Invest 90L Goes Out to Sea.. Gale System or Named Storm? Stay tuned... Anything Goes in 2017

Okay we are going to discuss the new Invest.

I should call it THE Invest as it's 1st of the season.

You may have wondered why I have been silent.

During the Hurricane Season (you know Prime Time after June 1st) I mention and wax poetic on all the possibilities of every little westbound tropical wave. I do so because there are probabilities and possibilities (she said redundantly) but no matter how wishy washy they look it is after all the Hurricane Season. March is not the Hurricane Seasons. As I said previously they can happen just like the rain in Spain, however there are certain parameters even for out of season systems. When models spit out garbage it's not right to give them the time of day. Let's say you go in your favorite restaurant and they are selling Gumbo as the "Soup of the Day" and you hate okra . . . Are you going to take it or wait for another day and another soup you like to come along? 

Really a model took it off the map and to Africa.

Actually the model took it through the Straits of Gibraltar?

What are the chances of that mathematically? 

Obviously we don't need models to know where it's going.

Out to sea.

Possibly near Bermuda.

Stay tuned.

But as what?

Arlene, the first name stormed, or a messy low pressure system?

It's March. You know how I know?

There is still snow on Mike's Weather Page ;)

Snowflakes on the white trees around the lake.

Looks a bit incongruous to talk tropics....

(wake up call Mike which way you going?)

So there IS an Invest.

The convection is shuffling off to the East.

There may or may not be some consolidation of a center.

In any language it smells the same.

Dress Rehearsal 

Dry Run (note lack of convection inside)

Both Brad and Ed are well known in the South.

People live and die by them.

Okay that's an exaggeration....

....but they trust them!

Bottom Line:

This is in fact a Gale Center.

And when the NHC says GALE...

Rarely does it get a name.

Anything's possible in 2017...

And we know where it will go...

...as there is a strong flow.

And the reason why is show below:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/day0-7loop.html

Fronts on the move from West to East.

Draped across South Florida even still...

While it's fun to speculate...

The Real Season is still months away.

That said we should see early play.

But probably not today.

But...anything's possible.

Seriously severe weather IS possible today.

So if you live in those shaded areas watch the sky.

Keep your favorite weather source nearby...

And in a land far away, way down under.

Cyclone Debbie is one to remember.

Details still coming in...

Category 4? 

Gusts of at least 160 MPH..

.. maybe higher.

Not my basin.

But good to know models called formation.

Stay tuned...

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter

Gotta wait for it........

..... like the Hurricane Season