Hurricane Harbor

Friday, December 07, 2018

I40 Winter Storm.... From TX/OK to NC Coast ...the Storm Does a Road Trip East Bound. Who Gets What? No One is Sure....

The players are visible on the loop above.

Note everything is East Bound....

High pressure pushing down from the North

Moisture piling in from the South.

And the Road Map is along Interstate 40.

I40 goes from NC to California.

Though in NC it's a major artery West to East.

Or East to West depending where you're going.

Takes a little dip down towards the SE to Wilmington.

This was the road of the North Carolina.

If you drove up to the mountains....

..... or you drove down to the sea.

Old timers know this road like the back of their hand.

It cuts straight across Oklahoma like a Mason Dixie Line.

Further to the North it's more like Kansas.

Further to the South it's more like Texas.

Arkansas.... Tennessee

Then the beautiful North Carolina highlands.

The map above doesn't do the view justice but....

...it gets you where you are going.

A nice video shows you the view well ....

...way better than I can tell ya

Note the elevation...

(give it a few minutes to get going)

Love movies that show maps....

This picture shows you the story here...

Elevation!

Mountains...

The further up in elevation....

...the more chance you get of snow!

www.spaghettimodels.com

Above is a 5 day forecast for snow.

I added the 24 hour one in today.

Compare and contrast.

Note two things....

Snow accumulations aren't high further West.

But as it crosses the mountains...snow.

Snow forecast like the red spot on Jupiter over NC

But who gets exactly what?

Still hard to tell.

Evolves in real time.

Snow storms are wonderfully hard to forecast.

A Cape Verde Hurricane is way easier.

Those are some big mountains.

They could get a big snow storm.

It's also possible the big snow totals are to the East.

Winston Salem or Greensboro could get a lot.

Raleigh? Really no one is sure.

No one here ever is..

I show Raleigh as it's an iffy area.

And I live here.

Charlotte also is iffy as to the exact impact.

NWS above.

Accuweather below.

Waiting to see what will happen.

Days ago I posted this map on Twitter

What I was pointing out was the actual snow...

...and the system forming off the coast.

The low tightening up.

Few were talking on that.

DaBuh watches surf and weather.

He saw it coming and posted this today.

See it IS about the Low in the GOM.

Sitting near where Michael made landfall.

Has that been a magnet spot this year or what?

They are getting slammed with rain along the coast...

...and the winter storm to the North.

I10 gets rain.

I40 gets winter weather of some sort...

Still evolving in real time.

As the moisture in the GOM feeds the storm.

As the storm is moving East.

So many moving parts.

Showing these model pages from www.windy.com

Lot's of layers to play with there.

Saturday on the EURO...

Moisture moving in from the GOM.

Winter Weather moving in...

Over the mountains....

filling in the Foothills.

Piedmont Crescent gets a winter storm.

Yesterday's post explains the Piedmont Crescent.

Charlotte to Raleigh.

Check that post out later ..

Euro shows snow over NC.

Winter weather of various types.

Snow. Sleet. Freezing Rain maybe..

Below on Sunday on the GFS moisture feeds in..

Snow takes a road trip on I40 East.

Snow!

Note the GFS has snow on Monday for Raleigh.

Much aligned GFS shown above.

See the snow over NC?

See the storm forming off the coast?

Could the snow really stop at the VA border?

Just a model..

Let's talk about the NAM.

Adding this in while editing.

Their discussion mirrors my thoughts.

And they ate two of the best especially in NC.

I'm ending this model discussion with the NAM.

Short term modeling.

Great image below.

Shows the players.

Note the moisture feed coming in from the GOM.

This is what Dabuh is watching.

Storm forming OFF the coast.

Transfer of energy.

Snow and Wintry Mix over Carolinas.

This is our end game.

How close to the coast will winter weather get?

Could Wilmington and New Bern see snow flakes?

Flurries falling?

Will this become an ICE STORM not a Snow storm?

