Hurricane Harbor

A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!

Friday, December 07, 2018

I40 Winter Storm.... From TX/OK to NC Coast ...the Storm Does a Road Trip East Bound. Who Gets What? No One is Sure....

sat_wv_east_loop-12.gif (640×512)

The players are visible on the loop above.
Note everything is East Bound....
High pressure pushing down from the North
Moisture piling in from the South.
And the Road Map is along Interstate 40.

I40 goes from NC to California.
Though in NC it's a major artery West to East.
Or East to West depending where you're going.
Takes a little dip down towards the SE to Wilmington.
This was the road of the North Carolina.
If you drove up to the mountains....
..... or you drove down to the sea.
Old timers know this road like the back of their hand.

It cuts straight across Oklahoma like a Mason Dixie Line.
Further to the North it's more like Kansas.
Further to the South it's more like Texas.

Arkansas.... Tennessee 

Then the beautiful North Carolina highlands.

The map above doesn't do the view justice but.... gets you where you are going.

A nice video shows you the view well ....
...way better than I can tell ya

Note the elevation...
(give it a few minutes to get going)

Love movies that show maps....

This picture shows you the story here...

The further up in elevation....
...the more chance you get of snow!

Above is a 5 day forecast for snow.
I added the 24 hour one in today.
Compare and contrast.
Note two things....
Snow accumulations aren't high further West.
But as it crosses the mountains...snow.
Snow forecast like the red spot on Jupiter over NC
But who gets exactly what?
Still hard to tell.
Evolves in real time.
Snow storms are wonderfully hard to forecast.
A Cape Verde Hurricane is way easier.

Those are some big mountains.
They could get a big snow storm.
It's also possible the big snow totals are to the East.
Winston Salem or Greensboro could get a lot.
Raleigh? Really no one is sure.
No one here ever is..

I show Raleigh as it's an iffy area.
And I live here.
Charlotte also is iffy as to the exact impact.

NWS above.
Accuweather below.

Waiting to see what will happen.
Days ago I posted this map on Twitter

What I was pointing out was the actual snow...
...and the system forming off the coast.
The low tightening up.
Few were talking on that.
DaBuh watches surf and weather.
He saw it coming and posted this today.

See it IS about the Low in the GOM.
Sitting near where Michael made landfall.
Has that been a magnet spot this year or what?
They are getting slammed with rain along the coast...
...and the winter storm to the North.
I10 gets rain.
I40 gets winter weather of some sort...
Still evolving in real time.
As the moisture in the GOM feeds the storm.
As the storm is moving East.
So many moving parts.

Showing these model pages from
Lot's of layers to play with there.

Saturday on the EURO...
Moisture moving in from the GOM.
Winter Weather moving in...
Over the mountains....
filling in the Foothills.
Piedmont Crescent gets a winter storm.
Yesterday's post explains the Piedmont Crescent.
Charlotte to Raleigh.
Check that post out later ..

Euro shows snow over NC.
Winter weather of various types.
Snow. Sleet. Freezing Rain maybe..

Below on  Sunday on the GFS moisture feeds in..

Snow takes a road trip on I40 East.


Note the GFS has snow on Monday for Raleigh.

Much aligned GFS shown above.
See the snow over NC?
See the storm forming off the coast?
Could the snow really stop at the VA border?
Just a model..

Let's talk about the NAM.
Adding this in while editing.
Their discussion mirrors my thoughts.
And they ate two of the best especially in NC.

I'm ending this model discussion with the NAM.
Short term modeling.
Great image below.
Shows the players.

Note the moisture feed coming in from the GOM.
This is what Dabuh is watching.
Storm forming OFF the coast.
Transfer of energy.
Snow and Wintry Mix over Carolinas.
This is our end game.
How close to the coast will winter weather get?
Could Wilmington and New Bern see snow flakes?
Flurries falling?
Will this become an ICE STORM not a Snow storm?
That possibility is there for some...

TWC below....
Nice boots.
Note they say "Snow and Ice"

What is the bottom line here?
Travel will be treacherous on I40
Travel across parts of the South is a problem.
Whether you are driving from Atlanta to Charlotte..
....or Atlanta to Raleigh.
Maybe just don't.
Hunker down if you can.
Ride this out where you are...
Flights will be cancelled if you are flying..
Carefully consider your options if you are traveling.
I'm not traveling.
I'm hunkering down and waiting to see what I get.

I'll update at the top later today.
When the next models come in...
...and after we see the storm as it's evolving.
After I go shopping while I can...
Bread, Eggs, Coca Cola.
Still have water from Hurricane Season ;)

So far it slammed California with rain and mud.
Doing Texas from Amarillo to Lubbock ...
It's flirting with Oklahoma.

Stay tuned.
Winter Storms form and evolve in real time.
No real cones....
....just lots of hype and wishing.
Wishing it doesn't snow...
and wishing it snows and snows.

Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter

Ps... Leaving this here. I have a friend who loves Asheville, loves snow and loves the piano.
I suppose if you watch this video you can understand why....   hoping to see some in Raleigh.

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