A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!
Wednesday, October 30, 2019
Subtropical Storm Rebekah in N Atlantic - Fires in California - Power Company Turns Power Off - Rain in the SE. Hot Water in the Caribbean As We Move Into November
Subtropical storm #Rebekah has formed over the north Atlantic ocean. It will become a non-tropical system in 24-36 hours as it heads toward the Azores. #scwx#ncwxpic.twitter.com/HFGXRemnBU
A press release with info was sent out.... the NHC site had this info below. And I expected the NHC went ahead and upgraded 99L to Rebekah because well .... that's what they do in 2019. I'm sure I'll give my thoughts on this later at some point but for now I'm sharing the data and the information and that's the way it goes today. Next name up Sebastien...
NHC will initiate advisories on Subtropical Storm Rebekah, located over the northern Atlantic at 5pm
While waiting for the advisory to come out I just wanted to point out President Reagan's Library in Simi Valley is in danger from the fire there being whipped by hurricane force "Devil Winds" known also as Santa Ana Winds. I know that area well as it's just North of where my Ex-husband's family home was and we'd drive up there on Sunday's for a nice ride out in the country. For Baby Boomers that grew up watching old Westerns it's where many a Western Shoot Out was filmed. Beautiful area that became filled with a suburban paradise that oozed past the San Fernando Valley when they ran out of room there. A beautiful part of the world... but not today.
Turn the sound up if you want to hear my thoughts while watching the broadcast, very crazy...
I did a video earlier talking while watching the coverage online live of the fire. As someone who has asthma (mild) whose kids had asthma that often wasn't mild and that used a Nebulizer to keep them out of the hospital and manage their asthma ...especially when there was a fire out in the Everglades and the smell of smoke spread East over Miami making kids with asthma extremely sick. The thought that I would have 3 options... 1) grab my kid and leave town 2) go to the hospital and sit in the waiting room to be safe or 3) take my chances without any power because the Power company cut the power is intolerable to think on yet to have to deal with as many are today. Many use machines to breathe or help them for various medical conditions and this cutting the grid off doesn't seem right. Fire Season in California happens every year, some years worse than others... there should be a better plan. It's like not preparing for Hurricane Season in South Florida and to be fair someone in California gets a fire every year yet Florida can go for years
without a real landfall ...yet we work them into our overall way of life.
Something seriously wrong with this situation....
Simi Valley used to be and still is in some part Horse Country and I do so love horses.
Updated!! Tropics on Friday Going into A Summer Weekend. 96L Chances Being Lowered Day By Day. Some Models Tho Won't Let Go... X95L Flaring up as it Merges with the Front. Pets and Hurricanes. Bobbi Bought a Beta .... Pray for It!
8 PM Update.
Rain with thunder in Raleigh.
Seriously I know you want to know about 96L
Still there.
In the 2 day low expectations.
In the 5 day still expecting it could develop.
Note the moisture feed from X95L is amping up the SE rain.
So the rain in Raleigh was tropically topical.
And wow convection by PR but not 96L...
96L has developed two small orange eyes.
It's something........
I'll update Saturday evening.
As of earlier today
If you didn't read please keep reading...
96L is still there.
But not expected to be a hurricane down the road.
Things can change.
But today it's trying to hang onto Invest status.
Friday Afternoon it had 40% chances ...
Before going forward I want to backtrack a bit to yesterday when I wrote about the trouble with long term models regarding tropical waves that haven't developed, yet models develop them pushing the buttons for more careful surveillance. I pointed out that despite it looking like a healthy wave it was moving into an area where shear seemed strong and it seemed a disconnect with the models that were Gung Ho and possibly is why the EURO was slow to go on board the 96L Express. You can go back to yesterday's blog and scroll way down but I made a screenshot for you to make it easier. Note there's a red river of shear there that 96L would have to transverse to get to where it was supposed to blow up into a hurricane.
Bottom image shows gold and orange.
Shear there.
And the High being very strong as shown below...
