Hurricane Harbor

A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!

Thursday, October 24, 2019

Updated 11 PM 70% RED in GOM (OLGA??) ... N ATLANTIC GALE ... Front Brings Snow, Maybe Thundersnow & Mucho Rain For the South as it Hooks Up with our GOM System. Hushpuppies & Maple Bourbon Coffee. NC State Fair...


11 PM

70% Chances of development.
I went to the fair.
I haven't followed it much.
I walked everywhere.
I've had enough.
Going to bed but ....
... just putting this up now.


Getting there bit by bit.
What will we find tomorrow?

 

Models consistently take it to landfall.
But as a named system or TD?
Or merging with the front at landfall?


The picture below shows how close...
...the mega system is to coming together.
Another view below.


There is some consolidation tonight.
Is it enough for a name tomorrow?
Or TD status?
Think Hybrid .... 

In Oklahoma it snowed today.
Woodward is prime Tornado Real Estate.


So pretty.
Amarillo got Thunderstorms.
Snow...

As for 97L
There's something going on there.
What will the NHC do in the morning?



I went to the fair.
The NC State Fair.
Love watching things spin.



I'm going to sleep.
Oh and incredible sunsets.
Sweet Tropical Dreams.
Keep reading if you didn't do so already!



3 PM
60% Orange for 97L


Regardless of what happens.
The nasty weather from the front is real.
This may become a Tropical Depression.
Short lived as many have been this year.
Olga if it gets a name.
But the name of the game is ...
The Cold Front.
And moist, tropical weather feeding it.
Creating a stronger front than otherwise.



You can see how the visible image above.
Matches up with the models below.





I'm going to the Fair.
The State Fair.
For all your 97L needs.
Please check out Spaghetti Models.

https://spaghettimodels.com/

I'll update way later.
Please read if you did not do so..
Again the 3 day loop is below.

I'll say one thing.
This most likely will not be the last GOM system.
To grab a ride with a front across the SE.
My question is later in the month...
as in BOO!
or early November.
Fronts will get further South.

It's just that time of year.
Everyone wants to say it's over.
But it's not over til Mother Nature..
..says it's over.

Keep reading if you did not already

10 AM view of 97L




So they reconsidered the situation.
And less than 2 hours after their 8 AM
They put out a special update.
Orange 50%
Invest 97L begins...



Note they mention "tropical depression" right off the bat.
So would expect this to happen....
...unless it suddenly collapses.

This always had a window of opportunity.
It was a short window.
97L has to make the most of it...
...and is doing so this morning.

Models below.


Many models at www.tropicaltidbits.com
Satellite loops too!



The reason they went with TD is...
...it's gonna have to do more than this.
But it is flirting with TS status.
So should next few model runs...
...match it's rapid blossoming.
It's a long shot but odds are going up.



Link to loop above image.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=97L&product=ir



My candy cane satellite.
Much convection....
...approaching front above it.

I'll update later today...
....keep reading if you didn't.
It's still all valid.
Except we are not orange...
...no longer yellow.

(check out that wave by Africa..)
(I'm whispering ...wink wink)

hiatlsat_None_anim.gif (768×496)

Who are you?
Where do your eyes go first?
Do you watch that wave off of Africa.
Low and late in the season....
The big swirl in the North Atlantic?
Or colors showing in the Gulf of Mexico?
That's our mixed basket today.


We know what DaBuh is looking at ;)
Me too... 
But officially check out the GOM
BOC today, GOM tomorrow.
It's a GOM system...
...making landfall.
You can watch in real time.
The front and the Invest!

atl_ir4_sat_tropicalindex_anim.gif (640×480)

30% Yellow Circle 
Long shot Olga.
Unless Olga forms somewhere else...


(ya never know...what goes in 2019)

Mike has a plethora of loops and info..
Easy to use on your phone...
...take the tropics with you everywhere !!


I may design a purple shirt later today.
Lots of tee shirt options.


Picture of our area of curiosity above.

