NYE 2018 Into 2019 - As the Weather World Turns

Kind of awesome isn't it?

We can watch the whole world's weather...

...from up above.

NYE weather..... January 1st?

Watch the weather world turn.

For a good part of the year I'm watching waves roll off of Africa and what's going on in the Caribbean and then I'm suddenly aware of an odd noise outside ..... and I realize it's raining in my backyard. The irony is that unless it's winter and I'm hoping it will snow I rarely pay attention to the local weather in my own neighborhood. I check my kid's weather as they don't use weather apps or pay attention to the local weather until someone posts weather news in the family WhatsApp feed. It's a strange, big, beautiful world. 

And we are moving fast from 2018 into 2019 as the hours click away and the clock counts down. It's human nature to look back every year and remember, bitch, complain and wax poetic on what was the most wonderful and what was the most horrible. There are always things that remain in our memory and others we don't remember until someone reminds us. I suppose it's a good thing to take stock every year and smile and ponder what we would like to do this coming year. Goals are good, surprises happen and sometimes you actually get what you are wishing for but I may warn you as always to be careful for what you are wishing for... because you just might just get it!

It was a busy year for me traveling frequently to see my kids in the 3 corners of the USA and back and forth up and down I-95. Cranky is right my life has become traveling North and South on I-95 yet I went to Seattle this year and am drinking coffee this morning out of an Amazon Go mug picked up in the store where you don't pay the register and I literally mean "picked up" as I wandered through the store with my son and one of his friends. I walked around the huge Biosphere Globe and I do mean "walked around" as it's reminiscent to my first trip to Disney World. Amazingly my son worked on some of the algorithms that made that store work and it was wonderful seeing him and his awesome family. I was there for my granddaughter Bella's birthday party and celebrating life and family. Even without the kids there I'd love Seattle, something about that city resonates with me deeply.

Seattle is truly so magical.

A tropical paradise inside the globe.

And, then back home to the East Coast.

Yet we watch the West Coast for our future weather.

 We watch Alaska and before that the Pacific.

Look at that Jet Stream in the NW...

Wet weather up across Mexico ... 

Then the Southern Jet up coming into the South East.

The two jets of 2018...

...will they linger into 2019?

Or hook up again somewhere?

Speaking of Alaska... 

...big earthquake this year.

And there you see the current pattern.

Snow in the NW...and the Great Lakes.

Rain the Southeast.

Down the road Oklahoma might get snow.

Just a blue patch there in the middle of the country.

The rest of the South stays clear of snow for five days.

Then what?

If you don't have snow...

... play in the sand.

And Mike does.

He made a Sandman!

www.spaghettimodels.com

Somehow this year he became the Drunk Monkey Man.

I'm not sure where the girl is who called him that online.

Hopefully she keeps those things "inside thoughts" from now on.

My younger kids use that term.

My older kids tell their kids "use your words"

Use your words wisely.

Mike as always runs with the ball... 

You can buy a tee shirt or an umbrella!

Check out his site for weather and merchandise.

I bought a Hurricane Season tee shirt..

sorry not putting a donkey across my breasts.

People look enough as it is....

... nuff said there.

Cute though.

Mike's cute.

Jim Williams chased Michael.

This was definitely the year of Michael.

Michael and Florence in the tropics.

Retired names (they will be) of 2018.

A wet Southeast was the legacy.

Rainiest year in Raleigh since 1945.

1945 was a huge hurricane year...

Good for him.

He got out of his studio/office...

..and back to his roots.

Jim's always been a chaser...

I know that, trust me.

But he's an awesome Weather Historian.

He's awesome in general. I know that.

Jim Cantore finally got out of Wilmington.

They were pounded by rain before, during and after Flo.

Flo would not leave....

Tornadoes happened in Wyoming this year.

Oh and Cape Cod got some action too in that department.

Weather is locational.

Memories of 2018 are connected to your location.

Fires in California were the story of the year there.

Well there's time for a big Quake but times running out.