...in Cranky's excellent illustration.
Made me wonder on the problem.
Sometimes in the right spot....
A wave can become ventilated and intensify.
But how it does so with that sort of pressure...
high pressure riding it the whole way.
Then it has to cross shear?
To be fair it wasn't just the GFS.
Other models intensified it.
To add to this quandary ...
Normally models begin to lose a wave ...
...if conditions are poor and it's bound to unravel.
Yet even today some models take it to TS status.
While none are screaming hurricane.
They are still suggesting Tropical Storm.
That could change later today.
Models change in real time...
Models are not crystal balls.
They are not psychics.
They take data (that changes in real time)
And they offer solutions.
So where are we currently?
Friday Afternoon.
NHC sticks with 40% in 5 days for 96L
And when they say the next 5 days.
I believe they mean on day 4 going into 5.
Conditions currently hostile.
Shear is there as explained below.
A huge high pressing down on it...
...giving it little breathing room.
Not looking good.
By the way 95L was written off the soap opera.
It's still kicking up more actual weather than 96L.
But it's future chance of winning an Emmy are gone.
Go figure it has all the convection 96L is lacking.
But the models hate it.
The front ate it.
Fronts in August.
Hmnnn......
Note 96L was briefly on a leash to the area to it's NW
The link above is to Tropical Atlantic Discussion put out by the NHC. If you ever wonder what those odd areas are that no one is talking about you use this link and it familiarizes you with the coming and going of different characters on our tropical soap opera. Seriously this time of year it feels like a fledgling soap trying to gain an audience, but by the end of August it ramps up to Sweeps Week and if you ever watched General Hospital or One Life to Live (may it rest in peace if no one can bring it back...) you totally understand this example.
Our usual characters are shown below.
More will be introduced soon off of Africa.
And possibly closer in .....
...because things to pop up often known as home grown.
Center stage the white blue bits of clouds is 96L
So the question is when it gets to near the islands.
Where that ball of convection is...
Will it come to life as some models suggest?
That's the question on the table today.
Meanwhile note the convection over Florida is firing up.
And it's merging with a frontal trough of sorts.
That's been the pattern this season.
It's just rain today.
Down the road it could be a hurricane.
Picture some hurricane down in the Caribbean.
Down near Cuba or the Yucatan.
Being pulled North by an approaching front.
A cross between Wilma and Sandy.
Could happen.
So don't write off this season because it's quiet.
It's usually quiet until around August 12th...
Mid August things look better.
August 24th through the 26th usually it comes alive.
Every year is different depending on the set up.
Meanwhile the NHC will follow the models.
They will introduce Invests.
When there is an Invest I'll cover it more.
I'm known as "not a model hugger"
I like them.... I just wouldn't marry them yet.
They are exciting and stimulating.
Kind of like a hyper, cute terrier or poodle.
My mother had a poodle once.
My boyfriend' hated it.
My friends thought it was eccentric.
My friends were right.
My mother was proud it had a pedigree...
Some of these waves roll off Africa with a pedigree.
Good looks, convection, nice bones.
And then they meet the huge High.
SAL.
We will talk about King Tutt on Sunday...
And a cute mutt often steals the show close in.
You know like that pooch you found on a cold night.
Tropics Tuesday.... Remnants of 92L Follow Ophelia. Watch Stalled Out Front. Enjoy Life!
Nothing...nada ...happening.
Note the progression of storms towards GB.
Areas to watch above.
Quick look at the tropics this morning as I'm still in transit between Florida and NC. Invest 92L is gone but it will not be forgotten as it is headed towards Great Britain, Ireland and beyond following Ophelia a few days late and not nearly as stormy. Actually the pattern for the next week and beyond is that anything that tries to form in the wide open Atlantic off the East Coast gets blown off towards Ireland and the North Sea. Our loss is their stronger than normal storm. And, as I said yesterday in a longer post we watch the tail ends of the current cold front that pushed last night through parts of North Florida. I know, because we drove through it and it was a nonstop light show as the cold weather clashed with the steamy hot weather to the South of it. Every time there was a bright bolt of lightning it illuminated the moon in the sky. Really, it was a very beautiful storm off in the distance yet driving through it felt like a small tropical depression. It was extremely windy, gusty, crazy wild..... sweet end to a long drive through Florida yesterday.
