Enjoy the Weekend. NHC Watching 2 Areas with Low Yellow Chances. It's Just a Matter of Time Before Something Forms... Til Then... Enjoy the Weekend. Check Back Monday ;)

The NHC Main Page is sort of a Maze ...

...an interactive game we play.

From June 1st to November 30th.

Area in the Yucatan down low on probabilities.

Never believed in the westbound system myself.

As I've said I'm watching for Mid October myself.

Generally if something is going to happen...

....that's the watch time frame.

As always late in the season we have Mid Atlantic Systems.

But when you click on the main screen for Day 2.

You get this satellite imagery below.

That tells the real story.

And addendum to that is my video below.

Lots to look at as it's not cloudless.

But nothing impending about to come together.

Have a wonderful weekend enjoying the cooler air in the South as we wait to see what happens in the tropics, weather wise in general as we wonder On #Halloween and wait for the State Fair in #NC ⁦⁦@NCStateFair⁩ hurricane season not over but on hiatus this weekend pic.twitter.com/g1xAPyzxWu

— BobbiStorm (@BobbiStorm) October 4, 2019

Dabuh God Bless Him is always watching.

And he knows, he's wise.

Meteorologists are great with hard to earn degrees.

But unless they know the water and the clouds...

...and the can smell the weather.

It's all academics.

One of my friends at the NHC for years....

...takes awesome photographs of clouds and storms.

He studies them on the computer and out his window.

Bill Gray flew into huge thunderstorms....

...studying them, doing research.

Others like Wes below love to share images.

And what I'll say about that comment is this.....

....no the sun wasn't "kind" to us in Raleigh yesterday.

But it's a last kiss... 

a fair ye well as we move towards Fall.

I went out to watch the sunset last night too.

It was warm, beautiful.

And the sky was Fall Colors.

Like the little yellow leaves dropping in the Carolinas.

So to does the NHC drop yellow circles on the map.

And some have potential to go orange....

...maybe even red like a sugar maple.

Hurricane Season is really a Fall Sport....

...as that's when things ramp up and slide down.

I'll be honest.

Models do show things out in the Atlantic.

Maybe a wave off of Africa.

That SW Caribbean bugaboo.

But nothing to worry or think on this weekend.

A large area of convection remains anchored in place.

A drop of color by the Yuctan reminds us to watch.

Further East we have a wave train.

A low riding wave train.

One of those wave can get into the SW Carib....

...and the light the spark.

You know that song....

Come on baby light my fire?

And a little ghost in the Caribbean goes BOO!

So debating what song to sing.

October is about waiting....

Waiting for fall to really begin.

Waiting for your football team to win.

Waiting for the World Series.

Waiting for Halloween.

Waiting for snow season.

And the list of waiting goes on.

Stop and take a minute to wonder....

..and watch the world go by and enjoy it's beauty.

My daughter landed in Asheville NC this morning.

She took a pic from the plane and said...

"I love it here and I haven't left the airport!"

Funny I know that feeling.

So take a mental picture.

Breathe.

Exhale.

Enjoy.

Have a beautiful weekend.

Let's think on next week ... next week.

It's that time of year we wait and watch...

...and things begin to change.

Yes it was 100 degrees in Raleigh yesterday...

...but it's going to turn cooler.

It's just a matter of time.

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram

Hurricane Season 36 Days Away....... Getting Close. Vacation in Miami and Then I'll Be All About the Tropics. Wicked Weather Today of All Types... Check with the NWS Often for Updates.

So I'm in Miami.

Doing Passover Miami style.

Fried Plantains... Pico de Gallo

Meringues and fruit

I realized that Google doesn't show you boat time.

Part of this trip was on my son's boat.... 

Shows you distance for driving, flying and walking.

I guess tech companies aren't in Miami....

...doesn't take how long it takes by boat into consideration.

Spoiler alert that day began at 10:30 ended at 8 PM.

I know life goes on weather wise..........

This area today is under the gun.

IRONICALLY........

They are having a NHC Conference in that area.

You think that's a sign for this hurricane season?

Could GOM be in for tropical trouble?

Many, including me, think it's very possible.

There was tornado damage in Louisiana today.

School field at a college there....

Nothing huge but not as tranquil as my weather has been.

Last night, watching sunset before heading in...

Earlier in the day we went to some Tropical Gardens.

More time alone with kids, Grandkids and peacocks........

