Hurricane Harbor

A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!

Saturday, July 08, 2017

XTD4 & Watching Africa. Remnants Flare Up Again At Night. Strong ULL. Wave Off Africa Sets Sail.. Bon Voyage. Watch it on the New Africa Sat on Spaghetti Models.

Strong tropical wave in the Atlantic NW of PR (Ex-TD4)
Strong wave moving off of Africa.
Some convection in the BOC

Very Early Sunday Morning round up of the tropics. A post to remind people why we are watching EX TD4 and the other things that are spinning in the tropical night. I'll be updating later today after some good morning visible loops and some even stronger coffee. Part of the whole "taking off for the Shabbos thing" on Saturday is that it is really the only day I "rest" and even that is a weak description as there is a lot of food and friends involved with many things to do. But I actually end up taking a nap on Saturday afternoon which is nice, but then I'm up late on Saturday night well into early Sunday morning because I slept in the afternoon. So some of y'all are going to bed and I'm just waking up :) Blessedly it rained Saturday afternoon in Raleigh late in the day and the temperature dropped at least 10 degrees (felt like 20...) and for a few minutes it as wonderful. Despite being a "Miami girl" up here in Raleigh I'm not fond of long, hot summers. In Miami we have a breeze, in Raleigh it's just hot.

Above we have a view of Hurricane Eugene in the Epac and what is left of TD 4 in the Atlantic. And TD for is not a depression anymore as it lacks the closed circulation it once had when it had designation and actually seemed more like a Tropical Storm that never got the upgrade. I didn't know we stopped upgrading storms if we didn't think they'd make it but guess we did as it had a closed circulation and winds in excess of TS status.... That said it's merely an "Ex" a remnant being followed online by many meteorologists especially as it's moving into an area where it is closer to interaction with land. Easy to ignore a weak TD at 50 degrees West in embedded in dry Saharan Dust and another to ignore a strong, tropical wave over warmer water, in a more moist environment close to land that is flaring up.

So I'm going to show a few things people have said online already and my thoughts on this mess known online as Ex TD4. It's a meteorologists job to "Track the Tropics" during the Hurricane Season when you are located in Hurricane Country. Jacksonville Florida is located in Hurricane Country and Hurricane Matthew and Tropical Storm Julia last year drove that point home in case anyone wondered. They go through long periods between being affected by a tropical system, but they are still cleaning up from Matthew. They be watching the remnants of TD4 just in case.

I mean how can you NOT track a wave like that?
Let's forget it was TD4.
It just is a large area of convection close in.
It's updated every six hours in real time. It's worth your reading on quiet days especially.

The NHC puts out a product many read.
Any wave worth talking about gets mentioned.
Even unclassified convection gets a mention.
For years this was my tropical bible.
You learn to read them.... between the lines.

The most often given reason why the remnants of TD4 were not worth watching was that it would die in an area in the middle of the ocean that was "dry" and devoid of moisture cut off from the fuel it would need to survive. Despite some models insisting it could make a comeback it made no sense to be told in discussion it would be in an negative environment for later development. To say a ULL is forecast to pop up and blow it away would make sense if we could predict where ULLs were forming. The Water Vapor loop does that sometimes in it's own way. But to say a wave moving past the strong area of SAL close to land in warmer water wouldn't have a chance of flaring up and oh my gosh even getting a possible floater or Invest back was illogical. Note above it says about Ex TD4: "atmospheric environment surrounding the wave is very moist as observed in TPW loop" to which I say "No Duh Sherlock!"  And, that is why many meteorologists tracking the tropics are monitoring TD4 in the same way the NHC is doing quietly.  You can see below the signature is quite healthy tonight on the beautiful view of the world below.

Even from far away anyone can see that...
...with or without a floater.
So there was no Invest on NRL.
You go to the "global" view.
Whoah... big flare up.
Even from outer space you can see Ex TD4
Can it maintain that convection?
Always been the question and still is..
You can also see the wave that departed Africa.

Below is a look at EX TD4 by Dvorak.
Got some intensity there.
Lost it's circulation but kept its Mojo

WHY is Ex TD4 flaring up?
Note the ULL to it's North.

wv-animated.gif (720×480)

The black cyclonic looking spinning ULL to it's North.
Basically the nearness of the ULL ... that set up sort of "tickles" TD4
There is a meteorological explanation...
But basically it enhances convection.
You can see they work in tandem.
If you follow me on Twitter..
..I go into funkier explanations ;)
Serious this is Meteorology 101 by the book.
You need the WV Loop to see the Invisible ULL below.
You wonder why I am talking about TD4?
Why not talk about the NEW WAVE by Africa?

1. XTD4 is healthier looking tonight.
2. XTD4 is closer to land & SE US
3. A sea of SAL separates them tonight.
4. There is plenty of time to talk about the new wave..

And Mike being as wonderful as he is...
..put up a nice "Watching Africa" satellite link tonight.
Love it :)
Thank you... 

He's got a lot of great products there.
In times like now when it's slow...
Learn to use them and see their value.

Bottom Left Squares on Spaghetti Models.
Mike has 2 views of SAL.
You can see XTD4 past the SAL.
New wave going to have to deal with it.

The big white beach ball E of the SAL is XTD4

Below that is a link that shows where to watch.
Vorticity signatures shown below.

You'll need them later in the season.
Maybe later this week!

latest72hrs.gif (947×405)

IF you see the orange blob known as XTD4..
..begin to spin it may get it's floater back!

Stay tuned... 
Whenever a tropical wave moves into our part of the world.
It is always worth watching til it's way North of us...
...or falls apart with no apparent convection left.

I wouldn't bet money on it.
But I wouldn't bet against it either.

Besos BobbiStorm
Follow me on Twitter for faster updates.

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