Hurricane Harbor

A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!

Monday, July 17, 2017

95L has 50% Chances & May Have a Date with Recon Later Today. 96L Might Be Forming Behind It. Tropics Heat Up on Monday Morning. Eastern Carib on Watch for 2nd Bret Like Scenario. Remembering Dave Schwartz

Seems the tropical waves didn't get the memo...
..this was supposed to be a quiet week in the tropics.
There was also talk on MJO ramping things up.. 

Let's deal with the lead wave.
It has 50 % odds of forming as of 8 AM.

I told you there would be sneaky waves this year.
Note how nicely 95L is doing just below the SAL 
Kind of impressive - shows it's a fighter.

The wave behind it and below is is larger.
The wave behind is easily twice the size of 95L.
It is also a bit too low to develop for now.
There is something called the Coriolis Effect.
It's a delicate balance with regard to placement along the ITCZ.
It's kind of like learning to twirl a baton.
I'll explain that later today.
If you are too close to the equator it's a death sentence.
The lower they stay easier to sneak under the SAL as Bret did.
In order to start spinning they need to be above 5 North closer to 10 N.
However the lower waves help moisten up the atmosphere for the others.

Compare the above image to the loop below.
See how much moisture there is to maintain 95L

latest72hrs.gif (947×405)

Note below the two systems and also the frontal boundary.
It's not a real COLD front as much as a stalled out front.
I wanted to mention that.

Another thing to remember.
If 96L behind it develops.. it's bigger it help keep 95L going West.
If 96L develops and many seem to believe it will.

Can 95L maintain, grow and fight a strong ULL.
Wind shear and SAL?
Time will tell.
Keep watching.

Again they can aid short term development.
They can kill off a system as we saw with TD 4

So here we go again. Yes tracking similar waves in a similar environment and we think we should not bother but it's what we do ... we watch the tropics as we move closer to August.

We've seen this set up before. Two waves with overlapping formation zones to the South of a huge dry area of SAL moving West or WNW down the tropical road. Happens a lot here early in the season, not to say we don't have multiple waves closer to Africa sometimes. The lead wave is smaller or as we say in tropical meteorology "compact" being politically correct. The one behind it has more moisture in a larger pocket, however it's center seems to be more diffuse and harder to find. The twist in the lead wave is noticeable on satellite imagery. There is a recon flight into that wave later today. If they change their minds they may cancel it but for now it's on the agenda. You know government jobs have lots of forms, you have to put in the forms even if you change your mind later and cancel the scheduled flight. It's not United... no Tweet wars over cancelled recon flights.

rb_lalo-animated.gif (720×480)

The first thing you see is the fast flow to the North of the waves.
A wider view shows the dust and huge ULL in the Atlantic as well.
There are actually 2 ULLs and 2 waves.
A stalled out frontal boundary.
GOM has some convection rotating close in as well.

You can see the consolidation on Invest 95L further west.
Being a small system the models aren't always reliable.
That's one reason recon would be a great idea.
If there is enough confidence in 95L to go to the distance.
Or at least make it into the East Caribbean.
Long range solutions slam it into Central America still.

For now I'd like to just focus on the short term.
Eastern Caribbean already visited by Bret is on watch.
Waiting to see what 95L has in store for it.
I know it seems Deja Vu.
But patterns exist during each hurricane season.
So keep watching. 
I'll update on 95L later today. 
If 96L is introduced I'll update as well.
Now for some musing and entertainment.
While waiting to see what 95L has under the hood..

Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter.
Check me out there for faster and sillier comments.
Well only sometimes.
When the tropics get real we get real serious.
For now I'm still doing a tap dance.
Thinking of buying a baton.
I used to do baton twirling.. 

The first time you see it ... it's exciting but after a while it seems Deja Vu. We've tracked before, loved before and yet who knows where or when? Waves don't always tell..

Look Dean Martin looks like he's traveling a formation zone ..
Never realized he looks like Dave Schwartz in ways til now.
Makes sense. Dave liked to tap dance too..

See? You be the judge.......

He is missed every hurricane season.
One of a kind.

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