Updated 10 PM Invest 95L and 96L to Follow. Wave Train Leaving From Africa .. May Come to a Town Near You Soon. Please Prepare and Get a Plan.

Updated 8 PM

East Atlantic Wave now up to 40%

95L may develop but if so not for a while.

Close in. 

Either way PR will remember 95L

Flooding... heavy rain. 

Significantly interesting.

Just got home. 

Going to watch the debate.

Tomorrow I'll update.

We should have Invest 96L soon.

Stay tuned!

Note this tweet below.

Waves traveling around the High....

Once Tropical Storms or Hurricanes....

They can curve out to sea off shore.

They can go South under the High into the Caribbean.

They can make landfall.

You know this dance and the steps.

 Be back tomorrow morning

My thoughts......... check out the model tracks.

Where the high is will guide the movement.

Strong waves.

Strong High.

If the waves develop will they be well stacked?

If so we will have to watch the tropics carefully.

While dry air & wind shear will initially inhibit development, EPS probabilities continue to rise, and are now at 70% of a tropical depression forming over the next 3-5 days. All interests in the Lesser Antilles should closely monitor this disturbance! #tropics #96L 🌀🌀🌀 pic.twitter.com/cAXC5H5zKb

— Dylan Federico (@DylanFedericoWX) July 30, 2019

10% for now in the 5 day for Invest 95L

20% in the 5 day for what will be Invest 96L

Note I'm on vacation.

You may find typos.

Sorry if so I'll edit later.

Short on time this morning :)

Going to do 95L first.

Location wise it's on our doorstep.

Time wise down the road so may 96L be.

Note there is convection there.

It lacks a true center.

Wait and see what happens as it hits warmer water.

Less shear.

Wide view of the Atlantic.

You can see 95L and the wave off Africa.

Also an active ITCZ

And a dark, deep High Pressure Zone.

I'll talk on the wave off Africa later.

Another view below.

Healthy waves for late July.

Close your eyes it will be August soon!

Putting this here now as it's relevant.

I used to be more impatient.

Someone taught me to have patience.

So now I wait.

You can wait too.

Soon we will be so busy.

I hope I'm wrong.

But I don't think so...

Those African Waves.

Time is a gift on this show Bobbi and I am doing to tropical wave at :50 past. But honestly I have been trying to get to it for my first 2 shows and can't. That is the most important thing in the basin at this time. yes.

— Jim Cantore (@JimCantore) July 30, 2019

Here are our tropics today.

Note the wave in the Caribbean flaring up.

Moving up into the Atlantic.

Crossing the Mona Passage.

Raining on PR... 

Moving towards warmer water....

...and less shear.

It's here off Florida and the Bahamas we watch.

Out in the Atlantic you can see the ITCZ

And the wave off of Africa.

That wave is the real player here.

But #95L shows where it may go.

Expect #96L to develop soon.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/atlantic/movies/g8irn/g8irnjava.html

Some models that were run for the current waves.

Details change but just look at those tracks.

Around the high.

How close to they and others come to the East Coast.

And impact the islands later in the season?

Note Earthnull image.

Nothing specific in the Caribbean.

It's a wave in the Caribbean still.

But close to Africa...

...lot's of swirls, semi closed off.

Potent waves.

Check out the wave closest to Africa.

The one with the yellow circle.

Waves often fall apart.

This one so far has good model support.

I'll go long on models tomorrow.

I'm in Savannah this morning.

Finishing up vacation.

Note PR is getting rain from Invest 95L

Let's hope all PR gets this season is needed rain.

And nothing more.

I'm still on the road, home later tonight and I'll do full updates then. Today is a day to sit, watch and think on what you would need to do if a hurricane comes to your town later in the season. I'm not trying to hype or alarm anyone here ... but I am trying to educate and inspire you to please take this hurricane season seriously. I really do hope I am wrong but with a huge high set in place somewhat anchored and strong, healthy stubborn tropical waves rolling off of Africa (nicely spaced I may add) the road map right now leads towards the Islands and ultimately the East Coast. Yes, things can change and yes the high may open up and many things can happen but this is a set up that compels us to take the 2019 Hurricane Season seriously.

