Remnants of Emily ... A TD at 11 AM .. A Look Back at Beth & Julia & Arthur

Basically Emily is hanging on as a Tropical Depression.

The morning visible shows her circulation well.

Sliding along the coast over warm water.

Details below with a good map.

The loop above is a floater loop and it is there as long as the floater is there. Someone asked me recently what a floater is and I'm sorry on assuming most people know. Never assume.. so it's basically a temporary up close satellite view that is there to study the system better in it's development and through it's lifetime. If a system doesn't form and never gets past the Invest stage then the floater quietly disappears. If the Invest looks better down the road, it's put back up. Before we could make our loops bigger on our cell phones and iPads it was invaluable. It's still invaluable in ways and when one is introduced it's a sign to take the Invest area more seriously. A brief explanation is at the bottom on the actual site. Thanks for asking!

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters.html

Again the faint center is to the left of the convection.

The convection is sheared off to the right as seen above.

I've zoomed in for you below:

Brief update on Tropical Depression Emily and the Atlantic Waves. Basically a quick "State of the Tropics" this Tuesday Afternoon. I will update later today in real time at the top if anything changes or even gets interesting. And, as per 5 AM Discussion from the NHC they may stop following TD Emily sooner rather than later if they feel her center has become  "quite elongated" and are no longer forecasting redevelopment down the forecast track. That said, they didn't do a bang up job of forecasting the sudden formation of Emily from a brief lived Invest so as she is prone to surprising us it's worth watching and waiting to see what happens in real time. To be honest, systems like this that spring up just before land or over land are hardest to figure in advance. There's very little "wind history" and the satellite signature is weak. Again, TS Emily was said to be a "small tropical cyclone" attached to a front and small systems do spin up faster than huge lumbering tropical waves.

At 11 AM the Discussion explained that they were hesitant to drop advisories as Emily has showed a brief flare up of thunderstorm activity near the  low level center and basically it's a wait and see game going on. Waiting to see if Emily wraps enough convection, stays a few steps ahead of the next cold front and strengthens some what off coast. Often, but not regularly, weak systems flare up further up the road in the North Atlantic and come back to life. Sometimes the pressures do not drop significantly but because of the deferential between extreme High Pressure nearby they look healthier than you would think otherwise. I've seen some strange things in that part of the Atlantic. For now wind shear is keeping it in check, while warm water temperatures are fueling it. Remember the other day I posted warm water temperatures that are pooling off the East Coast. That old image is below from about a week ago. About a week ago models began to sniff out a coastal low forming where TD Emily is currently.  She is most definitely worth watching, but I don't expect much but it's possible.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT1+shtml/011440.shtml?

The link to the 11 AM discussion from the NHC is above regarding Emily's possible future.

Now for some Hurricane History as it relates to Emily.

Hurricane Arthur was the last July Hurricane in the Atlantic Ocean. Note the tweet below by Phillip Klotzbach who knows hurricane history better than anyone.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Arthur

Nice long tracker with a similar track as the one shown for Emily.

Time will tell tell on Emily. But patterns exist.

I was in NY when Arthur passed off shore. An interesting day while in NY for my daughter's wedding.

http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/2014/07/flooding-beach-erosion-power-outages.html. Last Atlantic Hurricane in July. Something to think on...

Last year we had Tropical Storm Julia form over land and move steadily along out performing the NHC forecast from the beginning to the end of her interesting trip NE. That track is shown below.

https://weather.com/news/news/julia-flooding-virginia-north-carolina

http://www.news-journalonline.com/news/20160913/tropical-storm-julia-to-leave-behind-more-rain-wind

