UPDATED 94L ---NHC 40% Orange. GFS MEAN.. Develops Don & Aims It At Islands, SE Coast .. What will next run show? GFS Been Very Stubborn on Seeing Formation. EURO Plays Hard to Get. Bahamas Need to Watch IF This Scenario Plays Out. FAR FAR AWAY.

Invest 94L formed Saturday Evening.

Doing a brief update tonight.

Please read the rest of the post if you have not.

All is still very relevant.

You can almost see a face in that shot above.

NRL is up and running on 94L

Floater Loop Below:

There's some stronger convection building.

Building Low away from the strong SAL

Note how 94L took a big bite out of SAL.

Pic on Left is 2 days ago.

Pic on right is today.

That's impressive.

Note something I wrote back on Friday.

When models were first whispering on a wave.

The thought are still valid.

Pay attention to what I said on the Para GFS.

I'll update the model discussion tomorrow but understand this ... each model changes a bit from run to run. The GFS has been insistent on something forming. Other models have jumped on board. Euro is still slow to jump on the Don Train but seems to be coming around. 

It all depends now on a few major factors. Water temperatures, shear and the location of the Bermuda High.  The current set up is rather favorable for 94L to be upgraded as shear is lower than usual and a high of sorts is building aloft and set to be a traveling companion for 94L and that could help 94L get the name Don sooner rather than later. Most models show 94L/Don approaching the Islands at a higher latitude than the last few waves. If there is an opening in the High a well formed storm will take the opportunity and make a run for it. If the High snaps shut then it will be forced more to the West. And, yes that could include getting into the GOM as a longer shot but that shot is currently on the table if you extrapolate the models along with the synoptics. Time will tell as usual. I'll update in depth Monday Morning but for now it is an Invest with 60% chances of forming within the next 5 days. As it's so far away it's nice to have the NRL on top of it as well as the NHC floater. 

Note set up changes from day to day as do the general steering currents but hopefully this set up will have changed in 10 days or we could be in for a difficult time in Florida or the Bahamas. The high moves around a lot as does the Jetstream and shear so stay tuned and remember no track ten days out is set in stone. But it shows an opening over Florida between two highs. That is today, not ten days from now. But it does explain the problem.

Something to think on and if you have not prepared for the 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season do it now while there is water at Publix and diapers left on the shelf. You may be safe from Don but I can't say the same for Emily and Franklin down the line. Oh and speaking of the  line most models develop another wave behind this one.

Sweet tropical dreams, BobbiStorm  Follow me on Twitter @bobbistorm for faster updates!

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40% Orange Region of Development in 5 Day from NHC

10% in 2 Day... Yellow X.

Why is everyone so worried on a long range model?

JULY 12TH GFS puts it off coast of South Florida!

Worth remembering this is not the 1st time.

GFS has been stubborn on formation.

And GFS has stubbornly aimed it towards SE US.

Well after aiming it at the Islands...

Remember that song "Where do I begin...." that's how I feel this evening trying to write something about the waves that are barely there and the hurricane the GFS is showing on it's very, very long range modeling that should be called "Return of Matthew" as it veers North off shore and scrapes it's way off shore bumping into Jax on it's way to landfall around Savannah. Yes, I know that was last year and Hurricane Matthew. No I am not dreaming. Is the GFS having nightmares or is it sniffing a pattern that needs close monitoring? Obviously as the NHC blinked and put up an early, distant, faraway orange circle off of Africa. The EURO does see some sort of barely there formation and kind of loses it on the last run. More a disturbance in the force on the EURO vs Doomsday Scenario on the GFS. It is worth pointing out to the doubters that the GFS was correct in long range modeling on formation of Cindy in the GOM and closer to eventual landfall than the Euro. Then again the Euro has yet to really weigh in here yet.

This is true. GFS did well with Cindy.

Cindy wasn't much to write home about...

..but GFS saw Cindy forming early on.

GFS took Cindy into N GOM

EURO took Cindy to South of the Border

I mean Mexico not the Carolinas ;)

Future Fantasy runs of the GFS are really mean.

Next question is I know ...

...show me the Euro!

Euro as I said sees "something" there.

Disturbance in the High... 

...as I said earlier.

But this is the BOTTOM LINE.

It is possible something forms.

It is possible it moves towards the Islands.

If you don't have it download their App!

What is worth understanding is between here and now and Mid July a lot can and will happen. A storm can form and move into the GOM battle shear that is there like the waves have been doing. Because it's moving slow right now that is less likely to happen, the fast forward speed of the last few models inhibited them from forming. Also they were riding lower than this wave is that is forecast to be even higher in a week or so. 

It's like a NASCAR track in a way. The path for most of these waves until the Islands is pretty much set in stone right now. It may not seem like it but it is as there are few variables other than not forming at all and giving it up to the Dust that's out there in early July. The GFS sees a winner in this scenario and the winner is not Jacksonville or Florida or the Carolinas. Oh and the Bahamas get nailed in that GFS long range scenario.

