A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!
Wednesday, July 25, 2018
Watching & Waiting. Close In Drama and Strong Tropical Waves. Mid Atlantic (Baltimore to NY) Needs to Worry on This Hurricane Season. Rain Tends to Bring Canes.
The NHC may say NO NO NO
But still we watch the tropics.
Best place to watch is Spaghetti Models.
Find your favorite product of the day.
Above highlighted is....
..areas the government highlights for possible development.
As we move towards August 1st...
...things heat up.
So now is a good time to prepare.
My favorite thing to buy for Hurricane Supplies?
1 lesson from Hurricane Andrew.
I wanted coffee more than water.
Miami girl... needs her cafecito.
Starbucks makes one too.
I don't really have time today to blog but I'm blogging just the same. Why you ask ...as the tropics look so dead? They aren't dead they are in "set up mode" kind of like a possum playing dead so he conserves his energy for when he needs it.
Look at that shadow effect from the last wave.
Still there.
Took a bit bite out of SAL.
Leaves it a kinder place for the new wave.
SAL is still there but wilting a bit under the nonstop attack from one tropical wave after another, each wave juicing up the atmosphere just a bit more each day. The wind flow pattern begins to change and as the sun begins to warm up the cooler water that once was there the tropical Atlantic becomes more favorable for tropical development. Each dying wave flares up just a bit more further West as they approach South America. Eventually one, like Beryl develops but unlike Beryl it will be easier to find on satellite imagery. Contrary to hype and repetitive news stories the 2018 Atlantic Hurricane Season is not dead, not a goner and it will not succumb for a while to El Nino that really is still picking out his outfit for his big debut on the weather stage.
2018 so far.
A huge Bermuda High is outlined above.
The Bermuda High breathes much like you and I do. It has it's good days and it's weaker days and sometimes it feels unstoppable. It inches West, it slides back to the East, it retrogrades back towards the West and then it moves back a drop more; the location of the High is everything when a hurricane is moving WNW towards the Caribbean and the East Coast. If it becomes a double barrel high than places in the Gulf of Mexico need to worry more than normal. As much as we watch the waves we have to watch the High Pressure that becomes their steering current and ticket to the New World. Think of those waves like Christopher Columbus going on a voyage westward.
Two things to think on.
On rare occasions ULLs can work their way down to the surface.
Especially this year where we are used to storms like Chris.
Close up below.
As areas sit over warm water...
...they need to be watched.
Tail end of dead fronts need to be watched.
Number 2...
They go where the low pressure is.
Most basic Cliff Noes there.
They try and avoid the High.
They go where the Low Pressure is...
That is where the Low Pressure is and has been.
Mid Atlantic with record levels of rain.
The ground already soaked and soggy.
As I said on Twitter...
we hope this does not play out..
...but it could.
Currently the Mid Atlantic is a magnet for weather.
Off the coast of Africa.
Our huge wave is exiting.
Finding a friendlier environment that earlier waves.
Something to keep in mind.
This year the East Coast is at higher risk than most places to have a landfalling hurricane. That doesn't mean they will get one, they could get lucky suddenly, but the threat is there as we are in a similar pattern to 1985 and 2012 ... years that produced Gloria and Sandy so beware.
Personally I'm packing today and on my way back to Florida for a while. My youngest son who keeps a low profile on social media unless he is posting pictures of far away places and incredible architecture is graduating from FIU with a Masters Degree in Architecture. Yes, I'm proud as he worked very hard and though we knew he could and would do it ... it is still a huge accomplishment. His older brother who is often on social media is "taking over the Compass Realty" Instagram site for the day before he sails off somewhere as Meyer boys are always flying off somewhere while their Momma is traveling the East Coast going back and forth from Raleigh to Miami. This picture below is from his wedding day as the official Mother and her son picture.
