A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!
Tuesday, August 06, 2019
Tropics Tuesday. Caribbean Wave that was X96L Playing Peek a Boo... NHC says Nothing Gonna Form NADA for 5 days. Okay.. Watch Off Coast of Carolinas Down the Road. Weak Waves Wander West into the Caribbean.
I want to point out two things.
While models "agree" nothing is forming soon.
Both GFS and the EURO show the same thing.
Increased moisture in the Caribbean down the road.
An interesting loop.
Allows you to see our part of the world.
The front moving off of the East Coast.
Kind of hanging out off the coast of Carolina.
That happens often.
Will that next fast moving feature give it a shove?
Or what?
An old wave is flaring up near PR.
This keeps happening do you notice that?
Early August it doesn't develop.
What happens in September?
Just leaving that thought in your head.
Then we have X96L.
An interesting tropical wave.
Yes it IS a tropical wave.
It was downgraded from Invest status.
And yet it keeps rolling west.
It's a tropical wave.
Weak tropical waves move West.
Sometimes.......
Sometimes they find a friendlier environment.
Sometimes they just drift into the EPAC
Or get blown apart by shear.
This is where we are today with 96L
OLD GRAPHIC
Model Fail
Models showed it developing.
Models implied it would lift WNW.
As it stayed weak it went West.
Yesterday X96L looked like a player.
It was literally spinning on some loops.
One image doesn't really tell the whole story.
But it was an impressive image.
Then it went poof.
Nice naked wave.
Nice bones.
But looked like a goner.
Going back to the original blue red images.
Almost hard to find last night ....
This morning like the proverbial cat...
... the cat came back.
The cat that was supposed to be Chantal.
In the Caribbean now... South of Hispaniola.
Still moving West.
Moving W through dry air.
Yet finding ways to maintain convection.
Go figure.
I point this out not because it's becoming Chantal...
But I'm saying Chantal is the next name.
The name everyone thought 96L would get.
What I am saying is should it survive...
Where does it go?
Always worth watching these sort of waves.
Many times Invests and TDs that died away.
Then they come back closer to shore.
I don't want to offer a few examples.
Because I'm just saying it's fun to watch.
Not screaming shark.
Let's look at Earthnull.
It's a wave.
You see not closed.
But a kink.. a "wave" in the wind.
A small reflection where X96L is now.
Another kink for the wave that's behind it...
Note the graphics below.
We are in Tropical Wave Season.
Dabuh loves waves.
Dabuh is smart.
Waves that don't die completely can become problems.
Another area to wonder on is off the SE coast.
There is a small chance of a set up coming.
A weak set up and most likely too weak to get a status.
But the pattern continues so over the next 3 weeks.
Updated 10 PM Invest 95L and 96L to Follow. Wave Train Leaving From Africa .. May Come to a Town Near You Soon. Please Prepare and Get a Plan.
Updated 8 PM
East Atlantic Wave now up to 40%
95L may develop but if so not for a while.
Close in.
Either way PR will remember 95L
Flooding... heavy rain.
Significantly interesting.
Just got home.
Going to watch the debate.
Tomorrow I'll update.
We should have Invest 96L soon.
Stay tuned!
Note this tweet below.
Waves traveling around the High....
Once Tropical Storms or Hurricanes....
They can curve out to sea off shore.
They can go South under the High into the Caribbean.
They can make landfall.
You know this dance and the steps.
Be back tomorrow morning
My thoughts......... check out the model tracks.
Where the high is will guide the movement.
Strong waves.
Strong High.
If the waves develop will they be well stacked?
If so we will have to watch the tropics carefully.
While dry air & wind shear will initially inhibit development, EPS probabilities continue to rise, and are now at 70% of a tropical depression forming over the next 3-5 days. All interests in the Lesser Antilles should closely monitor this disturbance! #tropics#96L 🌀🌀🌀 pic.twitter.com/cAXC5H5zKb
Wait and see what happens as it hits warmer water.
Less shear.
Wide view of the Atlantic.
You can see 95L and the wave off Africa.
Also an active ITCZ
And a dark, deep High Pressure Zone.
I'll talk on the wave off Africa later.
Another view below.
Healthy waves for late July.