You can see the front going stationary...
This morning it's 68 degrees here in JAX and it only gets cooler as I head North today. Jax will not make it up to the 80s today for the first time in a long while. Wishing I brought my leggings with me on this trip or a jacket as when we get home tonight it's gonna be cold. Raleigh is 48 degrees this morning going down to 44 degrees tomorrow morning. But in Miami it's 78 degrees currently going up to 86 degrees today so the reason I mention the variance in the temperatures is that while frontal boundaries rule this week in most of the US.... in Florida it's still very tropical. And, as the frontal boundary languishes along either side of the state it needs to be watched for something close in to pop up. Currently the models aren't going there but climo vs computers dictates it's always worth monitoring. And, down in the Caribbean as always this time of year we watch areas that can bubble up while those in the Carolinas and Georgia are rushing out looking for new boots or getting down their sweaters.
I'm in Jacksonville Florida this morning watching TWC in the hotel room and on very slow wifi so this is going to be basic and short as I am traveling back to North Carolina today. I'm back on top of the tropics, but still traveling so as they say "it is what it is" and it's been pretty good. When in Jacksonville we often stay at the Ramada Inn near I295 as it is near the Chabad House so my husband can do morning prayers and it's also near the Whole Foods so I can shop, wander about and get a few things before heading home. They also have one of the nicest on the road breakfast buffets anywhere. If you are kosher they have the widest selection of yogurts, fruit and cereals (etc) I've seen along I95 and if you are not there is a kick ass hot, breakfast buffet. We are also going shopping for a few things at the near by store that sells kosher products to take back with us to Raleigh that is a great place to live but has less of a selection... so we stop here often when Northbound. I like Jacksonville it's got much to offer and it's still in Florida, though it feels more Carolina/Georgia Southern in ways.
Anyways........ have a great day. The cold snap up north is not lasting long as we are in that period of flux between a very long hot summer and a slow moving Autumn on our way to a questionable winter as models offer various solutions as to just what this La Nina will hold for any particular part of the USA. Stay tuned.
Wild fires are still burning in California and I've heard (but it hasn't been confirmed) that it may affect the taste of the wines produced this year. Seems logical... And in England the red sun was not just from the Saharan Dust that was pulled North yesterday by Ophelia but smoke from the wild fires across parts of Spain. It' that type of year and two regions that have very similar geography and weather are both sadly affected by fires burning out of control. And, lastly along the East coast of Florida that are strong Rip Tides so keep that in mind if you are going to the beach. A teenager in JAX died yesterday playing in the rough water with a strong onshore flow creating life threatening rip tides.
Miami was good. Nice my brother is happy (as is his bride) and nice to be together with my crazy, warm, lively family. I'm getting to know a new daughter-in-law who I like a lot and touching base with my kids and enjoying some rare time with a grandchildren who live far from my husband and I in North Carolina. And, that is why I'm often on the road back and forth .... Life is good. My sons have a knack for picking nice, solid, down to earth but extremely smart, creative wives. As my youngest son says often "sweet" and sweet it is when you see your kids happy. Having a lot of kids keeps you very spiritual.... because you end up praying a lot. Praying they all find good partners and great hobbies; good jobs they enjoy and a life that is richly fulfilling lives.
Weather has always been my hobby, though at times it seems more like a job. I studied meteorology in college with regard to my major and one of my degrees is in Writing... (English...really hard to believe I know) so I get to combine two things I love in this blog that has been close to exhausting this particular year as 2017 will go down in the history books (another subject I love) as one of the all time busiest Atlantic Hurricane Seasons ever.
Stay tuned...
Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter
Ps... It's worth noting people were killed in Ireland as Ophelia took several lives in different ways. However, as the storm was downgraded prior to making landfall with hurricane force weather it's doubtful the NHC will retire the name. After the season is over they announce which names will be retired and Harvey, Irma and Maria will for sure be on that list.
UPDATED! Flooding in Alabama & Yellow Circle 20% Africa at 2 PM - Who Knows Where or When? Good Song But Also Applies to Tropics.
The Yellow Circle off of Africa is smaller now.
But still there and still 20%
Newer models show it staying lower.
Moving towards E Carib.
Models come, models go.
As always watching in real time.
Updating more because of flooding in Alabama today.
Sudden "intense" flooding.
There was discussion on strong weather.
Possible localized flooding. Wind.
Watch the loop carefully.
North Alabama.
There is NOTHING there and then...
...BAMN blows up fast.
And then the flooding began.
Maybe not Flash vs "intense" but quickly.
And then the barrage of warnings were posted.
Most people don't pay constant attn to NWS info.
Shame because it's good.
But moment by moment we get distracted.
No cones or advisories. Not a hurricane...
Pictures posted one after another.
Water rising, cars trapped.
Backyards becoming ponds.
Ironically this was the area everyone worried about with Cindy. Inland flooding of a hurricane moving up towards a frontal boundary. Flooding inland far from the coast. This is the area that is often prone to flash floods and often just weather, intense weather is the big concern. We worry too much sometimes on hurricanes and not enough on every day weather.
Can you imagine being a child and seeing your toys underwater?
Then your yard, then it crawls up towards your house..
As much as I "love" tropical weather.
We NEED to pay closer attention to NWS.
Yet often warnings are posted after the yard floods!
Before I leave and go back to tropical weather I want to say this area has been in the news lately. They had a huge sink hole and there was new coverage of recent floods being caused partially by drains that were clogged and not cleaned out. It's a developing situation but one that happens in many places and the warning needs to be in advance but people need to learn to pay attention for fast changing weather in areas such as these. Video below is from July 19th.. a week ago.
Please keep reading as this particular blog post is heavy on thoughts on the tropics and worth a slow read and I hope it makes you think. We all remember our first hurricane, but we also remember our first flood or tornado or any natural disaster. And then we pay attention again for the next, one burned you learn real fast. Thanks for your feedback on Twitter today..
***
Yellow Circle 20% within FIVE days.
Where or when is the big question.
Last night I lost it a bit.
It was really time to hoist a yellow flag.
Not because there is something there specifically.
But a 10% yellow circle would have been enough.
NHC rarely does 10% unless it's going down from 20%
So they went with 20% this morning.
Also notice the purple off the Carolinas.
Keep reading and I'll explain.
As I say later in this blog fronts are important.
Any connoisseur of Spaghetti Models ....
..knows there's been signs ignored.
And I get it weak waves make poor performing Invests.
More on that later in the blog...
The info is out there.
But Mike delivers it in an easy to see way.
Also looking at other graphs show another problem.
The water is warmer closer in.
IF a wave gets close enough in warm water..
..and stays intact it could be a problem.
SAL is less today or in hiding waiting to attack again.
Warm water is close in.
2 of the 3 best performing model gets this wave there.
There.... being where the water is warmer.
Model discussion shows this later in this post.
If the wave can stay alive til then it's a win for the wave.
As the sun rose over the Atlantic..
The NHC went ahead and put up the yellow circle.
Health issues have come up with a few of my friends online this morning and my brother in Greece was under the weather TRULY yesterday. I woke up with a touch of asthma so this post was helped along by Bronkaid and Bulletproof Coffee. Warning it may go long... When will this pesky heat wave end? Well a good end for it would be for cold fronts to start parading across the United States moving a bit more South with each succeeding front. The tropics wake up a bit at the scent of new Lows moving across regions previously owned by strong High Pressure. Everything gets shunted a bit to the East and South East and tropical systems begin tilting more WNW in search of low pressure. Basically, as simplistic as it gets, Lows follow Lows and stay away from Highs. And that is why the waves off of Africa have been zooming along South of the High Pressure ridge and crashing into South America before every lifting.