Often times a hurricane can aim itself at Miami or Charleston and swerve to the NNW and then the N and then go out to sea with an approaching cold front and we do have cold fronts this year on the map even in late July though they are not so cold, but they sure did grab what was TD3 and didn't get a name and absorb it's moisture. So landfalling hurricanes are not a lock in, however it's very possible we will have coastal cruisers and if the high is very strong and low they could cross Florida or the Florida Straits into the Gulf of Mexico.

So stay alert and watch the tropics but while watching please take stock of what your particular household needs to deal with power outages, evacuation and the dangers inherent in an approaching hurricane.

Everything in life comes down at some point to decisions. I'm in Savannah this morning at the most beautiful Marshall House on Broughton Street and loving it. I wanted to go out and watch the sunrise but I didn't want to leave the room. So I opened the curtains in the cute old fashioned shower and watched the sunrise from the bathroom during my morning shower. I mean oh my gosh heaven. Not a great view but watched sunset last night so I'm good. Note usually we park in that parking garage, I drink coffee from the nearby Starbucks or get ice cream nearby and walk in and out of the Marshall House wishing I could stay there. Now I did...  It was a great sunrise in it's way, so is Savannah. I do have distant relatives here and pass through often but sometimes you just got to go with your gut and do what you love. I'll update later tonight from Raleigh. For now I feel home in Savannah.

Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram

Myrtle Beach ... A Needed Getaway... To a Place I Love.... Hurricane Florence Long Gone.... Sunrise Sunset. Green Flash & Green Book Wins

Warning I may ramble...

..intoxicated by the beach and the sound of the surf.

Did I mention Sunset and Sunrise?

Keep reading...

This is your generic advertisement brochure for any beach, but in this case it's Myrtle Beach and it really looks like this often if you are lucky and on this trip down to South Carolina I got lucky. Okay I may have prayed also and a lot of prayers seem to have gotten answered. It's my 10th Wedding Anniversary weekend and a celebration of people I love being happy and it's also my daughter's birthday but more on that later. 

Last night's sunset at Broadway on the Beach.

2 things I love.. Broadway and the Beach.

I also had a Margarita ;)

at a Key West Restaurant near the water..

..after wandering through Margaritaville!

I'm writing this blog this morning from the 10th floor...

..listening to the sound of the ocean and the waves below.

Yes... 10th floor. It's the details that matter.

I literally woke up to this view.

The view from my bed out the sliding glass door.

That's venus shining in the sky...

...over a colorful display of beauty.

I got dressed fast.

Thankfully I put on leggings and my sweater.

I forgot to check the temperature out there.

Good thing too or I may not have gone down there.

View from the balcony stunning but....

...sometimes you gotta get up close and personal.

It was 43 degrees and "feels like 36"

Seagulls and sandpipers ....

...catching the moment the sun breaks the horizon.

The waves, the wind and the seafoam.

I had a beautiful nice last night in so many ways. Walked around Margaritaville listening to Jimmy Buffett songs thinking it's not like being in Key West but it's a pretty place to be. Decided to go over to the Key West Grill on the lagoon and get a Margarita that way I could say I was in both Myrtle Beach and Key West at once! Good margarita and a nice view of the sun setting over the lagoon at Broadway on the Beach. If you come to Myrtle Beach it's a must see like the Ferris Wheel and the Gay Dolphin and the Hurricane Myrtle at Myrtle Beach Margaritaville. My husband is over at Chabad House a few blocks from the hotel doing his morning prayers while I do my morning blog. You seriously didn't think I was going to not include a Hurricane in my Anniversary plans did you?

As always looking for that elusive green flash at sunrise.

Or was it sunset?

Anyway....

I wanted to go away and party and I wanted to wander around the beach and other places round these parts I love and I wanted to get some kosher lamb at the Food Lion here (seriously high on my list) and wanted to watch the Oscars. I had a somewhat vested interest in the Oscars this year and if my wishes came true (and they did) then Green Book would win the Oscar and I'd smile a lot and Green Book won the Oscar as did people involved and I smiled so much. There are things I say and things I allude to and only the guilty party gets all the innuendo but I'm fricking over the moon happy for my crazy friend and that wishes come true.

Green Book is an incredible movie with some great cars :)

That's what "he" said...

