Hurricane Harbor

A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!

Thursday, September 26, 2019

4 PM Update. Karen & Lorenzo and the Circle of Life in the Tropics. What Will Form in October? October is Coming, Prepare, Be Aware... Stay Prepared Hurricane Season Ends November 30th.




Note once again the ULL near Karen...
..is the big player here.
More than the ridge later.
We need to learn more about how they work.


I'm going to be honest with you all ... it's been a long 24 hours for me. I went to the doctor yesterday with sinus issues that I'm used to and was given medication to deal with that... this morning I woke up in more pain from what is obviously a dental issue made worse by me grinding my teeth in pain from the sinus problem. Very typical...add in Fall allergies in NC so decided I'm done and need to go to the dentist for advice and the good news is I have a new dentist who I like. The bad news was she insisted on pulling some molar way up in the back of my mouth near where her Xray's showed "wow my sinus infection was bad" ... so yeah that happened and now I'm on 3 antibiotics (really) and some Tylenol 3 which is not as good as Tylenol 4 but definitely helpful in explaining why I've been missing in action and couldn't get back to you regarding the state of Karen. To be totally honest... except for the fact that I put make up on in Sephora while waiting for my medicine... she's in much better shape right now than me.

That said... the NHC is dying to write her off and drop her like a hot potato (note I can eat mashed potatoes tomorrow...) but like the annoying, pissant mess Karen has been she's got this spark inside that seems to flair up and pulse up beautiful the moment the NHC says in discussion that they are pulling the plug most likely. What really bugs me about this is .........often systems that refuse to die and fade away are the ones that end up being problems. But... Jerry died despite trying to stay alive despite tons of shear being blown at it and Jerry had more of a center than Karen ever has so.................. what will the NHC do?

In truth it's not really an issue because at some point one of three things should happen.

1. It falls apart into an area of squally weather at most a Tropical Depression revived after being downgraded and as it smells land... it pulses up and creates lots of rain and people complain why was it downgraded and the NHC tries to explain without using curse words why it was downgraded. A tropical storm needs a closed center with convection around the center and winds of a certain category and Karen has always been questionable on that YET... the fact that it keeps pulsing up shows something is there other than just rain. (Add in Alanis song... rain on your wedding day ... wink)

2...If unravels and somehow some of the convection crosses over Florida into the Gulf of Mexico and festers there the way it did everywhere else and maybe forms into something there... very low chances.

3... Karen falls apart and eventually the next front picks up it's moisture and takes it all the way to Europe ... or some place far away where remnants of tropical systems go..

And either way even if Karen dies in the middle of the ocean it is still far from any land. Let's put it this way, so many days from land that you wouldn't even pack for it if it was a weekend trip. Again things can change...there is always that possibility with anything tropical or weather in general. First week in October an incredible front is forecast to push down and create worse weather than any model has forecast for Karen.

So just enjoy Karen and Lorenzo and know that for the next several days we are not having to really worry about it ... but it's Hurricane Season until the end of November so always watch the tropics but keep it in perspective!

That's it. I'm not updating today unless something huge happens and going to rest, and take my 3 medications and enjoy the slight buzz from the Tylenol 3 and maybe sip some water the rest of the day.

That's it from the BobbiStorm Blog... diary of a weather person who researches, has chased and loves weather and hopefully I can help you better understand the complicated process that goes on behind the scenes in trying to figure out the forecast and whether to worry on a hurricane or just know it's out there and not a threat today. But... again that first week in October it's forecast to have a strong front and mid October possibly a tropical threat and lastly.. another storm forms behind Lorenzo but how far does it get?

Complete update tomorrow. If you haven't read already please do so and for my close friends here yes I'm following doctors orders and I''m resting...   really. I'll be on Twitter watching in real time as everyone tries to second guess Karen.