He knows Miami and it's various neighborhoods better than anyone as he was raised on Miami Beach. No one knows the best streets, places and views of Miami Beach than a Miami Beach native. He's also the 5th generation who has worked in Florida Real Estate, this is really a no-brainer when it comes to finding a good agent to sell your property or help you find the right property. If he could sell an empty lot for close to 7 Million Dollars think what he could sell your waterfront mansion for or your beautiful, much loved home on Royal Palm Avenue on Miami Beach. He lives in Coconut Grove he knows every nook, road and home with the prettiest palm trees or the most beautiful jogging path down to the bay. He's my son.
Post Maria Relief to PR More Compelling Right Now Than Invest 99L... Do Your Part. Tropics May Be a Problem Again 10/7-10/8
My suggestion to the NHC, not that they really listen to me... is let's call the whole thing off. Let the NWS forecast this weather that parts of Florida are dealing with and go out, have a good Sunday and start over with a new Invest 90L when something really shows up to do work. 99L has so far been a slacker ... kind of all over the place. It's been so all over the place the models are actually OFF THE CHARTS. Rarely see that.... but look below and some of the tracks go straight off the chart... deep SW movement. See the model map below..not the models won't even stay on the page.
I get a headache just from looking at that model above.
See all those Upper Level Lows...
Cranking up.
Creates shear.
Not happening there...
Euro forms something.
In a week.
NE up over FL.
Gets stronger E of FL.
After it crosses.
GFS forms around the same place.
Goes wide left to Tex Mex.
So yes something may develop in a week and there are models that show something developing and being shunted off to one place or another but not today, not tomorrow and probably not the day after tomorrow.
1... One track shows a system going West and I mean all the way West to Tex Mex land underneath a very strong High Pressure Ridge.
2.. Another model shows the system develops and pull sup NE over Florida as an October Storm would be want to do...
As I said Friday... talking starting around 10/6 or 10/7 and definitely ramping up 10/8 and yet it's still long range and far away today. Nothing imminent and you can better spend today with your family, your pooch or cat or staring at the gold fish. Take a walk, go for a run... help collect supplies or give money to a relief organization who is actively spending the time trying to get relief to those in need. The Red Cross is always there... as are other organizations and just regular people who are working together to make a difference.
Not sure what this song means but my brother Jay will get it... so posting it and smiling. It's very simple yet complicated much like MacArthur Park with that cake in the rain. In an alternative universe this Invest developed last night into a small tropical storm named Nate and in a day or so gets picked up by the currents and become a Category 3 Hurricane and takes a slow, exhausting trip up the Interstate to cities that have not yet been directly affected by a named storm this season. Life is not about what ifs and this whole Invest has been about "what if" and it's time to pull the plug and start over in the early 90s with a new Invest. Let people go... let them enjoy their Sunday and worry on it later. Florida is used to rain... we have the best weather people in the country they got this one.
https://www.facebook.com/ChabadPR/ Chabad of Puerto Rico... trying to help distribute supplies.
Honestly Miami people are mostly worried about Puerto Rico than 99L. They are aware there is debris that needs to be picked up but their priorities are pretty straight and trying to help those who got hit far worse than they did. Phil Ferro from WSVN Channel 7 in Miami put this up recently. He's worried more today on Puerto Rico than he is on Invest 99L. IF things change people will worry on the piles of debris rotting moldy in the hot Florida sunshine and prepare but for now...people are honestly worried about those in Puerto Rico.
Phil Ferro Channel 7
WSVN Miami.
Tweeted this... heavy article.
Shows the real human misery.
Americans in the Caribbean.
Without food, water, electricity...
John Morales from NBC 6 Miami...
...also tweeting about things PR needs.
Disaster Relief.
Maria Recovery.
Irma Recovery.
This really is the big tropical story today.
