October in the Tropics. Lorenzo Moving on to Europe... Something in the Caribbean? Stay Tuned.

Things of Interest.

You can't see Lorenzo but it's way up there in the Atlantic.

Headed to Ireland, GB and Europe.

Old Karen rain remnants out there doing nothing.

Some say it's Karen...others say not.

It's nothing for now.

A wave trying to sneak into the Caribbean.

And our Caribbean area being watched with low chances.

Showing 2 views of the area in our backyard...

Down in the Caribbean forecast to possibly form...

...moving up near the Yucatan.

Low chances but it's a watch and wait set up.

And that is typical this time of year.

Let's pretend we are playing football.

This quarterback is down there...

...by himself.

Waiting for his team to show up.

He looks up and there are all these linebackers.

He decides to just sit a while and wait.

And that works as the high will go away.

Everything is being held South....

...and shear is shifting everything to the East for now.

Something is there but nothing is happening.

Something very weak could form.

Generally this is not the big concern I had.

But it does shows where our focus moves in October.

Every other run of models show a hurricane.

Then nothing on the next run.

Then a hurricane.

You just sit and look at the models and go:

"yeah right" and move on til tomorrow.

Some models show waves in the Atlantic trying...

to develop or they run low into the Carib.

Then sneak up on us from the South.

And that brings us to the real point today.

It's the first week of October.

And the main pattern is shown above.

Note things can form in many places.

But the most likely tracks are there.

Where we are with the yellow area being watched.

October is like that time of year just before hurricanes start spinning in mid August and everyone starts saying it's going to be a weak season or a dead season and nothing is happening and meteorologists online begin bickering using acronyms others don't understand and then while they are arguing over how dead the season may be the season begins to show development everywhere. October is kind of like that, we move towards that second peak of the season and wait for cold fronts to finally move into Carolina but we know they won't make it through Florida and that's where cold fronts stall out leaving themselves draped across Florida and the tropics come alive again at the same time that fronts become more frequent and any tropical area that does form can track across Florida in October. People worry on other times of year but October is prime time in South Florida. That doesn't mean it cannot happen in the Northern Gulf of Mexico or something can side swipe us in the Carolinas but October is prime time for Florida. It's a secret many of us know but the media spends the whole summer making people worry on a Florida landfall and then out of the South...somewhere ... a system surprises us. 

An excellent post below by a very good meteorologist. Remember it and remember it well.

South #Florida: although there's nothing on the horizon now, October is historically the month with the most hurricane encounters here. They tend to be weaker than the Aug & Sep visitors, & generally come from the west/southwest rather than east/southeast. #Miami #HurricaneSeason pic.twitter.com/UJi6YGUexd

— Brian McNoldy (@BMcNoldy) October 1, 2019

Showing that map again.

Look at October.

22 storms track across South Florida.

Every which way they can.

Think on that a while.

I'll update tomorrow.

Oh wait... Lorenzo.

Very cool storm really.

Lucky for us it wanted to go to Great Britain

And Europe.

And helps move the seasons along ....

...dislodging the cool air up by the poles.

Keep watching those cold fronts!

If you think I'm a long read.

And if you like long reads.

Here's a great one on hurricane history.

http://digitalcollections.fiu.edu/tequesta/files/1953/53_1_01.pdf

In early October they can go any which way they can..

...later in October they tend to bend right with a cold front.

They can do all sorts of funky things.

Here's a track for that 1906 Hurricane.

Without a dance card.....

..you can't tell where it began or ended ;)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1906_Florida_Keys_hurricane

Stay tuned.

BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram