

Charlotte to Raleigh.

Check that post out later ..

Euro shows snow over NC.

Winter weather of various types.

Snow. Sleet. Freezing Rain maybe..

Below on  Sunday on the GFS moisture feeds in..

Snow takes a road trip on I40 East.

Snow!

Note the GFS has snow on Monday for Raleigh.

  

Much aligned GFS shown above.

See the snow over NC?

See the storm forming off the coast?

Could the snow really stop at the VA border?

Just a model..

Let's talk about the NAM.

Adding this in while editing.

Their discussion mirrors my thoughts.

And they ate two of the best especially in NC.

I'm ending this model discussion with the NAM.

Short term modeling.

Great image below.

Shows the players.

Note the moisture feed coming in from the GOM.

This is what Dabuh is watching.

Storm forming OFF the coast.

Transfer of energy.

Snow and Wintry Mix over Carolinas.

This is our end game.

How close to the coast will winter weather get?

Could Wilmington and New Bern see snow flakes?

Flurries falling?

Will this become an ICE STORM not a Snow storm?

That possibility is there for some...

TWC below....

Nice boots.

Note they say "Snow and Ice"

What is the bottom line here?

Travel will be treacherous on I40

Travel across parts of the South is a problem.

Whether you are driving from Atlanta to Charlotte..

....or Atlanta to Raleigh.

Maybe just don't.

Hunker down if you can.

Ride this out where you are...

Flights will be cancelled if you are flying..

Carefully consider your options if you are traveling.

I'm not traveling.

I'm hunkering down and waiting to see what I get.

I'll update at the top later today.

When the next models come in...

...and after we see the storm as it's evolving.

After I go shopping while I can...

Bread, Eggs, Coca Cola.

Still have water from Hurricane Season ;)

So far it slammed California with rain and mud.

Doing Texas from Amarillo to Lubbock ...

It's flirting with Oklahoma.

Stay tuned.

Winter Storms form and evolve in real time.

No real cones....

....just lots of hype and wishing.

Wishing it doesn't snow...

and wishing it snows and snows.

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter

Ps... Leaving this here. I have a friend who loves Asheville, loves snow and loves the piano.

I suppose if you watch this video you can understand why....   hoping to see some in Raleigh.

Winter Storm Avery. Going With That Hashtag ...Deal With It. First Official Winter Storm in November BEFORE Thanksgiving. Get Ready For the Winter of 2018/2019 It's Gonna Be Wicked.

Well this pretty much says it all.

Say it ain't so....

Hurricane Jim is out playing in the snow.

TWC calls this Winter Storm Avery.

First Winter Storm of 2018/2019

The first of many.

A look at www.spaghettimodels.com tells it is as it is...

He's selling winter clothes....

..in time for Christmas presents.

This is definitely the year the Grinch came early!

It's even coming to South Florida.

This is a real picture my daughter sent me.

Broward County.

See the new Hard Rock Guitar building behind it...

Out the front car window it's blue skies, sunny.

In the rear view mirror moving in are dark skies.

The raining on one side of the street thing is true there.

Down in Miami Dade County it's blue skies for now.

But the Cold front will move through soon.

The front will bring "end of world" looking skies.

And then.... the weather will drop down to the 60s at night.

Further up the I95 road there's snow...

And Winter Storm Avery

If you put the word "winter" into Twitter...

..the FIRST thing that comes up is #winterstormAvery

Sorry but true and I tell the truth here.

I'm not gonna use every Winter Storm Name trust me.

But FIRSTS are always important and impressive.

The first things we experience we always remember.

Be it First Loves, First Children, First time we saw snow...

The First Hurricane...

Ask Mike about his First Tornado...

So going with Avery for this one.

Why not?

I was in Maryland yesterday.

There was no snow.

But they were brining the streets.

A cute girl in a gas station in Waldorf said to me:

"yeah they're being all melodramatic about it"

She admitted she did think she'd see some snow.

And the snow be falling still.

DC is having their first snow on November 15th...

...in 22 years. 

Oh my goodness.

Talking since 1996...

Do you know where you were in 1996?

I do... 

Being very silly on AOL with Fishing...

AOL Weather Message Boards.

Palm Beach Post Message Boards...

..where Jim Williams was posting :)

And others...

We felt grown up but we acted like kids.

Good times. Good friends still.

But seems a lifetime ago.

Now I live in North Carolina.

