Wednesday. Tropics Quiet. Texas Dealing With Quite A Lot of Rain From the Tropics. Extreme Early Heat Across Parts of USA. Manatees Swim North to Warm Water Off East Coast

In South Texas they have had torrential rain.

Over a relatively short period of time.

Flooding ensues when that happens.

However it's not a Tropical system.

You can see the RAIN on Spaghetti Models Main Page.

The NHC grid is there too.

No new Tropical Cyclones are expected . . .

Understand Tropical Rain doesn't get a name or a designation and it's covered by the local NWS offices, the local TV stations, online media and you probably have at least two WhatsApp Groups going on talking about the heavy rain and localized flooding from the remnants of X 91L that never developed. The irony is that had it developed into a small Tropical Storm it most likely would have made less of a mess across the wider area. It might have actually moved inland and been caught up by a diving frontal boundary. If.... we had diving frontal boundaries which we do not as we are in the midst of a Heat Wave in parts of the South and along the East Coast. What we have are West bound Tropical Waves and nothing more. Kind of normal for June during the Hurricane Season. The images below with discussion are from the NWS Discussion this morning at 8 AM.

The last wave mentioned has the most discussion. It's a wave and it covers a large area as it is not organized; it's when we talk about a wave axis. Note it extends from Venezuela to the  Mona Passage. Sometimes, but rarely, a part breaks off and that part makes a run at trying to organize. Or a piece of it makes it into another area where development is more favorable. That is what Dabuh talks about on Twitter when he discusses the area near the Mona Passage. 

Satellite image of the large Tropical Wave.

Bottom Right corner....

...is another smaller, intense, W bound wave.

Running Low in the water.

June in the tropics.

NHC weighs in on Texas.

NWS graphics

Note the orange color along the SE coast.

That's the "Heat Wave"

More on that later in this post.

Texas coast lit up with warnings from X91L

"weak trough" "with little effect"

No cold fronts diving down this June.

Extremely warm water along the East Coast.

It's only going to get warmer.

Speaking of warm water.

Manatee spotted at OBX.

When I speak of "warm water" I do so as foreshadowing discussion down the road of Home Grown possibilities either in popping up seemingly out of nowhere or from Tropical Waves that did not develop further out near Africa and traveled to our side of the world where they find welcoming, warm water that if there is no shear there can bring development close in to the coast. A manatee was seen in waters near the Outer Banks and that's rare for June. While they do wander their way North from Florida they usually only go where they can live and that is where the water is warm. If the water pools it's way North they follow the water and strike out for exotic ports of call. Normally this time of year when we go to the Outer Banks I won't even walk in the water up to my ankles as it is ice cold. Being a very warm blooded creature born and raised in Miami I don't swim in the Pacific and I don't dash into the waves at the Outer Banks screaming "it's not that cold!!" so I know what the water is like generally there this time of year. I remember in 2012 we went there for a bit and not only did my husband stay in the water (usually he seems to need to prove it's not that cold in June by jumping in and then coming out fast... he's from upstate New York not Miami)  I actually played in the water thinking how odd it was for the water to be that warm. It was a beastly hot summer in the Carolinas. 2016 was another year with anormaly warm water close in to the coast and often when that happens Manatees travel further North than normal and stay sometimes too long and then hurricanes move close in along those same waters. 

Only showing the storms close in to the East Coast.

2016.

Hermine was a coastal cruiser.

Julie formed so close in...

..she was named over Florida.

Just some things to think about.

A "heat wave" is defined as "a prolonged period of abnormally hot weather" and that's the short definition. Many meteorologists will argue what exactly is or isn't a "heat wave" indefinitely until the said heat wave has dissipated. People do love to talk about the weather. In truth deciding if several days of excessive heat is a "HEAT WAVE" is  like describing an operation. If it's happening to you it's a major operation, if it's happening to someone else it may be a minor operation. If a Heat Wave comes early in the season before it's officially Summer than panic often sets in as people worry this will go on and on through August. Panic leads to rash actions, depression and arguing over topics such as "what is a heat wave" and that's where we are at today in the South.

Note the video from JULY 27th, 2017 that shows how local news outlets cover heat waves. July not June is usually when we see these long spells of "feels like" 104 degrees more so than June.