And he's always right.

In truth Green Book is a story that should be told and it's good to learn about a time in history that was different from today when we are blessed to have so many freedoms and opportunity to do what we love. Once upon a time the original deeds to my parent's house in Miami Beach had the clause that the property could not be sold to Blacks, Jews or Dogs. Why a dog would want to buy a house I have no idea but apparently in case it was possible the early bigoted, prejudice builders of Mid Beach near Arthur Godfrey Road wanted to make sure that blacks, jews and dogs stayed far away from true white privilege; know that Arthur Godfrey Road is now the center of the Orthodox Jewish community filled with Kosher restaurants, blacks are allowed to live there and dogs can be seen walking with their owners on their way to the beach and the boardwalk. That's irony. That's karma. Once upon a time Sammy Davis Jr was allowed to perform at the Fountainblue with the rest of the Rat Pack but he was expected to sleep in Overtown across beautiful Biscayne Bay in a place that was in the Green Book; the guide to where people of color were welcome. If you read his biography "Yes, I can" you will read all about that incident and others and as Sammy used to like to remind people he was the most handicapped person around as he was a one eyed, Negro Jew... oh that man could sing and dance but he still had to stay at the "right" hotel not the one he was singing and dancing in...  

https://www.haaretz.com/jewish/.premium-1990-sammy-davis-jr-dies-1.5242961

Miami Beach was beautiful always; early on the Jews were only allowed to stay south of 5th Street though that did change fast enough I will admit it's still a dark scar on Miami Jewish History that every Jewish Miami kid knows. My parent's lives on 37th and Sheridan in the 1970s so it seems Arthur Godfrey Jr did not get his wish. Sorry Charlie...    and have had some wonderful black neighbors over time so he must really be rolling in his grave. In fact there are Argentinians and Israelis and Canadians and Russians all mixed together into a beautiful Beach City that loves all creatures (even dogs) and it's a diverse, happy place. That's karma biting some people in the proverbial ass! It's also a great place to film a movie and it has so many picturesque film locations... 

So back to me and my crazy, sometimes upside down life. I loaded up my favorite makeup including my Kat Von D compact and my Huda Eyeshadow Palette and Stila stay on forever even after sipping a margarita lipstick and bought some Strawberry Creme cookies to nibble on while sipping some sort of alcoholic strawberry canned drink and watched the Oscars and wishes came true. And, I woke up in the morning, made a fast coffee in the room and went downstairs and collected shells and took pictures and videos and prayed to God thanking him for this beautiful day; okay my husband went to Chabad but to each his own. And to the person who wrote about me leaving Chabad in the Post.... that's rich irony as here I am still connected and still chasing sunrise and hurricanes and doing what I love.

What do you love? I love dancing and weather and music and make up and beaches and margaritas and best friends who have rocked my world.

My daughter gave us permission to get married on her birthday.

February 24th was always a good day for me.

It was also Rosh Chodesh Adar and Fat Tuesday.

Ps I had a Hurricane at Fat Tuesday last night ;)

Dina hoops.

She loves to hoop.

Apparently she has a mother who let her do what she loves.

That's my girl.

She's a character. Definitely my daughter.

https://www.instagram.com/dinadeehoops/

One of my daughters.

Some people love to watch satellite loops.

Yes I can almost feel the hurricane season in the wind.

Whispering... "don't forget me"

Dabuh loves beaches, surf and hurricanes.

He also loves hurricane people.

You don't get more hurricane people than PHIL.

Trust me I know.

Well maybe a few but.... he watches hurricanes.

And I mean all over from all over.

Phil could be in Switzerland and he'd be watching the Pacific.

Really...

I'm more an Atlantic girl ...

This girl Barbie lives in Key West.

Takes great pictures.

The beauty of the beach is it's always changing.

It's also always rearranging itself in odd ways.

Miami Beach is built on a Sandbar remember that!

Colors change, clouds come and go and then the sun comes out!

Enjoy those places you love.

Love the people you love.

Do what you love.

Do it with LOVE.

Indeed.... so true.

One thing I adore about Mike is...

...he does what he loves.

And we love him for it!

I'll be writing about the tropics more and more in the coming days.