I wait and watch for winter storms..

...as well as Hurricanes of course.

Boy this state has it all ;)

Ice Storms too!

Up near the mountains not here in Raleigh today.

It was a very interesting trip. The younger generation really watches their money and takes #adulting very seriously. Neither of my daughters in the NYC area have cable news or shows. They watch on APPS and share wifi with friends and they do their own thing. I was cut off from TWC and CNN and FOX and no local Spectrum News with Weather on the Ones. Basically I was in a time bubble hanging out with my kids, grandson and sampling the newest kosher restaurants in Manhattan and Brooklyn. Dixie BBQ makes unreal good burgers, fries and dairy free shakes and Mr. Broadway serves awesome sushi with complimentary pickles and Cole Slaw (sounds weird but actually was great Cole Slaw) so that happened. I got my news from the scroll on Madison Square Garden, oddly interesting and of course on Twitter. Generally I switch news channels depending on the story, in truth they are all depressing and combative so being away was a nice vacation from the news. I'm still not sure who won in Florida, but then again pretty sure no one is sure on that. 

In Raleigh the news is still about Hurricane Florence. The headline today was about Governor Cooper asking for an additional 5 BILLION Dollars in storm relief and a human interest story on shipwrecked crafts from Florence that are seemingly abandoned. A question asking if it's a matter of "Finders Keepers" mentioning that many of those ships have hazardous materials that need to be removed properly. Yes, the weather people moved on to the story of Hurricane Michael and then moved on to the Winter Storms of 2018 but in the North Carolina area it's all still about Florence. Trees weakened in the storm are more prone this winter to come down if there's a problem with Ice or a strong Winter Storm. 

https://www.newsobserver.com/news/local/article221701410.html#storylink=latest_side

Today's heavy rain from the Winter Storm that was more winter up in the mountains than down in the Piedmont and Sandhills brought flooding in some areas prone to flooding. Ice up in the mountains is a big problem as they definitely got more than a "glazing" as suggested by many.

I'm home. I got flowers at Trader Joes and food for Shabbos and I'm actually cooking soup as I type this as the raw, cold day today screams "soup" with dinner. It's good to be home. 

What I did want to add though is that this trip Up North was for my grandson Shmuel Ber who was having his haircut for the first time as part of a the traditional custom of having an Upshernish. In the Torah people are compared to trees and as we don't take fruit from a tree until it has produced fruit for three years we don't cut little boy's hair either until then. There is more to the story you can Google it but the family shows up, he gets lots of presents and is the center of attention in a way he will not be for another ten years until his Bar Mitzvah. My daughter lives "up state" and they love having a fire pit going in the backyard and doing BBQ. We had an awesome BBQ along with fancy cakes, treats and desserts. My grandson was happy and is still playing with his presents. I also got to see my older two daughters who live in the New York area.

Oddly though this trip seemed to be more about talking to older friends and relatives. My Mother-in-Law Zinnia is in a Rest Home in Maryland that is actually an old turn of the century 3 story mansion. It's really a "Rest Home" and they only have about fifteen people there with a nice staff, cheerful dining room, parlor, wrap around porch and real bedroom furniture in their private bedrooms. A lot nicer than the nursing home where her ex-husband was sent in Broward County next door to a large hospital to live out his final days. Marty was in a regular nice but generic and bland retirement home on a different floor from Zinnia until he needed extra care and hospice. A few months after he passed away the same nursing home was in the news as several patients died during Hurricane Irma when the electric went out and they were not moved to the big beautiful hospital next door for health care and that busy facility was in the news again later in the year for other problems. It's sad when an older, loved person needs more care than their family can give them and it's a hard decision what to do. The old Rest Home that was once a mansion up on the hill (think Peyton Place really) is a warm, loving facility giving the boarders a sense of dignity rather than sharing a hospital room with a stranger and being just another cog in the proverbial wheel. We stopped in on the way back to sit with her a while too and Zinnia being in Baltimore is closer to us than when she was in Florida and her only daughter lives nearby and comes and visits often which is wonderful.

