Tropics Quiet Today. Storms in the South, Tornado Warnings But Not TS Barry. Back From Vacation in Crown Heights. What is Crown Heights? Why You Should Visit NY in June...and WHAT IS AN INVEST REALLY?

Officially nothing is going on in the tropics today.

Invest 91L is no more.

Despite giving it way too much of a chance.

The NHC pulled the plug.

I'm putting that picture in motion below 

You can see it's remnant moisture causing problems.

I want to draw your attention to this flare up below.

This area and further to the East will flare up often today.

It's the moisture that was associated with 91L...

...mixing it up with a frontal boundary.

This was and is the real concern.

Flooding.

Torrential rains.

Tornadoes.

Too much can be a disaster.

Not enough can destroy crops.

Kind of a lesson in life on finding a balance.

We can learn much from studying meteorology.

I'm back from vacation.

It was a hectic, crazy good trip.

Not a lot of down time but found some anyway.

You gotta grab those moments while you can.

More on that later ;)

I'm going to talk tropical first.

Personal later.

Feel free to just do the weather....

...or stick around for the rest of what's on the menu.

What is an INVEST?

Please read and remember. 

Thank you!

What I really want to convey here about Invest 91L is that it actually did what most areas of tropical moisture do and that is they drift along with the lower level winds towards some coastline and because either one center could not win out over the competing centers or conditions were not favorable enough they do not develop and they end up as rain over the heartland or low lands of the Carolinas and Georgia or Louisiana. That really is the way of the world. Years ago they were called "tropical disturbances" meaning there was a disturbance in the force in the tropics ... to be plain and a bit silly but very honest. Then we went through a period of naming various areas or tropical waves as an Invest and numbering them and studying them to see if they did or didn't develop. This was not exactly a clandestine thing but it was known in meteorological circles. Somewhere along the line they went public with a flurry of fantastic graphics on TWC or your local TV news and online in the meteorological community. Social media amped up the expectations tremendously. The National Hurricane Center obviously saw it as a tool to remind people it's the Hurricane Season and tropical development could come from this little piggy or that little piggy and somewhere a poor girl seemingly destined to sweep her stepmother's home could turn into Cinderella. Seriously it's that basic and I want people to understand as the season progresses an INVEST has NO CENTER, no real CIRCULATION and winds not of any tropical designation. So what does an Invest have? Rain that has lingered or sometimes it's simply an area with very little rain but model support as models (computer programs) indicated that an area of low pressure could form over such and such a place and deserve the designation of Tropical Depression, Tropical Storm or Hurricane. The problem here is that since they give it a designation of Invest with a number it is raised to real status and it is not... it's like saying wood that could have been made to build Pinocchio was actually Pinocchio from day one when in fact it was most likely going to be used to build a bench but who knows a good carpenter might have built something bigger than a bench. Not to take away from benches that give us all a place to rest...

So yes I will talk on Invests and discuss their potential for Barry or Chantal but we may go through a whole bunch of them with no name given or the next one may form from a stalled out frontal boundary in the Gulf of Mexico that may develop a center as barometric pressure lowers and winds begin to pick up and circulate enough for the National Hurricane Center to designate it a Tropical Depression or Tropical Storm. It is very possible that could happen before the month of June ends. That is what we call foreshadowing as models are doing their thing again showing an area that may be ripe for development. And again it's a good time to look at the areas of development most frequently popular in June and that is.... the Gulf of Mexico and along the SE coast. The frenzy reminds me of that scene from Fantasy Island years ago. 

Compare and contrast June with October.

While the Central American Gyre is a thing.

It more frequently produces storms later in the season.

October is prime time for the CAG.

But that region does produce in June and July sometimes.

It's possible a disturbance can form and get up into the prime region.

And that is what models were indicating with Invest 91L.

Normally it would have developed in the EPAC.

The fact that it didn't and lingered over Central America.