It's 8 AM on December 31, 2018

The "ball" or "acorn" will be dropping soon.

In Raleigh they drop an acorn.

It's Raleigh... don't ask.

You remember the weather you had that rocked your world.

Or you hanker for the weather you want and didn't get.

You hope it won't snow or you pray it snows.

I had a surprise snowfall in New York in Mid November.

Magical snow flakes falling from the sky out of nowhere.

Not in the forecast...

Raleigh got snow, a lot of snow later that month.

We have not had snow since.........

Last year it was freezing on New Years Eve...

...this year it's forecast to be in the high 60s today.

Thunderstorms!

(count ten days til snow...)

You have to roll with the punches weatherwise and in life.

I have 3 new grandchildren... this year.

2017 was the year of weddings.

2018 was the year of babies.

A brand new Instapot and beautiful Kitchen Aid.

Maybe 2019 will be the year of cooking and baking!

For most baby boomers losing the Bandit was hard.

He defined a good part of our lives.

Especially if you live Down South.

but I know a few Yankees who loved him too.

May 2019 bring you wonders and magic.

Magical moments to remember.

New friends, children, partners, grandchildren.

Maybe a new puppy or goldfish or lizard?

May you take trips to paradise or enjoy staying home.

Home is where the heart is...

..but in today's world... 

The world wide web let's us take our heart with us..

..wherever we go.

We are all on Twitter or Instagram or Facebook.

And we can watch the world turn from up above.

My special thanks to all I mentioned...

..all I implied (you know who you are) 

And to those I didn't mention but usually do.

To all of you who rock my world...

Thank You!

And as for Burt....

The Bandit stole our heart.

Besos BobbiStorm

Thanks for the birthday wishes.

Happy 2019!!

As for the 2018 Hurricane Season..

Jim and I both love maps and weather.

Going to let him do the 2018 Hurricane Season round up.

Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter

Ps... As for me I'm watching the weather.
Wearing a plethora of tee shirts.

This one from www.hurricanecity.com
Finding weather from the Keys to Seattle...
... in Iowa or New York City.
Sometimes even Raleigh...



Thanks for following along.



Enjoy the thoughts and the music.
We do get older, we kind of grow up.
Sometimes I think we get even better with time.

From Carolina........

Travel Trouble. Tornado Warnings Now Florida. Give Back to Those Who Give You So Much Weather Info... Spread the Holiday Cheer and Charity.

The over advertised storm system that was forecast to swing through Florida is delivering the punch it was expected to pack and more. I woke up this morning to three different tornado warnings as the trouble began early today. Any travel from Tampa to Orlando to Daytona should be done with extreme caution and that basically means the I-40 and most of the Turnpike is currently cloaked in wicked weather. In the old days we used to call this an "E" ride at Disney weatherwise today but if that went whoosh over your head just know it will be a continuing mess until this clears the state later tonight. And, it will clear the state so you can keep those boots and sherpa jackets handy. The drama continues up the coast as the front continues to push across the general I-95 area. A crappy day to travel and a good day to stay on top of the weather in your local area. The best way to stay on top of the weather is to check your local NWS office.

https://www.weather.gov/

Put your cityin and find your exact info.

The map below is from that site.

You can see if you are driving ...

..from Miami to NY today.

You might want to wait a day if you can.

Travel is going to be a big mess.

Florida is dressed in Red for the Holidays.

Mike living on the West Coast gets it first.

Radar grabs are all the same.

Only the colors will change during the day.

With the heating of the day it gets worse.

This is a strong front.

Look at that front go through.

Check out those watches and warnings.

My brother is already at the beach....

Taking pictures.

He's a good photographer.

Photography runs in the family.

I had a Great Uncle who was....

..a photographer for the Ziegfeld Follies!

More to that story but staying focused here.

If you live in Florida PLEASE take this seriously.

And this is the set up for the Winter of 2018.

So far anyway.

The last one swung through.

This one will too.

There will be more.

As the weather pushes through GA...

South and North Carolina.