We then went up to Woodridge near where my daughter is living so my husband could visit with one of his parent's oldest friends who is still alive, kicking and taken care of by neighbor in her house. I'm from Miami and I really prefer a Penthouse View, but my husband is from the country upstate where it's very different; I've never liked being there but this trip was awesome. She has this beautiful house on a hill that isn't that big but fits her perfectly, though she owned much land that she donated to the city to build a school. The Neversink River is off in the distance flowing fast visible now thorough the trees that no longer have many leaves up there. She has old, old books her mother left her and we sat and talked for hours. Her family has been in this country forever, the old country being "Winthrop Mass near Boston" though she thinks her family came from somewhere near Vilna. She's feisty, she says she knows she should give up smoking in her late 80s "but it's a habit" so she sits with her cigarettes, lights them as if she is smoking, holds them but really doesn't inhale. Sharp as a whip and funny.  She reminded me a bit of my Grandmother (who did not smoke) in that she could tell quite the tale and take you back to where she was at that point in time. Bright blue eyes that darted around watching and taking everything in... and posing with my husband for a picture as if she was a movie star. Awesome really. 

On the way back I sat at the "Rest Home" with May who is really named Mary but there is a Mary there so it's confusing and they asked her if they could call her May. The woman was 92 years old and barely had a wrinkle (she says she never used bar soap to wash her face....) and could tell stories about growing up in Brooklyn and had just gone to New York for a Christening for a Great Grandson and said she is not going "up there again" but I'm thinking she will. It's always amazing when you see older people who are alive, aware and vibrant... it's inspiring. 

The truth is you never really know what the future is and being depressed over things in the past is well depressing.... why we don't live in the present and enjoy it I don't know. Many of us do ... many do not and I thought much on this trip on why we worry so much. When I say "we" I mean me and my brother though I know because we were raised by a mother who worried about everything. So we end up walking a balance between taking chances (like storm chasing, traveling, moving about the country, pushing our safety zone) and then reverting to worrying behavior on everything. I actually thought deeply on this at the Ohel in Queens where the Lubavitcher Rebbe is buried and is a holy site where people pray. Worrying takes so much time away from us, it robs us of what is going on in the present as we are in a rush to worry on next week, next month and next year. It's one of those places where you go thinking you know what you will pray for and then suddenly all these other real thoughts rush in and you find yourself really praying on what has most been bothering you yet you couldn't put it into words.

So.... that was my trip. I'm back. I'll post on weather as it's evolving and currently we are evolving from the Hurricane Season to a Winter that will be devilish in it's own way. El Nino is producing one heck of a Subtropical Jet or as many say a "Southern Jet" and it will ramp up storms in the South as well as enhance ones Up North. Joe Bastardi (I know love him or hate him... he's a good meteorologist) has been screaming for this to be a cold winter for months. All the models now show that and it's overproducing in the same way that Florence wasn't expected to be much more than a Fish Storm off Africa but crossed the Atlantic at a high latitude, becoming a Major Hurricane and making landfall in the Carolinas. Everyone said the Caribbean was "dead" this year and yet it produced Hurricane Michael one of the strongest storms in a long time. We had a good hour or so of snow flurries in Upstate NY with no notice of them showing up in the forecast and this early Winter Storm Avery has over produced winter weather across many states and it's still evolving.

That's life. 

If you have hurricane supplies left, hold onto them for this Winter as we will see quite a few dangerous Winter Storms. Many insisted November would show a warm up after a colder than normal October and guess what? There was no warm up and none in sight other than this weekend the sun will come out and shine bright in Raleigh, but we will be dressing right. Speaking of Dressing I picked up a Turkey at a grocery store in Brooklyn named BINGO and am going through recipes for which to use this Shabbos and which to use this coming week for Thanksgiving. 

That's my life. I know I've been away but being away is good as it gives you the chance to reflect, breathe, see kids, eat sushi and hamburgers and way too much junk food while driving, buy presents for some of the grandchildren, children and sons and daughters in law. And when you come home it's so good to be home. And though snow is not in my immediate forecast I know it will show up soon. Below is a Map by an online friend who is good at making maps and forecasting weather. He's smart, quick, fun and a good dresser. Hoping to say hi in person next trip to New York in January rather than simply passing by quick :) Nice map.

https://twitter.com/AWxNYC

Reading his tweets and Cranky's Blog and Spaghetti Models..

...was my link to the weather world on this trip.

Loved seeing snow.

Loved seeing family too!

Travel safe if you're in Winter Storm Avery ;)

Icy, slick roads and nasty weather.

Besos Bobbistorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter

Ps.... look at that water vapor loop.

Tropical moisture sucked up into Winter Storms...

...will bring us a crazy, wicked winter.