I suppose they re-evaluated it as I was there and it created very stormy conditions for the Daytona Beach area which is far to the South of where they mark the official start of Julia's track. I was there when Julia formed, I remember it very well.  Julia was famous or infamous for forming over land. It was a system that had been marginalized until it proved itself in real time. An erratic track, however far to the North of the actual track there was coastal flooding from South Carolina up to Virginia Beach and flooding prone Norfolk Virginia. The flooding was said to be from Julia's remnant circulation. Yeah, it was weather connected to Julia, it would not have happened without Julia being there so in my opinion they should own that and not pretend it barely had any impact. Knowing it was going to form I planned a trip South around it, hoping to intercept it and chase a bit and for me Julia was fun. Fun as in very little real damage, lots of weather and interesting display of energy seemingly out of nowhere. Again I expected it to be there, so it wasn't really a surprise. That part of NE Florida is swampy and I do believe she pulled in some energy from being over  the Low Country and Swampy areas as well as a good part of her circulation was always over water. Mathew visited the same area Julia visited earlier in the year. Again patterns exist over the short term. Remember that later in the season.  In the same way flooding from Hurricane Matthew later in the year affected the same areas, including North Carolina and Virginia, despite the cone showing Matthew pulling away and dying out far from where tremendous damage occurred. Damage that has not been repaired and many are still homeless waiting for monies to rebuild in Eastern North Carolina. Matthew is still a huge news story here in North Carolina almost a year later.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/AL112016_Julia.pdf

Worth noting the official NHC report does mention the post game flooding in Virginia far from where Julia died out in the Atlantic to the South.

 In 1971 a similar sort of storm formed to Emily or with regard to where Emily is now and that track is show below. Beth formed from an Upper Level Low that worked it's way down to the surface. The track is similar to the track for the remnants of TS Emily although it hugs the coast more and went all the way to Canada. It intensified far to the North in what is usually cold waters. Interesting system and an interesting season as most systems formed far to the North of where tropical systems usually form. As noted in the report 7 of the 12 named systems formed North of Latitude 25. For some good hurricane history read the report Robert Simpson wrote please on the 1971 Hurricane Season.

http://www.weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/1971/index.php
https://docs.lib.noaa.gov/rescue/mwr/100/mwr-100-04-0256.pdf


Note in 1971 they did not name systems over land and waited for it to emerge over the water. It swamped the Miami area with torrential rains and seriously was a personal pain in many ways. I remember it well and everyone felt as if they had gone through a tropical depression if not a Tropical Storm. Officially Miami did not see a Tropical Storm, because it formed off shore so I don't mind the new way of doing things with regard to Julia. It's more honest, as people say today, "it is what it is" .. but trust me it was a real wet, messy slap in the face in August of 1971 for me and some of my friends.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Beth

Now back to the future as Michael J Fox liked to say or do or go... I'm in a lazy mood today and didn't write late because I'm annoyed with Emily. I have kids traveling various places  today and my older daughter came into Raleigh this morning early. And, I wanted to let Emily have some time to see what she can do. I'm not annoyed with Emily... but the process that led to the upgrading her was for many of us annoying. Normally I like erring on the side of safety and upgrading a storm for a higher media awareness. It's summer and I wound't want some kid sailing out of Tampa Bay on a three hour sail and never coming back  Awareness is good, yet it's more the tepid interest early on and then the catching up with what was happening in real time that reminds me too much of Julia from last year. Hotel owners on Daytona Beach had little time to prepare and were caught unaware and had Matthew not come to visit 2016 would have been the year they remembered that Tropical Storm Julia that surprised them all. Again that area of the Florida coast is not prone to hurricanes and tropical events so they don't paranoid like watch every wave the way we do further South in Miami and the Florida Keys.

http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/2016/09/tropical-storm-julia-forms-over-florida.html

As I said in the post from last year ...tropical weather can be unpredictable even in 2016 or 2017.

So let's take a look at the tropical world today.

That's an image of the world from Goes 16

Going closer to our part of the tropics is below.

You can see the 2 west bound tropical waves at bottom right.

You can see the front somewhat diffused.

Somewhere in there is what is left of Emily.

Actually Emily has a very nice signature below.

Looking better than ever.

So don't ignore it.

Nice spin up in the GOM today.

Waves wandering westbound along with SAL

A cold front will move approach but is not forecast to get into the GOM.

