Asteroids - Volcanoes - Coronal Mass Ejections CMEs and Other Natural Disasters That Can Happen on Any Given Day But Usually We Get Lucky. How Long Will Our Luck Last?

 

My Caribbean satellite image of the day above.

The non tropical kind as we are all about geology today!

Caught in the wind flow.... 

2 sides of a natural disaster.

Gray, caustic ash covering everything...

..beautiful colorful satellite imagery.

What do you focus on?

I took this picture years ago storm chasing.

It was the place to be....

...TWC was there as were all the media and chasers.

Not the worst storm but fun to be out in...

Most people look at the palm trees.

To me the wild part was the water.

In South Florida it only gets that nasty color...

...when a bad storm is brewing.

Where do you focus?

On the colorful imagery from the volcano?

Or the gritty natural disaster the residents are facing?

And many had to evacuate.

Those cruise ships are busy now!

Link to Weatherboy's article below.

Kudos to their help in evacuations!

Yesterday there was an odd incident.

What looked like a meteor or asteroid fell to the Earth.

Looked like a scene out of Starman to me.

Asteroids happen. Meteorites fall.

But what was that shooting star like glow on the horizon?

Looked a lot like the scene in Starman.

Great movie ...by the way.

Maybe NetFlix?

Apparently it was expected but.........

....it came much closer than expected.

Well THAT happened!

What would you think if you saw that?

Aliens or Asteroids?

As I wrote in the previous blog about our Caribbean volcano ... sometimes those things you worry on happening actually do and the list is long for what could happen, yet blessedly does not happen very often. It was predicted that asteroid would come close to earth (close being a matter of perspective, close as in "you won't see a thing" vs "oh my gosh WHAT IS THAT???!!!") and it does make some wonder what would happen had it been worse! Well, the good news is the partying on South Beach is still going on (good or bad from your perspective) and no dinosaurs were killed off in this encounter of the close kind. Years back part of the Caribbean was carved out... rearranged by a large asteroid credited with getting rid of those huge previously mentioned dinosaurs. And that begs the reminder that if it happened once, it could in theory happen again.

https://www.smithsonianmag.com/science-nature/we-finally-know-how-much-dino-killing-asteroid-reshaped-earth-180958222/ Excellent article. If you want to know what it was like before the asteroid and you're in LA may I suggest you go to the La Brea Tarpits, not in the depth of summer mind you but otherwise a wonderful educational, peaceful attraction near where I once lived!

Open again... with precautions.

Seems the dinosaurs had more to fear than the plague!

Who knew an asteroid would knock out their world??

Do you ever worry or wonder on rare natural disasters?

I know many of you do while obsessing on hurricanes.

Many meteorologists are obsessed with the Northern Lights.

We watch the sky, we study the atmosphere.

It's on everyone's bucket list.

Some also obsess on a possibility of a CME.

Why you ask?

Read below.

Like Volcanoes they can be mesmerizing.

Yet they can also be disastrous!

Yet people Google them all the time...

...or watch them on YouTube.

Some volcanoes are bright and colorful.

Others gray and gloomy.

And yes it's still erupting in the Caribbean.

(on it's anniversary....

..astrologers must be having a field day!)

Anyway read on about CMEs and see....

...why so many obsess on them especially today.

Imagine........

Not even being able to go online to see if 
#FACEBOOKDOWN 

You want to complain and Twitter is down too!

It's all down.........

Hmnn.

Then again my husband ....

...will be able to read his paper by the glow!

Well on the balcony anyway... keep reading.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carrington_Event

The devil IS in the details. Can you imagine reading the paper by the glow from the Northern Lights? Can you imagine all you might be able to read is old newspapers, because IF such an event happened today it would be hard to go online and get your breaking news. We could be thrown back into the past if such an event occurred until everyone could get back online and how long would that take I wonder. Read the details... down to Havana Cuba ... click on that link and read the many details not shown below that came from such a natural event that rarely happens. First there were sun spots... then telegraphs didn't work and back then that was the main form of communication. Does your latest iPhone or Galaxy have an App to stay online in the case of a Coronal Mass Ejection aka CME?  I wonder...