There was a memorable heat wave in 2012 in our area. I'm finding parallels to 2012 to this year.

https://www.wral.com/weather/story/11267802/

Sometimes Summer comes early followed by an early Fall and Winter lands too soon at people's door that either love the Summer heat or love to complain about how hot it is . . .

If you believe in MJO know that Joe Bastardi is following Dabuh's tropical wave with references to an expected MJO to show up in that area. There is nothing officially happening. Models are hinting at lower pressures near Florida over hot water down the road. All I can say is you have to watch a pattern that produces Home Grown Trouble also known as coastal cruising Hurricanes or Tropical Storms.

My daughter Dina got that shot.

She grabbed my phone and leaned out the window.

Great pic

In 2014 my daughter and I spent the day at the beach in July in New York watching Arthur pass by offshore and shower the area with strong cells that made for great pictures. These storms do sometimes just pop up off shore of Florida and with an absence of stronger steering currents they travel North with the Gulf Stream visiting exotic Northern coastal Ports of Call much like our wayward manatee. Something to think on during these hot Dog Days of June when the heat came on way too soon and the water temperatures off the East Coast are hot to trot so to speak and very inviting for tropical trouble.

So stay tuned. I'll update when there is something to say.

Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter

Ps Will see how hot it really gets today ....In Miami people would be thrilled to have it in the 70s at 9 AM but round these parts the hottest part of the day is late in the day just before Sunset. Yesterday it was 95 degrees at 8 PM and the feels like was closer to 100 degrees.

Why Deal With Winter? Move South Even IF Just For The Winter.... Carolina is Good... Snows and Then Melts Fast. South Florida Truly Paradise. Live Like It's Margaritaville ALL The Time!

Just why?

I don't get why people live there.

I've been to Boston (in the summer)

Even August can be cold!

But in the winter?

Granted my Great, Great Grandparents came from over there, up north where it was cold all the time even in the summer (by Florida standards) and dealt with winter for a good part of the year. But over time we evolved, migrated and some distant relative heard about a "beautiful place after a long sea voyage" and he docked in Key West and found it good and put down roots. He opened a tinware shop, dabbled in tobacco and invested in Real Estate. Several generations later my son sells Real Estate in places that truly look as if they came from a magazine touting the beauty of the Garden of Eden. I mean look at this picture below. You could be lying on that chase lounge feeling the rays of the sun (with sun screen of course) listening to the gulls circling high up above with a view worth every dollar you spend. Why do people live where winter can last more than the three calendar months? 

My great, great uncle sold real estate in Tampa.

Anna Maria Island and Holmes Beach.

Yes once every few decades there's a hurricane.

Once every winter there ARE Nor'easters

3 Nor'easters this March.

Another on the way...

Why can't they just call them:

Northeasters????

I miss hurricane season.

I miss watching west bound tropical waves.

I enjoyed the snow flakes that fell yesterday.

They are mostly melted.

You know why?

Cause we live Down South!!

Go Carolina!

It snows. It melts.

The sun is out the next day.

Soon I'll be back in Florida.

Can drive it in one day easily!!

Apparently the Gov of CT is on... 

Apparently CT is closed.

Amtrak isn't running.

Just why do you need to be that person?

Okay it's a lot of money for a lot.

But oh my goodness what a lot it was..

The breeze on that lot is awesome.

A warm, soft, balmy breeze.

Think about it.

Move South.

Look at that house.

Beautiful.

Palm trees.

Sun.

Green Yard!

No snow.....

Great schools!!

Kids playing outside all year.

https://www.jewishmontessori.miami/blog

Just do it.

Live the Florida Lifestyle.

Even if just for the winter.

Be a Snowbird!!!

Fly South...

https://www.compass.com/agents/miami/levi-meyer/

Dig out, get your power back and find a place in paradise. Even if it's just for the winter... seriously the only people who should be out in a Nor'Easter are people being paid to who work for The Weather Channel!

Besos BobbiStorm.

Ps... On any given day my other son Moe and his wife and baby are having breakfast here in Hollywood Florida. They get in the car ...drive around the block (hang left at Hollywood Blvd) and order coffee and breakfast with a view. This can be your view....