NOT Invest 99L
My son Levi and some of his best friends and co-workers at Compass Realty have been collecting supplies to send to those in need. Having two small children himself he understands the problems parents are facing so he focused on diapers, baby wipes, children's Tylenol, medical supplies.. as well as water, canned soup, tuna and whatever they can get to those who need. Trust me.. my son Levi can get diapers into a war zone... he's had experience and knows how to take control. So... they collected diapers and a long list of things people need. Many people were involved. Costco (where they bought some of the diapers... donated more things) and the stuff is now on it's way to Puerto Rico and down to the Keys. Irma and Maria have left people desperate for more than having the tree debris cleaned up and as Key West is an island and for a while it was cut off from the world even the basic supplies not bought before the storm were unavailable. Key West wasn't affected like Puerto Rico (or Cudjoe Key) but they were knocked out of it for a good few weeks. Puerto Rico is the bigger concern currently and the staging center for much of the relief is in the Wynwood Section of Miami. They have the connections and ability to get the supplies in to Puerto Rico where it's needed the most and is able to be distributed best.
Costco actually gave them 13 pallets of supplies...
...that they were collecting.
Levi and his team got them to Wynwood..
..to be sent to Puerto Rico.
Everyone pitches in.
To try and make a difference.
So rather than worry on Invest 99L.
I suggest you listen to this song.
And be the change you want to see..
..in the world.
Give as you can.
Do what you can.
Worry on Invest 99L another day.
Or wonder on Invest 90L..
way down the road.
Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter
Ps.. Pretty awesome. Proud. Now y'all do your part as you can.. Thank you Levi for being you!
Going off.. allergies bothering me today. Not going to over proof this but may again later. Sorry but seen so many typos lately in major market media newspapaers online it blows me way and I wonder why bloggers who reach the audience I do worry so on a typo. Okay the degree in English probably weighs heavier on me than on many who work with large newspapers. ... PLEASE DONATE where you can...
Miami Monsoons Arrive a Bit Late .. June After a Dry May. Hurricane Season Can't Be Far Away. Localized Street Flooding and a Possible Area of Interest in the Gulf of Mexico.
Put it in motion....
Result....rain.........
Not 40 nights and 40 days.
But over the next 5 days...
Keep using watching the weather..
Nothing much to add to previous blog posts concerning the rain over South Florida. There is an area of tropical moisture left over from the remnants of Beatriz an Epac named storm. Moisture from the depth of the Caribbean as well as moisture that is congregating in the Gulf of Mexico is pumping up huge, heavy amounts of moisture over Florida. There is some localized flooding so if you live in an area prone to flooding there be puddles in the usual locations. I was of course teased that I was dawdling and playing in the puddles. In a way I was as that's what we did growing up in South Florida when it rained.
I know because I got caught in a puddle on the way to Temple on Saturday in the Grove near CocoWalk. I wove my way from my hotel room through soggy streets, strewn with pink bougainvillea blossoms lying upside down in puddles. I was in heaven as I was back in my element and doing just fine until I finally got a to a puddle that I could not jump over, walk around or find my way past. As I was wading through the water that was up to my ankles and a friend drove by they rolled down their window and took a picture and sent it to me. Waves made from cars going by were washing into local stores. Understand the Grove has streets littered with leaves, huge banyan and Chinese Almond Tree leaves that clog up the sewers that in reality just take the water out to the bay a block away. There is much to worry on regarding Sea Level Rise but this is not that as much as poor planning, clogged drains, lack of drains, monsoonal rains and over population of what was once a distant resort town down the road from Miami. When Miami went through Booms the Grove went through it's share of murder, intrigue and at a time in the 1960s when it was the Haight Ashbury of the South. A look back over time is in the link below, however currently there is building boom of beautiful, modern construction reaching high into the sky for breathtaking views. The streets wind their way about, it's hard for the water to get out. But...it does eventually. And, then the sun comes out and it is glorious!