The truth is whether it's an asteroid from outer space or a volcano rearranging your trip to the Great Northwest or the Caribbean or a rare Cat 5 Hurricane slams into Jacksonville Florida where they rarely see hurricanes and yet these events can happen. CMEs aren't just for the paranoid but then again if you have never checked them out you may never know what happened to your phone, internet and possibly what caused your power outage which obviously would be freaky not to be able to go online and find out why your lights were out. Yes, it could shut down not just cable but Roku and NetFlix... "oh my!" 

This also begs the question would you prefer aliens to an asteroid? Personally unless I knew if they were good aliens or bad aliens I might prefer Mother Nature problems to those of the other kind. 

From far away volcanoes are beautiful, but close up they are deadly at worst and difficult at best. 

I'll take hurricanes you can track for days and models sometimes properly predict ten days out to something sudden that comes out of nowhere and you aren't sure what hit you! Again, everyone made fun of the models that showed the Houston area getting epic amounts of rain and then Harvey did even worse than the models predicted! Go figure the models won that one though Houston lost the ongoing battle with the bayous creeping up across the concrete landscape where people live good lives except for when a Harvey comes to visit!

Stay tuned....... 2021 just started kicking.... one can only wonder what else Mother Nature has up her sleeve this year! Maybe it's a good surprise!!! You know like everyone can see the Northern Lights without having to go to Norway and our power grid stays on so we can share videos and talk about it!

And thanks to Sandman for always reminding me about things I forget from "the year without summer" to what could happen if a CME hits!

Sweet Tropical Dreams,

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram

Ps I used so many Google images today to remind y'all how reliant we have become on being able to quickly Google anything from asteroids to volcanoes!! 

https://weatherboy.com/explosive-eruption-occurs-at-la-soufriere-volcano-in-caribbean/

2020 Hurricane Season - 1 Month til June 1st. A Busy Hurricane Season Forecast with Possible Landfall Patterns. Looking Back at 1999, 2007 and 1886 & the Indianola Hurricane Matagorda Bay Texas.

Remember when?

2017....  a year few of us will forget.

Could we see a replay of such a busy season?

Yes, it's very possible.

In 1886 before satellite imagery......

... 3 storms all danced close by as they did in 2017.

We know that from the track information.

Note the month of August below.

And know September had multiple storms too.

3 Major Hurricanes in August 1886

 Storm #5 

8/15 Hispaniola

8/20 Indianola

Storm #6

8/19 Jamaica

8/21 Cuba

8/22 Nassau

Storm #7

8/20 TS forms near Bermuda

Becomes a Cat 3... 

Impacts George Bank

Vessels lost, ship damage.

Becomes a N Atlantic player.

The time frames overlap.

Landfalls overlap.

Imagine the satellite imagery today.....

Note 1886 is most famous for Storm #5

Indianola Hurricane - Matagorda Bay, Texas

Yes similar track to 1900 Hurricane... 

Similar but different.

Something to think on as its a month til Hurricane Season.

So Happy May 1st! New Month here as we zip through 2020 always wondering "what's next?" as it's been a slow, motion train wreck since the virus began spreading across the country and masks became all the rage to show off your favorite team, hobby or level of hypochondria. Okay, seriously I've tried to go slow with news of a forecast busy hurricane season that many experts have predicted could include multiple landfalls along the US coast as highly possible. I don't like pulling the mask off the old Lone Ranger nor do I like pouring oil onto a fire or screaming "FIRE!" in a crowded theater but the time has come to get serious about the Atlantic Hurricane Season that begins one month from now officially, but can begin earlier in reality should something in the Gulf of Mexico or off the East Coast spin up impressively enough for the NHC to give it a name and begin issuing advisories.

