Hurricane Harbor

A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!

Tuesday, November 19, 2019

Sebastien Forms From Invest 90L... Center Close to Convection. Quiet Tropical Drama in the Atlantic




We now have Sebastien.
Tropical Storm Sebastien.
I like Mike's announcement better ...





Discussion above explains a bit of the drama..
..and the dynamics behind Sebastien.
As it may go "baroclinic" it may transform.
Size, shape... Google it. Baroclinic.
Common for these sort of storms.
Currently battling shear still.
Center more naked than not.
But enough clothes for prime time.
So hello Sebastien!
Welcome to the 2019 Hurricane Season!!


Going up, up and away...


Please keep reading.
Written about an hour before the upgrade.
Explains why they upgraded.
And where it's going.
Thanks :)

Keep reading... written around 10 AM.
Before the expected upgrade to TS status.

Thanks @yconsor on Twitter
 for the reminder to check out that loop.
Like seeing an old friend.
Good loop.
So many loops....
...the struggle is real.





Basically waiting on upgrade to Sebastian.
At least a TD I'd think.....
...this season has been hard to figure.
But the NHC has raised it to 80%
It has a narrow window to develop.
Convection way closer to the center.


Early morning discussion below from NHC




Up, Up and Away as the song goes.
As the loop and video above show.

Watching the hearings.
One of my degrees is in International Relations.
Emphasis to Russian Studies.
I specialized in patterns and linkage.
So it's interesting.
90L/Sebastien less interesting.
But it's a matter of history...
..especially when it gets a name.

At some point Phil Klotzbach will reference it.
Some November with a similar set up.
A similar pattern and link it in his discussion.

Oh look... and he did.
Wrote that at 10 AM
Phil tweeted this at 11 AM.



See? I'm very good at forecasting ...


Have a wonderful day!
Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram.


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posted by BobbiStorm @ 7:15 AM 0 comments

Thursday, October 24, 2019

Updated 11 PM 70% RED in GOM (OLGA??) ... N ATLANTIC GALE ... Front Brings Snow, Maybe Thundersnow & Mucho Rain For the South as it Hooks Up with our GOM System. Hushpuppies & Maple Bourbon Coffee. NC State Fair...


11 PM

70% Chances of development.
I went to the fair.
I haven't followed it much.
I walked everywhere.
I've had enough.
Going to bed but ....
... just putting this up now.


Getting there bit by bit.
What will we find tomorrow?

 

Models consistently take it to landfall.
But as a named system or TD?
Or merging with the front at landfall?


The picture below shows how close...
...the mega system is to coming together.
Another view below.


There is some consolidation tonight.
Is it enough for a name tomorrow?
Or TD status?
Think Hybrid .... 

In Oklahoma it snowed today.
Woodward is prime Tornado Real Estate.


So pretty.
Amarillo got Thunderstorms.
Snow...

As for 97L
There's something going on there.
What will the NHC do in the morning?



I went to the fair.
The NC State Fair.
Love watching things spin.



I'm going to sleep.
Oh and incredible sunsets.
Sweet Tropical Dreams.
Keep reading if you didn't do so already!



3 PM
60% Orange for 97L


Regardless of what happens.
The nasty weather from the front is real.
This may become a Tropical Depression.
Short lived as many have been this year.
Olga if it gets a name.
But the name of the game is ...
The Cold Front.
And moist, tropical weather feeding it.
Creating a stronger front than otherwise.



You can see how the visible image above.
Matches up with the models below.





I'm going to the Fair.
The State Fair.
For all your 97L needs.
Please check out Spaghetti Models.

https://spaghettimodels.com/

I'll update way later.
Please read if you did not do so..
Again the 3 day loop is below.

I'll say one thing.
This most likely will not be the last GOM system.
To grab a ride with a front across the SE.
My question is later in the month...
as in BOO!
or early November.
Fronts will get further South.

It's just that time of year.
Everyone wants to say it's over.
But it's not over til Mother Nature..
..says it's over.

Keep reading if you did not already

10 AM view of 97L




So they reconsidered the situation.
And less than 2 hours after their 8 AM
They put out a special update.
Orange 50%
Invest 97L begins...



Note they mention "tropical depression" right off the bat.
So would expect this to happen....
...unless it suddenly collapses.

This always had a window of opportunity.
It was a short window.
97L has to make the most of it...
...and is doing so this morning.

Models below.


Many models at www.tropicaltidbits.com
Satellite loops too!



The reason they went with TD is...
...it's gonna have to do more than this.
But it is flirting with TS status.
So should next few model runs...
...match it's rapid blossoming.
It's a long shot but odds are going up.



Link to loop above image.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=97L&product=ir



My candy cane satellite.
Much convection....
...approaching front above it.