Worth noting SAL seems more impressive than the waves.

So this wave really needs to show us the money.

And yes there are waves behind it.

But it's the negative the GFS seems to be ignoring.

Again the GFS show development 40 West.

And the GFS has been like a dog with a bone.

Will this bone become Hurricane Don?

Hmmm... 

Originally if you go back through my posts you'll see the GFS did a remake of Hurricane David and veered NW and rather than hitting Miami (just scared everyone) it slammed into NE Florida. Then it did a remake of Bertha slamming it into the Carolinas which obviously point out way too far into the Atlantic Ocean. Then is shows a Matthew scenario skimming along the Florida coast as if it wants to take a ride on A1A and then goes in for the kill around Jacksonville or St. Mary's Florida. What will the GFS show tomorrow and Monday and Tuesday and will the Euro show us a different solution? Stay tuned. 

Basically I wrote this late night post while watching NASCAR because I want to be able to look back at it after we see what really happened. It's also worth noting that the GFS does predict Tropical Storm or Hurricane Don forming and the NHC has put up an orange circle. But any models that are posted this weekend are for a very long range track and that will change often. So we watch. It's that simple. Either way this weekend or any weekend is a good time to go over your hurricane plans if you live on the SE Coast and make sure you are #HurricaneStrong. 

Besos BobbiStorm

Sweet Tropical Dreams.

Follow me on Twitter @bobbistorm ...

..I update in real time there.

Ps. A good blog post to read below, however the end is news worthy.

James Franklin is leaving the NHC... retiring.

That's big, he's been one of their big voices for a long time.

https://noaanhc.wordpress.com/2017/06/29/potential-tropical-cyclones-fitting-the-bill-for-more-timely-warnings/

Tropics Weekend Watch -- Quiet Despite Model Whispers on Development in July. Strong High. Stubborn Waves.

I'm prefacing this post with the request that you read the previous two posts that explain why we are in the doldrums of the Hurricane Season while the Atlantic rests up and gets back on track. The previous post shows typical types of hurricane tracks that will be important to remember in about 10 days time. It's June and this is exactly where we should be, but after July 4th expect an uptick of fireworks in the tropics on the Atlantic side once again. You will notice a stubborn wave battling it's way West like the one before it in a sea of dry air and Saharan Dust. Around 40 West these waves wake up, smell warmer water and make a run for going the distance. They hit the shear at the entrance to the Eastern Carib and their moisture gets pushed up a bit to the North, part of the wave tries to go West and other parts move North of the Islands. This is the pattern that usually begins in July and ends up giving us a dramatic September. This year it began in June and I'd expect August to be prime time a bit earlier than usual.

Connect the dots above.

There are waves leaving Africa every few days.

The High remains a strong feature.

SAL is in it's seasonal place.

It's like it has a vacation condo for June and July..

Shear is nominal for this time of year.

Models though show a few possibilities.

Weak possibilities I may add.

Sort of burps in the High Pressure that dominates.

Let's go through the models fast.

Canadian shows the Epac being active, Atlantic quiet.

Euro doesn't show anything but a huge High.

GFS does a remake of Bertha with a way happier ending for North Carolina.

GFS Para ... sort of slides something very weak through the Florida Straits and hooks back.

I put those models up in alphabetical order so not giving any weight to any in particular.

I'm not in love with this set of waves yet despite some weak model support. Not sure what the GFS is sniffing, but I wish my coffee was that strong this morning. So let's let those waves leaving Africa bulk up a bit as they don't have much of a twist going on just yet. The water needs to be warmer, we need to get further into July.

And as always models update every so many hours and offer different solutions from run to run. Last night the GFS took a storm into the Islands, then lifting North tracing Hurricane Bertha's path towards Florida and then curving up towards the Carolinas. Today the same model shows the same similar set up but weaker and the track is more the right missing land on it's long journey across the sea. See last night's GFS wild ride in July.

When there is consistency we pay attention.

When said wave has consistent convection...

..we pay attention.

But we watch always.

Sometimes we are amused.

Sometimes annoyed.

Sometimes bored.

Sometimes worried.

July has a worry buster for everyone.

It's called July 4th...

And this year the beaches seem to be open.

Enjoy it as you may not get another chance come Labor Day.

Keep watching.

Besos BobbiStorm

Follow me on Twitter for faster updates.

@bobbistorm

Ps It's possible that one of those stubborn waves that breaks through the gates of the Caribbean may make it into the Epac and form there into something but that's a real long shot. Gotta watch stubborn waves and the tail end of old frontal boundaries for fast pop up action close in creating home grown problems.  Have a good weekend everyone. I'm one weekend closer to NFL football! Again those waves have great potential just because they seem to make it past SAL but they need to grow up and bulk up a bit before we see what they can really do. Coming to a tropical island this coming July....followed by real trouble in August!