Let's look at 3 possibly analog hurricane seasons that began early and ended way too late for most of us. Remember every hurricane season is unique, however many have commonalities from positive conditions that deliver a busy season to the similar tracks taken due to obviously similar atmospheric and oceanic conditions. They are other years I'm concerned on but going with these three today as they all were busy seasons when the water was warm, the wind shear was low (allowing for vigorous waves to develop into Major Hurricanes) and had similar tracks as predicted as possible by many concerned on this hurricane season.

Let's work backwards and begin with the 2017 Hurricane Season as it began extremely early on April 19th with a very early season system and multiple warnings in the media by experts that an early hurricane season doesn't mean it will be a busy hurricane season. That is true as often a May storm forms and then we wait until late August for the next storm to form but it's not rule that isn't always broken but a much repeated statement when a system pops up before the local networks have even begun airing Hurricane Preparations stories.

2017 was an odd year in that weather was in the news often and everyone watched in real time as New Orleans itself had a tornado in February. In June Tropical Storm Cindy made landfall near that part of the Gulf of Mexico to be followed by Harvey that made landfall to the West of there but slid back into the GOM and made a second landfall. Finally Nate made landfall on that general part of the GOM coastline making people in Nola and much of Florida and Houston and elsewhere wish the 2017 Hurricane Season would be one for the history books.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2017_Atlantic_hurricane_season

Next we have 1999 another busy hurricane season with tracks similar to the predicted areas of concern for 2020. Again we see long trackers and hurricanes aimed at the US coast as well as some Caribbean and Cuban activity. The first storm formed on June 11th and ended on November 23rd leaving many of us happy to see it go. With 8 hurricanes and 5 major hurricanes it was one for the record books. Also warm water, light shear and all the typical positive factors that bring Hurricanes to our door along the Hurricane Coast. As a trivia point it's worth noting Louisiana and Texas had tornadoes on Easter Sunday in April of 1999. Obviously I'm watching for years with similar severe weather prior to the Hurricane Season that coincide with other factors forecast for the 2020 Hurricane Season.

https://www.weather.gov/shv/event_1999-04-03_tornadoes

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1999_Atlantic_hurricane_season

1886 

Now I want to go back into history ... far distant history to 1886 when the Atlantic saw a very busy hurricane season that when no less than 7 storms made landfall. The season began on June 13th and ended on October 26th, but it is worth noting the numbers are very similar to what is forecast for this coming year ... especially when you add in the 1886 Hurricane Season didn't have satellite imagery available so one can only imagine the additional storms that may have existed further from the coastlines nor not mentioned in ship reports; in those days if the ship went down with the storm there wasn't always a record of it being hit by a tropical system.

Note that all 3 of these seasons...

...look similar when glancing at the maps.

Each is different but many commonalities.

I cannot say enough about how horrendous the loss of life was from the 1886 Hurricane Season during a time when communities with busy, Boom Towns woke up totally unprepared for what the next day or two would deliver to their doorstep. In a time before Hurricane forecasting all they knew was the barometer was dropping and weather was moving in but rather than a typical afternoon thunderstorm a deadly hurricane packing winds of 150 mph washed away some communities such as Indianola Texas and many bodies were never found in small bayou towns along the coast so the death toll could be much higher. In those days when some single young man managed to survive such a catastrophe he got out of town fast whatever way he could and he didn't document his trip on Instagram... he simply left for greener pastures .... often ones where he decided a snow storm was better than whatever it was that just wiped his home off the map. 

In 2020 we complain about how bad a long term forecast is because it was predicated that it was possible that the African Wave would develop into a hurricane and impact Georgia and it made landfall in South Carolina; oh my goodness the critics on Twitter and in WhatsApp groups go crazy. A storm tries to form down near the Yucatan and everyone debates if it will live or die off and doubts it can possibly become a strong hurricane than slams into the Florida Panhandle as a Category 5 Hurricane. 