Just across the street from Margaritaville!

http://giorgiosbakery.com/locations/

Snow in Florida. Ice in Lake City Florida. Winter Storm Grayson Forming & On the Move... Up the Coast. Wintercane! Cyclone Bomb (really thank u NY Media) Will Grayson Follow the Forecast Track or Provide Us a Frozen Surprise. WINDS in NY NE Intense... Tropical Storm Force Strength in a Blizzard!

Watch it race up the coast!

Currently the satellite looks like this:

Happening Already...

Today

Day After Tomorrow

The in between tells the story.

How and where this storm evolves.

A storm for all chasers it seems...
Moves FAST like the 1939 Labor Day Hurricane.
Moves in FAST.
Moves out FAST.
Leaves Freezing Cold Behind.

To be honest this is not about chasing it's about watching weather history evolving in real time and watching it frame by frame as we stare at each new satellite image coming in while watching each new model run try to best handle what may be almost impossible. There are so many elements to this storm and the real issue is not being talked about as much as the historic hype that translates to many as simply "SNOW" or "Winter Storm" or for hard core TWC people "Winter Storm Grayson" 

But what are we really looking at? Well in Ocala they are getting cold, nasty rain. Further up the coast in Tally they got snow. There is much ice on some beautiful magniola trees and when you have that much ice on so many dark, heavy green leaves you have the potential for power outages and beautiful much loved trees coming down and bringing the power grid with them. So you have freezing rain, ice, snow and extremely strong winds further up north as this weather bomb transitions into a winter storm with possibly hurricane force winds; tropical storm force winds for sure though they are called Gale Centers up north as they race towards the Canadian Maritimes. I want you to think of the 1938 Hurricane but layer a blizzard on top of that track and with those same effects. Howling winds, stormy surf and speaking of surf they are having a problem along the Low Country beaches this morning as ice is forming along the marsh line and the the tide is coming in.

The word "historic" is bandied about way too often and when a real historic storm comes in people think it is merely hype and nothing more. Some storms are truly historic and this may be the first of several other systems later this winter. In the same way we thought Hurricane Harvey would be "THE STORY OF THE HURRICANE SEASON" we were sadly wrong as each storm laid a different layer of misery down onto the 2017 Hurricane Season. You can follow Michael Ventrice on Twitter if you are on Twitter and if you are not on Twitter ...why aren't you on Twitter? https://twitter.com/MJVentrice His loop shows the size and scope of this epic storm. 

Dabuh provided the music for me this morning.

Helped get me into the mood to blog.

Thank you... as always.

Let's look close up at that image.

What is that?

Looks like shock waves from an earthquake...

...or maybe isobars around a cyclone.

It is our Winter Storm.

Mike aka Spaghetti Models calls it:

"WINTERCANE"

Reed Timmer who does Twisters better than anyone.

Is all over this Winter Storm.

Blizzard Warnings from N FL to Maine..

You don't see that everyday.

So where do we go from here?

This is one of those times it is better to over prepare for an event as temperatures up north are and have been below freezing for days. Add in places Down South as I've lost track of how many hours it has been below freezing in Raleigh but I believe last night we were around 70 hours. It's warmed up to 21 degrees from around 15 at sunrise. We are flirting with above freezing around the middle of the day and I suggest just to be on the safe side "do some shopping for necessities" today rather than hear tomorrow that the forecast was a bust and we got more than side swiped snow flakes falling. If the power goes out... you want to have instant food. When New Bern begins to feel like Boston Harbor you have the potential for continued cold frozen weather and frozen precipitation making it even colder. Snow lays a cold blanket down and adds to the deepening cold temperatures.  Places along the Carolina coast from Elizabeth City to Norfolk and up into parts of Virgnia along the coast will be as frozen as the proverbial Delaware that Washington crossed. That also includes Little Washington a place on my bucket list to visit before I leave North Carolina if I ever actually move away from here.

There's the map above.

Note those thin lines can wiggle each way.

The storm is still forming.

Below are the cities watching carefully.

Again I'm concerned that areas not prone to ice storms are not fully prepared. I'm concerned that areas not used to Black Ice will lead to tragedies as people are unaware what Black Ice really is other than something you hear about on The Weather Channel. And, to be honest most people do not watch TWC anymore and if Roku isn't running warnings and while TED has lots of videos on how to improve our environment and global warming ... alas I could not find any on the dangers of Black Ice in North Florida. Weather is local, climate is global. 

