Tropics Weekend Watch -- Quiet Despite Model Whispers on Development in July. Strong High. Stubborn Waves.

I'm prefacing this post with the request that you read the previous two posts that explain why we are in the doldrums of the Hurricane Season while the Atlantic rests up and gets back on track. The previous post shows typical types of hurricane tracks that will be important to remember in about 10 days time. It's June and this is exactly where we should be, but after July 4th expect an uptick of fireworks in the tropics on the Atlantic side once again. You will notice a stubborn wave battling it's way West like the one before it in a sea of dry air and Saharan Dust. Around 40 West these waves wake up, smell warmer water and make a run for going the distance. They hit the shear at the entrance to the Eastern Carib and their moisture gets pushed up a bit to the North, part of the wave tries to go West and other parts move North of the Islands. This is the pattern that usually begins in July and ends up giving us a dramatic September. This year it began in June and I'd expect August to be prime time a bit earlier than usual.

Connect the dots above.

There are waves leaving Africa every few days.

The High remains a strong feature.

SAL is in it's seasonal place.

It's like it has a vacation condo for June and July..

Shear is nominal for this time of year.

Models though show a few possibilities.

Weak possibilities I may add.

Sort of burps in the High Pressure that dominates.

Let's go through the models fast.

Canadian shows the Epac being active, Atlantic quiet.

Euro doesn't show anything but a huge High.

GFS does a remake of Bertha with a way happier ending for North Carolina.

GFS Para ... sort of slides something very weak through the Florida Straits and hooks back.

I put those models up in alphabetical order so not giving any weight to any in particular.

I'm not in love with this set of waves yet despite some weak model support. Not sure what the GFS is sniffing, but I wish my coffee was that strong this morning. So let's let those waves leaving Africa bulk up a bit as they don't have much of a twist going on just yet. The water needs to be warmer, we need to get further into July.

And as always models update every so many hours and offer different solutions from run to run. Last night the GFS took a storm into the Islands, then lifting North tracing Hurricane Bertha's path towards Florida and then curving up towards the Carolinas. Today the same model shows the same similar set up but weaker and the track is more the right missing land on it's long journey across the sea. See last night's GFS wild ride in July.

When there is consistency we pay attention.

When said wave has consistent convection...

..we pay attention.

But we watch always.

Sometimes we are amused.

Sometimes annoyed.

Sometimes bored.

Sometimes worried.

July has a worry buster for everyone.

It's called July 4th...

And this year the beaches seem to be open.

Enjoy it as you may not get another chance come Labor Day.

Keep watching.

Besos BobbiStorm

Follow me on Twitter for faster updates.

@bobbistorm

Ps It's possible that one of those stubborn waves that breaks through the gates of the Caribbean may make it into the Epac and form there into something but that's a real long shot. Gotta watch stubborn waves and the tail end of old frontal boundaries for fast pop up action close in creating home grown problems.  Have a good weekend everyone. I'm one weekend closer to NFL football! Again those waves have great potential just because they seem to make it past SAL but they need to grow up and bulk up a bit before we see what they can really do. Coming to a tropical island this coming July....followed by real trouble in August!