Florida Trof.. Invest 99L & the ULL ... Caribbean Wave Flaring Up Near Where Franklin Began...Franklin Over Mexico Out of the Picture.

Today is a day to wait and watch.

A lot going on but much of it is subtle.

First off you can see Franklin exiting our world and moving rapidly towards the Eastern Pacific. The GOM is free of action today, although the Northern Gulf of Mexico coast shows continued convection creating localized flooding problems. To the immediate East of South Florida is a trough of low pressure that is moving NW along the coast of Florida and it needs to be watched for a few reasons. ESE of the Florida blob is the ongoing saga of Invest 99L and the ULL that is stuck like glue to it. And, lastly worth mentioning a wave that has moved into the Eastern Caribbean is flaring up and traveling the same back roads that 90L did before it became Franklin. Looking back at where Franklin began you can see why I watch any area that shows increased convection in that part of the Caribbean with the current set up. The recent past is often prologue to the near term future weather wise. Spoiler alert the yellow area became Franklin. The red area did not become Franklin.

Moving on to a color water vapor loop below that shows a different perspective.

The wonderful water vapor loop above takes us deeper into the structure of the moist atmosphere as well as showing the Upper Level Lows and the dry high regions. Note the wave in the Eastern Carib is followed by another wave from our 2017 Cabo Verde Wave Train. Going back to August 3rd when we were given a bright red area off the coast of Africa and yellow area appeared in the Caribbean as a possible area of formation.  You can also see the Upper Level Low really well in this loop. It twists, enhancing rainfall in 99L and then it chokes if off again. 

And surprises have been common this year and last year so I see no reason to ignore the possibility of more popping up close in creating home grown systems. Home grown from waves that traveled far but couldn't get it together until they got closer to land. That's problematic as the closer they get to land the harder it is for them to become fish storms. Yesterday the NHC posted a yellow circle off the coast of Florida in the Bahamas. Art imitates life as a weak area of vorticity spun up near the Bahamas and made a face at the forecasters in South Florida at the NHC. You can see below and judge for yourself. Is that a wink, a smile or is it gritting it's teeth there below?

For South Florida this enhances the rainfall totals and may cause some locally heavy flooding, but it's just another day in a tropical paradise where it rains often this time of year; especially this particular year. Despite a strong high Miami has been in the flow for monsoonal type of rainstorms way past the usual prime time for Miami Monsoons in May, June and early July. August begins normally to dry out but time will tell this year. 

The NWS last night in Miami talked on it with the sound of "yeah whatever, we are used to this" and that's probably true. This discussion is shown above, though this morning they did warn on rip tides and pop up strong storms. As this area it is moving WNW to NW it could cause problems up the way. And Chick Jacobs knows up the way as in Carolina weather as in specifically the Sandhills. Google it unless you play golf in which case I'm sure you know where it is... 

A good link to use for anything Florida is below. It has a great radar site and I suggest you hold onto that link as it's valuable during the Hurricane Season or any time of year if you live in Florida. And before it affects the Carolina's weather let's look at South Florida. Picture it sliding up the coast much like the system that Julia formed from last year.

Rain forecast for today in Florida.

Messy... very messy.

https://www.sfwmd.gov/weather-radar/current-weather-conditions

Speaking of links and Tropical Storm Julia. In September of 2016 the NHC put up an Invest for an area just off the coast of South Florida and added a circle on their map highlighting concern. Then they pulled the Invest. Then they put it back up and eventually it evolved into Tropical Storm Julia. It had low odds and they pretty much kept saying "yeah we see it" and everyone was as always looking beyond out into the Atlantic at a westbound tropical wave. I was pretty sure something would form and decided to go down to Florida for my son's wedding at a time we could intercept it and see some tropical weather along the way. I wasn't disappointed. The drive through Georgia into Florida was intense and in Jacksonville tropical storm conditions definitely existed, the hotel we stayed in on Ormond Beach had some flooding in the oceanfront rooms. The little yellow circle off of Florida last year was ignored for waves that had better model support until Julia crawled onto the beaches of North Florida and the NHC called it a Tropical Storm over land. The end result might be different with this area, but the set up is similar. See below.

