Hurricane Harbor

A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!

Wednesday, July 05, 2017

TD4 Forms from Invest 94L ... NHC Says Just TD But We'll See. Time Will Tell. As I said... when it approached 40 West it intensified and pulled together .. Keep Watching.

Cone below:

Loop of Funktop below.
Again I said to watch for greens to appear.
And they did.
Thanks to the reader who Tweeted me while I was cooking dinner.
And, I've been staring since.
Dinner came out well.. but I digress.
Look at that spin.. it crossing 40 W as TD4

ft_lalo-animated.gif (720×480)

NHC upgraded Invest 94L to Tropical Depression 4 based on satellite imagery and data that validates what many of us tonight knew... it had the parameters for upgrade. Since late last night convection continued to grow and maintain intensity while growing in a multitude of ways. No longer a dot it looked like a blob tonight and then it began to spin. Dvorak rating seemed strong and it finally detached from the Monsoon Trough and began to finally pick up speed.

The NHC tonight also sounds like the wicked stepmother that agreed to babysit and make dinner but announces at the beginning of the meal "there is NO desert tonight!"

I mean really was this necessary? Seems a bit overly defensive....

You can see from the wide view it's no longer a small dot of convection but a Tropical Depression that is not forecast to be stronger than 35 mph though I wouldn't bet the farm on that one. I'm not expecting this to go Cat 1 but a minimal Tropical Storm is possible. And, just being a named entity in this part of the Atlantic barely at 40 W in early July is HUGE.

latest_wv_loop.gif (535×440)

I'll be updating in the morning going long on discussion.

The point is it has a very rough road ahead.
Which is why they made it clear it's just a TD.
Time will tell.

Again I said multiple times the early models said 40 W.
It's at 38.5 West moving WNW at 14 MPH
Pressure high at 1009
12.8 N 38.4W
Winds 30 MPH

Impressive in that this is where the models marked the spot.
So do we throw out those models that were right?
Or go with the new models from today?

It has to deal with shear...
...dry air (what else is new)

latest72hrs.gif (947×405)

As I said earlier it has been pulling in moist air from the South.
You can see that above.

Can it stay alive and prove the NHC wrong?
Does it really want the Don name?
Check with for the latest.. models 

Many possibilities down the road..
Even if it falls apart it can come back.
It can come back close to land.
That is if it does fall apart as predicted.
So this needs to be watched.
Even if further development is later rather than sooner.
Should be a battle to survive the thin wall of shear.
ULL is apparent to it's NW

sat_wv_east_loop-12.gif (640×512)

Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter.
Faster updates on Twitter.

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At 5:31 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

So if you were in the Riviera Maya from July 8th to 13th, would you continue to watch this or just enjoy your vacation? Thanks and great blog.


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