A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!
Friday, October 04, 2019
Enjoy the Weekend. NHC Watching 2 Areas with Low Yellow Chances. It's Just a Matter of Time Before Something Forms... Til Then... Enjoy the Weekend. Check Back Monday ;)
The NHC Main Page is sort of a Maze ...
...an interactive game we play.
From June 1st to November 30th.
Area in the Yucatan down low on probabilities.
Never believed in the westbound system myself.
As I've said I'm watching for Mid October myself.
Generally if something is going to happen...
....that's the watch time frame.
As always late in the season we have Mid Atlantic Systems.
But when you click on the main screen for Day 2.
You get this satellite imagery below.
That tells the real story.
And addendum to that is my video below.
Lots to look at as it's not cloudless.
But nothing impending about to come together.
Have a wonderful weekend enjoying the cooler air in the South as we wait to see what happens in the tropics, weather wise in general as we wonder On #Halloween and wait for the State Fair in #NC @NCStateFair hurricane season not over but on hiatus this weekend pic.twitter.com/g1xAPyzxWu
Image I screenshot of Hurricane Michael before landfall.
Category 5 Hurricane Michael.
Rarely have I ever seen an eye look so real.
The big news today in the world of Tropical Meteorology is that as expected it might be... Hurricane Michael has been upgraded in retrospect after much analysis to have been a Category 5 Hurricane. A very rare event to have a Category 5 Hurricane that close to land and even rarer to have a Category 5 Hurricane make landfall. Everything has been changed now, all those lists of the top five strongest hurricanes to ever make landfall in the Atlantic Basin. And remember again this was a hurricane season that was forecast by many to be relatively quiet due to cooler than warmer temperatures in the breeding grounds of the Mid Atlantic. This is an excellent example to remind you this season when you read headlines and see that mitigating factors may suppress hurricane activity. They are academic discussions and nothing more because hurricanes happen in real time and only in the rear view mirror can we really know what any said hurricane season is after all the storms have ended and the post analysis has been finished. Again the NHC always goes over the storms after the season and decides whether a downgrade or rare upgrade is in order and in this case Hurricane Michael that seemed to almost take on human like features doing things that no hurricane has ever done before... making landfall in that location that late in the Hurricane Season the hurricane with the eye that seemed so real, so intense has not been upgraded to Category 5.
Obviously the excitement in the meteorology community is real and despite today's wicked weather traipsing across the Deep South and East Coast.... everyone stopped staring at radars to talk Hurricane Michael. The picture I screenshot from my computer shown above is from the blog post when Michael was intensifying and concerns on destruction at landfall were becoming more real, more obvious and more terrifying. Sadly that terror played out and the destruction was as expected if not even stronger than originally thought it would be. You can see the destruction yourself below.
I'm short on time today as I am busy with preparations for Passover as is my family and many of my friends as well as some of my friends who are busy with preparations for Easter Sunday. It's just that time of year to be honest. As much as we worry on climate change to be honest tornadoes and Easter Weekend have come together too many times to list; the two that come to mind are shown below. I'm hoping and praying the weather will come and go without much trouble but wishing doesn't always make it so.
As for me home in Miami after a nice road trip South.
Weekend Weather. Tropics? Taking a Break of Finished? Coastal Storm... GOM. Questions Abound.
Convection in the Caribbean.
Rain lingering along the Texas coast...
... continuing to flow in with a flood alert.
Cold weather clouds off the East coast.
Everyone wants to know what's happening with the weather this weekend and next week but some are wondering on the tropics and others are wishing for a snow storm. It's that time of year we start watching the Troposphere to see what may be coming down our way.
Cranky watches up above.
He lives up north.
DaBuh watches down below.
He lives Down South.
In reality we watch the troposphere...
...because what develops there and dips down...
... becomes the steering currents in the tropics.
What goes around comes around.
DaBuh loves to say that...
...it's true.
It can lift a hurricane up towards landfall...
...or it can sweep one away from landfall.