September 2016 below.

Old post concerning Florida rain and tropical waves.

Link below:

http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/2016/09/tropical-rains-florida-discussion.html

Fast forward to today.

Yellow X in the same spot as last year.

Low chances... a nod to it's presence.

Weak sign of vorticity.

Close up view of the area 

It does have a definitive twist on radar.

Below you can see the whole wide picture.

As the sunrises over the world

So let's go back to the beginning.

I said at the top today is a day to wait and watch.

But expect surprises as this has been the trend this year.

And to some degree last year.

Struggling waves, close in surprises.

99L is indeed dancing with the ULL.

The ULL won't let go.

If 99L can get away from the ULL.

The ULL will oddly help it breathe.

But until then they are entwined.

Again more worried on down the road than now.

At some point the road ends. 

Where an when?

Models below.

It is now where we thought it needed to be to do something.

Most believe now that this double entity known as 99L...

Will get caught up in the frontal boundary up the way.

Sort of a three some now and as usual the front wins out.

Time will tell.

Stay tuned.

Watch and wait.

If you are in the Carolinas enjoy the cool temps.

Mid 60s in Raleigh this morning.

Going up to mid 80s :)

Keep watching 99L and the ULL...

And don't ignore the area off of Florida.

As this year is the year of surprises close in..

..again.

AGAIN watch them dance in the loop below.

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter

Ps... I know you want to know what's over Africa. Kind of quiet. Will tropical weather affect watching the eclipse on the 21st of August? Stay tuned. And watch waves that flare up later rather than sooner.

Remnants of Emily ... A TD at 11 AM .. A Look Back at Beth & Julia & Arthur

Basically Emily is hanging on as a Tropical Depression.

The morning visible shows her circulation well.

Sliding along the coast over warm water.

Details below with a good map.

The loop above is a floater loop and it is there as long as the floater is there. Someone asked me recently what a floater is and I'm sorry on assuming most people know. Never assume.. so it's basically a temporary up close satellite view that is there to study the system better in it's development and through it's lifetime. If a system doesn't form and never gets past the Invest stage then the floater quietly disappears. If the Invest looks better down the road, it's put back up. Before we could make our loops bigger on our cell phones and iPads it was invaluable. It's still invaluable in ways and when one is introduced it's a sign to take the Invest area more seriously. A brief explanation is at the bottom on the actual site. Thanks for asking!

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters.html

Again the faint center is to the left of the convection.

The convection is sheared off to the right as seen above.

I've zoomed in for you below:

Brief update on Tropical Depression Emily and the Atlantic Waves. Basically a quick "State of the Tropics" this Tuesday Afternoon. I will update later today in real time at the top if anything changes or even gets interesting. And, as per 5 AM Discussion from the NHC they may stop following TD Emily sooner rather than later if they feel her center has become  "quite elongated" and are no longer forecasting redevelopment down the forecast track. That said, they didn't do a bang up job of forecasting the sudden formation of Emily from a brief lived Invest so as she is prone to surprising us it's worth watching and waiting to see what happens in real time. To be honest, systems like this that spring up just before land or over land are hardest to figure in advance. There's very little "wind history" and the satellite signature is weak. Again, TS Emily was said to be a "small tropical cyclone" attached to a front and small systems do spin up faster than huge lumbering tropical waves.

At 11 AM the Discussion explained that they were hesitant to drop advisories as Emily has showed a brief flare up of thunderstorm activity near the  low level center and basically it's a wait and see game going on. Waiting to see if Emily wraps enough convection, stays a few steps ahead of the next cold front and strengthens some what off coast. Often, but not regularly, weak systems flare up further up the road in the North Atlantic and come back to life. Sometimes the pressures do not drop significantly but because of the deferential between extreme High Pressure nearby they look healthier than you would think otherwise. I've seen some strange things in that part of the Atlantic. For now wind shear is keeping it in check, while warm water temperatures are fueling it. Remember the other day I posted warm water temperatures that are pooling off the East Coast. That old image is below from about a week ago. About a week ago models began to sniff out a coastal low forming where TD Emily is currently.  She is most definitely worth watching, but I don't expect much but it's possible.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT1+shtml/011440.shtml?

