Updated 10 PM Invest 95L and 96L to Follow. Wave Train Leaving From Africa .. May Come to a Town Near You Soon. Please Prepare and Get a Plan.

Updated 8 PM

East Atlantic Wave now up to 40%

95L may develop but if so not for a while.

Close in. 

Either way PR will remember 95L

Flooding... heavy rain. 

Significantly interesting.

Just got home. 

Going to watch the debate.

Tomorrow I'll update.

We should have Invest 96L soon.

Stay tuned!

Note this tweet below.

Waves traveling around the High....

Once Tropical Storms or Hurricanes....

They can curve out to sea off shore.

They can go South under the High into the Caribbean.

They can make landfall.

You know this dance and the steps.

 Be back tomorrow morning

My thoughts......... check out the model tracks.

Where the high is will guide the movement.

Strong waves.

Strong High.

If the waves develop will they be well stacked?

If so we will have to watch the tropics carefully.

While dry air & wind shear will initially inhibit development, EPS probabilities continue to rise, and are now at 70% of a tropical depression forming over the next 3-5 days. All interests in the Lesser Antilles should closely monitor this disturbance! #tropics #96L 🌀🌀🌀 pic.twitter.com/cAXC5H5zKb

— Dylan Federico (@DylanFedericoWX) July 30, 2019

10% for now in the 5 day for Invest 95L

20% in the 5 day for what will be Invest 96L

Note I'm on vacation.

You may find typos.

Sorry if so I'll edit later.

Short on time this morning :)

Going to do 95L first.

Location wise it's on our doorstep.

Time wise down the road so may 96L be.

Note there is convection there.

It lacks a true center.

Wait and see what happens as it hits warmer water.

Less shear.

Wide view of the Atlantic.

You can see 95L and the wave off Africa.

Also an active ITCZ

And a dark, deep High Pressure Zone.

I'll talk on the wave off Africa later.

Another view below.

Healthy waves for late July.

Close your eyes it will be August soon!

Putting this here now as it's relevant.

I used to be more impatient.

Someone taught me to have patience.

So now I wait.

You can wait too.

Soon we will be so busy.

I hope I'm wrong.

But I don't think so...

Those African Waves.

Time is a gift on this show Bobbi and I am doing to tropical wave at :50 past. But honestly I have been trying to get to it for my first 2 shows and can't. That is the most important thing in the basin at this time. yes.

— Jim Cantore (@JimCantore) July 30, 2019

Here are our tropics today.

Note the wave in the Caribbean flaring up.

Moving up into the Atlantic.

Crossing the Mona Passage.

Raining on PR... 

Moving towards warmer water....

...and less shear.

It's here off Florida and the Bahamas we watch.

Out in the Atlantic you can see the ITCZ

And the wave off of Africa.

That wave is the real player here.

But #95L shows where it may go.

Expect #96L to develop soon.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/atlantic/movies/g8irn/g8irnjava.html

Some models that were run for the current waves.

Details change but just look at those tracks.

Around the high.

How close to they and others come to the East Coast.

And impact the islands later in the season?

Note Earthnull image.

Nothing specific in the Caribbean.

It's a wave in the Caribbean still.

But close to Africa...

...lot's of swirls, semi closed off.

Potent waves.

Check out the wave closest to Africa.

The one with the yellow circle.

Waves often fall apart.

This one so far has good model support.

I'll go long on models tomorrow.

I'm in Savannah this morning.

Finishing up vacation.

Note PR is getting rain from Invest 95L

Let's hope all PR gets this season is needed rain.

And nothing more.

I'm still on the road, home later tonight and I'll do full updates then. Today is a day to sit, watch and think on what you would need to do if a hurricane comes to your town later in the season. I'm not trying to hype or alarm anyone here ... but I am trying to educate and inspire you to please take this hurricane season seriously. I really do hope I am wrong but with a huge high set in place somewhat anchored and strong, healthy stubborn tropical waves rolling off of Africa (nicely spaced I may add) the road map right now leads towards the Islands and ultimately the East Coast. Yes, things can change and yes the high may open up and many things can happen but this is a set up that compels us to take the 2019 Hurricane Season seriously.

Often times a hurricane can aim itself at Miami or Charleston and swerve to the NNW and then the N and then go out to sea with an approaching cold front and we do have cold fronts this year on the map even in late July though they are not so cold, but they sure did grab what was TD3 and didn't get a name and absorb it's moisture. So landfalling hurricanes are not a lock in, however it's very possible we will have coastal cruisers and if the high is very strong and low they could cross Florida or the Florida Straits into the Gulf of Mexico.

So stay alert and watch the tropics but while watching please take stock of what your particular household needs to deal with power outages, evacuation and the dangers inherent in an approaching hurricane.

Everything in life comes down at some point to decisions. I'm in Savannah this morning at the most beautiful Marshall House on Broughton Street and loving it. I wanted to go out and watch the sunrise but I didn't want to leave the room. So I opened the curtains in the cute old fashioned shower and watched the sunrise from the bathroom during my morning shower. I mean oh my gosh heaven. Not a great view but watched sunset last night so I'm good. Note usually we park in that parking garage, I drink coffee from the nearby Starbucks or get ice cream nearby and walk in and out of the Marshall House wishing I could stay there. Now I did...  It was a great sunrise in it's way, so is Savannah. I do have distant relatives here and pass through often but sometimes you just got to go with your gut and do what you love. I'll update later tonight from Raleigh. For now I feel home in Savannah.

Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram