Hurricane Harbor

A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!

Monday, July 31, 2017

UPDATED - Tropical Storm EMILY Forms From Tropical Depression 6 Forms Near Tampa Moving East. Hello Tampa... Tropical Wake Up Call This Morning .. Wave Down to 10% in ATL

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Tropical Storm Emily has formed.
Upgraded at 8 AM.
I'll update the blog again at 11 AM
After a new full forecast package.

Track the same.
And again worth saying again..
Most of the weather is on the SOUTH side.
Good post by Phil Ferro of effects in South Florida.


Tropical Depression 6

Slow moving Tropical Depression.
East bound.

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Tropical Depression 6 formed in the Eastern Gulf of Mexico this morning as it's center is visible on radar and satellite imagery just off shore. Ascat made a pass confirming other surface observations. I'll post a link to the discussion from the NHC. As mentioned yesterday it seems to want to visit Tampa and the other beautiful West Coast beaches. It will then cross of Florida and emerge into the Atlantic. Shear will be lightening up at that time and there is some room for intensification at that time. It is currently West of Tampa or let's say part of it hovering over land and the center just off shore.

Advisories began at 6 AM and as you are looking at the satellite imagery above you can see how this is slowly dominating as an entity and looking less like a large front with strong convection. And the Tampa area is used to strong thunderstorms, however this could produce some localized flooding.

Currently the forecast is for the winds to stay offshore..
...after leaving Florida. 

A good radar image is shown below.

Where does it go after this? Models show it crossing over Florida as I have discussed here previously. This is a pretty set in stone track right now as it rides up the coast either closer to the coast where there could be more interaction or further offshore. It's a fluid situation, changing fast so if you live in the area of the cone and associated track check back often for any changes in strength or track. Also note that as it is a small Tropical Depression in the process trying to evolve into a weak Tropical Storm other weather associated with it can pop up fast over a wide air. This may not get a name and remain a Tropical Depression. Again small tight, compact Cat 1 Hurricanes are easier to track exactly than the weather associated with a small developing depression moving onto land at the tail end of a cold front. And, this front has not gone flat yet as part of it is still pushing and keeping TD6 lower than previously expected.

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The 12 hour loop below shows the birth of TD6

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The wave in the Atlantic is not doing well.
There is SAL as previously discussed.
It is juicing up the atmosphere.
It's part of the process of the tropics coming alive.
In the same way that a diving cold front flips a switch often.

I'll be back with more information throughout the day.
Stay tuned.. 

Again currently as of 6 AM this is forecast to stay a TD.
That could change so check back often.
If you live anywhere in the SW Florida area..
...or along the SE Florida coast this is going to amp up the storms.
The shear from the NW is pushing the strong weather across FL.

Drive safe. It's going to be a wet commute this morning.

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Besos BobbiStorm
Follow me on Twitter @bobbistorm

Check often with your local NWS office for localized impacts.
It gets updated in real time.
If you county is one over from a warning...
..stay on top of it!

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