I'm not saying 2020 will look exactly as the above mentioned hurricane seasons did but I can tell you that according to the forecast conditions and track patterns expected it could end up looking very similar. What I can tell you is that unlike the citizens of Indianola in 1886 you will be given much warning way before it makes landfall, but before waiting for a Hurricane Warning to be posted you better be ready early this year. Unless something miraculous occurs, Covid-19 is expected to be a factor in our lives throughout this coming hurricane season especially early in the season. Supply chain factors have already become a problem for certain products such as the ever important paper products and protein from pork to chicken to beef being at some times hit hard. Note if you have a lake, river or any place to fish near you ... you may want to learn to take up fishing and if you are a vegetarian ... good luck with Tofu. If there's no tofu stock up on dried beans and pasta if you can find them... Oh, yeast is apparently worth more than toilet paper currently across the nation.

Recent quick trip to the Grocery Store.

We went during a rain storm yesterday.

 A food Lion in Raleigh.

Extremely clean.

Aisles marked carefully for 1 Way travel.

Employees had masks and gloves on...

...so did the customers.

Publix moved into North Carolina.

Many transplanted Floridians live here.

As much as I love Publix... not as clean.

At the registers they wore  masks... no gloves.

My husband ran in for some Kosher chicken..

... grabbed it, got out...got pictures for me.

They are limiting popular non-perishables.

Yeah that happened.

We are stocked... not going out for a while.

Well, for walks and exercise maybe.

But not shopping any time soon.

Amazon has been working well otherwise.

So I am begging you.......

....prepare EARLY for the Hurricane Season.

Every trip to the store by one extra thing.

Because I can't imagine how people will shop...

... if they have to wait hours to get into the storm.

With proper social distancing....

...and many items already gone.

It won't be pretty.

Prepare early........

... you can use non-perishables anytime.

That's why they are popular.

If you have a Panera type store near you.

Buy bread early, freeze it if you have space.

Yeast is gone and the bread aisles aren't full.

Okay, lot's of Dave's Killer Bread.

I buy it, use it sparingly.

Lasts, great bread but expensive.

The cheap white bread is gone, gone, gone...

One last note on 1886......

...a picture after the Fire of 1886 in Key West.

While they were spared hurricanes....

...they were in rebuilding mode from the fire.

A personal footnote to this discussion on 1886 is that it's the year my family moved to Key West. The timing was most likely dictated to by the 1886 fire that destroyed a good part of the town as people needed products and they were already there because of the Cigar Industry. A great, great grandfather was in the Tinware Business originally from England and as after the fire Key West insisted buildings have metal rooftops and that's how we ended up with tin roofs for the cat to walk on and how he established his tinware and crockery business while his sons traveled to Cuba often buying tobacco and involved in the cigar business.

So those are my thoughts. There are models showing a "low" forming off the East Coast and other long range models are trying to close off a low pressure system in the North Gulf of Mexico and down in the Caribbean there has been an on and off spin going on that isn't that uncommon in busy years to see. The Epac is forecast to come alive again soon with what should be a named storm.

Have you started making a list yet? 

Please do so... a list for food, supplies and to figure out where you would go and shelter if you need to evacuate in the Year of Covid-19.

Good luck. 

Prayers to everyone to stay safe, well and sane this weekend.

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram.

Ps... check this video out, it's short and informative... packing of beef in tin cans began here apparently so next time you buy Spam for a hurricane... remember Indianola!

October in the Tropics. Lorenzo Moving on to Europe... Something in the Caribbean? Stay Tuned.

Things of Interest.

You can't see Lorenzo but it's way up there in the Atlantic.

Headed to Ireland, GB and Europe.

Old Karen rain remnants out there doing nothing.

Some say it's Karen...others say not.

It's nothing for now.

A wave trying to sneak into the Caribbean.

And our Caribbean area being watched with low chances.

Showing 2 views of the area in our backyard...

Down in the Caribbean forecast to possibly form...

...moving up near the Yucatan.

Low chances but it's a watch and wait set up.

And that is typical this time of year.

Let's pretend we are playing football.

This quarterback is down there...

...by himself.

Waiting for his team to show up.

He looks up and there are all these linebackers.

He decides to just sit a while and wait.