The area in the Gulf of Mexico has a small chance to do something, a window of opportunity to get our interest. It is not the real deal as much as part and parcel of the beginning of the Hurricane Season. I met a few really nice people yesterday who it seems read my blog. They all go online and look when there is "something out there" but in truth this is when they should be thinking on Hurricanes and reading how to prepare. You need a lesson in how to shop in Publix when you get to the store when there is no more water, beer or toilet paper. Now is the time to think on what you might do if and when and to start putting away some basics you may need while waiting a week or two to get your power back on. I met a man, a very smart man, who owns property here and flew back into Miami to see for himself what a hurricane feels like. He flew in before Wilma, he wanted to see it up close and personal. In truth if you own land in Florida or live here you really need to know because it's hard to explain. It's not about standing on the beach like Jim does as the surf is pounding behind you. It's about knowing what kind of damage you will have from a Category 1 or a Category 2 storm as the pictures you generally see of total destruction are from Major Hurricanes.
If a Summer rain storm of the monsoonal kind can leave this much flooding in some areas without the addition of wind and trees coming down crashing through your sky light then imagine what a real Category 1 Hurricane would do.
http://www.publix.com/pages/publix-storm-basics
As for me I'm involved in some heavy family dynamics. My son is having a 3rd birthday party for my grandson today that is an epic birthday in Orthodox Jewish circles as we "cut his hair" for the first time. His hair is long, it ripples in curls when let down and that will change soon. There's pizza involved and the local Chabad House is decorated like a Fire Station. Balloon house and Pizza, you get the idea. Later today we have a family reunion of sorts for my husband's family as cousins come in for the funeral tomorrow for his father. Such is life, enjoy the good times!
Yes, I know the local channels are playing up the possibilities however small they may be as is TWC but hey that's what they do; that's why we watch. I'll update with any information should the NHC declare an Invest or start running their own models on the area in the GOM. For now it's just rain, rain from the tropics, blessed rain for a drought stricken state and an answer to prayers by many as it was a very, very dry May.
More later, while playing in the rain please stock up on supplies as this hurricane season is forecast by the experts to be a busy one. And, many forecast tracks similar to last year when Matthew just barely missed Miami and a few had problems keeping their mojo going. This year we may not have such luck and we may have problems to think on beyond complaining the Hurricane missed us and slid up the coastline. From the Keys to the Florida Georgia Line we are all in play and cities along the GOM coastline may be in the cross hairs.
This is video online of a Miami Monsoon sort of rain. Understand we go months without heavy rain and pray for rain. It pours for a month or so in May or June and then we go back to normal. No snow, you don't need to dig out your car and scrap off the ice and we rarely get tornadoes. You can go 25 years without having a hurricane and watch them slide by and slam into North Carolina as it sticks out a bit too far into the Gulfstream. But, you always need to know how to prepare just in case. Bigger things to worry on today than a tropical landfall. Have a wonderful day! Install an App just in case you need to know if an Invest develops and I talk about it here in the blog.
http://www.hurrtracker.com/
Besos BobbiStorm
@Bobbistorm on Twitter. Follow me and give me your thoughts.
Ps If you want to buy some land here in paradise he's the best at knowing Miami as a native as he is I believe 5th generation Floridian who is in the Real Estate business. Be it Key West, Miami or is Great Great Uncle who was selling Holmes Beach in the 1920s during the Boom.... he knows the business from inside out and knows how to broker a deal when others cannot.
https://www.compass.com/agents/miami/levi-meyer/
From lots along the water to high in the sky condos to regular houses on cute little palm lined streets he's the best. I believe the highest priced rental in Coral Gables history was his a year or two back. He gets the job done! Best part of his job may be the view from the Compass Realty offices in Coconut Grove looking out on sailboats and yachts at Dinner Key. He is so definitely my son.
92 In The Shade... Summer Begins Early. Hurricane Season Can't Be Far Away
Short post on the heat.
It's hot Down South.
Florida is baking in the sunshine.
Rumors of near 100 coming ...
...though forecast is for 94.
Heard it was 104 in Texas!!!!
Hurricane Coast is baking.
That means the coastal waters warming up also!