The link to the 11 AM discussion from the NHC is above regarding Emily's possible future.

Now for some Hurricane History as it relates to Emily.

Hurricane Arthur was the last July Hurricane in the Atlantic Ocean. Note the tweet below by Phillip Klotzbach who knows hurricane history better than anyone.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Arthur

Nice long tracker with a similar track as the one shown for Emily.

Time will tell tell on Emily. But patterns exist.

I was in NY when Arthur passed off shore. An interesting day while in NY for my daughter's wedding.

http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/2014/07/flooding-beach-erosion-power-outages.html. Last Atlantic Hurricane in July. Something to think on...

Last year we had Tropical Storm Julia form over land and move steadily along out performing the NHC forecast from the beginning to the end of her interesting trip NE. That track is shown below.

https://weather.com/news/news/julia-flooding-virginia-north-carolina

http://www.news-journalonline.com/news/20160913/tropical-storm-julia-to-leave-behind-more-rain-wind

I suppose they re-evaluated it as I was there and it created very stormy conditions for the Daytona Beach area which is far to the South of where they mark the official start of Julia's track. I was there when Julia formed, I remember it very well.  Julia was famous or infamous for forming over land. It was a system that had been marginalized until it proved itself in real time. An erratic track, however far to the North of the actual track there was coastal flooding from South Carolina up to Virginia Beach and flooding prone Norfolk Virginia. The flooding was said to be from Julia's remnant circulation. Yeah, it was weather connected to Julia, it would not have happened without Julia being there so in my opinion they should own that and not pretend it barely had any impact. Knowing it was going to form I planned a trip South around it, hoping to intercept it and chase a bit and for me Julia was fun. Fun as in very little real damage, lots of weather and interesting display of energy seemingly out of nowhere. Again I expected it to be there, so it wasn't really a surprise. That part of NE Florida is swampy and I do believe she pulled in some energy from being over  the Low Country and Swampy areas as well as a good part of her circulation was always over water. Mathew visited the same area Julia visited earlier in the year. Again patterns exist over the short term. Remember that later in the season.  In the same way flooding from Hurricane Matthew later in the year affected the same areas, including North Carolina and Virginia, despite the cone showing Matthew pulling away and dying out far from where tremendous damage occurred. Damage that has not been repaired and many are still homeless waiting for monies to rebuild in Eastern North Carolina. Matthew is still a huge news story here in North Carolina almost a year later.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/AL112016_Julia.pdf

Worth noting the official NHC report does mention the post game flooding in Virginia far from where Julia died out in the Atlantic to the South.

 In 1971 a similar sort of storm formed to Emily or with regard to where Emily is now and that track is show below. Beth formed from an Upper Level Low that worked it's way down to the surface. The track is similar to the track for the remnants of TS Emily although it hugs the coast more and went all the way to Canada. It intensified far to the North in what is usually cold waters. Interesting system and an interesting season as most systems formed far to the North of where tropical systems usually form. As noted in the report 7 of the 12 named systems formed North of Latitude 25. For some good hurricane history read the report Robert Simpson wrote please on the 1971 Hurricane Season.

http://www.weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/1971/index.php
https://docs.lib.noaa.gov/rescue/mwr/100/mwr-100-04-0256.pdf


Note in 1971 they did not name systems over land and waited for it to emerge over the water. It swamped the Miami area with torrential rains and seriously was a personal pain in many ways. I remember it well and everyone felt as if they had gone through a tropical depression if not a Tropical Storm. Officially Miami did not see a Tropical Storm, because it formed off shore so I don't mind the new way of doing things with regard to Julia. It's more honest, as people say today, "it is what it is" .. but trust me it was a real wet, messy slap in the face in August of 1971 for me and some of my friends.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Beth

