Snow in Florida. Ice in Lake City Florida. Winter Storm Grayson Forming & On the Move... Up the Coast. Wintercane! Cyclone Bomb (really thank u NY Media) Will Grayson Follow the Forecast Track or Provide Us a Frozen Surprise. WINDS in NY NE Intense... Tropical Storm Force Strength in a Blizzard!

Watch it race up the coast!

Currently the satellite looks like this:

Happening Already...

Today

Day After Tomorrow

The in between tells the story.

How and where this storm evolves.

A storm for all chasers it seems...
Moves FAST like the 1939 Labor Day Hurricane.
Moves in FAST.
Moves out FAST.
Leaves Freezing Cold Behind.

To be honest this is not about chasing it's about watching weather history evolving in real time and watching it frame by frame as we stare at each new satellite image coming in while watching each new model run try to best handle what may be almost impossible. There are so many elements to this storm and the real issue is not being talked about as much as the historic hype that translates to many as simply "SNOW" or "Winter Storm" or for hard core TWC people "Winter Storm Grayson" 

But what are we really looking at? Well in Ocala they are getting cold, nasty rain. Further up the coast in Tally they got snow. There is much ice on some beautiful magniola trees and when you have that much ice on so many dark, heavy green leaves you have the potential for power outages and beautiful much loved trees coming down and bringing the power grid with them. So you have freezing rain, ice, snow and extremely strong winds further up north as this weather bomb transitions into a winter storm with possibly hurricane force winds; tropical storm force winds for sure though they are called Gale Centers up north as they race towards the Canadian Maritimes. I want you to think of the 1938 Hurricane but layer a blizzard on top of that track and with those same effects. Howling winds, stormy surf and speaking of surf they are having a problem along the Low Country beaches this morning as ice is forming along the marsh line and the the tide is coming in.

The word "historic" is bandied about way too often and when a real historic storm comes in people think it is merely hype and nothing more. Some storms are truly historic and this may be the first of several other systems later this winter. In the same way we thought Hurricane Harvey would be "THE STORY OF THE HURRICANE SEASON" we were sadly wrong as each storm laid a different layer of misery down onto the 2017 Hurricane Season. You can follow Michael Ventrice on Twitter if you are on Twitter and if you are not on Twitter ...why aren't you on Twitter? https://twitter.com/MJVentrice His loop shows the size and scope of this epic storm. 

Dabuh provided the music for me this morning.

Helped get me into the mood to blog.

Thank you... as always.

Let's look close up at that image.

What is that?

Looks like shock waves from an earthquake...

...or maybe isobars around a cyclone.

It is our Winter Storm.

Mike aka Spaghetti Models calls it:

"WINTERCANE"

Reed Timmer who does Twisters better than anyone.

Is all over this Winter Storm.

Blizzard Warnings from N FL to Maine..

You don't see that everyday.

So where do we go from here?

This is one of those times it is better to over prepare for an event as temperatures up north are and have been below freezing for days. Add in places Down South as I've lost track of how many hours it has been below freezing in Raleigh but I believe last night we were around 70 hours. It's warmed up to 21 degrees from around 15 at sunrise. We are flirting with above freezing around the middle of the day and I suggest just to be on the safe side "do some shopping for necessities" today rather than hear tomorrow that the forecast was a bust and we got more than side swiped snow flakes falling. If the power goes out... you want to have instant food. When New Bern begins to feel like Boston Harbor you have the potential for continued cold frozen weather and frozen precipitation making it even colder. Snow lays a cold blanket down and adds to the deepening cold temperatures.  Places along the Carolina coast from Elizabeth City to Norfolk and up into parts of Virgnia along the coast will be as frozen as the proverbial Delaware that Washington crossed. That also includes Little Washington a place on my bucket list to visit before I leave North Carolina if I ever actually move away from here.

There's the map above.

Note those thin lines can wiggle each way.

The storm is still forming.

Below are the cities watching carefully.

