Hurricane Harbor

A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!

Thursday, July 20, 2017

Tropics Thursday ULLs Dance in Atlantic. Waves Keep Coming Off of Africa. Back Story Drama Going On...

A quick look at Mike's Spaghetti Models shows nothing happening.
NADA in the tropics.

But there is a back story here going on.
Nothing on the surface.
No big yellow or orange circles from the NHC.
No Invests or named tropical storms.
Kind of par for the course in July.

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Why does it look like those 2 ULLs want to do a Fujiwara dance.. the SE Coast near the Carolinas.

It's a strange time in the tropics. That in between time when the mean season translates to extremely hot days in the Mid Atlantic States and daily rain in Florida. People are hot, uncomfortable and once again another summer has us discussing OJ when we really should be drinking OJ often to stay hydrated. The NWS is painting a square sort of heart across the middle of the country and then those watches and warnings slide East towards places like Raleigh. 100 degrees possible on Saturday round these parts and I'm not talking "feels like" but what the thermometer may show.

And in the tropics the Upper Level Lows keep swirling round and round seemingly anchored as if they put down stakes on solid ground. Like huge wind mills in the Atlantic Ocean they spin and spin with seemingly no end. That's somewhat common though not really normal. Why? Upper Level Lows tend to ooze around a bit, expand, open up, tighten up and often then fade away while another one forms nearby taking over as if they are running a relay race. They rarely just drop anchor and refuse to leave; sometimes it happens but it's rare.

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Note 96L flares up but has no where to go.
So NHC says NO... 

The NHC has taken the yellow circle away in the Atlantic despite the wave still looking healthy and being followed by a succession of tropical waves that rolled off Africa followed by an even larger one still over Africa today. Look how much moisture is visible in the image below. Remnants of 96L looks better than Don did on a good day and as good as TD4 before that. But we basically put up yellow and orange circles these days based on model forecasts and the models don't show much forming. The waves are doing their job though quietly without any fan fare. Juicing up the atmosphere.

In other places we see formation possibilities in purple.
Like amethysts strung across the Atlantic.

Yet NHC says nope, not happening.

Pretty juicy on what we used to call the OJ loop.
Look at all that orange in the Atlantic.
It gets pulled N by the tug of the ULL above.
But it's juicy.

Worth taking a look at that last model run for 96L
IF 96L stayed alive and was named.
This is where it would go.
Good to keep in mind.

Why you ask?
Because if you drop a penny in the gutter.
This is how it would roll... 

Same as the SAL moving across the Atlantic Basin.
A precursor path wise to later tropical tracks.
Named storms with cones and watches and warnings.
Where the SAL goes tropical trouble often follows.

People take pictures of sunrise and sunset in Florida.
They ooh and ah and post #nofilter pictures online.
It's the SAL as most asthmatics know..
And I'm telling you again where SAL goes in July... where Hurricanes can go in August and September.

Beautiful sunsets.
Just type in #sunset #miami for beautiful coral colored pictures.
Yesterday the family group showed lavender and lilac in the sky.

#nofilter so true.
And Brickell is where it is at in Miami.
For smart retired baby boomers.
For savvy Milleninals.
(find Sugar, have a drink... take a picture)

And as savvy John Morales knows there's a sigh coming down the road.
Phil Klotzbach posted this for a reason.
"harbinger of an active Atlantic Hurricane Season"

Rainfall is up over the Sahel region.
Africa is firing off tropical waves.
1-2-3-4 there's more and more of them.

The purpose for tropical waves in July is not to get named storms.
The purpose is to juice up the environment for the real waves.
For the real season which begins in August.
August Look Out as the nursery rhyme goes.
As Jim knows...

See the loop below...

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See the moisture getting into place.
The  SAL is seasonal. 
SAL comes and SAL goes.

It's the Upper Level Lows that remain the fly in the ointment.
Will they still be there in August and September?
Fronts begin rolling off the East Coast.
Each front getting successively stronger.
The switch gets flicked on...
Storms don't just go West but begin to pull WNW.

It's something to think on...
...during these quiet, hot days of July.
There's a back story going on ...
...while the media talks on OJ and Trump.
Stay hydrated, take beautiful pictures of sunset.
Stock up on hurricane supplies.

Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter

Ps ... Get a plan. But til then enjoy those beautiful pics.
The show many only get more exciting down the road.
I'll be home in August, back in the 305.

View in the daytime. Stunning.

My sun knows where to go to watch the sun set.
At night the stars come out and you can see forever.

Fast becoming our favorite place to go in Miami. 
Drinks are good but oh the view.

As for the Upper Level Lows... Hmnnn
Will they remain through September.
Watching ULLs is like counting crows these days
I wonder..

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Funny juiciest wave yet has no circle...
...cause it has no where to go?

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