Hurricane Harbor

A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!

Wednesday, July 05, 2017

94L Still a Contender. NHC Lowers Chances to 60% Approaching 40 W Where Models Originally Showed It Developing. Keep Watching... It's Still There After All These Days.

Today has been an interesting day for Invest 94L
1. It remains alive.
2. It's structure is more visible.
3. It's convective burst has maintained itself....

It's taking the more difficult road that is clear.
And the longer it stays weak the further West it gets.
Why is that important?
Because at some point the Bermuda High will build in..
At some point it gets closer to land concerns.
The dream of a Fish Storm fades away.

Now it could simply give it up to shear....
Disappear...  poof...finally gone.
But it has showed a stubborn persistence so far.
And that's because it does have a weak circulation.
It's not just a bunch of weather moving WNW.
Actually it had very little weather at all.
Just a weak circulation moving W to WNW.

Notice how the ULL steals your attention away from 94L
And in between a sea of dust and dry air.

Officially NHC lowered it's chances some.

We are back to orange 60% chances over 5 days.

sat_wv_east_loop-12.gif (640×512)

If you watch the loop above you will see two things.
Invest 94L bottom right spinning a bit.
To it's NW is a strong ULL also spinning.
The moth and the flame basically.
Spoiler alert 94L is the moth.

Models continue to extrapolate their previous tracks.
Except they get closer to our world on each run.

So remember what I said about eventually the high will build in?
Notice the latter part of the models show a bend to the left.
(left means West but we don't want to panic anyone)

The good news is that some of the models show it coming together, falling apart, coming together and eventually falling apart before making landfall as a tropical mess with no real strength.

You can run the GFS model above and see what I mean or you can just trust me ;)
Euro below...

What do I think? I don't trust models ten days out and counting. I trust short term models and watch the long term models. Shear forecasting is iffy at best and my trust in a cold front being strong enough to get down past the Carolinas in hot July evaporates in the 90 degree temperature and very heavy humidity. Trust me I would love to see it happen but I have low confidence in that happening. The Upper Level Low is putting on a great show but like hurricanes they have their day in the sun and eventually fill in or move somewhere else and the High comes back like the infamous cat. And, yes it IS a cat and mouse game always, every day during the hurricane season.

Elsewhere there is a wave moving towards Florida and the Bahamas and much moisture lingering around the Caribbean. Nothing specific to worry on as much as to watch for trends, patterns and such. Again that is not a projected path or model for Invest 94L just the previous wave and where moisture goes is often a pattern to watch. Let's say Invest 94L doesn't become a Tropical Storm and it turns into a semi open wave .... where would that moisture go?

It has somewhat separated from the Monsoon Trough.
You can see it's loose circulation as well as the ULL.
The ULL is Goliath and 94L is David currently.
Does 94L have a game plan to get the D storm name?
Stay tuned.

How can it look so bad and still be a contender you wonder?

It's more there than not there.
The road ahead is iffy.
Yet it remains.

It may look like just a dot to you but that's the Dvorak.
This is the best is has looked on the Dvorak in days.
Shows intensity. Strong winds, nasty weather.

latest72hrs.gif (947×405)

Yesterday it developed a mirror like spot to the South.
Not really a tail but a lot of moisture to the South.
And since last yesterday it sort of sucked that moisture up.
Keeping it alive.
Think Red Bull.
See loop above.

See the white vapor trail below 94L helping to keep it alive?
Where will it go if it survives?
If it develops it will move more to the North and stay further East.
Every day it doesn't develop it ends up further South.
And further West dragging the models with it.
Kind of like where the previous wave is now.

I can only tell you to check back often.
Check your favorites sources.
Don't worry on it.
Don't write it off.
Just keep watching.
Time will tell.

And that longitude line it's approaching is 40 West.
Go back to my previous post shown below.
I said over and over the models don't develop it until 40 West.

Monday I showed you these 3 models above.
Remember? IF you didn't read it read it now please.
In different intensities it was forecast to end up there.
Models change often. 
The Invest remains and so do the questions.
Don't believe long term models.
But watch the trend and watch the system.
And check back here often.
Again time will tell.

Besos BobbiStorm
Follow me on Twitter for fast updates in real time.

Ps Watch to see if the reds hang in there.
If you see any green... watch more often ;)
It's approaching 40 West where the water is warmer.

ft_lalo-animated.gif (720×480)

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