And could not pull it together in the SW Carib...

..... was a pretty good sign it was just an Invest.

But the regime at the NHC this year seems to rely on models...

...more than other teams have and it is what it is.

Subtropical Storm Andrea didn't last as long as Invests 91L

Nuff said.

To read more on what a CAG is read the link below.

http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/ppapin/research_cag.php

For those who like to read and if you are here you most likely do.

Get used to reading the actual Tropical Weather Discussion.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov

You will see how many areas are being monitored for development.

When models begin to favor one area..........

...... it may become an Invest.

An area merely being watched and investigated for development.

Find a balance again between speculation and reality.

Find sources you trust over time.

Sources you have learned to trust over time.

Keep it in perspective but pay attention.

That's it mostly for the weather part of today's blog.

The rest explains where I have been.

And is a good primer for what is Crown Heights.

A place I mention often and just got back from....

Remember his is a blog... an online diary of sorts.

When there's a hurricane out there it's ALL weather ...

....but there is no hurricane today so blogging and having fun.

On a personal level ... hi there :) I'm back from vacation in New York where we went for a wedding and to see two of my daughters and do some shopping for things you can only really get in New York. Amazon is great but it's not the same as actually walking through the Louvre and it's much more fun to wander around and pick things out .... feel some cool air on a sunny day and I gotta tell you generally there is no finer place to be than New York in June. I mean it inspired a song! You can't go wrong going to New York in June. The weather is about as good as it gets !

I was also in upstate New York and I was on the road that goes back and forth from Monsey NY across the river down through Manhattan any which way Waze takes you to get across the other river into Brooklyn because Manhattan is really an island! My other daughter lives in the Flatbush area of New York and we spent a lot of time in Boro Park and Crown Heights. As you know from reading this blog I lived in Crown Heights, I went to school in Crown Heights and it's a sort of spiritual home that nourishes me as much as the incredible food in all the new trendy restaurants does as somehow Crown Heights became trendy. It's a beautiful neighbor that finds a balance for many cultures that call it home. 

Years ago it was a nice, new suburb predominately Jewish built when the subway stop on Kingston Avenue and Eastern Parkway opened up that part of what had previously been a bucolic area that fast evolved into an neighborhood of nice homes on shaded streets for young families who were moving away from the Lower East Side. Over time many Caribbean Island families moved into Crown Heights and found it also a beautiful place with nice homes, brownstones, parks and shaded streets. At some point Chabad Lubavitch moved into Crown Heights after the previous Lubavitcher Rebbe Rabbi Joseph I. Schneerson  made it his home and in doing so made it World Chabad Headquarters. Time went by and as the older Jewish population died out a young vibrant Chabad community evolved as many come from all over the world to study and live there for a while before either finding a home there permanently or going out somewhere into the world to take a little bit of Crown Heights with them where ever they live and often return "home" to touch home base as I did the last few days.

Oh did I mention the Dodgers used to play in Crown Heights? You might want to do a little bit of reading up on the history of Brooklyn ...

There's a beauty and a balance to Crown Heights where tree lined streets shade your walk through neighborhoods where people grown gardens and roses bloom in June. Now days there are street fairs, parades of all kinds and a farmers market in a park. People live together in balance in this sweet space where many feel at home and recently it's even become a bit of a tourist attraction. I feel like I'm in Key West with people doing walking tours with tourists from more cultures than I can even try and list here. I even stood on a corner to see what the guy was saying but really time moves fast in a New York minute so I moved on to meet my husband for coffee and a doughnut at Gombo's Bakery. It's so trendy in Crown Heights we now have outdoor patios to eat and enjoy the food and the view. Who knew?

Basil Restaurant NY. Awesomeness.

If you don't believe me.....

...follow them on Instagram ;)

https://www.instagram.com/basil_nyc/?hl=en

Pimento Grilled Cheese with Bourbon Onions.

Fries with cheese and truffle mayo.