So stay informed on the real time evolution of the storm. Make sure your phone is set to show you updated weather warnings. Hunker down and hope the forecast is not a bust or the brunt of Winter Storm Grayson goes somewhere else.

Savannah currently has ICE.

Freezing RAIN.

Great Lakes Icy.

Rapid Intensification is the problem.

Note PROJECTED track.

Up Close.

Any wiggle west ups the impact inland.

I95 Gonna be a mess.

Stay off the roads.

Hunker down.

NYC media calls it a "Bomb Cyclone"

I know as my daughter asked me what that was.

Just Keep It Simple here..

Strong, explosive, winter storm.

WIND layered on top of winter weather.

Frigid temperatures.

I'll update later.

It's still coming together.

https://patch.com/new-york/new-york-city/nyc-weather-forecast-bomb-cyclone-bring-snow-deeper-freeze

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter.

;) you were expecting the Beatles?

Nah... watch out for the unexpected with Grayson!

It seems to be over performing so far...

Concerns on the power grid between need for heat and people losing power from the effects of Ice.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-01-02/america-s-power-grid-showing-signs-of-strain-amid-brutal-cold

Phillipe Moving Away From Florida. New Area of Interest in Atlantic. Winter Storm AKA October Gale Messes Up TRAVEL Across NE NYC Many Cities. Check With Your Airlines if Traveling.

11 AM Sunday.
TS Philippe.

"best it has ever has"

Tropical Discussion a bit poetic this morning.

Where's it going?

Cone for TS Philippe

As it sails away.............

Reminds me of a song........

Please keep reading if you have not.

And if you have... well Thank You!

Have a wonderful day...

* * *

8 AM

Two meteorologists are on the set of TWC. The guy points to an area of convection East of Florida not as strong as the larger area of convection closer to Cuba and says "I think this is the area of low pressure that they are tracking this morning...." the female meteorologist next to him has her hands folded and she's nodding in apparent agreement. Both look totally disgusted and  are working hard to try and sound deeply concerned and serious yet there is a touch of sarcasm in his voice.

The truth is the models did show this solution several days ago. A low formed that was broad, then it tightened up closer to Key West and sort of "moved" towards Bimini and then suddenly it disappeared and reappeared up further along the coast near North Florida and the wind gradient tightened up again off the Outer Banks. It wasn't a pretty model as it seemed to miss a few frames and moved around in a Slim Shady sort of way as if it was playing Trick or Treat with meteorologists. Now you see me... now you don't and not a totally clear cut tropical cyclone, yet multiple centers moving around within a larger gyre containing strong Tropical Storm winds...here and there and everywhere.

There he goes....

ENE.... 

Cold Front Dives Down

(look at that cold air in GOM)

Moisture down by Cuba remains.

Philippe...

Here today, everywhere yesterday.

I see a Post Tropical Cyclone Philippe coming.

Tropical Depression Philippe?

A post from Mike's Facebook last night.

Indeed. It's not that hard ... in 2017 it's important.

We have more transparency and honesty is needed.

Once the NHC gets another permanent director who hopefully stays for a while... they need to sit down and have a long Pow Wow and figure out this idea of Potential Tropical Cyclone and Post Tropical Cyclone and set up a way with dealing with scenarios such as this as they are now forecasting Pre Storm Status. It's a good idea if a hurricane is going to form just off shore Alabama headed towards the coast within 12 hours and not such a great idea to name a PTC18 and then feel pressured to put up a name and advisories on a system that never would have been named ten or fifteen years ago before the ever changing rules.  Note when you say "potential" it carries the possibility it won't happen so you're forecast for potential does not have to verify. Old terminology for this was a "tropical disturbance". 

Wind History of TS Philippe Below.

Recently for example we had a "center" they were tracking SW of the Florida Keys...then they found one SW of Key West that continued North (not NE) and then NNE and now ENE (never wanted to do the NE movement) and made it's way across South Florida without officially ever having a "landfall" because basically it pole vaulted over land or never really had a true center to find the point of landfall? You can't make this up....

And, yet........this is a true October Tropical Disturbance merging with a Cold Front during a time of weather transition perfectly in tune with Climatology. 