Currently there are no hurricanes forecast to form.
This time of year things can pop up fast so we watch.
...the AC isn't on that's just cool air getting in here.
Got my velvet sweat pants from Victoria's Secrets on :)
Short sleeve top in a matching color.
We are moving bit by bit into Autumn.
Took off the hot pink nail polish...
..tried a new color Burnished Bronze.
It looked like a Fall Shade ;)
Patchy frost possible on Monday...
Brrr for Bronze.
As for the tropics until that flow stops flowing...
We need to watch the Caribbean.
And any stalled out cold fronts that linger.
That means the GOM and off the FL coast as well.
Late October and early November can produce hurricanes.
On this day in history... Wilma did the Yucatan.
A few days later she did Florida.
She caught a cold front.
Some people stop watching the tropics after the first good cold front goes through Florida and simply say things like "it's all zonal" and what they mean is if they aren't getting any huge CV Hurricanes they don't care and aren't chasing any subtropical or hybrid storm. I'm not that person. I watch with one eye on the tropics and one eye up at the North Pole. No ... not looking for Santa though might be wondering what Superman is doing up there hiding out but he's probably just enjoying the snow. Everyone wants to know about snow or a hurricane, but the reality is that weather happens in between in places that wish they could get rid of the weather. Texas for example is so stuck in a wet pattern and that's common this time of year some years. Caribbean moisture is still moving up towards the Gulf or Mexico and there's much rain but not a lot of spinning going on. No name storms wash out bridges, destroy WHOLE small communities built in the cheaper low lands close to where people work and they get no press. But tropical destinations along the coasts that have destruction get lots of press. You could say it's not the same but it is and it's a matter of perspective. If your community was washed away by a Flash Flood that wasn't even on the radar the night before when you were decorating for Halloween and putting together a few things for Christmas presents it's the same devastating, horrific catastrophe. Oh you heard a neighborhood of trailers were destroyed so you think somehow that it's not as big as a beach front home that looks like the beach front home you always dreamed of...
A statistic I read this morning said that 30 to 50% of the people in the path of Hurricane Michael live within the poverty range. That might be higher in the part of North Carolina flooded out by rain from Hurricane Florence. To the people who live in the trailer parks and work in the farmland in Florida, Georgia, Carolinas and Texas from the No Name storm they lost their homes and their jobs. I was told it takes a good fifteen years for a pecan orchard in Texas to really produce, that's a long term disaster for people in those parts and I can bet you money that in five years Panama City will look more beautiful than it ever was before Michael. I know because we went through it in Homestead, some of the poorer areas looked like beautiful suburbs three to five years later as money flowed into the area in the same way devastating hurricanes winds blew in with Andrew. Money flows after a hurricane into some areas and other areas money creeps in and the towns barely come back and the people who lived and worked there pick up and move away. Just inland about 30 minutes from Myrtle Beach or less there are tobacco farms, cotton farms and farms that grown winter wheat and the landscape is filled with small trailer communities on the edges of the farms and small towns that all look the same in that they have a few old beautiful buildings and some store somewhere has been changed into a Chinese Buffet. Drive the back roads someday they are beautiful and an education about what it takes to make a country like the USA. Not everyone lives in the cities and not everyone is rich and owns a beach home or a ski chalet but life is way better here than it is in most places across the world. If your home, trailer or beachfront dream house was destroyed your world was destroyed. Some have good insurance or money put away and will rebuild there or somewhere else and others will simply pick up and move on to some other town where they can make a living and send their kids to school.
Or take a drive somewhere out in the country and look at the Fall Foliage or drive down to the coast and spread some money about encouraging life to get back to normal along the coast of North Carolina. Not sure what I am doing this weekend. Maybe staying close to home and watching football or take a long drive somewhere or maybe go to the Farmer's Market for fresh Fall produce that is bountiful this time of year round here. Time will tell. I'll update the blog should anything happen worth updating. If the models start to come on as fast as Jack Frost is nipping at our door I'll post some information on them. Have a great weekend if you are a Red Sox fan and I am .... you'll be wearing your colors and having a smile on your face. I'd play the Fenway Park video but this series shows we can win anywhere even on the road and we have done that before haven't we? I just realized I have a charm not just a bunch of tee shirts and a way too big oversized tank top I sleep in sometimes.