And that works as the high will go away.

Everything is being held South....

...and shear is shifting everything to the East for now.

Something is there but nothing is happening.

Something very weak could form.

Generally this is not the big concern I had.

But it does shows where our focus moves in October.

Every other run of models show a hurricane.

Then nothing on the next run.

Then a hurricane.

You just sit and look at the models and go:

"yeah right" and move on til tomorrow.

Some models show waves in the Atlantic trying...

to develop or they run low into the Carib.

Then sneak up on us from the South.

And that brings us to the real point today.

It's the first week of October.

And the main pattern is shown above.

Note things can form in many places.

But the most likely tracks are there.

Where we are with the yellow area being watched.

October is like that time of year just before hurricanes start spinning in mid August and everyone starts saying it's going to be a weak season or a dead season and nothing is happening and meteorologists online begin bickering using acronyms others don't understand and then while they are arguing over how dead the season may be the season begins to show development everywhere. October is kind of like that, we move towards that second peak of the season and wait for cold fronts to finally move into Carolina but we know they won't make it through Florida and that's where cold fronts stall out leaving themselves draped across Florida and the tropics come alive again at the same time that fronts become more frequent and any tropical area that does form can track across Florida in October. People worry on other times of year but October is prime time in South Florida. That doesn't mean it cannot happen in the Northern Gulf of Mexico or something can side swipe us in the Carolinas but October is prime time for Florida. It's a secret many of us know but the media spends the whole summer making people worry on a Florida landfall and then out of the South...somewhere ... a system surprises us. 

An excellent post below by a very good meteorologist. Remember it and remember it well.

South #Florida: although there's nothing on the horizon now, October is historically the month with the most hurricane encounters here. They tend to be weaker than the Aug & Sep visitors, & generally come from the west/southwest rather than east/southeast. #Miami #HurricaneSeason pic.twitter.com/UJi6YGUexd

— Brian McNoldy (@BMcNoldy) October 1, 2019

Showing that map again.

Look at October.

22 storms track across South Florida.

Every which way they can.

Think on that a while.

I'll update tomorrow.

Oh wait... Lorenzo.

Very cool storm really.

Lucky for us it wanted to go to Great Britain

And Europe.

And helps move the seasons along ....

...dislodging the cool air up by the poles.

Keep watching those cold fronts!

If you think I'm a long read.

And if you like long reads.

Here's a great one on hurricane history.

http://digitalcollections.fiu.edu/tequesta/files/1953/53_1_01.pdf

In early October they can go any which way they can..

...later in October they tend to bend right with a cold front.

They can do all sorts of funky things.

Here's a track for that 1906 Hurricane.

Without a dance card.....

..you can't tell where it began or ended ;)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1906_Florida_Keys_hurricane

Stay tuned.

BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram

Tropics Tuesday. Caribbean Wave that was X96L Playing Peek a Boo... NHC says Nothing Gonna Form NADA for 5 days. Okay.. Watch Off Coast of Carolinas Down the Road. Weak Waves Wander West into the Caribbean.

I want to point out two things.

While models "agree" nothing is forming soon.

Both GFS and the EURO show the same thing.

Increased moisture in the Caribbean down the road.

Rare to see agreement with them.

www.windy.com

Always worth watching waves in that area.

Waves that do not develop end up there.

More on that later.

What is not open for business in early August.

Is open for business in late August!

Note Rob from www.crownweather.com below.

He offers suggestions.

His site is a paid for service site.

But he posts on Twitter and you can follow along.

Now let's look at the tropics today.

Love this loop Mike has on his main page.

www.spaghettimodels.com

An interesting loop.
Allows you to see our part of the world.
The front moving off of the East Coast.
Kind of hanging out off the coast of Carolina.
That happens often.
Will that next fast moving feature give it a shove?
Or what?

An old wave is flaring up near PR.
This keeps happening do you notice that?
Early August it doesn't develop.
What happens in September?
Just leaving that thought in your head.