That possibility is there for some...

TWC below....

Nice boots.

Note they say "Snow and Ice"

What is the bottom line here?

Travel will be treacherous on I40

Travel across parts of the South is a problem.

Whether you are driving from Atlanta to Charlotte..

....or Atlanta to Raleigh.

Maybe just don't.

Hunker down if you can.

Ride this out where you are...

Flights will be cancelled if you are flying..

Carefully consider your options if you are traveling.

I'm not traveling.

I'm hunkering down and waiting to see what I get.

I'll update at the top later today.

When the next models come in...

...and after we see the storm as it's evolving.

After I go shopping while I can...

Bread, Eggs, Coca Cola.

Still have water from Hurricane Season ;)

So far it slammed California with rain and mud.

Doing Texas from Amarillo to Lubbock ...

It's flirting with Oklahoma.

Stay tuned.

Winter Storms form and evolve in real time.

No real cones....

....just lots of hype and wishing.

Wishing it doesn't snow...

and wishing it snows and snows.

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter

Ps... Leaving this here. I have a friend who loves Asheville, loves snow and loves the piano.

I suppose if you watch this video you can understand why.... hoping to see some in Raleigh.

Labels: arkansas, asheville, FL, I10, I40, ice, maps, music, NC, oklahoma, SC, sleet, snow, Tennessee, Texas, travel, traveling, weather, winterstorm

Sunday, September 16, 2018

Carolina. Flooding From the Beaches to Charlotte .. Still Raining in Wilmington. Roads Closed. I94 I40 and multiple small roads. Stay Home. Stay Safe. Visit Carolina In Your Mind. #CarolinaStrong. Thoughts from Carolina on Florence.

Carolina is kind of closed today to travel.

This is the detour suggested.

Seriously.

This is why.

Florence is still here.

Caught in dead steering currents.

The death toll rises.

Trapped between High Pressure systems.

Pumping tropical moisture up over the Carolinas.

And parts of Virginia..

Look at her tail.

Hanging there.

Feeding her while she's way inland now.

Link to Road Travel Info for North Carolina.

Basically reads "Just don't!!"

https://tims.ncdot.gov/tims/

So not going to give you advisory information today or discussion from the NHC. I'm going to tell you about Florence from my perspective as I live here in Raleigh, safe from flooding and my power is blessedly on and I'm feeling #CarolinaStrong today. Grateful we are okay, sad people have died and mesmerized by the plight of people in flooded towns and in awe of the people who are helping rescue and evacuate people as I write this blog this Sunday morning.

When driving home to North Carolina from what used to be home in Florida you hit this moment when you finally leave I-95 and turn onto I-40 and you feel almost there.. almost home, almost back in the Triangle. When you get to the I-440 you KNOW you hang a right and you made it back home. You see to get to Raleigh you have to get off of I-95 and hang a left at I-40 and it's there you say fairwell to I-95 and hello to the Piedmont as the land begins to rise and things begin to change. I-95 is the dividing line for culture, for the type of BBQ sauce you use in the Carolinas and that stretch of the highway is often flooded when a hurricane comes through the part of the North State known as Down East. The Carolinas are divided at that fork in the road as "East of 95" and "West of 95" more than the actual state boundaries that run from West to East. Today that stretch of road is closed. Here's a map of I-40 and you can see how vital an artery it is to the people of North Carolina.

I-40 is the road we take in Raleigh to get down to Wilmington and the beach beyond at Wrightsville. I-40 is the road we take to drive West to the mountains to see the beauty of Asheville. And for those traveling through to Tennessee they take I-40 straight into Knoxville as they drive across the mountains marveling at Mother Nature's beauty. It is filled with small towns along the way where people live and and work. In Raleigh we travel I-40 on the weekend for dinner in Greensboro or down in Wilmington to eat somewhere at Riverwalk and watch the sun set over the Cape Fear River before heading back on I-40 to life in Raleigh in the middle of the state. I-95 may be one of the nation's major arteries but understand that I-40 is our vein.. it's our backbone in North Carolina. It's a little bit crooked as it hangs a right down past Raleigh and runs SW down to the beaches but it's how we get where we are going.