Besos BobbiStorm.
@bobbistorm on Twitter
If you aren't a big Red Sox fan here's another video below.
Ps. Going to put this here and let y'all think on it a bit and let it sink in that being a mother can be empowering and doesn't mean you can't "have a life" and continue doing what you love. Most 1st world and many 2nd and 3rd world countries have had women leaders and they were often at the top of their game without having to worry how to balance careers. Women in both political parties work in Washington while raising children and even being active grandmothers. I like to think God gives mothers an extra measure of strength especially in today's world where mother's work full time and have to balance being a mother and working in careers from Publix to being an Ambassador at the United Nations. Being a mother takes a lot of navigating and often but not always the father's do their share making it all work. But either way... she does a good job and makes a good point. So this is for any young girls out there... you CAN be a METEOROLOGIST and you can work on air or behind the scenes and you can be anything you want to be you just got to work at it hard as success takes hard work and sometimes a measure of luck. Good luck!
Invest 95L Forms in Atlantic. Models Show Development. Vigorous Tropical Wave. Area Off East Coast Has Potential.
Invest 95L Tagged in the Atlantic.
Some question on why 95L vs 92L...
...but I'm just showing what they put up.
Described as a vigorous wave.
You can see the SAL to it's North.
It's staying low for now.
Note the overall NHC map.
Early models on MDR Tropical Wave
MDR = Main Development Region.
More models shown below.
Not much there.
Let this stand as a bar for tomorrow.
Small sense of circulation.
Behind this wave are more waves.
Lastly worth noting it's still raining on the GOM coast.
I just want to make it clear that the wave in the Atlantic has low chances of making it into any intense but the fact that it exists and is being tagged and watched should make it clear to you that no matter how many articles are written on how this is a quieter year than 2017 it is far from a nothing year. Something from nothing seems to be the manner of development so far this year. Even in cooler water tropical waves keep moving Westbound into warmer water.
The area closer to the East coast that has 50% chances in the next 5 days has a slim chance of attaining the name Beryl. So far, due to a forecast cold front moving down into the Carolinas , the system is forecast to stay off shore. Time will tell on the cold front and how far off shore it will stay.
We will know more tomorrow. As always in any year be it quiet or strong you need to keep your guard up and be prepared should tropical trouble show up at your door suddenly.
The blue is Cotton Candy Frozen Yogurt.
It's summer in Raleigh.
Otherwise tonight was a beautiful night in Raleigh. The temperatures at 10:30 went down to 85 and we went out for ice cream, sat outside and enjoyed the cool treat. I'd love the temperatures to go down to what they are forecast to be but I'll believe it when I see it. The cold front being this strong was not in the forecast and neither were two systems being watched in the Atlantic when the NHC kept putting up "nothing expected" signs for the last several days. Weather pops up, that's the nature of weather. And, as always models are at their best when they have a solid center to work with. When we are in a pattern such as this where High Pressure is strong to the North it's common for Low Pressure to try and form to the South. This has been going on forever. Stay tuned.
Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter
Ps This morning when I put up the grid with the purple splotches I wasn't being "silly" that was foreshadowing. Things are indeed popping up everywhere.
Invest 97L Up But Nothing Expected to Develop SOON. The Next Several Days Conditions Improve. Week by Week, Wave by Wave.
Going to keep this simple today.
It's Friday you know...
