Hurricane Harbor

A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!

Sunday, September 22, 2019

Updated! 11PM TD13 Forms from #90L TS Karen Flooding in Trinidad and Tobago Jerry Looking Better. 90L Red Hot Looking Should be Lorenzo by Africa



First note the convection (rain) in the GOM...
Florida Straights and actually into Cuba.
This coming week.
High dry heat ridge over the SE.
And Tropical Depression 13 formed Sunday evening.
Next name up is Lorenzo...


Forecast to be a hurricane.

 



Statistics tell the story.
Devil in the detail.
TD13 is a TD.
But it has the same Barometric Pressure...
...as TS Karen shown below.

What will Karen do tomorrow ?
Will see better what Karen has got going.
And where Karen may actually go..

NHC Cone Sunday Night...
...you can compare that in a few days.
To whatever it shows then..


Everyone wants to know what I think on Karen.
Everyone being family and friends in Florida.
Though people in Carolinas and Cuba watching.



Of course Cranky has answers.
I hate counter intuitive solutions.
Time will tell.
Karen may live to tell the tale after all.
Possibly take left side of cone...
...then correct too much later.
Hmnnn

Jerry being Jerry.
Hanging in there.
Slacker, doing it's thing.
Forecast to turn and go out to sea.


I just want to say...
a strong high, hot ridge to the North.
Sitting over warm moist tropical air.
Can sometimes lead to a problem.
Tropically speaking.


I was going to update more but...
...there's not much more to say.
I rested tonight.
Watched the PBS Country Music Special.
Talked to a friend.
Rested... long day today out in the hot sun.
Hopefully be fresh for the morning.
Update the blog then...

Sweet Tropical Dreams, 
BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram.

Ps.. promised y'all a song.
Grew up listening to Country.
It played from every mother's kitchen window.
Just a part of me....


















Going to lead with this story unfolding in real time.
There's flooding and squally weather in the Islands.
Trinidad and Tobago.
Leeward Islands dealing with Karen's existence.

Why Karen could not have had a PTC warning?
I don't know.
I don't know the rules.
I'm sure there are rules.
But it seems sometimes they use it....
...sometimes they don't.
I'd think this might have been a good time.



And in awe of how beautiful Invest 90L is...
...rolling off of Africa.
Swimming in the Water.

Banding, rotation.
Tail wants to form.
I feel as if an eye will pop out soon.
NHC says tonight, tomorrow...
They will get around to it.
I'd say not impacting anything but...
their discussion earlier said:

"Interests in the Cabo Verde Islands should 

monitor the progress of this disturbance. Regardless of 



development, this system is likely to bring locally heavy rainfall

and gusty winds to portions of the southern Cabo Verde Islands on


Monday."

So apparently they have warned Cabo Verde it's there.


I'll update models on Jerry and Karen soon.

In awe of this wave for now...
...things change always but beautiful.







Note models for Karen ...
...making people in FL wonder...


Let's take a minute to look at 90L...
...expected to be Lorenzo soon is also new.
Off the Coast of Africa.



Note storm by Africa forming is Lorenzo
Or will be when NHC does it's thing.
It became 90L late last night.



Weather Nation does a nice job.
Giving them some credit here!
Tropical Alerts being the right term here.
Because it's kind of like 
"Heads up Trinidad and Tobago!!"

See..formed .... warnings up!



There is no eye to judge this by.
So maybe it's not officially making landfall.
But kind of cruising through saying "HI!"



Karen may be a problem.
Or a short term wrinkle.
Either it goes out to sea like Jerty...
...or it wanders West.
We will revisit this later today.
Currently it is starting off it's career...
...making landfall.
Kind of like Imelda.
Except this won't be a 90 minute Tropical Storm.


You can see on MIMIC....
Karen is on a leash to Jerry.
Strong High and short term steering currents.

Watch the video above, turn the sound up. Keep it in mind reading this blog. Thanks!

Going to go long on images and short on words because there really isn't much more to say here this morning other than Trinidad and Tobago have warnings up for a nearby Tropical Storm that seems to have just developed (kind of like Imelda did) and the real show is in the East Atlantic where what will be Tropical Storm Lorenzo that looks truly as if it's about to go hurricane.

I was talking to someone last night late on how Trinidad rarely gets real named storms but the center of the poorly put together Invest 99L was dangerously close to Trinidad and it's associated islands, though the NHC did have a red high chances of development up and yet they had not written any real discussion as it was still only Invest 99L. To be honest I'm not sure it was officially a Tropical depression as it's being blasted by the same area in the Atlantic that was blasting Jerry. Often Highs Pressure and Upper Level Lows can look as if they are giant black, ghost canes as we saw with the one in the Gulf of Mexico that turned into Imelda. They are fun to watch when nothing else is really spinning and I woke up this morning hearing they named Karen and I thought it had to be the African Wave that I wrote about on Twitter last night, beautiful wave with great structure looking like it wasn't to steal the name Karen. But the NHC didn't let and upgraded Invest 99L to Karen leaving the African wave the M name. As there is a map graphic up at the NRL site expect Lorenzo to form soon ... or shortly after they upgrade it to Tropical Depression depending on their mood. Unless some homegrown pops up in the next 12 hours...  and note the next system after this one could become a bigger problem than these Storms tracing the high but let's not borrow trouble and wait and see what happens.


Remember that.... because it's happening.
See the track map up at NRL below.


There it is out there... 
visually stealing the show.
Where does it really go?
That's the real question.


Up close Selfie!
Wow.


Core, banding.
What is there to say beyond that image.


Now let's look at Jerry.
Battling back all night with bright convection.




Jerry may wobble Westish...
but is expected to go out to sea.
  

But really Jerry is a player.
Comes, goes..
Slacker with potential always.

Saved this to compare.
A screenshot from last night.
I know a bit stalkerish.


Jerry sucking in the moisture form the Carib Blob.
That came off North Cuba last night.
Small image.
This morning... Jerry has a core.
It's kicking.
The area below is our new Tropical Storm.
Yes that is a current image.
Below are our players.


 I will update this afternoon with model discussion. Does Karen try to visit South Beach? Does Jerry go out to sea and follow the program? What's up with Lorenzo (that should be named soon) Check back later today and have a beautiful, blessed day.

Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram.

Ps... song this afternoon. I need more better coffee and real grits I didn't make!
Oh wearing my Drunk Donkey shirt this morning in honor of Lorenzo soon to form and Karen and Jerry and it's a good day to wear that shirt!
Really beautiful form there...





















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posted by BobbiStorm @ 6:20 AM

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