Close your eyes it will be August soon!
Putting this here now as it's relevant.
I used to be more impatient.
Someone taught me to have patience.
So now I wait.
You can wait too.
Soon we will be so busy.
I hope I'm wrong.
But I don't think so...
Those African Waves.
Time is a gift on this show Bobbi and I am doing to tropical wave at :50 past. But honestly I have been trying to get to it for my first 2 shows and can't. That is the most important thing in the basin at this time. yes.
How close to they and others come to the East Coast.
And impact the islands later in the season?
Note Earthnull image.
Nothing specific in the Caribbean.
It's a wave in the Caribbean still.
But close to Africa...
...lot's of swirls, semi closed off.
Potent waves.
Check out the wave closest to Africa.
The one with the yellow circle.
Waves often fall apart.
This one so far has good model support.
I'll go long on models tomorrow.
I'm in Savannah this morning.
Finishing up vacation.
Note PR is getting rain from Invest 95L
Let's hope all PR gets this season is needed rain.
And nothing more.
I'm still on the road, home later tonight and I'll do full updates then. Today is a day to sit, watch and think on what you would need to do if a hurricane comes to your town later in the season. I'm not trying to hype or alarm anyone here ... but I am trying to educate and inspire you to please take this hurricane season seriously. I really do hope I am wrong but with a huge high set in place somewhat anchored and strong, healthy stubborn tropical waves rolling off of Africa (nicely spaced I may add) the road map right now leads towards the Islands and ultimately the East Coast. Yes, things can change and yes the high may open up and many things can happen but this is a set up that compels us to take the 2019 Hurricane Season seriously.
Often times a hurricane can aim itself at Miami or Charleston and swerve to the NNW and then the N and then go out to sea with an approaching cold front and we do have cold fronts this year on the map even in late July though they are not so cold, but they sure did grab what was TD3 and didn't get a name and absorb it's moisture. So landfalling hurricanes are not a lock in, however it's very possible we will have coastal cruisers and if the high is very strong and low they could cross Florida or the Florida Straits into the Gulf of Mexico.
So stay alert and watch the tropics but while watching please take stock of what your particular household needs to deal with power outages, evacuation and the dangers inherent in an approaching hurricane.
Everything in life comes down at some point to decisions. I'm in Savannah this morning at the most beautiful Marshall House on Broughton Street and loving it. I wanted to go out and watch the sunrise but I didn't want to leave the room. So I opened the curtains in the cute old fashioned shower and watched the sunrise from the bathroom during my morning shower. I mean oh my gosh heaven. Not a great view but watched sunset last night so I'm good. Note usually we park in that parking garage, I drink coffee from the nearby Starbucks or get ice cream nearby and walk in and out of the Marshall House wishing I could stay there. Now I did... It was a great sunrise in it's way, so is Savannah. I do have distant relatives here and pass through often but sometimes you just got to go with your gut and do what you love. I'll update later tonight from Raleigh. For now I feel home in Savannah.
Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram
Tropics Quiet Today. Storms in the South, Tornado Warnings But Not TS Barry. Back From Vacation in Crown Heights. What is Crown Heights? Why You Should Visit NY in June...and WHAT IS AN INVEST REALLY?
Officially nothing is going on in the tropics today.
Invest 91L is no more.
Despite giving it way too much of a chance.
The NHC pulled the plug.
I'm putting that picture in motion below
You can see it's remnant moisture causing problems.
I want to draw your attention to this flare up below.
This area and further to the East will flare up often today.
It's the moisture that was associated with 91L...
...mixing it up with a frontal boundary.
This was and is the real concern.
Flooding.
Torrential rains.
Tornadoes.
Too much can be a disaster.
Not enough can destroy crops.
Kind of a lesson in life on finding a balance.
We can learn much from studying meteorology.
I'm back from vacation.
It was a hectic, crazy good trip.
Not a lot of down time but found some anyway.
You gotta grab those moments while you can.
More on that later ;)
I'm going to talk tropical first.
Personal later.
Feel free to just do the weather....
...or stick around for the rest of what's on the menu.
What is an INVEST?
Please read and remember.
Thank you!
