Hurricane Harbor

A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!

Wednesday, October 16, 2019

Updated Invest 96L 60% Orange at 8 PM -- Nestor Are You There Somewhere? October. When Fronts Fall Apart & Dangle & Dying Systems Give Life to New Systems. A Day to Watch and Wonder ...October Weather Drama. Do We Have to Wait for November for the N Storm ... Next Name Nestor



Wild Coastal storm top center.
Convection in the Gulf of Mexico.

Note we have a pattern of fronts....
...coastal storms.
As the hurricane season blends into winter.
October brings surprising weather.
I had a taste of it this morning.
And watched it fly through Maryland fast.
Sweet.

I'm back in Raleigh.
Spent a good 5 to 6 days in Baltimore.
Friends, family and a holiday celebration.
I have a love/hate relationship with Baltimore.
But good to be back in Raleigh.

So this late night post is a sort of like...
Postcards from the road.
I'll do a real update tomorrow.
After being able to loop, analyze and think.
Read, absorb and get a better feel for 96L

Incredible storm up the coast.
In Baltimore it got dark, rainy.
Tropical sort of rain yet cool temps.
Windy, gusty, puddles.
A cold breeze at times.
Warm, cold, wet, dark.

Cranky's take on it from earlier.



My younger brother is on a cruise.
Anniversary cruise with his wife.
They were supposed to to to Bar Harbour Maine
The ship rerouted citing dangerous weather.
So they got another day in Halifax.
Very strong, squally weather.
Call it anything you desire.
Regardless of the name
(as the NHC says)
It was memorable weather.

As for Invest 96L....
... maybe Nestor.


Regardless.... expect nasty weather.


Models shooting out scenarios.
First it has to form.
And timing will tell the eventual track.
As for me I'm going to sleep.
Waking up early and starting fresh.
Beautiful sunsets.


I mean look at that sunset below.


Somewhere over Virginia the sun finally set.

But before I go to sleep...
... been meaning to put this here.
But wanted to put this here ....
...hopefully it works.
@icyclone always says to use his Facebook site.
Many of us are on other social media.
But he goes long on Facebook.
Good write up of his recent adventure ...


So check him out on Facebook if you have not.
No one like him and that's good.
Always good to be an original.
And do what you love...
..and love what you do!


From earlier today if you haven't read the blog today.





NHC done pulled the plug on TD 15.


Our attention turns towards the Bay of Campeache


Short term yellow and orange.
Love how the NHC provides two sets of clothes to wear.
Yellow on the 2 day. Orange to change into.


Tropical Depression 15 is now but a remnant being monitored by the NHC. The area in the BOC is now up to 50% and the NHC has plans to send recon into the system as needed.

GOES16-GM-13-1000x1000.gif (1000×1000)

There it is cradled in the womb of the BOC where systems either head inland fast towards Mexico or look for a ticket to ride and catch a cold front of sorts out of the Gulf of Mexico. You can see the overall "spin" going on down there it's part of the overall Central American Gyre aka CAG that often produces storms and when I say storms I mean both in the Pacific and in the Atlantic though for our purposes we are most concerned with what goes on in the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico. Potential Tropical Cyclone 17 is in the EPAC now close to the coast and is at 90% red for a name before landfall I supposed but it may be running out of watery real estate for that to happen. Too little, too late in the season.



Mimic Loop shows the CAG best.
And all the rest of the tropics.
Old waves, new waves.
Remnant moisture, potential moisture.
Always watch westbound waves....
...they can get in place & hook up with..
Dangling Fronts this time of year!


A good look above at the next few days...
Fronts falling apart always need to be watched.
Especially when there's abundant moisture nearby.
Earthnull shows if there is a pulse down there.


Both areas have spin.
Both areas have convection.
Convection from PTC17....
...could infuse the BOC area being monitored now.


Again Potential Tropical Cyclone 17


Itsy Bitsy Cone... 
...then it's moisture goes where?
Check that loop above.


If anything pulls together in the BOC...
...it would need it's ticket into the GOM.
Looking at this graphic you note fronts on the move.
Note the orientation.


So with regard to fronts and October.
It takes awhile for them to dip South enough.
Each one dips, falls apart.
Another one comes by.
Kind of like commuter buses.
Bringing Winter slowly ... 
Not exactly Express buses.

Is Nestor out there somewhere?
Here's a link for what that name means.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nestor_(mythology)

What's annoying is that Twitter....
refuses to add an Edit button.
Don't you think it's ironic....
..supposedly they can make or break elections.
But they can't add an Edit Option?
Explain that to me??


Here's the progression of fronts.


allfcsts_loop_ndfd.gif (799×559)

There are a lot of them.
Fall is falling into Winter.
And as each front falls apart in the GOM...
...there's a chance something could spin up.
So we keep watching for Nestor.

Understand models show something happening.
Or they show something trying to happen.
Another one of those wait and see days.
It's gray, dark and the skies are pregnant.....
...with rain and wind in Baltimore.
There's actually Gale Warnings out for tonight.
Fronts marching on the move West to East.
Dipping a bit further South on each run..



So just keep watching....
truthfully that's where we are at today.

I'll update later today at some point..
...from somewhere.
If something forms....
...where is it going?
That's what I'm wondering most.
Again a big IF but either way.
It's a lot of moisture and a weather maker.


Be well and have a good day!
BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram




posted by BobbiStorm @ 7:39 AM

0 Comments:

Post a Comment

<< Home