Keep watching.

Besos BobbiStorm

Follow me on Twitter @bobbistorm

Ps.. Again I'll update at the top if anything changes later today..

UPDATED TS Emily Es No Mas. DEAD. TDish.... Stay tuned.... Makes Landfall on Anna Maria Island ... Tampa Bay. Weather is All Over South Florida. Need to Watch Out for Tornadoes That Could Spin Up and Localized Flooding.

Going to be brief here. Really.

Emily es no mas.

That means she is no more.

Newcomers to Florida need to learn some Spanish.

Newcomers to Florida need to know this was not really a TS.

Perhaps for a short, brief time this morning .. maybe.

The NHC made that call so it's "official"

So "Emily" Like "Cindy" is on the books.

And "Emily" like "Cindy" made landfall.

And "Emily" was downgraded.

I'm going to say what Larry Cosgrove said this morning to me. "Larry Cosgrove "TD 6" is actually an MCS along a cold front moving through Central Florida."  I don't make the call I just write here and disseminate information, in my own way, that the NHC has introduced, designated or upgraded. Even if I disagree and Lord knows old timers here know I often have been vocal in disagreeing. Often some west bound tropical wave that almost had an eye, banding and outflow was not upgraded and I was upset. But never have I seen anything like this that I can remember.  But as the stupid saying goes... "it is what is is" so it was Emily. 

Now it is worth saying that Emily may redevelop in the Atlantic around the Gulfstream as several models have proposed as a solution to the Invest that was.. The other day I said it showed a tantalizing solution and that is what I was talking about. That is why the Raleigh weather is covering Emily this afternoon with regard to it's effect on NC beaches in several days. Anything from stronger rip tides to more is a question until we see for sure what the remnants of Emily do after leaving Florida.

It is worth mentioning there was some localized flooding, a tree fell on a house where people lived and other assorted weather phenomenon associated with what might have briefly been a Tropical Depression embedded into a frontal boundary that wasn't even dead yet. Oh and Miami predictably got the worst of it weather wise and the wicked weather did make it into the Florida Keys as I said it would.

Rather than totally blast the NHC for upgrading a front to depression status let alone giving it the name Emily, that at this rate will remain a tropical name forever, I'll just say it's good to be able to joke around and talk with friends. And, I value their input tremendously. Larry Cosgrove is incredible in his grasp of global weather and intricate geography as well as obviously weather of all kind. Jim Williams is another one I respect tremendously. Friends I've met such as "@Crankyweatherguy" on Twitter show consistency and a depth of understanding complicated weather. Friends like Cody know what they are talking about and are fun to talk about... DaBuh, Sue... and never last but always high up there Mike. So many I respect such as Rob from Crown Weather and we all do what we do in a different way and help people understand what is going on. Nothing personal the people at the NHC are incredible, some are my friends, but their official package can be wanting sometimes especially these days.  New innovations have been good, but well .. let's just leave it here.. before i go there. It was a low... but one of the weakest and shortest lived Tropical Storms I have ever seen. I practically live at Spaghetti Models these days and once upon a time I used to practically live on the NHC site. That says a lot.. and I know they are trying. 

Can we just wake up tomorrow like that old Dallas Season when the previous season was just a bad dream. 

More so what really annoys me is they pull a misplaced yellow circle from the main page while covering "Tropical Storm Emily" which was basically a front with a small attached vortex and wicked weather.  Expect both to come back. A new wave coming off of Africa is a contender to try and make it past Sheriff SAL and the wave that fell apart has pulled itself together and is still chugging along without a yellow circle.  There is more disarray currently in how the NHC is doing things than there is at the White House and well... you know how that's been going. We like living by guidelines and rules when dealing with Tropical entities and explaining that to the public. Note to public in Tampa you haven't seen nothing if you think that's a real Tropical Storm. 

Continue to watch the tropics for more developments.

If you remember there was a Low to the East of Florida.

"Emily" may be hopping ENE to that low.

Transferring energy ... being kind here.