What I really want to convey here about Invest 91L is that it actually did what most areas of tropical moisture do and that is they drift along with the lower level winds towards some coastline and because either one center could not win out over the competing centers or conditions were not favorable enough they do not develop and they end up as rain over the heartland or low lands of the Carolinas and Georgia or Louisiana. That really is the way of the world. Years ago they were called "tropical disturbances" meaning there was a disturbance in the force in the tropics ... to be plain and a bit silly but very honest. Then we went through a period of naming various areas or tropical waves as an Invest and numbering them and studying them to see if they did or didn't develop. This was not exactly a clandestine thing but it was known in meteorological circles. Somewhere along the line they went public with a flurry of fantastic graphics on TWC or your local TV news and online in the meteorological community. Social media amped up the expectations tremendously. The National Hurricane Center obviously saw it as a tool to remind people it's the Hurricane Season and tropical development could come from this little piggy or that little piggy and somewhere a poor girl seemingly destined to sweep her stepmother's home could turn into Cinderella. Seriously it's that basic and I want people to understand as the season progresses an INVEST has NO CENTER, no real CIRCULATION and winds not of any tropical designation. So what does an Invest have? Rain that has lingered or sometimes it's simply an area with very little rain but model support as models (computer programs) indicated that an area of low pressure could form over such and such a place and deserve the designation of Tropical Depression, Tropical Storm or Hurricane. The problem here is that since they give it a designation of Invest with a number it is raised to real status and it is not... it's like saying wood that could have been made to build Pinocchio was actually Pinocchio from day one when in fact it was most likely going to be used to build a bench but who knows a good carpenter might have built something bigger than a bench. Not to take away from benches that give us all a place to rest...
So yes I will talk on Invests and discuss their potential for Barry or Chantal but we may go through a whole bunch of them with no name given or the next one may form from a stalled out frontal boundary in the Gulf of Mexico that may develop a center as barometric pressure lowers and winds begin to pick up and circulate enough for the National Hurricane Center to designate it a Tropical Depression or Tropical Storm. It is very possible that could happen before the month of June ends. That is what we call foreshadowing as models are doing their thing again showing an area that may be ripe for development. And again it's a good time to look at the areas of development most frequently popular in June and that is.... the Gulf of Mexico and along the SE coast. The frenzy reminds me of that scene from Fantasy Island years ago.
Compare and contrast June with October.
While the Central American Gyre is a thing.
It more frequently produces storms later in the season.
October is prime time for the CAG.
But that region does produce in June and July sometimes.
It's possible a disturbance can form and get up into the prime region.
And that is what models were indicating with Invest 91L.
Normally it would have developed in the EPAC.
The fact that it didn't and lingered over Central America.
And could not pull it together in the SW Carib...
..... was a pretty good sign it was just an Invest.
But the regime at the NHC this year seems to rely on models...
...more than other teams have and it is what it is.
Subtropical Storm Andrea didn't last as long as Invests 91L
Nuff said.
To read more on what a CAG is read the link below.
You will see how many areas are being monitored for development.
When models begin to favor one area..........
...... it may become an Invest.
An area merely being watched and investigated for development.
Find a balance again between speculation and reality.
Find sources you trust over time.
Sources you have learned to trust over time.
Keep it in perspective but pay attention.
That's it mostly for the weather part of today's blog.
The rest explains where I have been.
And is a good primer for what is Crown Heights.
A place I mention often and just got back from....
Remember his is a blog... an online diary of sorts.
When there's a hurricane out there it's ALL weather ...
....but there is no hurricane today so blogging and having fun.
On a personal level ... hi there :) I'm back from vacation in New York where we went for a wedding and to see two of my daughters and do some shopping for things you can only really get in New York. Amazon is great but it's not the same as actually walking through the Louvre and it's much more fun to wander around and pick things out .... feel some cool air on a sunny day and I gotta tell you generally there is no finer place to be than New York in June. I mean it inspired a song! You can't go wrong going to New York in June. The weather is about as good as it gets !