I'll update later today...
....keep reading if you didn't.
It's still all valid.
Except we are not orange...
...no longer yellow.

(check out that wave by Africa..)
(I'm whispering ...wink wink)

hiatlsat_None_anim.gif (768×496)

Who are you?
Where do your eyes go first?
Do you watch that wave off of Africa.
Low and late in the season....
The big swirl in the North Atlantic?
Or colors showing in the Gulf of Mexico?
That's our mixed basket today.


We know what DaBuh is looking at ;)
Me too... 
But officially check out the GOM
BOC today, GOM tomorrow.
It's a GOM system...
...making landfall.
You can watch in real time.
The front and the Invest!

atl_ir4_sat_tropicalindex_anim.gif (640×480)

30% Yellow Circle 
Long shot Olga.
Unless Olga forms somewhere else...


(ya never know...what goes in 2019)

Mike has a plethora of loops and info..
Easy to use on your phone...
...take the tropics with you everywhere !!


I may design a purple shirt later today.
Lots of tee shirt options.


Picture of our area of curiosity above.

Video i made quick this morning ;)


Sipping Maple Bourbon Coffee with Pumpkin Spice Latte Creamer this morning as the man on Spectrum News is giving the weather for what to wear to the State Fair today. We definitely are deep in Fall in the Carolinas. In the Gulf of Mexico a moist, latent area of convection is going to blossom today and fantasize about getting a name as the Cold Front dips down towards it ...reaching out, grabbing it and zoom, zooming it away towards the Deep South. Slow enough to get some real rain, moving too fast to probably get a name. But it is tropical moisture and when tropical moisture meets up with a front that has an edge, trouble ensues. Stay tuned for that drama and watch the video below showing the next 3 days of stormy weather in the South.

allfcsts_loop_ndfd.gif (799×559)


When I was a little girl and obsessed with the weather maps in the newspaper I would always wonder why they do this switching back and forth game. Cold front dives down, then goes stationary, then a bit of a warm front develops and then WHAM the next stronger front dives down and blows them all out to sea and then in a few days.... they do the dance again. Being an intense sort of person I obviously thought all the fronts should DIVE DOWN and SWEEP DOWN INTO THE CARIBBEAN. And all hurricanes should move WNW until them slam into South Florida. Give me a break, I was young. The first time I lived in an apartment on Biscayne Bay and looked out my bedroom window the reality hit me.... "if we get a hurricane it would blow all of this away...." and I began to worry more than wish on them. From the relative safety of growing up further inland in Miami and later 4 blocks from the ocean on Miami Beach we told ourselves storm surge wouldn't be a problem. Once you have a water view from your bedroom it's a different story.



Enough about me .... but the reality is that is where most of the South is at this time of year. We keep looking South to see if some wayward, surprising system will form and we look longingly at those tweets of snow falling onto people's decks out in the Northwest somewhere and wish a bit harder the fronts get a bit stronger so we can wear our winter clothes and sip pumpkin spice latte and long for Thanksgiving to get a little bit closer! What are you longing for today? I have weather in the low 40s this morning, but by the time I go out... I won't need a sweater as the thermometer launches up towards the low 70s. Kind of like a strong, Miami cold front...but I'm in NORTH Carolina. 



Note Sunday the rain begins to threaten...


And seriously look at how much rain is there.
How fast does it move?
Timing is everything here.
Whoa.... 30% Yellow.
Being monitored in the GOM


But that other area in the N Atlantic
Steals your attention.
Tomorrow the GOM system will steal it back.


That is an amazing North Atlantic Swirl.
Swell, System... Impressive.




So let's look at the tropics fast.
Definitely blossoming today.
Much more convection.
Intenser convection.
Congregating, waiting ...
...to be pulled North by the front.
When I say "North" I mean UP
Exact track of that remains to be seen.
But Mississippi and Tennessee...
Getting rain...

Compare and contrast the video above...
...with how it looked last night.




Note I called it a long shot.
A long shot of being OLGA.

Either way it will be...
..a hybrid sort of system.
Many faces of Olga or just ..
...rain, soaking rain.
With a touch of cooler weather.
We aren't getting Arctic Air yet!

But Colorado has snow... 
...beautiful snow.
Rumors of an East Coast snow...
...are blowing in the wind.
The scent of hype and hysteria...
...is mixed with burning leaves and PSL.
And wishes for November snow.

I'd give the marginal snow for the East Coast..
..better chances than the long shot Olga.
But time will tell.

That's it for me.
I have big questions to deal with currently.

If you were going to get hush puppies.
Let's just pretend...
Would you get 


(it has applesauce sauce on top with a glaze...)