Again I'm concerned that areas not prone to ice storms are not fully prepared. I'm concerned that areas not used to Black Ice will lead to tragedies as people are unaware what Black Ice really is other than something you hear about on The Weather Channel. And, to be honest most people do not watch TWC anymore and if Roku isn't running warnings and while TED has lots of videos on how to improve our environment and global warming ... alas I could not find any on the dangers of Black Ice in North Florida. Weather is local, climate is global. 

So stay informed on the real time evolution of the storm. Make sure your phone is set to show you updated weather warnings. Hunker down and hope the forecast is not a bust or the brunt of Winter Storm Grayson goes somewhere else.

Savannah currently has ICE.

Freezing RAIN.

Great Lakes Icy.

Rapid Intensification is the problem.

Note PROJECTED track.

Up Close.

Any wiggle west ups the impact inland.

I95 Gonna be a mess.

Stay off the roads.

Hunker down.

NYC media calls it a "Bomb Cyclone"

I know as my daughter asked me what that was.

Just Keep It Simple here..

Strong, explosive, winter storm.

WIND layered on top of winter weather.

Frigid temperatures.

I'll update later.

It's still coming together.

https://patch.com/new-york/new-york-city/nyc-weather-forecast-bomb-cyclone-bring-snow-deeper-freeze

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter.

;) you were expecting the Beatles?

Nah... watch out for the unexpected with Grayson!

It seems to be over performing so far...

Concerns on the power grid between need for heat and people losing power from the effects of Ice.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-01-02/america-s-power-grid-showing-signs-of-strain-amid-brutal-cold

Invest 90L Goes Out to Sea.. Gale System or Named Storm? Stay tuned... Anything Goes in 2017

Okay we are going to discuss the new Invest.

I should call it THE Invest as it's 1st of the season.

You may have wondered why I have been silent.

During the Hurricane Season (you know Prime Time after June 1st) I mention and wax poetic on all the possibilities of every little westbound tropical wave. I do so because there are probabilities and possibilities (she said redundantly) but no matter how wishy washy they look it is after all the Hurricane Season. March is not the Hurricane Seasons. As I said previously they can happen just like the rain in Spain, however there are certain parameters even for out of season systems. When models spit out garbage it's not right to give them the time of day. Let's say you go in your favorite restaurant and they are selling Gumbo as the "Soup of the Day" and you hate okra . . . Are you going to take it or wait for another day and another soup you like to come along? 

Really a model took it off the map and to Africa.

Actually the model took it through the Straits of Gibraltar?

What are the chances of that mathematically? 

Obviously we don't need models to know where it's going.

Out to sea.

Possibly near Bermuda.

Stay tuned.

But as what?

Arlene, the first name stormed, or a messy low pressure system?

It's March. You know how I know?

There is still snow on Mike's Weather Page ;)

Snowflakes on the white trees around the lake.

Looks a bit incongruous to talk tropics....

(wake up call Mike which way you going?)

So there IS an Invest.

The convection is shuffling off to the East.

There may or may not be some consolidation of a center.

In any language it smells the same.

Dress Rehearsal 

Dry Run (note lack of convection inside)

Both Brad and Ed are well known in the South.

People live and die by them.

Okay that's an exaggeration....

....but they trust them!

Bottom Line:

This is in fact a Gale Center.

And when the NHC says GALE...

Rarely does it get a name.

Anything's possible in 2017...

And we know where it will go...

...as there is a strong flow.

And the reason why is show below:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/day0-7loop.html

Fronts on the move from West to East.

Draped across South Florida even still...

While it's fun to speculate...

The Real Season is still months away.

That said we should see early play.

But probably not today.

But...anything's possible.

Seriously severe weather IS possible today.

So if you live in those shaded areas watch the sky.

Keep your favorite weather source nearby...

And in a land far away, way down under.

Cyclone Debbie is one to remember.

Details still coming in...

Category 4? 

Gusts of at least 160 MPH..

.. maybe higher.

Not my basin.

But good to know models called formation.

Stay tuned...

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter

Gotta wait for it........

..... like the Hurricane Season