Now back to the future as Michael J Fox liked to say or do or go... I'm in a lazy mood today and didn't write late because I'm annoyed with Emily. I have kids traveling various places  today and my older daughter came into Raleigh this morning early. And, I wanted to let Emily have some time to see what she can do. I'm not annoyed with Emily... but the process that led to the upgrading her was for many of us annoying. Normally I like erring on the side of safety and upgrading a storm for a higher media awareness. It's summer and I wound't want some kid sailing out of Tampa Bay on a three hour sail and never coming back  Awareness is good, yet it's more the tepid interest early on and then the catching up with what was happening in real time that reminds me too much of Julia from last year. Hotel owners on Daytona Beach had little time to prepare and were caught unaware and had Matthew not come to visit 2016 would have been the year they remembered that Tropical Storm Julia that surprised them all. Again that area of the Florida coast is not prone to hurricanes and tropical events so they don't paranoid like watch every wave the way we do further South in Miami and the Florida Keys.

http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/2016/09/tropical-storm-julia-forms-over-florida.html

As I said in the post from last year ...tropical weather can be unpredictable even in 2016 or 2017.

So let's take a look at the tropical world today.

That's an image of the world from Goes 16

Going closer to our part of the tropics is below.

You can see the 2 west bound tropical waves at bottom right.

You can see the front somewhat diffused.

Somewhere in there is what is left of Emily.

Actually Emily has a very nice signature below.

Looking better than ever.

So don't ignore it.

Nice spin up in the GOM today.

Waves wandering westbound along with SAL

A cold front will move approach but is not forecast to get into the GOM.

Keep watching.

Besos BobbiStorm

Follow me on Twitter @bobbistorm

Ps.. Again I'll update at the top if anything changes later today..

What's Spinning in the Tropics Tuesday Morning? XTD4? African Waves? Caribbean Convection? ULL Steals the Show..

Sunrise over the Atlantic Ocean on Visible Imagery

It's really such a beautiful world.

Watching the water vapor loop is a good way to enjoy it.

You an see all the patterns and ribbons of convection.

You can see the highs and the lows.

And when looking for rotation in the tropics.

The ULL in the Atlantic Steals the show.

Another view above with some teal blues thrown in.

It just spins and spins.

It's got XTD4 on a tight lease.

Frontal boundaries weak as they may be moving East.

Then they sort of stall out creating flooding rains.

The ULL in the Atlantic deserves an award today.

Sparing South Florida and East Coast from model madness.

And if ULL was not there those models may have been right.

Note the image below..

ULL has XTD4 on a leash.

It's going to go West.

As a weak tropical disturbance that wants to be a TD again.

What will be with the ULL?

Can't say. It's been around for longer than normal.

Models up on www.spaghettimodels.com

Doubtful any recon will go in today unless something really unusual happens. But the NHC is a fluid sort of place that goes into action when needed to protect the people as that is there job. There is a floater up on XTD4 and it's easy to monitor there as well as NRL which is currently still up. But really nothing is happening and that is thanks to the ULL that the models didn't seem to sniff out as well as they should have it seems. Models did get the location exactly right days ago, possibly weeks ago. And again the Euro beat the GFS and the rest of the pack. Euro showed a weak disturbance not formed in the spot where it is currently. It showed a weak low pressure area approaching Florida with various solutions time wise and placement wise. GFS had other ideas as shown below from an old blog post.

The Euro often showed a tropical disturbance.

A bubble in the force of the Bermuda High.

The GFS showed a stronger systems.

Weak systems go West and at this point XTD4 may do Cuba.

Or South Florida.

Or it may somehow make it into the GOM.

It's an early Pre-Season Drama.

Oddly this July is filled with drama.

He said, she said, "No I didn't say that!"

Locally Miamians are praying the rumors are true...

Then there's the Kremlin drama... 

Then there's Facebook putting out this message..

...at the top of everyone's feed this morning.

Seriously why would Will Smith's son friend you?

And in the tropics the plug has been pulled on the African Wave.

Of course if something happens it will be back.

Models for XTD4 shown below.

Looks bound for the Florida Straits.

Miami should have enhanced rainfall.

Hope it speaks Spanish..

XTD4 is basically a conundrum.