Video i made quick this morning ;)


Sipping Maple Bourbon Coffee with Pumpkin Spice Latte Creamer this morning as the man on Spectrum News is giving the weather for what to wear to the State Fair today. We definitely are deep in Fall in the Carolinas. In the Gulf of Mexico a moist, latent area of convection is going to blossom today and fantasize about getting a name as the Cold Front dips down towards it ...reaching out, grabbing it and zoom, zooming it away towards the Deep South. Slow enough to get some real rain, moving too fast to probably get a name. But it is tropical moisture and when tropical moisture meets up with a front that has an edge, trouble ensues. Stay tuned for that drama and watch the video below showing the next 3 days of stormy weather in the South.

allfcsts_loop_ndfd.gif (799×559)


When I was a little girl and obsessed with the weather maps in the newspaper I would always wonder why they do this switching back and forth game. Cold front dives down, then goes stationary, then a bit of a warm front develops and then WHAM the next stronger front dives down and blows them all out to sea and then in a few days.... they do the dance again. Being an intense sort of person I obviously thought all the fronts should DIVE DOWN and SWEEP DOWN INTO THE CARIBBEAN. And all hurricanes should move WNW until them slam into South Florida. Give me a break, I was young. The first time I lived in an apartment on Biscayne Bay and looked out my bedroom window the reality hit me.... "if we get a hurricane it would blow all of this away...." and I began to worry more than wish on them. From the relative safety of growing up further inland in Miami and later 4 blocks from the ocean on Miami Beach we told ourselves storm surge wouldn't be a problem. Once you have a water view from your bedroom it's a different story.



Enough about me .... but the reality is that is where most of the South is at this time of year. We keep looking South to see if some wayward, surprising system will form and we look longingly at those tweets of snow falling onto people's decks out in the Northwest somewhere and wish a bit harder the fronts get a bit stronger so we can wear our winter clothes and sip pumpkin spice latte and long for Thanksgiving to get a little bit closer! What are you longing for today? I have weather in the low 40s this morning, but by the time I go out... I won't need a sweater as the thermometer launches up towards the low 70s. Kind of like a strong, Miami cold front...but I'm in NORTH Carolina. 



Note Sunday the rain begins to threaten...


And seriously look at how much rain is there.
How fast does it move?
Timing is everything here.
Whoa.... 30% Yellow.
Being monitored in the GOM


But that other area in the N Atlantic
Steals your attention.
Tomorrow the GOM system will steal it back.


That is an amazing North Atlantic Swirl.
Swell, System... Impressive.




So let's look at the tropics fast.
Definitely blossoming today.
Much more convection.
Intenser convection.
Congregating, waiting ...
...to be pulled North by the front.
When I say "North" I mean UP
Exact track of that remains to be seen.
But Mississippi and Tennessee...
Getting rain...

Compare and contrast the video above...
...with how it looked last night.




Note I called it a long shot.
A long shot of being OLGA.

Either way it will be...
..a hybrid sort of system.
Many faces of Olga or just ..
...rain, soaking rain.
With a touch of cooler weather.
We aren't getting Arctic Air yet!

But Colorado has snow... 
...beautiful snow.
Rumors of an East Coast snow...
...are blowing in the wind.
The scent of hype and hysteria...
...is mixed with burning leaves and PSL.
And wishes for November snow.

I'd give the marginal snow for the East Coast..
..better chances than the long shot Olga.
But time will tell.

That's it for me.
I have big questions to deal with currently.

If you were going to get hush puppies.
Let's just pretend...
Would you get 


(it has applesauce sauce on top with a glaze...)


A) Cheerwine ones?
or 
B) Pumpkin Spice Latte ones?


Or would you just go for ICE CREAM?
From NC STATE Howling Ice Cream ;)


And that's it.
Check it out for yourself.

https://www.greensboro.com/gallery/news/photos-new-foods-at-the-n-c-state-fair/collection_f9bb5276-4dad-5d1f-913b-bf007329300b.html#26

I'll update when we see what will be.
I wouldn't hold your breath for Olga.
But it's been an odd year naming wise.


And as for Amarillo...
...they may be getting Thundersnow.


Yes... Cantore is always dreaming of Thundersnow.
What are you dreaming of?

I'll update in real time.
Depending on how much time I have.
Have a wonderful day.


Oh and Cranky may Live Tweet soon.
So that's always entertaining!


Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram.
(going to be lots of fair pics as the week progresses)
(Don't say I didn't warn ya)

For an old friend :)



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posted by BobbiStorm @ 5:35 AM

1 Comments:

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