Some hurricane history and hurricane tips.

Stay tuned...

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Instagram and Twitter

Ps... My son is a music producer. Ironic huh?

He does what he loves.

He produced this song and the CD.

Producers are awesome... 

..producing and oozing creativity :)

Friday. Tropical Thoughts to Think On While Staying Cool This Weekend. African Waves and Pin Ball Machines.

Keeping this simple today. Please feel free to read yesterday's post that has more solid information. The main point to take away from today's blog is that there is a wave moving through the Atlantic into the Caribbean as I type this post. Another strong wave is leaving Africa later today. It is a process and when you get a wave cruising through the Caribbean that sailed through cool water and Saharan Dust you do not count out the season as "nothing to worry about" because Academics discuss degrees of water in June and how much ACE we will end up with later in the year. To an academic numbers and details are exciting. To a homeowner or someone who lives in a poorly maintained apartment house near the coast those details mean little if your bayou is going to flood or your roof is going to blow away in a hurricane. ACE is something we often talk about online. Do not concern yourself with it if you live in Hurricane Country. Concern yourself with how you will secure your property and where you will hunker down or evacuate to if a hurricane makes it to your port of call.

As for our wave entering the Caribbean.

This is what the NHC says about that.

Note they used many words.

Follow the orange "ball" as it moves into the Carib.

As my friend Dabuh says they often come out of the stealth mode they are in when traveling through the SAL. Note the cold water colors shown in blue with variations in the blue (cold water) and yet when the wave got to warmer water it blew up. Then the shear at the door post of the Caribbean tries to kill it but enhances it and then it wobbles West into the heart of the Caribbean. Something could surprise us or nothing could come from this wave. But, there is another wave behind it and another wave behind that.  Check Dabuh out... no one knows waves to surf or track like him. https://twitter.com/DaDaBuh

Think of this time of year the way you remember a great pinball machine. One ball dies and you miss your opportunity. Then you pull the plunger and shoot out the next ball, and the next ball after that until you get one ball that you use the flippers properly and spend a long time watching it bounce about wracking up ACE and there are even times when you get more than one ball to play with as you continue on and on. And, that is what the hurricane season really is like. ACE is that ball you played with for the longest time. Ever play pinball? Try it. Some cute new places where Millenials and Baby Boomers hang out. It's obsessive much like tracking tropical waves. 

Stay cool. Have a great weekend. Those gorgeous sunset pictures on Twitter, Facebook, Instagram and Snapchat the last few days along the SE coast were enhanced by bits and pieces of SAL that made it to our world. Where SAL goes tropical trouble often follows. It's a really large High setting up in place and the waves coming off may be hindered by the cooler water but they seem to be healthy waves.

Huge High.

As for #NationalSelfieDay.

That's me.

Last week in the Florida Keys.

Hurricane Monument.

1935 Labor Day Hurricane.

Actually was Home Grown Trouble.

A year with lot's of close in storms.

Miami was hit 3 times in an El Nino Year

1926, 1965, 1992

Great Miami Hurricane.

Hurricane Betsy.

Hurricane Andrew.

Don't get lost in academic terms.

Preparation is the key.

Be #hurricanestrong.

Have a great weekend. Enjoy the sunsets. Find a cool movie or a breezy beach if you can. And as I said yesterday... always be yourself and do the things you love and be Hurricane Strong ;)

http://www.publix.com/pages/publix-storm-basics

Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter
Keep watching something will eventually catch our attention http://spaghettimodels.com
http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/2018/06/summer-solstice-2018-flooding-in-texas.html

Tropics Thursday ULLs Dance in Atlantic. Waves Keep Coming Off of Africa. Back Story Drama Going On...

A quick look at Mike's Spaghetti Models shows nothing happening.

NADA in the tropics.

www.spaghettimodels.com

But there is a back story here going on.

Nothing on the surface.

No big yellow or orange circles from the NHC.

No Invests or named tropical storms.

Kind of par for the course in July.

Why does it look like those 2 ULLs want to do a Fujiwara dance..
...off the SE Coast near the Carolinas.