More so as it did not totally die.

As it has held on it's a conundrum.

The models made it a bigger conundrum.

Word for the day: conundrum ;)

It is a Tropical Disturbance.

A mass of tropical weather moving together.

More than a wave, not a Tropical Depression.

Wave axis with vorticity 

Note the shadow swirl on the N coast of Hispaniola 

Definition below:

Part of a larger definition.

Stages of Hurricane Formation.

Tropical Disturbance is heads up but not there yet.

XTD4 would be a good example.

Old Tweet but still good thoughts.

Just keep an eye on it.......

Watching tropics is locational.

How we watch on E coast is different from GOM..

Lastly from Twitter I'm posting this one for a reason.

Note the small blob of convection over Miami below.

Miami has had flare ups frequently such as this.

Should XTD4 go there it would be messy.

See video below of parking lots flooded again.

Again remember they paved a swamp to build Aventura.

A swamp filled with mangroves by the bay.

That said it's a nice place to live, dine or shop!

See beautiful :)

Tropical ...

It's all about location. 

The location and history of tropical activity makes us watch.

We will talk about the African waves later this week.

Still there we just aren't talking about it.

NHC back to "show me the money honey" attitude.

I always liked the wave behind the one that was highlighted.

Bigger, nicer, better center. Just my thoughts.

Upper left XTD4.

So watch the videos of some storms that came together fast in that zone.

And have a wonderful day today!

Enjoy the drama in the news or go out and shop til you drop!

Unless you want to stay home and shop on Amazon.

Work, live, love and be happy.

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter

Ps It's very quiet on Twitter today. XTD4 & African Wave in Dog House.

The GFS model is in the process of an official upgrade.

That's why we been watching the Para GFS that's performed better.

Current GFS is on life support along with XTD4.

Stay tuned.

Keep reading if you want about why I posted these videos.

They show what has happened in the past.

Disclaimer .. Reminder (like Facebook..)...

XTD4 Wave is NOT expected to develop.

But other waves in that area have in the past.

So here's a bit of Hurricane History for y'all.

Current image of Gulfstream water temperatures.

Small storms like Tropical Storm Julia.

Bigger storms like Hurricane Katrina...

Again I'm taking a look back today at the formation of a few systems in this zone that have formed into storms in the past. It is worth remembering many never form and rain themselves out over South Florida and flood places like the parking lots in Aventura Mall and life goes on. 

This "zone" is prone to weak, wandering tropical waves spinning up fast and coming together over the warm waters of the Gulfstream. The key here being this happens when OTHER factors are in place and currently we do not have those factors holding out hope for XTD4 a "system" that is moving West. XTD4 is basically a "tropical disturbance" a term not so in vogue these days. It's more than a wave and but not a tropical depression. In this case it's more like a "Has Been... wannabe again" wave that never totally had it's mojo and lost what mojo it had and yet doesn't totally go away. Often when a TD unravels and fades away it's goes away. Then you have the ones that don't die completely and Zombie like spin up again. And often over the very warm Gulfstream they can spin up fast as if they form a center the water below is hot tropical fuel for storms. Fast spin up is especially common in "small systems" and XTD4 has been a small system from the get go so we continue watching where it goes. It's called "monitoring" vs tracking as we don't have exact coordinates or advisories. At any given hour it flares up, flares down and that is a visual explanation of a wave. Think of a "wave" at a football game that the fans do for the cameras. 

Aventura Mall in June 2013 with it's often flooded parking lot.

Most likely rainfall enhanced by TS Andrea moving away.

June in Miami means rain.... lot's of it.

And then the sun comes out again.

It's a tropical kind of place.

And before you start talking on GW and Miami sinking..

Aventura Mall was built on top of a swampy piece of land...

...adjacent to Biscayne Bay.

The land was about as low as it gets.

Fill filled in the low parts.

A massive city was built on top of it.

I'd love to be at Aventura Mall today.

Just my mood... 

My kids live behind the Mall by the Golf Course.

It's a paradise and sometimes it has it's moments.

Friday might be one of those moments.

For Mike and others..