Sweet tropical dreams, BobbiStorm @bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram



Trying to keep today's blog short and sweet or at least an easy quick read. Karen as of 5 AM was still a Tropical Storm. The NHC wrote a long discussion that you can read below that sounded more like an editorial and an explanation on why Karen needs to be kicked out of school. Yes, it's true I didn't think there was much left of her last night, but she has put on quite the show this morning. Round convective ball with some attempt at banding, but suddenly the NHC seems concerned as to whether she has a center which I do find is kind of ironic because she looked way worse yesterday and they couldn't find a real center but stuck with her. I understand many models took her to Florida as "something" and that amps up attention, yet many models kill her off before getting there so are we reporting the expected ending or dealing with what is today at this moment. She looks better than she did but her end game is not a pretty one at this point. The NHC unravels her into an open wave, remnant low or whatever the popular phrase is this particular year. Discussion from the NHC below.


Been saying for a while not to get lost in the models and just see what she does and that's what I'm doing as the models have swung around wildly ... even more wildly than the expected dance between Jerry and Karen. The models really have not been good this year, especially as it relates to long term motion vs short term. The 3 day is almost always a given. 

Speaking of Jerry...
... they aren't talking on him anymore.
Yet he and Karen still have strong signatures..
...on Earthnull.


Showing you this because it's interesting.
This sort of Figure 8 of winds.
Early on I talked on how they were connected.
Amazingly after all this time...
...they are still connected.


Currently Karen is forecast to die.
Before ever getting to Florida.
According to the NHC
They have it as a Depression way East of Florida.
East of the Bahamas.
Will see what they do next.

They've become great with headlines.





As for Lorenzo... out at sea.
Swirling around.
Beautiful Major Hurricane.
Safely out at Sea


Eye of Lorenzo below.


Compare with Karen.
Karen is a WEAK TS.
Yet has some explosive cells in there today.


Another view.... 
Karen our big bright ball of clouds.
Dry air over Florida
(wanted to show that)
And moisture from the Caribbean...
...curving up towards the Yucatan.
Into the Gulf of Mexico.


I watched this for a long time last night.
It's bugging me.
It's perfectly aligned with climo for October.
And we are almost into October.

Remember something.
All these fronts with their high pressure ridges..
..protect the East Coast from hurricanes.
(some get thru, it's all in the timing)
But come October... later in Fall.
Those same fronts suck storms up towards land.
What forms in the Gulf of Mexico...
...makes landfall somewhere.
So this bugs me.


And on time with Climo there's the moisture flow.
Models sniffing out development...
..the development I've written about for a while.

Will it be a strong but mishaped tropical storm?
Or a well developed hurricane?
I can list so many examples.
But keeping this short.

So watch the ongoing Karen Drama.
Enjoy the beauty of Lorenzo.
And stay tuned.

My concern currently.
Not for the next day or so...
...but down the road.
Sooner rather than later.
Our focus moves South.



2 issues here.
Taking some meds for a sinus infection so...
...going to rest today and stop watching Karen.

Secondly with regard to this area in the GOM.
October and November in the Tropics.
On any given day... given week.
It depends where the moisture is....
...but it depends on where the fronts are moving.
On any given day that track can change.

Miami gets October hurricanes from the SW.
Tampa got slammed in October.
Big Bend and Panhandle always in play.
Alabama... Mississippi earlier than later.
Just a matter of time before something forms.

Something to remember.
For today enjoy yourselves.
Nothing threatening us ...
... give Thanks and..
Hey Thanksgiving is coming ;)

Pumpkin Pie or Pecan?
Pecan Pie or Apple?

I know we aren't even in Halloween.
But the seasons are a circle.
They go round and round...
...the way the world turns.

Have a wonderful day.

Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter.

 Ps.. nice video for you all... I know this song means much to many, but when we are talking tropical systems they are circles with a center or they are really just rainstorms with lots of bright clouds on satellite imagery. And these days the rules are kind of blurred... but it is what it is. And hurricanes form and then they are gone.... many as soon as they see a hurricane form begin to discuss when it's going to fall apart ... enjoy the hurricane looking good stop trying to be the first to figure out when it dies. Lorenzo ain't bothering anyone enjoy it... then it will be gone to wherever hurricanes go when they die. The moisture moves around the planet.. some end up in England or Iceland or rain themselves out over Canada... then plants grow from their rain and flowers bloom briefly before snow begins to fall and our seasons slip away. It's all part of the circle of life... enjoy each moment in the story... in the circle... in the loop of life.






posted by BobbiStorm @ 6:11 AM

0 Comments:

Post a Comment

<< Home