Drone footage. New Bern.

You do have to get off of I-40 to go to New Bern.

It's a trip worth taking.

But it will be a while before that happens...

Today in North Carolina few people are going anywhere unless they are reporters, a First Responder or a volunteer helping out somewhere. In Raleigh it's raining and we are watching Crabtree Creek hoping it doesn't rise much more. In Charlotte they are beginning to deal with flooding and power outages. Down East there are new lakes everywhere covering whole towns, roads to those towns and bridges that were taken out by moving water. This does happen once in a while in North Carolina but people here are strong, they help each other and life goes on as we begin to move towards Autumn and the cleanup that will continue on and on from Florence. It's a beautiful state on so many levels, truly from the beaches and the marsh land down by the coast to where it gently rises in the Piedmont and all the way up into the mountains.

Mother Nature is kind to us with the seasons that are longer in the Spring and Fall than most places and a short winter usually. If we are lucky we get a taste of winter and get to see snow falling more than once or twice, but on rare occasions you have to take the rain along with the sunshine. We will have had our share or rain this week and I'm looking forward to Wednesday when the sun is forecast to come out again in Raleigh but I'll believe it when I see it.

http://origin.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/allfcsts_loop_ndfd.gif a link if the loop don't work..

Where does Florence go next? Well that's a question you don't really wanna be asking. In theory she feels the pull of a dipping frontal boundary, pulls North over Western North Carolina and heads up towards the Northeast. There are some odd models that show her bouncing back with a harder right trying to get back to the ocean that she loves and possibly spinning up again, but I'll spare you all those images just yet until the next model run comes out. Suffice it to say it is possible there could be some strange things happening, but we can hope the frontal boundary dives more than dips and grabs Florence and takes her away.

Another link for the 7 day if you want to look out that far...

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/day0-7loop.html

As for Isaac... keep watching.
Just in case.

Ouch those models climb in intensity.

As for Helene and Joyce...

..not our problem.

Those images are from Spaghetti Models.

www.spaghettimodels.com

A look at Mike's always wonderful Spaghetti Models gives you all the links you need to follow the rising water, tropics and general weather information you need to know. Note the cone of Flo has bent a bit more to the East than it was before when they took it up into Ottawa. Always watch the trend in the cone. I'll write more on this later if I feel the need to make you worry unnecessarily about what could spin up close in from leftover moisture in Florence's tail. The models are on the top left of his page, if you feel the need feel free to go ahead and click on those models but don't say I didn't warn ya!

https://www.facebook.com/mikesweatherpage/

Anyone who has a problem with Mike is just jealous or got up on the wrong side of their bed way too often and needs an attitude readjustment. He is as we say Down South "good people" "good folk" ... a good guy. Mike is how we roll during the Hurricane Season or any season as he covers more than just the tropics. He drove his daughters (and his wife) up to North Florida to see snow falling last year from Tampa, he is that sort of father that any child would want to have.... he deserves an award.

Many people deserve an award from the NWS offices in every city along the way to the NHC but especially in Wilmington where they spent the night posting Tornado Warnings for the area as Florence refuses to let up and leave the area. If you don't believe me check out their Twitter Feed. They are like what the Postal Service used to be, they never rest, they never sleep.

https://twitter.com/NWSWilmingtonNC

So what next? The rains from Florence will move West and with that long awaited movement we may be taking the drama of Florence up into the mountains where orographic lift can cause even more misery up in mountain communities. I know you learned about that in school but it was a long time ago so here's a quick lesson in why we are so worried about what may come next. Basically it means that because of the terrain you can get more rain and snow out of a weather system than you might otherwise elsewhere.

Hoping and praying we don't have worst problems...

..down that tropical road.

Again leaving you this link below.

https://www.ourstate.com/the-deluge-of-1940/

Warning --- it's not for the faint of heart.

It's a detailed, well written article...

..about the harrowing details of a tragic flood.

Inland flooding. 1940.

After a hurricane got up into the mountains of NC.

Note that flood moved on to other places as well.

Weather happens.

History does repeat.

Each storm is different.

Floods happen.

Praying we don't see this happen.

Praying Flo decides she has had enough off the Carolinas.

Yeah we be down there under that dark red.

Florence's signature ...

...she came from Africa.

Across the ocean...

..and she doesn't wanna leave.

I'll leave y'all with this last piece of advice.

From the source that has worked round the clock.

Turn around, don't drown.

Stay home, read a book, bake something.

Call Uncle Joe.

The sun will come out Wednesday.

Lord have mercy have some patience.

Don't become a part of the problem.

Or God forbid a statistic.

Just wait it out...

Soon the State Fair will be here...

..leaves will begin to turn.

Starbucks has Pumpkin Spice Latte!

Good drink for a dark day like today.

I'll update as needed later on today.

My husband came home just now from morning services at the Temple with this piece of news. He heard "I-40 is closed all the way down to Wilmington and I-95 is out!" Yep, that's the news people are waking up to this morning in North Carolina. As for me I'm going to go offline, make some eggs and fake bacon cause I'm Kosher and yes that's a thing and have another cup of coffee. This hurricane has really been a watershed moment for me in time when I became more of a Carolinian than a Floridian, though I'm still holding onto those bragging rights as well. A few weeks before the hurricane the Miami Dolphins played my Carolina Panthers and I found myself yelling when we were pounding the Fins. For my friends back in Miami ..."sorry bout that" and I'll root for the Dolphins against any team except the Carolina Panthers #Keeppounding. Oh and I'll be watching the game later today when the Panthers play.

Everyone stay safe and honestly I have to tell you the Hurricane Season is NOT over. There should be a break in action for the next week or so as a huge pulse of Saharan Dust came off of Africa (yes they have an unlimited supply of that stuff) and Florence left a cool trail in the water along the coast off the Carolinas. There is a strong possibility of another large hurricane forming and affecting the East Coast and something possibly in the Gulf of Mexico before this hurricane season is in the books. Sorry but that's just life. After October or at the end of October it should be over and we are still sitting in prime time September with days to go before we don't have to worry on the tropics. But with every day we get that much closer to a cold front making it down past Virginia and dreams of snow falling from the sky. It's a ways off but we get there day by day.

Look at SAL in September.

Go figure.

For the next week or so we watch the Gulf of Mexico for the slim possibility of something happening. Subtropical regions are keeping the forecasters busy this season as 2 other Tropical Storms are staying safely away from the East Coast. And, they are still busy with Florence.

Keep watching.

Hang in there.

I'll update later today at some point.

Maybe after 5 PM...

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter.

Ps... The name Florence WILL be retired from the Hurricane List.

We may see fire and we may see rain...

...but we won't see this name again.

If you want to go to Carolina today...

do it in your mind.

The roads will open again.
And we will be back in business.

#CarolinaStrong

Labels: carolina, Charlotte, flooding, Florence, I40, I95, maps, music, NC, newbern, raleigh, SC, travel, traveling, VA, warnings, watches, weather, wilmington

Wednesday, July 25, 2018

Watching & Waiting. Close In Drama and Strong Tropical Waves. Mid Atlantic (Baltimore to NY) Needs to Worry on This Hurricane Season. Rain Tends to Bring Canes.

The NHC may say NO NO NO

But still we watch the tropics.

Best place to watch is Spaghetti Models.

Find your favorite product of the day.

Above highlighted is....

..areas the government highlights for possible development.

As we move towards August 1st...

...things heat up.

So now is a good time to prepare.

My favorite thing to buy for Hurricane Supplies?

1 lesson from Hurricane Andrew.

I wanted coffee more than water.

Miami girl... needs her cafecito.

Starbucks makes one too.

I don't really have time today to blog but I'm blogging just the same. Why you ask ...as the tropics look so dead? They aren't dead they are in "set up mode" kind of like a possum playing dead so he conserves his energy for when he needs it.

Look at that shadow effect from the last wave.

Still there.

Took a bit bite out of SAL.

Leaves it a kinder place for the new wave.

SAL is still there but wilting a bit under the nonstop attack from one tropical wave after another, each wave juicing up the atmosphere just a bit more each day. The wind flow pattern begins to change and as the sun begins to warm up the cooler water that once was there the tropical Atlantic becomes more favorable for tropical development. Each dying wave flares up just a bit more further West as they approach South America. Eventually one, like Beryl develops but unlike Beryl it will be easier to find on satellite imagery. Contrary to hype and repetitive news stories the 2018 Atlantic Hurricane Season is not dead, not a goner and it will not succumb for a while to El Nino that really is still picking out his outfit for his big debut on the weather stage.

2018 so far.

A huge Bermuda High is outlined above.

The Bermuda High breathes much like you and I do. It has it's good days and it's weaker days and sometimes it feels unstoppable. It inches West, it slides back to the East, it retrogrades back towards the West and then it moves back a drop more; the location of the High is everything when a hurricane is moving WNW towards the Caribbean and the East Coast. If it becomes a double barrel high than places in the Gulf of Mexico need to worry more than normal. As much as we watch the waves we have to watch the High Pressure that becomes their steering current and ticket to the New World. Think of those waves like Christopher Columbus going on a voyage westward.

Two things to think on.

On rare occasions ULLs can work their way down to the surface.

Especially this year where we are used to storms like Chris.

Close up below.

As areas sit over warm water...

...they need to be watched.

Tail end of dead fronts need to be watched.

Number 2...

They go where the low pressure is.

Most basic Cliff Noes there.

They try and avoid the High.

They go where the Low Pressure is...

That is where the Low Pressure is and has been.

Mid Atlantic with record levels of rain.

The ground already soaked and soggy.

As I said on Twitter...

we hope this does not play out..

...but it could.

Currently the Mid Atlantic is a magnet for weather.

Off the coast of Africa.

Our huge wave is exiting.

Finding a friendlier environment that earlier waves.

Something to keep in mind.

This year the East Coast is at higher risk than most places to have a landfalling hurricane. That doesn't mean they will get one, they could get lucky suddenly, but the threat is there as we are in a similar pattern to 1985 and 2012 ... years that produced Gloria and Sandy so beware.

Personally I'm packing today and on my way back to Florida for a while. My youngest son who keeps a low profile on social media unless he is posting pictures of far away places and incredible architecture is graduating from FIU with a Masters Degree in Architecture. Yes, I'm proud as he worked very hard and though we knew he could and would do it ... it is still a huge accomplishment. His older brother who is often on social media is "taking over the Compass Realty" Instagram site for the day before he sails off somewhere as Meyer boys are always flying off somewhere while their Momma is traveling the East Coast going back and forth from Raleigh to Miami. This picture below is from his wedding day as the official Mother and her son picture.

He knows Miami and it's various neighborhoods better than anyone as he was raised on Miami Beach. No one knows the best streets, places and views of Miami Beach than a Miami Beach native. He's also the 5th generation who has worked in Florida Real Estate, this is really a no-brainer when it comes to finding a good agent to sell your property or help you find the right property. If he could sell an empty lot for close to 7 Million Dollars think what he could sell your waterfront mansion for or your beautiful, much loved home on Royal Palm Avenue on Miami Beach. He lives in Coconut Grove he knows every nook, road and home with the prettiest palm trees or the most beautiful jogging path down to the bay. He's my son.