UPDATED TD 6 Forms. Labor Day Weekend Tropical Update. Thoughts on How Florence Forms and Tropical Waves in the Caribbean and RAIN Either Way... Prepare and Get a Plan B and Have a Great Holiday

TD 6

I am not ready to buy the Out to Sea solution.

The Fish Storm scenario.

It could happen.

It might not be such a locked in end game.

You can compare with the image at the bottom of the blog...

TD6 trying to break away from the monsoon trof.

As things stand now expect TD6 to take the Southern end of the Cone and if that happens they will adjust the cone a bit more to the South on each advisory. They have already backpedaled on forecast intensity. Originally this was forecast to be a Hurricane in the medium time frame, then later time frame and now the Hurricane word has been taken off the table for now. It doesn't look all that great (an in my mind never really did though models liked it a lot) and I'm pretty sure it will become Florence.  But if Florence stays weak, it gets further West most likely as it's easy to see how a strong hurricane might break through a strong ridge, but there is no strong hurricane forecast here so why would it not continue to go more to the left (West) and if it does climb some in latitude what is to stop it from trying to turn back to the left (West)? 

Intensity forecast currently a Tropical Storm.

Only 2 models break for a Hurricane.

Note the model tracks to the South...

Begin to break a bit and lunge West.

Or perhaps it stalls out a bit.

Something with timing is off with TD6

Water Vapor Image below shows a strong high.

A strong high to the N and NW of a small TD.

Things could change.

Things often do change.

Perhaps they should have named it FLO as I'm sure FLO would be a Major Hurricane. She'd create a bit stir, catch everyone's attention and then at the end save the whole East Coast and grab a lift out of town on a cold front. She might even bring us a cold front........ think on the possibilities!!

Discussion from yesterday makes FLO a cane.

I'm always been skeptical how a 75 MPH Cane...

...tries to climb in latitude so much so early?

Now they have taken the Cane out of the forecast.

Again the models shown above explain that.

So explain how a 45 to 65 MPH TS....

...busts through a strong high?

I'm waiting to see it happen.

Fish storm means less dangers to land.

Again this may be a Mermaid.

Mermaids always are drawn to land...

...to the rocks watching the sailors.

keep watching.

As for the Caribbean area we are watching.

That little bend in the force is what we are watching.

Forecast for the next 5 days is RAIN.

With or without a name.

Understand at some point something may form.

Look at the GOM now.

It may just be a matter of time.

You can see where something might form.

Less shear, Central GOM

Shear weaker.

Water warm.

Something forms in the GOM..

..it's a bull in a China Shop.

LASTLY...

For some reason people think if we don't have a big, nasty hurricane making landfall somewhere we are fine and dandy and all's good in the universe. Wrong. Weather happens with a name or without a name. Note the next few images. Weather on the rampage....

Ain't no joy in Mt. Joy today.

10 inches of rain.

More than 5 inches per hour?

Stranded school bus ...

Bet that hail storm in 1922 caused real misery.

PA still having problems with flooding.

I'm still worried on a possible ....

...Mid Atlantic Threat later this season.

Might happen.

Might not but odds are higher this year.

I forgot to mention there was a Twister in Maine yesterday.

High latitude weather events.

Amtrak is having a problem.

Amtrak train stuck in the flood.

Waiting for a rescue engine.

Ouch.

Hurricanes Happen.

Often they are Fish Storms.

Or they catch a cold front out to sea.

But Mother Nature finds a way to cause misery..

..with or without a busy hurricane season.

Let's see what happens with TD6/FLO

And the chance that something could form in the GOM.

Keep reading is you haven't done so.

If you have...thanks.

Besos BobbiStorm

Currently low chances for development.

Short term not happening.

Long term it can happen.

Note the very strong wind flow in it's immediate path.

Note to the West of Louisiana the wind flow lightens up.

When you have bars that close together it means:

Windy.

Shear.

I've said this before over and over, I'll say it again. Models are very prone to flip flop or drop something they show one day and not two days later. Shear forecasts are less reliable than where "rain" will show up. Everything is in "FLOW" and because of that it's always in movement. Hard to predict, but we keep trying. The existence of this wave that traveled from Africa is a fact, it is still there and it may move into an area where shear lessens and over warm water it can develop. Again I have said for the last few days... it needs a "center" without that center it's just stormy weather. So keep watching here is the key and know the wave will enhance the rainfall already there lingering around Florida and up in the Gulf of Mexico. I'm going with this system first as it is closest to the US and more people want to know what is happening regarding Labor Day Weekend. Keep your APPs on with notifications and check the weather and the sky often. Severe weather at the beach can pop up fast and it often takes a long time to pack up your stuff (if you are the type who brings stuff to the beach) and get back to the safety of the car before the lightning storm moves in fast.