Huge portions.

Oh my gosh....

Showing two YouTube videos that show the different sides of Crown Heights but they both show the enjoyment people have of living there and why it's a much loved neighborhood. As y'all know I love fashion so let's start there.

Another view of Lubavitch and Crown Heights.

And some blend the two and still call it home.

It's a big world.

Embrace what you love.

Enjoy what you love.

Accept others with love.

Wasn't this trip inspirational for me?

That's it.

I'm back recuperating from too much dancing....

... too much walking (NY...) and too much food.

Walking from the wedding party venue...

...to the wedding site on Eastern Parkway at 770 in high heels.

And then back again for dancing.....

Yeah I'm resting today :)

I do love Crown Heights :) as you can tell.

Note Crown HEIGHTS has HILLS.

I'm just a bit tired today.

We got back around 1 AM .... 

Catching up on what's going on in the tropics.

Resting today.

Writing long obviously.

Home in Carolina.

Not expecting much to develop in the next few days.

So enjoy the long blog if you read the whole thing.

And I'm home loving the posts of my friends.

Catching up.

Is Mike back from his cruise?

Wonder if either of us got any rest.

Most of us know nothing is happening for a while.

So we take our trips in early June.

June too soon for hurricanes..........

.........but usually a good time for a vacation!

Another best friend is in Myrtle Beach this week...

If you want to enjoy New York in June.

You might want to read up on some history.

I love to read up on history before a trip...

Good site below.

http://www.boweryboyshistory.com/2015/04/janes-walk-2015-

ten-recommended-free-tours-plus-over-100-more.html

Yes, Crown Heights was once  new.... newly built.

A subdivision back in the early 1920s.

Kind of a boom town in it's way.

Check out the Model T Ford!

Not many trees there yet.

Lot's now.

And that's Montgomery Street not Eastern Parkway.

Brooklyn has these big Parkway type streets.

Ocean Parkway, Eastern Parkway.

People walk... sit on benches.

Enjoy nature that is abundant in Brooklyn.

Did I mention Prospect Park nearby?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prospect_Park_(Brooklyn)

We stopped in Baltimore to see my mother-in-law.

To shop for Shavous and have lunch at KB Grill.

Really good hambuhttp://kosher-bite.com/about-us.html

Bought everything but some fresh fruit and flowers.

Trader Joes tomorrow.

Fruit and flowers!!

(Bought cheesecake at 7 Mile Market...)

https://www.chabad.org/recipes/recipe_cdo/aid/32627/jewish/Shavuot-Recipes.htm

So that's it.

Keep watching the tropics.

Do what you love....

Show love, feel love.

And make sure there's no tornado warning...

...from the remnants of Invest 91L

New Orleans currently has a Tornado Warning....

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram.

For fast updates in real time.

Ps. To be honest yes we love Eastern Parkway so much we take wedding pictures there and film CD covers there as well.  Okay my son helped make this video and he's hidden in there in a few places and it's one of my favorites so you get the idea... the feel.... the beauty and joy of what it is for me to be there, wander through the Jewish Bookstore, pray at 770 the synagogue, buy my best friend a few presents which I must remember to send out tomorrow and .... be totally exhausted from a huge wedding that went on for hours with much dancing, song, food, music and happy memories. Make your own memories, June is running out... go enjoy New York in June. 

Tropics Wednesday. Invest 91L Not Doing Anything Yet. BOC Bound? Will Energy Transfer to the E Coast of Florida or Florida or Bahamas? Maybe. It's June.. .Watch & Wait. Euro Watching Florida Today? Hmnn Some Thoughts on Why We Shouldn't Live or Die By the Models Especially in June. Being Unique and Who We Are Online...

Tropics Today.