And the models did develop the Invest there previously.

I'll do a normal update tomorrow.

* * * 

If you slept late you can continue reading what happened today..

Tropical Storm Emily made landfall at Anna Maria Island.

For those of you not familiar with that spot...

..whose family didn't help develop and sell lots there in the 1920s.

It juts out there and at the mouth to Tampa Bay.

A real paradise on a day there is no Emily.

Well if you like stormy weather today would be the day!

Up close view of Emily from NRL

You can see it's curling up some and asserting itself.

The front is to the South and still pushing South.

Going to give this one to Mike as he's on top of it.

Well I suppose Emily is on top of Mike.

You can see banding that shows up on radar.

In those bands there could be waterspouts or tornadoes.

So just because it's a weak tropical storm don't count it out.

Another view of the track is shown below.

That's the Canadian Hurricane Center's track map.

Why are they tracking Emily?

It will impact areas near Canada down the road.

Currently it's moving at 9 MPH 

It is not "barreling" as I've heard it said on TV today.

I suppose that's sort of a literary license.

The front has pretty much stalled out.

Steering currents are there but weak.

It is not barreling anywhere.

Movement is East at 9 MPH.

Again this is a mute point as it's weather is moving everywhere.

Winds 45 MPH at the surface.

Worth point out there are stronger winds higher up.

If those winds can work their way down to the surface.

If... always an IF with regard to tropical entities.

The track and forecast strength intensity is basically an extrapolation of the previous forecast package so not much to say on that. Again . The explanation for the upgrade and the current condition of TS Emily is explained in the 11 AM Discussion from the NHC that you can read below. I highlighted the part that was most important.

The concerns here are localized flooding far from the center of Tropical Storm Emily as the "weather mass" has been sheared away to the South and has already spread across SE Florida. This set up kind of reminds me of Irene in 1999 that was headed towards Naples and her weather went right to the SE coast of Florida swamping Miami with tropical rains, flooding and some power outages. I don't expect that level of intensity in the Miami, Broward and Palm Beach area but this weather is moving as I type down into Monroe County. So while the "center" may come ashore near Tampa Bay it's weather is everywhere.

And another concern I have is that this sort of Tropical Storm in this area that is connected still to a frontal boundary often affects this part of Florida in October and November and they are prone to spinning up tornadoes. This set up is a bit different but similar enough to be concerned. And a bigger concern is the lack of concern as many have not heard about the upgrade and as they don't see a well defined storm they think the threat for any danger is minimal. It's way minimal than a Cat 3 Hurricane or even a Cat 1, however Florida often gets tornadoes as tropical systems cross the state from west to east. A good example of this was Tropical Storm Josephine in 1996.

Wrong time of year.

Formation involved a front.

Similar track.

Worth remembering.

At least 16 tornadoes formed from Josephine.

And far away from Emily in Miami the weather is volatile.

And cooler! First time they have not reached 90 in a while.

My friend posted this earlier from today on Facebook.

My brother sent me this image earlier from Miami.

So from Tampa to Melbourne...

From Miami down to the Florida Keys.

Everyone is in it because of Emily.

And note how far East the warning have moved below:

After crossing Florida Emily is forecast to regain strength.

As a minimal Tropical Storm and follow the models out to sea.

However, the slightest variance could bring it close to NE NC.

As in Outer Banks need to keep watching.

The power is sadly still out there now.

Read previous posts as a cable was damaged ..

...not a good story, a clearly marked cable.

So what is the take away here. At any point a tornado could spin up. There was a warning up earlier. The Sunshine Skyway Bridge is closed as they have experienced Tropical Storm Force winds. This was sent to me on Twitter earlier. Embedded in Emily are areas of strong, isolated weather. I haven't had a chance to check the details, but it shows a nice image of where and when Emily made landfall. Anna Maria Island, near Holmes Beach at the mouth of Tampa Bay.

Below shows a wide view

My wave out in the Atlantic that I've been watching is still there.

So watch Emily today but don't rule out that wave.