There are chances to see tornadoes..

..and wicked weather.

But that's for tomorrow...

Today it's mostly about Florida.

Carolinas will see a rainy day.

The severe weather threat is for Thursday.

This is what we call Apocalypse Weather.

Usually we see it in May and June.

Monsoons Gone Crazy.

But this Winter is a real Winter.

And Cold Fronts are on the move.

Watch your radars.

Pay attention to your Apps.

Don't say I didn't warn ya..

Everyone warned you...

The "hype" was a warning not "hype"

Weather evolves.

Stay tuned.

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter

Ps A big PS here in that there are those online who work hard to bring you fast, timely weather warnings and information. In this time of GIVING make sure you GIVE and show your thanks. Mike for example provides information in a entertaining way yet he never takes his eye off the approaching weather. He may lose his umbrella in a tornado but he gives his all throughout the Hurricane Season and keeps chugging along throughout the year. Others such as Rob from Crown Weather has a paid for view service and he's almost always on the money so he's well worth the money if you live in an area and have weather concerns that go beyond waiting to see if TWC talks about it in real time. If you have problems separating the hype from the danger he is worth the money... and he has another site for New England. If you have a site and it has a button feel free to send them some holiday cheer. It's always good to know that people appreciate the work you put in.

www.spaghettimodels.com

www.hurricanecity.com

https://dabuh.com/

www.crownweather.com

https://www.route20weather.com/  Western & Central Massachusetts 

Description

Description

As for me I don't have a button but until 12:59 PM this site is active, my grandchildren go there and it's one of the best schools I know in one of the most beautiful places in the world. The children are taught in a way to bring out their own individuality and at least in my family I know that's a good thing as they are creative, bright and real individuals. They have a special fundraiser going on that quadruples every donation so for every dollar you donate you are actually giving four dollars. Can't get that much bang out of your buck when you donate and it's better than most the website sales of the day. So while shopping.... give a little cheer, give a little charity, be a part of the change in the world you want to see. If you do give... feel free to tell them BobbiStorm sent you :) That could be your gift to me for the holidays! They are always a good place to give to, high up on my list of charities and incredible schools.

https://www.charidy.com/MJM?fbclid=IwAR0PIRLuIfdJweN3Dc0tsR_CMeu8KN3OnHy2CPpSw1ITXMWJoChbWq9CLIM

Mike makes jokes but there is often a kernel of real truth in what he says. I thought on this jokingly the day before to myself. The "dipping low pressure areas" that are the reason for this season of Severe Weather in December....  There have been so many of these systems shown on modeling I was wondering if TWC was going to give them a special name. Mike went out on that limb but the point is this is not a one time set up, we will continue to get them for a while this winter and at some point deeper into January the pattern changes, the Polar Vortex does it's part but the Southern Jet being enhanced by the nameless El Nino will be pumping up the South and filling it with wet weather until that lazy ole Polar Vortex Does it's thing.

New Yellow Area Between New Orleans and Mobile Bay Expected to Slide West Along the GOM Coastal Region. Something from Nothing. Boom Boom Boom. Stay Tuned.

Note the time stamp.

3 hours ago we were talking about this.

Now there is a "yellow x"

Well that was fast. We went from nothing to "something" with a vague 10% yellow area along the Central Gulf of Mexico Coastline so close that it could smell the coffee brewing at the French Market in New Orleans. Earlier today I spoke about the need to watch the GOM even though there was nothing marked there as the actual satellite imagery and radar imagery showed much convection and some signs of spin as evidenced by radar and various satellite sites. Poof there's a yellow X and so there should be as this area paralleling the coast can bring much rain and some flooding in the typical bayou like low lying areas.  Compare and contrast how fast they can react to fast changing weather.

Earlier this morning. Nothing.

Now. Look there's a purple dot. 

