Hurricane Harbor

A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!

Friday, July 28, 2017

Invest 97L Up But Nothing Expected to Develop SOON. The Next Several Days Conditions Improve. Week by Week, Wave by Wave.

Going to keep this simple today.
It's Friday you know...

The NHC no longer has a yellow x with an accompanying circle over the distant Atlantic with low odds of forming in the next five days. As of 2 PM it has their standard "no news is good news" standard statement nothing is expected to form. At 8 AM they were down from an earlier 30% chances. The main wave they were watching remains evident below in satellite imagery. Actually an Invest was put up on the NRL site earlier today and it was tagged as Invest 97L. Currently Invest 97L is still up on the NRL sites. You can see to the west of South America the EPAC which is still "hot" today although the hurricanes have been downgraded to Tropical Storms. As the EPAC begins to slow down the Atlantic often gets busier. And, you will remember back in June when the EPAC should have been hot it was not that the Atlantic was hot. 

INVEST 97L is shown below.

It would be extremely truthful to say it is an unorganized area of showers with some lowered pressures moving in tandem westbound along with other westbound tropical waves leaving Africa. I waited to blog until later today as I was pretty sure the yellow circle on the previous wave would disappear, however it's worth being aware a new yellow circle may appear soon regarding another wave. As I said yesterday there were a trio of waves over Africa coming off and the models have been more interested in them than the ones that recently rolled off and sputtered out. Below is Tropical Storm Hilary not even a hurricane but still looks good. I'm showing Hilary to show you what a real Tropical Storm should look like as we haven't had too many in the Atlantic so far that looked that good. It may excite many to have an INVEST however it's just an area being investigated and nothing more. 

Personally I'd probably have kept it at 10% 

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There's still a bit of a twist there.
And it's recognizable as a wave vs just convection.
Putting up the image below in case this floater gets dropped.

It's a wave.

Below you can see the next wave in the flow.

It would probably be prudent to keep the floater up.
And to keep the Invest up although that's the NHC.
Lately there has been less consistency.
Usually an Invest is for one wave in particular.
A yellow circle usually is for one wave.
Then they put up a different circle for a different wave.
I've seen them put a long yellow circle up for an area... area that might produce a tropical cyclone.

And that is where we are today in the tropics.

I'm posting this MJO image below.
Its up at
I've cut it down to explain it better.

Green is active.
This goes through August 17, 2017.
Notice the green slowly moves into the Atlantic.
When it was over the EPAC they had hurricanes.
As the green moves East...
our chances of development increase.
Also... generally SAL decreases as we move into August.

I love Mike's site.
I'll admit it I'm an addict.
And I'm not giving this addiction up.
I love a lot of my friend's sites online.
But Mike has everything there easy to see.
I'm proud to say I'm connected with it
Good job.

So SAL is shown below from his page.

The SAL on the left shows it's moderating.
Still there but not as predominate.
The site on the right shows areas we watch for development.

So.............keep watching.

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Watch the front moving down.
Watch the set up...
Enjoy the weekend.
Have a wonderful Sunday.

Our day is coming.
The baton should be getting passed from EPAC... the Atlantic.

sat_ir_enh_east_loop-12.gif (640×512)

It's not about an Invest.
It's not about a wave.

It's about that wave that does the trick.
Wraps up as the pressures drop.
Pulls away from the Monsoon Trof.
Slips past Sheriff Sal.

The characters are there..
..the plot needs some development.
Add in the MJO and fronts.
And the plot gets thicker.

And then we will have something to talk about.

Note there's a page I watch on the NRL site.
It shows me the waves over Africa.
If you have not bought hurricane supplies... them soon or get caught in a busy store with long lines.
It really sucks when all your favorite Twinkies have sold out...
...and the water and beer are gone.
And only canned salmon is left because the tuna is gone..
Don't say I didn't warn you!

Besos BobbiStorm
@Bobbistorm on Twitter.
Follow me on Twitter for real time updates..
Enjoy the beach or the mountains or the lakes.
Or stay home inside in AC sipping Sweet Tea and watch Netflix.
Have a great weekend.
If you haven't read the previous post it's a good one...
..explains a lot in an entertaining way.

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