AKA TGIF
The NHC no longer has a yellow x with an accompanying circle over the distant Atlantic with low odds of forming in the next five days. As of 2 PM it has their standard "no news is good news" standard statement nothing is expected to form. At 8 AM they were down from an earlier 30% chances. The main wave they were watching remains evident below in satellite imagery. Actually an Invest was put up on the NRL site earlier today and it was tagged as Invest 97L. Currently Invest 97L is still up on the NRL sites. You can see to the west of South America the EPAC which is still "hot" today although the hurricanes have been downgraded to Tropical Storms. As the EPAC begins to slow down the Atlantic often gets busier. And, you will remember back in June when the EPAC should have been hot it was not that the Atlantic was hot.
INVEST 97L is shown below.
It would be extremely truthful to say it is an unorganized area of showers with some lowered pressures moving in tandem westbound along with other westbound tropical waves leaving Africa. I waited to blog until later today as I was pretty sure the yellow circle on the previous wave would disappear, however it's worth being aware a new yellow circle may appear soon regarding another wave. As I said yesterday there were a trio of waves over Africa coming off and the models have been more interested in them than the ones that recently rolled off and sputtered out. Below is Tropical Storm Hilary not even a hurricane but still looks good. I'm showing Hilary to show you what a real Tropical Storm should look like as we haven't had too many in the Atlantic so far that looked that good. It may excite many to have an INVEST however it's just an area being investigated and nothing more.
Personally I'd probably have kept it at 10%
There's still a bit of a twist there.
And it's recognizable as a wave vs just convection.
Putting up the image below in case this floater gets dropped.
It's a wave.
Below you can see the next wave in the flow.
It would probably be prudent to keep the floater up.
And to keep the Invest up although that's the NHC.
Lately there has been less consistency.
Usually an Invest is for one wave in particular.
A yellow circle usually is for one wave.
Then they put up a different circle for a different wave.
I've seen them put a long yellow circle up for an area...
...an area that might produce a tropical cyclone.
And that is where we are today in the tropics.
I'm posting this MJO image below.
Its up at www.spaghettimodels.com
I've cut it down to explain it better.
Green is active.
This goes through August 17, 2017.
Notice the green slowly moves into the Atlantic.
When it was over the EPAC they had hurricanes.
As the green moves East...
our chances of development increase.
Also... generally SAL decreases as we move into August.
I love Mike's site.
I'll admit it I'm an addict.
And I'm not giving this addiction up.
I love a lot of my friend's sites online.
But Mike has everything there easy to see.
I'm proud to say I'm connected with it
Good job.
So SAL is shown below from his page.
The SAL on the left shows it's moderating.
Still there but not as predominate.
The site on the right shows areas we watch for development.
So.............keep watching.
Watch the front moving down.
Watch the set up...
Enjoy the weekend.
Have a wonderful Sunday.
Our day is coming.
The baton should be getting passed from EPAC...
...to the Atlantic.
It's not about an Invest.
It's not about a wave.
It's about that wave that does the trick.
Wraps up as the pressures drop.
Pulls away from the Monsoon Trof.
Slips past Sheriff Sal.
The characters are there..
..the plot needs some development.
Add in the MJO and fronts.
And the plot gets thicker.
And then we will have something to talk about.
Note there's a page I watch on the NRL site.
It shows me the waves over Africa.
If you have not bought hurricane supplies...
...buy them soon or get caught in a busy store with long lines.
It really sucks when all your favorite Twinkies have sold out...
...and the water and beer are gone.
And only canned salmon is left because the tuna is gone..
Don't say I didn't warn you!
Besos BobbiStorm
@Bobbistorm on Twitter.
Follow me on Twitter for real time updates..
Enjoy the beach or the mountains or the lakes.
Or stay home inside in AC sipping Sweet Tea and watch Netflix.
Have a great weekend.
If you haven't read the previous post it's a good one...
Location: Miami, Raleigh, Crown Heights, Florida, United States
Weather Historian. Studied meteorology and geography at FIU. Been quoted in Wall Street Journal, Washington Post & everywhere else... Lecturer, stormchaser, writer, dancer. If it's tropical it's topical ... covering the weather & musing on life. Follow me on Twitter @ https://twitter.com/#!/BobbiStorm
