A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!
Wednesday, October 02, 2019
October in the Tropics. Lorenzo Moving on to Europe... Something in the Caribbean? Stay Tuned.
Things of Interest.
You can't see Lorenzo but it's way up there in the Atlantic.
Headed to Ireland, GB and Europe.
Old Karen rain remnants out there doing nothing.
Some say it's Karen...others say not.
It's nothing for now.
A wave trying to sneak into the Caribbean.
And our Caribbean area being watched with low chances.
Showing 2 views of the area in our backyard...
Down in the Caribbean forecast to possibly form...
...moving up near the Yucatan.
Low chances but it's a watch and wait set up.
And that is typical this time of year.
Let's pretend we are playing football.
This quarterback is down there...
...by himself.
Waiting for his team to show up.
He looks up and there are all these linebackers.
He decides to just sit a while and wait.
And that works as the high will go away.
Everything is being held South....
...and shear is shifting everything to the East for now.
Something is there but nothing is happening.
Something very weak could form.
Generally this is not the big concern I had.
But it does shows where our focus moves in October.
Every other run of models show a hurricane.
Then nothing on the next run.
Then a hurricane.
You just sit and look at the models and go:
"yeah right" and move on til tomorrow.
Some models show waves in the Atlantic trying...
to develop or they run low into the Carib.
Then sneak up on us from the South.
And that brings us to the real point today.
It's the first week of October.
And the main pattern is shown above.
Note things can form in many places.
But the most likely tracks are there.
Where we are with the yellow area being watched.
October is like that time of year just before hurricanes start spinning in mid August and everyone starts saying it's going to be a weak season or a dead season and nothing is happening and meteorologists online begin bickering using acronyms others don't understand and then while they are arguing over how dead the season may be the season begins to show development everywhere. October is kind of like that, we move towards that second peak of the season and wait for cold fronts to finally move into Carolina but we know they won't make it through Florida and that's where cold fronts stall out leaving themselves draped across Florida and the tropics come alive again at the same time that fronts become more frequent and any tropical area that does form can track across Florida in October. People worry on other times of year but October is prime time in South Florida. That doesn't mean it cannot happen in the Northern Gulf of Mexico or something can side swipe us in the Carolinas but October is prime time for Florida. It's a secret many of us know but the media spends the whole summer making people worry on a Florida landfall and then out of the South...somewhere ... a system surprises us.
An excellent post below by a very good meteorologist. Remember it and remember it well.
South #Florida: although there's nothing on the horizon now, October is historically the month with the most hurricane encounters here. They tend to be weaker than the Aug & Sep visitors, & generally come from the west/southwest rather than east/southeast. #Miami#HurricaneSeasonpic.twitter.com/UJi6YGUexd
Tropics Friday. Karen's Chapter Ending. Lorenzo For Now Spinning Beautiful. What Else is Down the Road in the Tropics? Time Will Tell in this Circle Game.
We can see Karen slowly coming apart.
Lorenzo taking up half the ocean it seems.
#tropical update #blog out in a bit. Nothing new to add but to watch the tail end of fronts coming down as we move into #October. Sorry bit breathy on some meds. Doing so much better. Thanks for ur patience & updates while I’ve been there flint https://t.co/vZ3Rogvgxapic.twitter.com/OpLB0SjBZF
The last chapters are being written on Karen currently as the NHC has downgraded her to Tropical Depression status ... kind of breaking the news to her gently I suppose... as we all knew this was happening though not sure Karen expected it. Karen has always been able to "pulse up" when needed, but as we saw with the overwhelming shear aimed at Jerry... she too will respond in kind and in theory go quietly off into the books for 2019. She was always a questionable tropical storm vs a strong tropical disturbance, though to stay together so long there was probably some center there holding her together even if the NHC and recon had problems at times trying to pin it do
wn. Karen impacted several places with strong, heavy rains, flooding and creating power outages.
Good discussion from NHC. You can see from the image above this chapter seems to be ending for Karen and Lorenzo will take a long time to come apart as it's incredibly big, beautiful and far out at sea not hurting anyone.
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/
MIATCDAT3+shtml/271442.shtml
Lorenzo is still "oh my gosh gorgeous" but on it's way, stair stepping down in intensity as hurricanes like people have a prime period in their life that can never be totally maintained but he will be remembered for being strong like Hurricane Gabrielle was years ago in 1989.