Look at those warm colors.
A tongue of warm water...
..looping around the Gulfstream.
Another teasing, tongue in the GOM.
HOT water off the Mexican Coast.
Epac Season starts May 15th..
Watch the loop below.
Moisture in the Caribbean ...
...from an old frontal boundary.
Storms slicing across Georgia into Carolinas.
A lot going on there.
It's late and I'm on the road. In a really nice room that is clean, but stinks of some sort of Lily of the Valley, Freesia room scent that smells clean but a lot like my mother's perfume that I didn't like. I'm not a hater we just had different tastes ... I sprayed Victoria's Secrets around the room and made coffee so now it smells like the perfume counter at Nordstrom after someone spilled their Starbucks on the counter. I'm tired, I don't care. I'm somewhere I love so that's all that matters!!
Moisture is feeding up into the GOM fueling the severe storms in the Southeast. The ITCZ has begun to flow from East to West, though it's down low where it should be this time of year. A lot of orange and gold in the Caribbean, been watching that. Models are hinting at development, but you know how I feel about models and innuendo this far out. Watch the pattern, the trend and use a lot of sea salt for the long range models. Rumor has it we could get something in early May or so they say. I say "they say" as I'm not talking yet.
We drove through Jacksonville around sunset. Actually, we drove round and round looking for the right Winn Dixie that has lots of kosher wine and assorted necessities. Good news... we found it! The smoke from nearby fires was apparent. It seems there is smoke now from Central America as well reaching up into the Gulf of Mexico moving towards Florida.
Pretty but muted.
Beautiful actually in real time.
Note the low ITCZ on the map.
Note the large Low pressure system in the Atlantic.
Notice the two, huge, double barrel Highs . . .
Summer is almost here.
We have the NFL Draft.
Hurricane Season isn't far behind that...
It was very hot this afternoon while I was walking around feeling the heat and wondering why women wear leggings in 89 degree weather... Men wear their jeans no matter what, but for me 87 degrees is short skirt weather and sandals or heels if you really want to dress up. But, I digress. It's been an exhausting week in ways and yet extremely deep in thought on major life issues. Good discussions with best friends in Miami and quality time with family. One son is in La Paz so I missed his hugs while he was in the Mexican paradise, another son is leaving for Spain and London and oddly my son-in-law is on the way to Budapest tonight. This family really travels often to odd places.
I hear La Paz is stunningly beautiful in a Netanya Israel sort of way. Cliffs, tropical water, flowers, palms and mansions for the rich and possibly famous. They also get hurricanes, yet I imagine if you have enough money you can hire your own security teams and lock down a mansion tighter than Ft. Knox. http://www.bajainsider.com/article/bajas-hurricane-history
Something to think on with EPAC starting soon..
As for me I'm going to sleep soon or going to try. I've been without Cable TV so getting my news from online as my kids spend their money in different ways. Apparently only old people watch FOX, CNN and TWC because all the ads are for erectile dysfunction. Some do watch MSNBC and BBC... and they use their phone to check on the weather so who needs TV? I had to go online and find out we were in the "crosshairs" of a war with China, N Korea and possibly Putin ...who knew? Life has been good not watching the news, got to tell you...
So if it's 92 in the shade we will soon have more to think on that who is being drafted and whether aliens are going to come and save the world (really? got nothing to write on? I saw a few odd click bait stories this week, nope not clicking on them). It's a world of "Alternative Facts" these days so watch out for where you get your facts. Here on Hurricane Harbor my facts come directly from the NHC and various well respected meteorologists as well as my own knowledge that is extensive as a Hurricane Historian. You have to sift through the hype and odd online stories to get the real nuggets of information. And as always.........be #HurricaneStrong! Knowledge is power, remember that!!
http://www.weather.gov/wrn/hurricane-preparedness
Check out these hashtags below and follow the suggestions from the NHC please.