Watching the tropics in June to see if something will or won't develop isn't for the faint of heart. It's especially dangerous to live and die by the models as this time of year due to "feedback issues" the models often produce vigorous tropical storms just to lose them once people take the bait. Simply said the models in June are basically "click bait" and that's why I watch the satellite loops and other forecasting tools to see what I really think will happen rather than click on "you should see the so and so twins today" and spoiler alert clicking on those links never ends well.

That said I do look at the models, but only after carefully examining what exists and contemplating the shear maps, the water temperatures (that change daily sometimes) and low and high pressure patterns. I watch cold fronts that ooze Down South enough to wear jeans vs shorts on a cool June evening out in Raleigh. I watch hurricane history and use many grains of salt when dealing with anything down in the SW Carib that is forecast to develop in early June or late November.

MOST IMPORTANT TAKE AWAY HERE TO REMEMBER.
Never ever rely on or believe in ANY model until the area being investigated has a clear cut, verified center of circulation. And if there are multiple centers vying for control think twice on the model until that one center becomes the real thing. Only with good data from recon and a good starting point do you get a good end result. And, even then models change in real time as the storm itself senses new atmospheric steering currents and conditions that may alter the track or intensity of the storm that no model noticed. The next model run the model will adjust to the storm not the other way around!

To understand who I am and how I think it's worth understanding I studied dance at a young age and cannot stop myself from moving to the beat of a song I love. I studied meteorology in college as to how it relates to the larger political structure of the world as meteorology and it's boring uncle Climo has dictated time and again over and over why one country went to war with another country. Even in the ever changing world in which we live... weather affects everything. If you don't believe me follow Commodities for a while and you will see how weather can make or break fortunes.  So this blog post today is inspired by Ed Sheeran and Sting as we will keep on making the same mistakes as we follow the models refusing to be the leader vs the follower.



A case in point is the word "regardless" was used in official discussion and suddenly every weather person on air or online wove the word regardless into their forecast yesterday for the heavy rain fall Texas may receive regardless of a name or just a large mass of tropical rain moving into Texas. Yeah... how did that work for you all? Yes, with Harvey fresh in everyone's minds millions of people clicked on links wondering if Invest 91L would be the next Harvey like storm. Get a grip gang. And think for yourself a little bit and learn to wait and watch and see what will or won't develop especially this far out.

NHC above.

X marks the spot.

Below... close up map.

Ledge of Honduras.

I don't understand the rush by "pros" to be the first to post the first model run when the EURO follows the GFS and produces a possible storm and then just the way most divas the GFS suddenly leaves the scene of the crime leaving everyone upset and dismayed that the EURO made the same stupid mistake. Since the beginning of recorded history messy blobs of convection have sat down on the ledge of Honduras and shear blows off their convection to the central Caribbean and models dance about as if they are in dress rehearsal and meteorologists follow every frame that the models put out jumping to conclusions. Models do not TALK they infer, they imply and they often lie. If you are going to follow a meteorologist who talks on models make sure they really understand the nuances and are not just repeating the party line regardless of what may actually happen. Models are really not as simple as they look and not for the faint of heart. Always believe in models AFTER a true center has formed.

It's always good to be a leader rather than a follower. Find a few good mets who know how to lead vs follow and know what the heck they are doing vs following the pack. I've had more than a few people ask me how Mike became so big online and especially on Facebook where people wait to see him to do Facebook Live. The reason they do is that they have not been burned by him with bad information and he is the first one to say he could be wrong. He talks on the models, shows.... no teaches people how to use the models and then gives his own thoughts peppered with what the official line is while reminding people the NHC is the bottom line... even if he doesn't agree or see how it will play out. He is very honest and knowledgeable. Yet jealous long time on air types make fun of people like us who are popular online and seem dismayed that people actually enjoy reading a blog or going to a weather website run by someone who didn't get an online meteorology degree from MSU. We are who we are and we don't pretend to not be who we are and I believe people respect that honesty.

Great song...