Karma is funny. In 1989 I thought on naming a baby Gabrielle if it was a girl as I was expecting and Gabrielle was a beautiful storm. It was a boy, his name is Mendy (common name in Chabad) and then I found out my Great, Great, Great Grandfather's name was Gabriel doing Ancestry and laughed thinking how close we were... a few months ago my daughter had a baby boy and her husband is an Israeli and they chose the name Gabriel for my grandson. I told my son-in-law that was amazing, you knew it was a family name? He smiled and shook his head no and said "what goes around comes around" and it's true. So I ended up with a grandson Gabriel vs a daughter named Gabrielle. Both good names and yet many forget Gabrielle because 1989 was all about Hugo. 2019 is far from over... and come December looking back we will see if any hurricane comes along that rivals Dorian and though that sounds impossible... last year this time of year we had no thoughts on Michael becoming a Cat 5 landfalling hurricane. The tropics always hold surprises, much like life.
Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram
Ps... I don't go personal as much these days.. but my daughter Miriam (Gabriel's mother) is an artist as is her brother and another sister... art runs in our veins whether we are painting, writing or creating music. The video reminded me of Miriam doing art somewhere... won't say where...
And sorry for any typos, writing today was therapeutic (it's a blog.. diary online) and going to leave it however it ends up... so hope you enjoyed.
Updated 6 PM - The Novel of TS Karen... Center Stage... Lorenzo Going Major Hurricane Safely Out At Sea Now. Jerry POOF Post Tropical. Models Maps and Music
6 PM
The update I said I would do.
But there isn't much new to say.
The Fujiwhara dance for Karen...
...has been with the ULL.
And Karen is losing.
One of my favorite Carolina Meteorologists.
Good map of the tropics tonight.
Karen and Lorenzo.
So let's look at Karen tonight.
Not a pretty site.
The problem with #TropicalStormKaren and its upper level low. Currently Karen is on borrowed time. Can it survive to intensify down the line? Doubtful but we will know soon enough. pic.twitter.com/hAPDk5mPxq
The NHC by their own words said they were not sure of the intensity of Karen measured in different ways earlier during a rain storm. I'm not going complain about the NHC on this one as they are trying to provide continuity to the viewing public they are trying to protect and on the small chance Karen ramps up again (and it has been known to pulse up erratically) they don't want people to let their guard down. They are walking back their previous intensity forecast with lowered expectations and unless Karen does something fast, it will most likely be downgraded to a Depression at 11 PM. My guess, you never really know what the NHC will do but that's my thought at 6 PM. Leaving you the link to the discussion that explains the reasons the NHC maintained Karen as a Tropical Storm when it is very difficult to even find it on satellite imagery.
The Upper Level Low is winning that battle and even if it moves away soon there may not be enough of Karen to put back together once it finds positive conditions. Shear killed off Jerry and shear is killing off Karen. Perhaps the shear deserves an award of some kind for protecting the East Coast from what could have been a serious landfall by Jerry and a second hit from Karen. Humberto for that matter could have been a problem, but it was blasted by shear so let's call this the year of Shear and give shear a thanks because tropical systems can avoid High Pressure but when Shear races after them slamming them relentlessly with shear from strong Upper Level Lows the cyclone always loses. They can be powerful deal breakers and in rare circumstances the ULL can ventilate a cyclone and intensify it but it can also kill it faster than you can say "Post Tropical Cyclone Jerry" if you see what I mean.
#hurricane#Lorenzo as beautiful as I thought he would be. Far away. No city in any wind probabilities you can just admire the power and intensity of a real hurricane pic.twitter.com/oCYxkNELQ1
So until we know if Karen survives.
We will have to put those long range models aside.
If it does survive or come back...
..we will revisit the situation.
In truth Karen has come back often.
And despite being weak.
It delivered a strong blow to Puerto Rico.
An island just putting itself back together after Maria.
and impacted Trinidad an island rarely impacted.
So as I've said before Karen is tricky.
I keep waiting for some surprise move.
This is good video posted on Twitter.
Karen has caused flooding on multiple islands.
And lastly before talking Hurricane History below...
..know models are beginning to latch onto the GOM storm.
I've mentioned it many times recently.
Been concerned on something forming there.
With a strong high to the North...
...and so much tropical, moist air to the South.
It's only a matter of time.
And it has Climo stamped all over it.
Now for some Hurricane History on Loopers.
Also...there's been much talk on Jeanne and Betsy.
Two of our favorite looping hurricanes.
Note Betsy was a strong hurricane ..
...going into her 2nd loop.
Weak on 1st loop.
Jeanne a weak storm beginning the loop.
Strengthening as it neared Landfall.
Again cone for Karen.
Can Karen survive until she gets to ....
...where she can intensify?
That's far down the road.
Though she has been tricky.
And often full of surprises.
Putting this video here so you can see ...
..the ongoing drama of Karen.
And the Mid to Upper Level Low.