It's a strange time in the tropics. That in between time when the mean season translates to extremely hot days in the Mid Atlantic States and daily rain in Florida. People are hot, uncomfortable and once again another summer has us discussing OJ when we really should be drinking OJ often to stay hydrated. The NWS is painting a square sort of heart across the middle of the country and then those watches and warnings slide East towards places like Raleigh. 100 degrees possible on Saturday round these parts and I'm not talking "feels like" but what the thermometer may show.

And in the tropics the Upper Level Lows keep swirling round and round seemingly anchored as if they put down stakes on solid ground. Like huge wind mills in the Atlantic Ocean they spin and spin with seemingly no end. That's somewhat common though not really normal. Why? Upper Level Lows tend to ooze around a bit, expand, open up, tighten up and often then fade away while another one forms nearby taking over as if they are running a relay race. They rarely just drop anchor and refuse to leave; sometimes it happens but it's rare.

Note 96L flares up but has no where to go.

So NHC says NO... 

The NHC has taken the yellow circle away in the Atlantic despite the wave still looking healthy and being followed by a succession of tropical waves that rolled off Africa followed by an even larger one still over Africa today. Look how much moisture is visible in the image below. Remnants of 96L looks better than Don did on a good day and as good as TD4 before that. But we basically put up yellow and orange circles these days based on model forecasts and the models don't show much forming. The waves are doing their job though quietly without any fan fare. Juicing up the atmosphere.

In other places we see formation possibilities in purple.

Like amethysts strung across the Atlantic.

Yet NHC says nope, not happening.

Pretty juicy on what we used to call the OJ loop.

Look at all that orange in the Atlantic.

It gets pulled N by the tug of the ULL above.

But it's juicy.

Worth taking a look at that last model run for 96L

IF 96L stayed alive and was named.

This is where it would go.

Good to keep in mind.

Why you ask?

Because if you drop a penny in the gutter.

This is how it would roll... 

Same as the SAL moving across the Atlantic Basin.

A precursor path wise to later tropical tracks.

Named storms with cones and watches and warnings.

Where the SAL goes tropical trouble often follows.

People take pictures of sunrise and sunset in Florida.

They ooh and ah and post #nofilter pictures online.

It's the SAL as most asthmatics know..

And I'm telling you again where SAL goes in July...

...is where Hurricanes can go in August and September.

Beautiful sunsets.

Just type in #sunset #miami for beautiful coral colored pictures.

Yesterday the family group showed lavender and lilac in the sky.

#nofilter so true.

And Brickell is where it is at in Miami.

For smart retired baby boomers.

For savvy Milleninals.

(find Sugar, have a drink... take a picture)

And as savvy John Morales knows there's a sigh coming down the road.

Phil Klotzbach posted this for a reason.

"harbinger of an active Atlantic Hurricane Season"

Rainfall is up over the Sahel region.

Africa is firing off tropical waves.

1-2-3-4 there's more and more of them.

The purpose for tropical waves in July is not to get named storms.

The purpose is to juice up the environment for the real waves.

For the real season which begins in August.

August Look Out as the nursery rhyme goes.

As Jim knows...

See the loop below...

See the moisture getting into place.

The  SAL is seasonal. 

SAL comes and SAL goes.

It's the Upper Level Lows that remain the fly in the ointment.

Will they still be there in August and September?

Fronts begin rolling off the East Coast.

Each front getting successively stronger.

The switch gets flicked on...

Storms don't just go West but begin to pull WNW.

It's something to think on...

...during these quiet, hot days of July.

There's a back story going on ...

...while the media talks on OJ and Trump.

Stay hydrated, take beautiful pictures of sunset.

Stock up on hurricane supplies.

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter

Ps ... Get a plan. But til then enjoy those beautiful pics.

The show many only get more exciting down the road.

I'll be home in August, back in the 305.

View in the daytime. Stunning.

https://www.compass.com/agents/miami/levi-meyer/

My sun knows where to go to watch the sun set.

At night the stars come out and you can see forever.

http://www.sugar-miami.com/

Fast becoming our favorite place to go in Miami. 

Drinks are good but oh the view.

As for the Upper Level Lows... Hmnnn

Will they remain through September.

Watching ULLs is like counting crows these days

I wonder..

Funny juiciest wave yet has no circle...

...cause it has no where to go?