Mike has models up on Spaghetti Models.

You can see how closed off the circulation is...

...but it's still tethered to the monsoon trough.

That deep river of blue there...

As it gains a bit in latitude it breaks free..

And swims on it's own.

Speaking of swimming.

I'm not sold on it being a FISH STORM.

It may be more of a MERMAID STORM.

Swims like a fish but ... 

...dreams of walking on land.

The high has been huge.

The high is forecast to weaken enough...

....for Florence to find that exit North.

I'm not real sold on that just yet.

It could happen.

It could also get further West and be a problem.

Don't write the end of the story for a storm.

Before said storm has really formed.

Speaking of models.

There's a long range model.

Speaking of models is synonymous with Tropical Tidbits.

Levi Cowan on Twitter has said this about the Tropical Wave.

Remember the models (especially King Euro) were Gung Ho.

Then they were less than enthusiastic.

Why you ask?

I'll add simply.

PV Streamers like Upper Level Lows...

Are complicated to fully explain and forecast.

They have in the past helped systems formed.

Often they stop systems from forming.

Fairly short blog this morning.  I'll update later today after the next set of model runs and I digest the various satellite loops a bit more. PTC6 is forecast to attain Tropical Storm strength by the NHC over the next 24 hours or so. The big question mark on the current tropical wave near the Islands that might affect Florida (as a tropical wave) and the Gulf of Mexico as a tropical wave, tropical depression or more is a longer term threat. Currently it looks like you can find a beach, go and enjoy but know you don't need a hurricane to mess up your beach plans. So......make a Plan B always!

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter

UPDATED - Tropical Storm EMILY Forms From Tropical Depression 6 Forms Near Tampa Moving East. Hello Tampa... Tropical Wake Up Call This Morning .. Wave Down to 10% in ATL

Tropical Storm Emily has formed.
Upgraded at 8 AM.
I'll update the blog again at 11 AM
After a new full forecast package.

Track the same.

And again worth saying again..

Most of the weather is on the SOUTH side.

Good post by Phil Ferro of effects in South Florida.

Cone

Tropical Depression 6

Slow moving Tropical Depression.

East bound.

Tropical Depression 6 formed in the Eastern Gulf of Mexico this morning as it's center is visible on radar and satellite imagery just off shore. Ascat made a pass confirming other surface observations. I'll post a link to the discussion from the NHC. As mentioned yesterday it seems to want to visit Tampa and the other beautiful West Coast beaches. It will then cross of Florida and emerge into the Atlantic. Shear will be lightening up at that time and there is some room for intensification at that time. It is currently West of Tampa or let's say part of it hovering over land and the center just off shore.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT1+shtml/310954.shtml?

Advisories began at 6 AM and as you are looking at the satellite imagery above you can see how this is slowly dominating as an entity and looking less like a large front with strong convection. And the Tampa area is used to strong thunderstorms, however this could produce some localized flooding.

Currently the forecast is for the winds to stay offshore..

...after leaving Florida. 

A good radar image is shown below.

Where does it go after this? Models show it crossing over Florida as I have discussed here previously. This is a pretty set in stone track right now as it rides up the coast either closer to the coast where there could be more interaction or further offshore. It's a fluid situation, changing fast so if you live in the area of the cone and associated track check back often for any changes in strength or track. Also note that as it is a small Tropical Depression in the process trying to evolve into a weak Tropical Storm other weather associated with it can pop up fast over a wide air. This may not get a name and remain a Tropical Depression. Again small tight, compact Cat 1 Hurricanes are easier to track exactly than the weather associated with a small developing depression moving onto land at the tail end of a cold front. And, this front has not gone flat yet as part of it is still pushing and keeping TD6 lower than previously expected.

The 12 hour loop below shows the birth of TD6

The wave in the Atlantic is not doing well.

There is SAL as previously discussed.

It is juicing up the atmosphere.

It's part of the process of the tropics coming alive.

In the same way that a diving cold front flips a switch often.

I'll be back with more information throughout the day.

Stay tuned.. 

Again currently as of 6 AM this is forecast to stay a TD.

That could change so check back often.

If you live anywhere in the SW Florida area..

...or along the SE Florida coast this is going to amp up the storms.

The shear from the NW is pushing the strong weather across FL.

Drive safe. It's going to be a wet commute this morning.

Besos BobbiStorm

Follow me on Twitter @bobbistorm

Check often with your local NWS office for localized impacts.

http://www.weather.gov/

It gets updated in real time.

If you county is one over from a warning...

..stay on top of it!