This is a perfect example of how things are covered here in this blog that don't yet show up on official source maps shown on the home page of the NHC nhc.noaa.gov a good example of nothing is forming unless of course something pops up that compels the NHC to put up a yellow area with low level percentages. Sometimes things pop up and look stronger than any model has shown and things change. I cover all areas in the tropics that need to be watched, many of which will not develop but could develop. Sometimes art imitates life and other times life imitates art. The satellite image below combined with information from radar and local NWS offices compels things to change fast. Things changing fast is what tropical weather is all about. 

No that's not a hurricane with an eye.

It's a yellow area with 10% chances to form.

Basically the low that has been there.....

... finally made it out over warm water.

Note the Low on the weather maps below.

Remember when we kept saying High Pressure to the North..

...often shows lowering pressures to the South.
Happens over time.

I mentioned it several times recently.

Now what?

Let's go straight to the official source.

Satellite loop shows more of the story.

As expected the Low made it out over warm water.

The water is between 84 and 85 degrees.

Obviously warm enough for development.

A small spin has begun visible above.

Very close in.

Again this time of year worry less on Africa...

...worry more what's in your backyard.

It's forecast to slide West along the coast.

Keep watching.

Currently this area is expected to move along the coastline bringing rain where ever it goes. Currently we are not worried on high winds but that could change. Being honest the NHC didn't highlight it this morning at 8 AM but at 2 PM every weather source in the area and from Miami to Maine now has it up on their maps, promos and it's the new star of the Twitter. Something to talk about besides the huge heat ridge and hot weather. 

Please read this morning's post where I spoke about this area as well as others that are being monitored. And, read up on some hurricane history. I explain why Saharan Dust AKA SAL is often prominent this time of year in the East Atlantic and when it's very strong such as it has been recently it keeps the water temperatures down. Later in the summer the SAL wanes, the water temperatures bounce back and we get some form of tropical development usually; even in years when SAL had been a huge problem. There are several reports peer reviewed that explain, compare and contrast why one year has more intense hurricanes and other years have less. It's also worth reminding people again and again that Hurricane Katrina, Sandy and the Great Labor Day Hurricane all formed close in not "out by Africa" in the East Atlantic. Again for now focus less on the water temperatures by Africa and worry more on what's in your own backyard. 

http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/2018/07/july-1st-sal-is-in-charge-of-east.html

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter 

https://www.facebook.com/bobbi.storm.5 

Wednesday. Tropics Quiet. Texas Dealing With Quite A Lot of Rain From the Tropics. Extreme Early Heat Across Parts of USA. Manatees Swim North to Warm Water Off East Coast

In South Texas they have had torrential rain.

Over a relatively short period of time.

Flooding ensues when that happens.

However it's not a Tropical system.

You can see the RAIN on Spaghetti Models Main Page.

The NHC grid is there too.

No new Tropical Cyclones are expected . . .

Understand Tropical Rain doesn't get a name or a designation and it's covered by the local NWS offices, the local TV stations, online media and you probably have at least two WhatsApp Groups going on talking about the heavy rain and localized flooding from the remnants of X 91L that never developed. The irony is that had it developed into a small Tropical Storm it most likely would have made less of a mess across the wider area. It might have actually moved inland and been caught up by a diving frontal boundary. If.... we had diving frontal boundaries which we do not as we are in the midst of a Heat Wave in parts of the South and along the East Coast. What we have are West bound Tropical Waves and nothing more. Kind of normal for June during the Hurricane Season. The images below with discussion are from the NWS Discussion this morning at 8 AM.

The last wave mentioned has the most discussion. It's a wave and it covers a large area as it is not organized; it's when we talk about a wave axis. Note it extends from Venezuela to the  Mona Passage. Sometimes, but rarely, a part breaks off and that part makes a run at trying to organize. Or a piece of it makes it into another area where development is more favorable. That is what Dabuh talks about on Twitter when he discusses the area near the Mona Passage. 

Satellite image of the large Tropical Wave.

Bottom Right corner....

...is another smaller, intense, W bound wave.

Running Low in the water.

June in the tropics.

NHC weighs in on Texas.

NWS graphics

Note the orange color along the SE coast.