Then we have X96L.
An interesting tropical wave.
Yes it IS a tropical wave.
It was downgraded from Invest status.
And yet it keeps rolling west.
It's a tropical wave.
Weak tropical waves move West.
Sometimes.......
Sometimes they find a friendlier environment.
Sometimes they just drift into the EPAC
Or get blown apart by shear.
This is where we are today with 96L



OLD GRAPHIC
Model Fail

Models showed it developing.
Models implied it would lift WNW.
As it stayed weak it went West.

Yesterday X96L looked like a player.

It was literally spinning on some loops.

One image doesn't really tell the whole story.

But it was an impressive image.

Then it went poof.

Nice naked wave.

Nice bones.

But looked like a goner.

Going back to the original blue red images.

Almost hard to find last night ....

This morning like the proverbial cat...

... the cat came back.

The cat that was supposed to be Chantal.

In the Caribbean now... South of Hispaniola.

Still moving West.

Moving W through dry air.

Yet finding ways to maintain convection.

Go figure.

I point this out not because it's becoming Chantal...

But I'm saying Chantal is the next name.

The name everyone thought 96L would get.

What I am saying is should it survive...

Where does it go?

Always worth watching these sort of waves.

Many times Invests and TDs that died away.

Then they come back closer to shore.

I don't want to offer a few examples.

Because I'm just saying it's fun to watch.

Not screaming shark.

Let's look at Earthnull.

It's a wave.

You see not closed.

But a kink.. a "wave" in the wind.

A small reflection where X96L is now.

Another kink for the wave that's behind it... 

Note the graphics below.

We are in Tropical Wave Season.

Dabuh loves waves.

Dabuh is smart.

Waves that don't die completely can become problems.

Another area to wonder on is off the SE coast.

There is a small chance of a set up coming.

A weak set up and most likely too weak to get a status.

But the pattern continues so over the next 3 weeks.

This pattern begs you to keep watching there.

Good loop to use often.

Especially when there is nothing going on.

It's an official loop so valuable.

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/day0-7loop.html

On the last day...

...a small low forms off of the Carolinas.

Maybe just a low.

Nontropical but interesting.

Also interesting is the 5 day rain projections.

That's a lot of rain just off the E Coast.

Special Extra Credit... 

Extrapolate this persistent pattern into September.

We could have serious hurricane problems.

Remember what I said yesterday?

Mike used my graphic today.

So please read yesterday's blog if you have not.

Mike is so smart.

Few realize how smart Mike is.

I've always know Mike was smart.

If you didn't read yesterday's blog.

Please do... 

...it shows how climo works.

You know the average times hurricanes form.

Every year is unique.

But it's a good guide in the slow times.

Because click bait online will say otherwise.

They will say so sooo slow.

Maybe nothing going to form?

"What's wrong with the tropics?"

Nothing is "wrong" we are right on schedule.

For an old fashioned, scary hurricane season.

With waves becoming named storms.

With hurricanes forming.

Moving WNW around the high pressure.

And then... taking aim at a city on our coast.

Aim at the islands in the way.

Everyone could be in it to quote a song.

And NOTE for Florida.

When we have a wet summer.

We often end up with a storm in October.

Out of the SW catching a front.

We have fronts still so worried.

As it's been an extremely wet summer there.

So stay tuned.

Shop online or offline.

Buy hurricane supplies.

Go to the Dollar Store...

...money is tight.

Or if you shop there often.

Look for hurricane supplies.

So much there it's unreal.

For a dollar!

Every trip pick up one supply.

Many teachers live at the Dollar Store.

They stock teacher's supplies :)

Buy water.

Buy batteries.

By canned food.

Buy paper products.

As for the tropics.

Fun to watch X96L put on a show.

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram.

Follow me there for up to date discussion ...

Ps...a wonderful Jimmy Buffet song.

I'm not saying Jamaica is getting a hurricane.

I'm saying sometimes mistakes are made.

Models made a big mistake with 96L before.

Only following models is like...

...throwing caution to the wind.

If they don't make sense you have to wonder.