They got flamingos too...

https://www.flamingogardens.org/

Meals with relatives....

Mucho cars everywhere.

Palm trees galore.

And yes the beat goes on... damage from NC tornado.

EF-2

36 days away from Hurricane Season.

Snow makes an unwanted appearance Up North

Hurricanes happen in other oceans.

My friends and I are always watching the weather.

I should be back to normal beginning of the week.

This week is holiday time for me.

My family is large and always in motion.

So here, there and everywhere.

Saying hello.

Saying goodbye.

Have a good weekend.

Let's hope the NFL draft goes good for Fins and Panthers.

Til then it's all family.

Sometimes I'm blonde...

..sometimes brunette.

It changes often like the weather :)

In 36 days I'll be all about the tropics.

Actually.... a Month and counting all about hurricanes.

May 1st coming up really soon.

Epac begins May 15th 

So enjoying my family vacation.

Much love and stay safe and always watch the weather

www.spaghettimodels.com

https://www.weather.gov/

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram

Follow me there for faster updates in real time.

Hurricane Season coming at you soon... 

...no longer in the rear view mirror

Friday. Tropical Thoughts to Think On While Staying Cool This Weekend. African Waves and Pin Ball Machines.

Keeping this simple today. Please feel free to read yesterday's post that has more solid information. The main point to take away from today's blog is that there is a wave moving through the Atlantic into the Caribbean as I type this post. Another strong wave is leaving Africa later today. It is a process and when you get a wave cruising through the Caribbean that sailed through cool water and Saharan Dust you do not count out the season as "nothing to worry about" because Academics discuss degrees of water in June and how much ACE we will end up with later in the year. To an academic numbers and details are exciting. To a homeowner or someone who lives in a poorly maintained apartment house near the coast those details mean little if your bayou is going to flood or your roof is going to blow away in a hurricane. ACE is something we often talk about online. Do not concern yourself with it if you live in Hurricane Country. Concern yourself with how you will secure your property and where you will hunker down or evacuate to if a hurricane makes it to your port of call.

As for our wave entering the Caribbean.

This is what the NHC says about that.

Note they used many words.

Follow the orange "ball" as it moves into the Carib.

As my friend Dabuh says they often come out of the stealth mode they are in when traveling through the SAL. Note the cold water colors shown in blue with variations in the blue (cold water) and yet when the wave got to warmer water it blew up. Then the shear at the door post of the Caribbean tries to kill it but enhances it and then it wobbles West into the heart of the Caribbean. Something could surprise us or nothing could come from this wave. But, there is another wave behind it and another wave behind that.  Check Dabuh out... no one knows waves to surf or track like him. https://twitter.com/DaDaBuh

Think of this time of year the way you remember a great pinball machine. One ball dies and you miss your opportunity. Then you pull the plunger and shoot out the next ball, and the next ball after that until you get one ball that you use the flippers properly and spend a long time watching it bounce about wracking up ACE and there are even times when you get more than one ball to play with as you continue on and on. And, that is what the hurricane season really is like. ACE is that ball you played with for the longest time. Ever play pinball? Try it. Some cute new places where Millenials and Baby Boomers hang out. It's obsessive much like tracking tropical waves. 

Stay cool. Have a great weekend. Those gorgeous sunset pictures on Twitter, Facebook, Instagram and Snapchat the last few days along the SE coast were enhanced by bits and pieces of SAL that made it to our world. Where SAL goes tropical trouble often follows. It's a really large High setting up in place and the waves coming off may be hindered by the cooler water but they seem to be healthy waves.

Huge High.

As for #NationalSelfieDay.

That's me.

Last week in the Florida Keys.

Hurricane Monument.

1935 Labor Day Hurricane.

Actually was Home Grown Trouble.

A year with lot's of close in storms.

Miami was hit 3 times in an El Nino Year

1926, 1965, 1992

Great Miami Hurricane.

Hurricane Betsy.

Hurricane Andrew.

Don't get lost in academic terms.

Preparation is the key.

Be #hurricanestrong.

Have a great weekend. Enjoy the sunsets. Find a cool movie or a breezy beach if you can. And as I said yesterday... always be yourself and do the things you love and be Hurricane Strong ;)

http://www.publix.com/pages/publix-storm-basics

Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter
Keep watching something will eventually catch our attention http://spaghettimodels.com
http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/2018/06/summer-solstice-2018-flooding-in-texas.html