#Itonlytakesone
#hurricanestrong
Going off... going to rest. Let's hope the world keeps on spinning this week. I need a good rest (selfishly said) and regroup before we end up back in South Florida again soon. I'll be there start of the hurricane season for a family party for my grandson and maybe Mother's Day and maybe sooner if things don't get better for my father-in-law but as always life goes on and we roll with the punches and if a storm comes along we clean up and build it stronger.
Love you all...
Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter
Ps.. I'll deal with whoever the Fins drafted tomorrow.
Filmed in the Florida Keys... worth watching again sometime. Okay, not sure I ever watched it. Have to put it on my to do list.
Invest in paradise in Miami, it's a beautiful place to live. I'll be posting on that soon in this blog. Amazingly beautiful new construction, shiny city on the bay with a constant breeze and that breeze washes away worries, fears and tension. Fountain of Youth.... really.
Cold Winter. Miami Awaits. South of the Freeze Line. Or Buy Snow Boots! Compass Realty
Today is the day when people on the East Coast ponder buying that pair of snow boots they have been wanting but were waiting for after Holiday sales. There's rumors of snow...
Note Winter's song is now heard all the way through North Florida.
South Florida is holding out as always.
See the oranges by South Florida.
They are reminiscent of Julia Tuttle's oranges.
Groves in Miami weren't destroyed by the Hard Freeze of 1894-95.
Julia Tuttle was said to have sent Old Henry Flagler oranges.
The oranges were alive... blossoms fresh.
The crop wasn't destroyed.
Henry who is better known for hotels and railroads...
...was making money on the agriculture boom in Florida.
The first boom being the farming boom.
Then the Real Estate Boom that busted the farming boom.
Coral Gables was originally Orange Groves.
Thus the name... Coral Gables.
He build houses with coral gables and coral roof tiles.
But the orange groves were mowed down for the housing boom.
You win some you lose some.
In Downtown Miami they sold oranges to tourists.
My mother's best friend's mother had a juicing stand.
Across from the Olympic Theater on Miami's Main Street.
Tourists, Sailors, Cubans up from Havana shopping.
All came to get fresh squeezed orange juice.
Stores sold orange perfume to tourists.
My Great Aunt got married with a bouquet of Orange Blossoms.
Really... it was all the rage back then.
She lived in Tampa, but same thing.
Orange Groves brought the money rolling in.
Then came the Orange Bowl Parade.
The Jr. Orange Bowl Parade is alive in Coral Gables.
Of course...
The Orange Bowl Game Still lives...
Oranges helped make Miami what it is..
Go figure.
Try and find an orange tree anymore...
We had one in our backyard. Not easy to climb.
And we got in trouble for climbing it..
So yes Julia Tuttle knew the value of being south of the freeze line.
One of my favorite people is my good friend Historian Paul George.
You might want to sit a spell and listen a bit.
Paul's favorite History Tour is the City Cemetery.
Okay he is born on Halloween so this shouldn't be a surprise.
Listen to "Julia" tell the story in "her" words :)
That's the land she bought.
The beautiful hotel.
Prime Real Estate.
Now if you think on that a bit...
We got from there to here....
What a city.
So while watching that frost line move South....
...and the temperatures drop deeper and deeper down.
Look around and wonder if you really, really like the Seasons.
Or would you rather fly South to Miami.
Orange has given way to white.
White fancy new Spec Houses.
White buildings with touches of playful color.
White beaches, blue water.
Whether you are in Coconut Grove (incredible)
Miami Beach...love it!
Or just plain old Miami..
Usually, but not always, the freeze line is in the rear view mirror.
Location: Miami, Raleigh, Crown Heights, Florida, United States
Weather Historian. Studied meteorology and geography at FIU. Been quoted in Wall Street Journal, Washington Post & everywhere else... Lecturer, stormchaser, writer, dancer. If it's tropical it's topical ... covering the weather & musing on life. Follow me on Twitter @ https://twitter.com/#!/BobbiStorm