A) Cheerwine ones?
or 
B) Pumpkin Spice Latte ones?


Or would you just go for ICE CREAM?
From NC STATE Howling Ice Cream ;)


And that's it.
Check it out for yourself.

https://www.greensboro.com/gallery/news/photos-new-foods-at-the-n-c-state-fair/collection_f9bb5276-4dad-5d1f-913b-bf007329300b.html#26

I'll update when we see what will be.
I wouldn't hold your breath for Olga.
But it's been an odd year naming wise.


And as for Amarillo...
...they may be getting Thundersnow.


Yes... Cantore is always dreaming of Thundersnow.
What are you dreaming of?

I'll update in real time.
Depending on how much time I have.
Have a wonderful day.


Oh and Cranky may Live Tweet soon.
So that's always entertaining!


Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram.
(going to be lots of fair pics as the week progresses)
(Don't say I didn't warn ya)

For an old friend :)



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posted by BobbiStorm @ 5:35 AM 1 comments

Monday, October 07, 2019

2 Yellow Circles... 1 Orange. No Tropical Named Storm... Not Yet. Coastal Storm Forming in Real Time. Messy Week for Ships At Sea... Beach Erosion & a Possible October Surprise.




Turn the sound up....
...and see my thoughts on the water vapor loop.



I love the way Ed puts things together.
Ed makes great maps and graphics.
We have a strong orange area to the right.
Yet no one cares....
Everyone wants to know 
what's with the yellow circles.


I told one of my forever friends online that I really think the NHC pulled the plug on the Yucatan Yellow Area that was forecast to form to the left so that they could reintroduce it quietly again having it form to the right; because I always thought if anything was going to come of it ...it would head NE not NW. I discount models when they make no sense and watch the flow, the pattern and the water vapor loop so now an area that was near the Yucatan moved up across Cuba and is slamming parts of Florida with so much rain that even Dabuh complained.... 


Well that escalated fast.....


So now we are chasing moisture moving to the right.


You can see for  yourself it leans right.
And that's heavy rain under those reddish blobs.

Where is it going?
Up towards the other yellow circle.
There's a merging or an evolution.....
perhaps a hand off of energy.

You can see on Earthnull.... 
...there's lots of wiggly lines.
No closed circle.


And indeed currently it's one large trof of moisture.
Tropical Moisture.
It's forming in real time.
Models show different things....
...yet they agree that moisture hangs out along the coast.




Oh the EURO develops a tropical wave off Africa.
More on that later.

So let's look at a 3 day loop from NOAA.
It's a 3 day forecast it should verify.
Nice front coming down....


allfcsts_loop_ndfd.gif (799×559)

When things seem confusing...
...and models disagree.
I go to this short term loop.
3 days is almost set in stone.
Moisture moves up across Florida....
...reforming and combining with another area.
Into what will be a significant low pressure system.
But why kind and storm?
Which type forms?
Or does one form and then we get another.
Hope you read yesterday's history lesson.

It's a shame the NHC can't make a music video.
Sometimes a song doesn't get it wrong.
This sort of NHC update reminds me always of...
...the song Pieces of You.
(long story there.... 
....then I think of Foolish Games)


Again Earthnull.... 
Nothing concrete today.


Visible imagery shows something trying to wrap.
Or where something will wrap.


Extra credit image of a westbound tropical wave.
That moves into the Caribbean.
That needs to be watched down the line.


So it's always good to watch the MIMIC loop.
It shows where things begin to spin....
...it shows the flow of moisture.
It's a great tool.

I'll update tomorrow morning.
It's a time to watch and wait in real time.



Again this could be a Subtropical Storm.
Or a Hybrid storm.
Or any named storm the NHC chooses to use..
It's not a clear cut system just yet.
And often these things can go either way or do both.
Read the previous blog please for historic references.
October.... messy hidden games.
Tropical systems mixing it up with cold fronts.
Hurricanes and Snow Storms on the map on the same day.
A tropical storm dresses up as a subtropical.
Or a hybrid storm cloaked in a strange costume.
And either way... heavy rain, winds and surf will happen.
Bad boating and beach conditions.
Merchant Marines... ships at sea.
Some coastal effects messing with the beaches.
October.. it's not over.

You're dreaming of snow....
...and getting slammed by tropical rain.
And then the storm goes away and...
...it's wet, chilly and cold.
And sometimes a surprise hurricane happens.
Don't say I didn't warn ya.

Good tweet here.....


Good thing to remember.
Very true.
NHC not as good with intensity forecasting...
...as they are their cone.
Things often change in real time.

Don't say I didn't warn ya...

Stay tuned.

Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram



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posted by BobbiStorm @ 2:47 PM 0 comments