Sooner or LATER...it could spin up into something.

Hey no one thought last night we would have Emily today.

Don't say I didn't warn ya... 

Waves in search of warm water and lighter shear may be here soon.

As waves or something more.

Stay tuned.

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter

Ps.. Oddly today is the anniversary of My Aunt Ada's passing. Ada was named after her mother Ida Ada who lived in Tampa. My Grandparents are buried in Tampa in the Old Jewish Cemetery there. My Great Uncle was involved in the early sales of both Holmes Beach and Anna Maria Island properties. Aunt Ada kept three of those lots for years until they were eventually sold. So... here's to Aunt Ada... and Uncle Jake and Uncle Morris who helped sell property there in the Roaring 20s. Actually I believe my Great Grandmother used to picnic there with family so... here's a nice view of Anna Maria Island's history and how it looks today. Then as now it's always been paradise and there seems some odd karma in this today. Luckily it's a very weak tropical storm. But stay on top of the weather before it's on top of you! 

As always in Florida there's a link to pirates ;)

UPDATED - Tropical Storm EMILY Forms From Tropical Depression 6 Forms Near Tampa Moving East. Hello Tampa... Tropical Wake Up Call This Morning .. Wave Down to 10% in ATL

Tropical Storm Emily has formed.
Upgraded at 8 AM.
I'll update the blog again at 11 AM
After a new full forecast package.

Track the same.

And again worth saying again..

Most of the weather is on the SOUTH side.

Good post by Phil Ferro of effects in South Florida.

Cone

Tropical Depression 6

Slow moving Tropical Depression.

East bound.

Tropical Depression 6 formed in the Eastern Gulf of Mexico this morning as it's center is visible on radar and satellite imagery just off shore. Ascat made a pass confirming other surface observations. I'll post a link to the discussion from the NHC. As mentioned yesterday it seems to want to visit Tampa and the other beautiful West Coast beaches. It will then cross of Florida and emerge into the Atlantic. Shear will be lightening up at that time and there is some room for intensification at that time. It is currently West of Tampa or let's say part of it hovering over land and the center just off shore.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT1+shtml/310954.shtml?

Advisories began at 6 AM and as you are looking at the satellite imagery above you can see how this is slowly dominating as an entity and looking less like a large front with strong convection. And the Tampa area is used to strong thunderstorms, however this could produce some localized flooding.

Currently the forecast is for the winds to stay offshore..

...after leaving Florida. 

A good radar image is shown below.

Where does it go after this? Models show it crossing over Florida as I have discussed here previously. This is a pretty set in stone track right now as it rides up the coast either closer to the coast where there could be more interaction or further offshore. It's a fluid situation, changing fast so if you live in the area of the cone and associated track check back often for any changes in strength or track. Also note that as it is a small Tropical Depression in the process trying to evolve into a weak Tropical Storm other weather associated with it can pop up fast over a wide air. This may not get a name and remain a Tropical Depression. Again small tight, compact Cat 1 Hurricanes are easier to track exactly than the weather associated with a small developing depression moving onto land at the tail end of a cold front. And, this front has not gone flat yet as part of it is still pushing and keeping TD6 lower than previously expected.

The 12 hour loop below shows the birth of TD6

The wave in the Atlantic is not doing well.

There is SAL as previously discussed.

It is juicing up the atmosphere.

It's part of the process of the tropics coming alive.

In the same way that a diving cold front flips a switch often.

I'll be back with more information throughout the day.

Stay tuned.. 

Again currently as of 6 AM this is forecast to stay a TD.

That could change so check back often.

If you live anywhere in the SW Florida area..

...or along the SE Florida coast this is going to amp up the storms.

The shear from the NW is pushing the strong weather across FL.

Drive safe. It's going to be a wet commute this morning.

Besos BobbiStorm

Follow me on Twitter @bobbistorm

Check often with your local NWS office for localized impacts.

http://www.weather.gov/

It gets updated in real time.

If you county is one over from a warning...

..stay on top of it!