I'll just say ULL but that's to be exact.
Turn the sound up... or just watch.
11 AM no real changes to track.
NHC keeps intensity at 45 MPH.
Worth noting they can't find the center.
"The initial position is a little difficult to locate"
Probably because it may not have a real center.
Discussion explains the problems ....
..and their solution maintaining status quo.
Tends to work often...
..especially with systems that pulse up and down.
GFS and EURO barely see Karen.
They definitely don't hold onto it.
Tho other models do keep it around.
You can find the whole Discussion at NHC.
Cone basically the same.
Continue reading if you haven't...
..it's from around 9:30 this morning.
I'll update after the 5 PM.
Recon is scouring Karen ....
...trying to ascertain it's real center.
Stay tuned.
PS Lorenzo is a beautiful 85 MPH Hurricane.
I'll discuss Lorenzo later this afternoon.
Of concern currently are models showing Karen..
... looping or traveling near the East Coast.
Jerry at the top with the X in it...
Post Tropical.
Tropical Storm Karen center stage.
Hurricane Lorenzo far to the East.
Yellow area 10% anchored near the Yucatan.
You know the reality of life is after a Major Hurricane such as Dorian everyone is a little ragged and nervous when they hear there is a tropical system out there somewhere in the Atlantic. But, the reality is that you don't see a Hurricane Dorian form all the time and even if we get another Major Hurricane it won't be Dorian. When Hurricane Andrew rolled West towards Miami in 1992 many people say Hugo that had trashed South Carolina in 1989, the scenes of devastation were ripe in our terrified minds. In reality you have to take every tropical system as it's own unique entity and even mild mannered storms can become problematic when they switch directions and take detours towards your town. And, often they take a detour and go around whatever the problem in the road is (in our case a strong High Pressure Ridge) and then they continue on their way as if they had never turned right. That doesn't mean there is no danger of Karen impacting the Florida coast, but it means it has to be measured in concern by it's actual intensity and strength and monitored for any changes in intensity, strength or track. So keep that in mind while reading things online, looking at models or reading the rest of this blog. Thanks.
It has vortexes and secondary mid level circulations.
One has developed N of PR.
It's redeveloped more than moved there.
They are watching San Juan radar..
Note the Tweet I made yesterday...
..trying to show Karen's movement.
As the NHC has been trying to nail down...
...the exact center for days.
Tropical Storms can be more complicated at times to understand than hurricanes. Easy to follow a well developed eye. #Karen & #PuertoRico She lifts North but her associated weather goes in multiple directions. https://t.co/vZ3Rogvgxa has impacted land more often than not. pic.twitter.com/sfVLpqh7dn
Bottom line here is two fold. Karen is not really moving as much as reorganizing everywhere near Puerto Rico and while we sit here analyzing it's 7th day (if it has a 7th day) it is pouring still over parts of PR and the Virgin Islands that have already had flooding and there are power outages. So really where are our priorities? Talking model fantasies or dealing with reality of what PR and VI are going through and remembering Karen could once again have something up it's sleeve and surprise us closer to Florida way, way down the tropical road?
And my forever logic is when something doesn't make sense, it is possible it's you don't have all the facts. And the reality is it is possible while Karen is sitting behind some stop sign or try and picture yourself stuck in an hour plus road stop on I95 while they are doing construction and an accident happened and you aren't going anywhere any time soon... it's possible something else is going to happen. You know when Waze shows you the time of arrival and then there's an accident or multiple accidents up ahead and you begin to get notices of problems and the time of estimated arrival keeps getting further and further away?
Yes.. it's possible something else happens. It's also possible some other system begins to try and form or low pressure forms nearby and gives Karen a path away from the pesky high pressure or an Upper Level Low forms and everything changes and I mean everything as in all your worst fears may go away or things you never worried on may happen. Or Karen gets blown away much like Jerry did but that happens much closer to land so somewhere, someone gets a rain shower from what was once Karen. Just so many ways to end this chapter in the 2019 Hurricane Season.
Stay tuned. I'll update later today with more model discussion and some videos.
Much love and thanks for your patience, it's been a long season for us with repetitive patterns but watch out we may have a new sort of system soon and as we move deeper towards October we look towards the SW Caribbean. Yes that's foreshadowing...
Location: Miami, Raleigh, Crown Heights, Florida, United States
Weather Historian. Studied meteorology and geography at FIU. Been quoted in Wall Street Journal, Washington Post & everywhere else... Lecturer, stormchaser, writer, dancer. If it's tropical it's topical ... covering the weather & musing on life. Follow me on Twitter @ https://twitter.com/#!/BobbiStorm