I didn't write nonstop Tweets using the world "REGARDLESS" yesterday as I'm not going to wax poetic on a storm that hasn't even formed a center before warning people all across the coast of GOM that they need to worry on huge amounts of tropical rain just because everyone else is doing so. Yes, I will say that IF this forms we need to worry on the set up and explain why we watch weak tropical storms in June by using Tropical Storm Allison as a history lesson. We need to pay attention more to historical analogs and possibilities and less every new model run promising bigger and better cyclones then pretending it never showed a hurricane. And the NHC said 20% chances in the 5 day so why was everyone looking for development yesterday or today????

Another person who some mets like to make fun of is Dabuh who often sees what could be, may be and posts cryptic posts showing areas where something may develop way before the GFS or EURO show them. He doesn't pretend to be head of the NHC and he is very much who he is and not afraid to be himself. As a weather community online we are richer for his presence and participation.

Hmnn.....

Oh.....

Hmnn just one frame of the EURO.

Don't sell the farm ....

... just one frame.

But nothing in GOM..

And now it's watching Florida.

Okay...so we watch.

We watch, wait and go on with life

People ask how Dabuh does this?

Pulls tropical rabbits out of his hat?

Inquiring minds want to know...

Again it's important to be yourself. No one else can be you and everyone else can weave "regardless" into their own tropical discussions regardless of the fact that currently nothing is going on but everyone is talking about it so regardless of reality let's repeat what everyone else is saying. Ex Director of the NHC Bill Read was so right when he told me people must come from sheep not monkeys.  I do show models early on because people ask me about the models and because that's the name of the game in 2018. But I take those models with a lot of salt the way I take my margaritas.  If there is one thing Dabuh knows it is the East Coast of Florida as he lives there, surfs there and pays close attention to every sign of trouble or good waves.

So there's your model discussion for the day.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ecmwf-opertc2.cgi?time=2018061300&field=850mb+Vorticity&hour=Animation

GFS shows nada.

I try to share info.

I try to educate on hurricane history.

I try to inform and amuse.

I do my thing.

You don't like my ending...

Make your own ending.

Great advice from an original.

Who makes a soap opera in a video?

The tropics are a soap opera.

The best show on earth.

Reality Show.

Mother Nature does the Tropics.

Stay tuned.

Again be an original!

Don't be a copycat.

Find your own stage.

Watch and learn.

91L is not developing NOW..

 because of strong shear.

Diving ULL.

Shunting convection off... 

Watch it...

...but watch the Bahamas.

East Coast of Florida.

And any other area that bubbles up.

It's June this is how June works.

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter

Join Twitter.

Follow me for faster updates.

Join in the discussion...

You want a long read?
Read Cranky I do... 

He's ALWAYS been an original!!

Ps......

Sting is who he is....

who he has always been.

Unique.

He's a leader not a follower.

Great lyrics.

Awesome stories.

I can relate.

5 Weeks to Go Until the Atlantic Hurricane Season of 2018. Patterns to watch...in the short term.

Today is a stormy day.

From Florida to the Carolinas.

Large storm system.

Leftover from a cold front in April.

A week away from May.

Another front on the way.

You know what dangling fronts mean?

Possible tropical development.

We are a week or two a way from really worrying on this set up but it's time to start wondering how and when the 2018 Atlantic Hurricane Season will begin. It's also worth noting that the EPAC system begins in less than one month on May 15, 2018. It's not too early to start preparing for the 2018 Hurricane Season. If you have a blue tarp on your roof (and many people in Florida still do) then you most likely know the dangers of the hurricane season.  To those of you not directly affected by last year it's worth noting this year will be busy but that doesn't mean named storms will make landfall where last year's did so it's worth staying vigilant as we are still in a busy time period.

Moisture is moving West slowly on one level and tropical air is being pulled North by cold fronts still on the move. That convergence of energy often sees weak subtropical storms forming off the SE coast. Most of those systems go quietly out to sea, however some end up affecting areas along the coastline from Florida to the Carolinas much like today's strong weather system. It's an area worth watching and many are quietly watching it.