That's the "Heat Wave"

More on that later in this post.

Texas coast lit up with warnings from X91L

"weak trough" "with little effect"

No cold fronts diving down this June.

Extremely warm water along the East Coast.

It's only going to get warmer.

Speaking of warm water.

Manatee spotted at OBX.

When I speak of "warm water" I do so as foreshadowing discussion down the road of Home Grown possibilities either in popping up seemingly out of nowhere or from Tropical Waves that did not develop further out near Africa and traveled to our side of the world where they find welcoming, warm water that if there is no shear there can bring development close in to the coast. A manatee was seen in waters near the Outer Banks and that's rare for June. While they do wander their way North from Florida they usually only go where they can live and that is where the water is warm. If the water pools it's way North they follow the water and strike out for exotic ports of call. Normally this time of year when we go to the Outer Banks I won't even walk in the water up to my ankles as it is ice cold. Being a very warm blooded creature born and raised in Miami I don't swim in the Pacific and I don't dash into the waves at the Outer Banks screaming "it's not that cold!!" so I know what the water is like generally there this time of year. I remember in 2012 we went there for a bit and not only did my husband stay in the water (usually he seems to need to prove it's not that cold in June by jumping in and then coming out fast... he's from upstate New York not Miami)  I actually played in the water thinking how odd it was for the water to be that warm. It was a beastly hot summer in the Carolinas. 2016 was another year with anormaly warm water close in to the coast and often when that happens Manatees travel further North than normal and stay sometimes too long and then hurricanes move close in along those same waters. 

Only showing the storms close in to the East Coast.

2016.

Hermine was a coastal cruiser.

Julie formed so close in...

..she was named over Florida.

Just some things to think about.

A "heat wave" is defined as "a prolonged period of abnormally hot weather" and that's the short definition. Many meteorologists will argue what exactly is or isn't a "heat wave" indefinitely until the said heat wave has dissipated. People do love to talk about the weather. In truth deciding if several days of excessive heat is a "HEAT WAVE" is  like describing an operation. If it's happening to you it's a major operation, if it's happening to someone else it may be a minor operation. If a Heat Wave comes early in the season before it's officially Summer than panic often sets in as people worry this will go on and on through August. Panic leads to rash actions, depression and arguing over topics such as "what is a heat wave" and that's where we are at today in the South.

Note the video from JULY 27th, 2017 that shows how local news outlets cover heat waves. July not June is usually when we see these long spells of "feels like" 104 degrees more so than June.



There was a memorable heat wave in 2012 in our area. I'm finding parallels to 2012 to this year.

https://www.wral.com/weather/story/11267802/

Sometimes Summer comes early followed by an early Fall and Winter lands too soon at people's door that either love the Summer heat or love to complain about how hot it is . . .

If you believe in MJO know that Joe Bastardi is following Dabuh's tropical wave with references to an expected MJO to show up in that area. There is nothing officially happening. Models are hinting at lower pressures near Florida over hot water down the road. All I can say is you have to watch a pattern that produces Home Grown Trouble also known as coastal cruising Hurricanes or Tropical Storms.

My daughter Dina got that shot.

She grabbed my phone and leaned out the window.

Great pic

In 2014 my daughter and I spent the day at the beach in July in New York watching Arthur pass by offshore and shower the area with strong cells that made for great pictures. These storms do sometimes just pop up off shore of Florida and with an absence of stronger steering currents they travel North with the Gulf Stream visiting exotic Northern coastal Ports of Call much like our wayward manatee. Something to think on during these hot Dog Days of June when the heat came on way too soon and the water temperatures off the East Coast are hot to trot so to speak and very inviting for tropical trouble.

So stay tuned. I'll update when there is something to say.

Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter

Ps Will see how hot it really gets today ....In Miami people would be thrilled to have it in the 70s at 9 AM but round these parts the hottest part of the day is late in the day just before Sunset. Yesterday it was 95 degrees at 8 PM and the feels like was closer to 100 degrees.