I was also in upstate New York and I was on the road that goes back and forth from Monsey NY across the river down through Manhattan any which way Waze takes you to get across the other river into Brooklyn because Manhattan is really an island! My other daughter lives in the Flatbush area of New York and we spent a lot of time in Boro Park and Crown Heights. As you know from reading this blog I lived in Crown Heights, I went to school in Crown Heights and it's a sort of spiritual home that nourishes me as much as the incredible food in all the new trendy restaurants does as somehow Crown Heights became trendy. It's a beautiful neighbor that finds a balance for many cultures that call it home.
Years ago it was a nice, new suburb predominately Jewish built when the subway stop on Kingston Avenue and Eastern Parkway opened up that part of what had previously been a bucolic area that fast evolved into an neighborhood of nice homes on shaded streets for young families who were moving away from the Lower East Side. Over time many Caribbean Island families moved into Crown Heights and found it also a beautiful place with nice homes, brownstones, parks and shaded streets. At some point Chabad Lubavitch moved into Crown Heights after the previous Lubavitcher Rebbe Rabbi Joseph I. Schneerson made it his home and in doing so made it World Chabad Headquarters. Time went by and as the older Jewish population died out a young vibrant Chabad community evolved as many come from all over the world to study and live there for a while before either finding a home there permanently or going out somewhere into the world to take a little bit of Crown Heights with them where ever they live and often return "home" to touch home base as I did the last few days.
Oh did I mention the Dodgers used to play in Crown Heights? You might want to do a little bit of reading up on the history of Brooklyn ...
There's a beauty and a balance to Crown Heights where tree lined streets shade your walk through neighborhoods where people grown gardens and roses bloom in June. Now days there are street fairs, parades of all kinds and a farmers market in a park. People live together in balance in this sweet space where many feel at home and recently it's even become a bit of a tourist attraction. I feel like I'm in Key West with people doing walking tours with tourists from more cultures than I can even try and list here. I even stood on a corner to see what the guy was saying but really time moves fast in a New York minute so I moved on to meet my husband for coffee and a doughnut at Gombo's Bakery. It's so trendy in Crown Heights we now have outdoor patios to eat and enjoy the food and the view. Who knew?
Showing two YouTube videos that show the different sides of Crown Heights but they both show the enjoyment people have of living there and why it's a much loved neighborhood. As y'all know I love fashion so let's start there.
Another view of Lubavitch and Crown Heights.
And some blend the two and still call it home.
It's a big world.
Embrace what you love.
Enjoy what you love.
Accept others with love.
Wasn't this trip inspirational for me?
That's it.
I'm back recuperating from too much dancing....
... too much walking (NY...) and too much food.
Walking from the wedding party venue...
...to the wedding site on Eastern Parkway at 770 in high heels.
And then back again for dancing.....
Yeah I'm resting today :)
I do love Crown Heights :) as you can tell.
Note Crown HEIGHTS has HILLS.
I'm just a bit tired today.
We got back around 1 AM ....
Catching up on what's going on in the tropics.
Resting today.
Writing long obviously.
Home in Carolina.
Not expecting much to develop in the next few days.
So enjoy the long blog if you read the whole thing.
And I'm home loving the posts of my friends.
Catching up.
Is Mike back from his cruise?
Wonder if either of us got any rest.
Most of us know nothing is happening for a while.
So we take our trips in early June.
June too soon for hurricanes..........
.........but usually a good time for a vacation!
Another best friend is in Myrtle Beach this week...
Ps. To be honest yes we love Eastern Parkway so much we take wedding pictures there and film CD covers there as well. Okay my son helped make this video and he's hidden in there in a few places and it's one of my favorites so you get the idea... the feel.... the beauty and joy of what it is for me to be there, wander through the Jewish Bookstore, pray at 770 the synagogue, buy my best friend a few presents which I must remember to send out tomorrow and .... be totally exhausted from a huge wedding that went on for hours with much dancing, song, food, music and happy memories. Make your own memories, June is running out... go enjoy New York in June.
Location: Miami, Raleigh, Crown Heights, Florida, United States
Weather Historian. Studied meteorology and geography at FIU. Been quoted in Wall Street Journal, Washington Post & everywhere else... Lecturer, stormchaser, writer, dancer. If it's tropical it's topical ... covering the weather & musing on life. Follow me on Twitter @ https://twitter.com/#!/BobbiStorm