I wrote this last night in an update to yesterday's blog and I'm putting it here again as it's as basic as it gets.  Why they cannot do this I don't know. I get the need to be accountable with meteorological lingo and try to validate the previous forecast so that it verifies but in the end it leaves the "general public" with a lack of faith in what they are trying to do... that being "warn the public of approaching tropical weather and it's inherent dangers" and it should be in language they understand.

What's more interesting is the topic of "landfall"

Did it or didn't it?

Only the NHC knows...

As if Philippe was a broad Tornadic Tropical Gyre (new term I made it up) and it started off offshore Key West, crossed South Florida and never made "landfall" and you can see this in the loop above. The strong convection that did not have an actual center did stay down over Cuba where their original cone showed Philippe being. A small vortex (additional "center") popped up near Fantasy Fest near Key West, cross the state yet never made landfall. If a tree falls in the forest and there is no one there did it make a sound? It should be interesting to see if they downgrade this in Post Season Analysis. 

Now what you are wondering? I see a downgrade very soon and the NWS is going to have to figure this one out fast as it has the ability to mess up a lot of NFL Football games and make a mess if the weather itself stays close to the coast. In Raleigh it's foggy this morning and warm enough that I didn't even need a jacket despite being officially 61 degrees when I woke up. I went outside, took some pictures of the fog and came inside and nudged the thermostat so that the AC would come on long enough to make the place feel better. Then I opened the sliding glass door outside to let whatever "cool air" is out there inside. October is a nowhere place to be sometimes when it comes to weather prediction. Better to play with pumpkins and dress up in costume popping candy corn in your mouth and debating whether to chew them or let them melt slowly than to try and pin down a tropical system or a cold front this time of year. It's an odd time of year. No one would drink Pumpkin Spice Latte most any other time of year, but in October ... anything goes.

In a world where we can do the most amazing computer graphics showing multiple ideas easily it's hard for 2 dimensional graphics to catch our attention or truly show us everything in one picture. In a world where I "talk" to my younger kids on Snapchat mostly  just using pictures as we convey what we are up to and what we think the other one will think is interesting... we can do so much better than most government agencies do as they are tied down in lots of red tape. And, that's why I get most of my best information online from friends who I trust. These graphics below explain the story of what will evolve and happen easily. All the characters are on the map and the arrows show the plot development. The image below is shown over the radar image.... in 2017 it's easy to do this and private meteorologists do and they do a great job. 

The images below show what Philippe did in South Florida.

Tropical Crime Scene... indeed.

The tropical system known as Philippe did cause damage from multiple possible tornadoes across South Florida.  Heavy rain in some areas and extreme happiness over the cold front pushing down providing cool relief to what was an extremely hot, long summer. Tonight it's forecast to be 55 degrees in South Florida.

http://www.miamiherald.com/news/weather/article181495751.html

Have I mentioned Travel Delays?

From the JetBlue site

https://www2.jetblue.com/JetblueAlerts/WeatherUpdate.aspx?intcmp=global_travelalert

Boston is watching ...

Remnants of Philippe and the Cold Front.

Merging together into one heck of a Winter Storm.

Winter Storm in October.

So maybe call it an October Gale ;)

Politically correct Fall Colors Shown Below..

NE expecting storm conditions.

NYC expecting something....

Portland Maine further up the coast.

Weather only Stephen King could love.

Winter moving in before Halloween.

Going to be an interesting winter.

You can quote me on that!

I'll update later.

Oh wait.......

There's an area in the Atlantic.

Orange like a pumpkin...

A  meandering Low.

The plot thickens...

Non-tropical... moving away.

"We see it... but just ignore it"

Keep watching.

To be honest I saw this scenario coming but it's hard to explain what you know without explaining it in proper terms and correlate that with models that were offering different solutions. And, in truth I knew this was going to play out like this.... a messy October "kind of a tropical storm" yet mostly a "tropical disturbance" that was going to ride the Florida Keys with wind displaced from the stronger rain and then merge with the Cold Front... 

October 23rd.

In discussion on Twitter.

No one wants to tell the Lower Keys they may get tropical weather.

So the NHC didn't....they made Craig Key famous.

S Florida was told to watch carefully.

Tornado Warnings by the NWS

Nuff said... let's move on.

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter.

Ps...today's agenda calls for some shopping, planning, watching football and listening to some Country Music.