Long range models have even tossed up a few possibilities far off in early May. Okay May is not so far away.  Note @DaDabuh has been tweeting on possibilities today.  

So let's look at today's satellite loop shown above.

The image below shows intense energy.

Name that storm from 2012 shown below.

Now note a few things shown below as well.

Long dangling cold front.

They always bear watching come May.

Oh look a purple dot in the Atlantic.

Note the water off the SE coast is warm.

Note dark orange reds off SE coast.

And we are exactly 5 weeks away.

Hurricane Season June 1st.

Time to think on Hurricane Preparation.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/prepare/ready.php

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter

Ps... Thanks for waking me up ;)

Tropics Weekend Watch -- Quiet Despite Model Whispers on Development in July. Strong High. Stubborn Waves.

I'm prefacing this post with the request that you read the previous two posts that explain why we are in the doldrums of the Hurricane Season while the Atlantic rests up and gets back on track. The previous post shows typical types of hurricane tracks that will be important to remember in about 10 days time. It's June and this is exactly where we should be, but after July 4th expect an uptick of fireworks in the tropics on the Atlantic side once again. You will notice a stubborn wave battling it's way West like the one before it in a sea of dry air and Saharan Dust. Around 40 West these waves wake up, smell warmer water and make a run for going the distance. They hit the shear at the entrance to the Eastern Carib and their moisture gets pushed up a bit to the North, part of the wave tries to go West and other parts move North of the Islands. This is the pattern that usually begins in July and ends up giving us a dramatic September. This year it began in June and I'd expect August to be prime time a bit earlier than usual.

Connect the dots above.

There are waves leaving Africa every few days.

The High remains a strong feature.

SAL is in it's seasonal place.

It's like it has a vacation condo for June and July..

Shear is nominal for this time of year.

Models though show a few possibilities.

Weak possibilities I may add.

Sort of burps in the High Pressure that dominates.

Let's go through the models fast.

Canadian shows the Epac being active, Atlantic quiet.

Euro doesn't show anything but a huge High.

GFS does a remake of Bertha with a way happier ending for North Carolina.

GFS Para ... sort of slides something very weak through the Florida Straits and hooks back.

I put those models up in alphabetical order so not giving any weight to any in particular.

I'm not in love with this set of waves yet despite some weak model support. Not sure what the GFS is sniffing, but I wish my coffee was that strong this morning. So let's let those waves leaving Africa bulk up a bit as they don't have much of a twist going on just yet. The water needs to be warmer, we need to get further into July.

And as always models update every so many hours and offer different solutions from run to run. Last night the GFS took a storm into the Islands, then lifting North tracing Hurricane Bertha's path towards Florida and then curving up towards the Carolinas. Today the same model shows the same similar set up but weaker and the track is more the right missing land on it's long journey across the sea. See last night's GFS wild ride in July.

When there is consistency we pay attention.

When said wave has consistent convection...

..we pay attention.

But we watch always.

Sometimes we are amused.

Sometimes annoyed.

Sometimes bored.

Sometimes worried.

July has a worry buster for everyone.

It's called July 4th...

And this year the beaches seem to be open.

Enjoy it as you may not get another chance come Labor Day.

Keep watching.

Besos BobbiStorm

Follow me on Twitter for faster updates.

@bobbistorm

Ps It's possible that one of those stubborn waves that breaks through the gates of the Caribbean may make it into the Epac and form there into something but that's a real long shot. Gotta watch stubborn waves and the tail end of old frontal boundaries for fast pop up action close in creating home grown problems.  Have a good weekend everyone. I'm one weekend closer to NFL football! Again those waves have great potential just because they seem to make it past SAL but they need to grow up and bulk up a bit before we see what they can really do. Coming to a tropical island this coming July....followed by real trouble in August!