And this brings us to the subject of time. When the tropics become activated is not as easily a thing to figure as it is to know how long to brew your green tea. Time is the intangible and it changes every year in real time as the fluid weather patterns change. It's not like facial hair that men grow and play with then cut off and then decide to grow again. Men are in control regarding their facial hair the same way women color their hair and play with cosmetics. And, many companies have indeed embraced men into that equation as Clinique for example has a line of cosmetics (mostly creams and cleansers) just for men. I'm pretty sure the man scrub would work just as well on women, maybe even better but who knows? I'm sure someone has tried it as their popular 7 Day Scrub has been somewhat watered down and perhaps the "stronger" male scrub is the better one to use.
Back to weather and we do have tropical weather to discuss today.
There is a yellow circle up near Africa and development possible (with low expectations) in the five day time frame. Again time is the issue... I went a bit ballistic last night as it's annoying that the NHC seems this year to change it's parameters from wave to wave. Don was a dot not threatening anyone but close to the Islands and they paid attention. TD4 looked way better than slow moving Don and they did nothing as it would eventually give it up to SAL. And that's not new. Since time began westbound tropical waves have given it up to SAL and yet they were watched and talked about once upon the time. The song below was before my time, but an Oldie Goldie, and no there is nothing wrong with the phone or computer you're on it's really sung that slow. Like an annoying west bound wave moving SLOWLY when it should, could go faster but doesn't.
There was a time when the NHC followed waves far out in the Atlantic watching what was then considered great satellite images in black and white. And they would write discussion like "ships at sea have reported" and they would call a good looking wave "vigorous" and we knew it might get an upgrade to a Tropical Depression in a day or so if it could maintain it's "slow development" and that was good. Now days with the official use of Invests everything has changed. I say "now days" as we always used Invests and we knew they didn't always develop. It's not like upgrading to a strong Tropical Depression that unravels and comes undone due to SAL and never gets a name. I like Invests, but I think there is a problem that now they feel if they crown a wave with the term INVEST it needs to perform better down the road. This isn't an medical discussion on ED it's about tropical weather and tropical weather is hard to predict where and when.
And to be honest watching the tropics is great drama. It's not going to UP the ratings at TWC unless a wave does more than travel westbound so it's just reality that people pay more attention to a strong Tropical Storm in the Atlantic moving WNW toward land than a Cat 4 in the EPAC moving W out to sea, slowly falling apart. And it doesn't give it up to SAL but cool water and strong shear. Boring. Let's be real people want to watch a drama be it on TV or HULU or Netflix.
But the Invests are not akin to a reality TV show that needs hype and high ratings based on scandalous discussion and glitzy locations. It's just an area of Invest a wave being investigated more carefully with regard to possible development. Going back years you will see I always spoke on Invests before they became politically correct enough for the NHC. And, now suddenly since they are using them and every station is hyping them on the nightly news "LIVE AT FIVE INVEST 99L Forms in Atlantic. TROPICAL TROUBLE ON THE HORIZON" well suddenly the NHC feels the pressure to perform and for their Invests to verify. I could be wrong, obviously, but the average Joe or Josie has no idea how much pressure there is on the NHC. They are a government agency and everything is under review or up for discussion. The down side of a good government job is that the pecking order up the food chain is exhaustive and the money sent down for important necessities does not come down as fast as criticism does. End game is they like their forecasts to verify. I get that, really I do.
But when enough models are talking on development of some kind down the tropical road and other sites that are used to evaluate the tropics are ignored because of the chance of poor development down the road it's annoying. It's July, this is the time when things are iffy in the tropics. TWC and your local news can hype it all they want but in the end it's hype. Sometimes the hype is good as it gives a heads up to a system that can develop close in after dawdling along for days across an unfriendly Atlantic and other times the hype is for nada as it falls apart and gives it up to SAL. In which case we can watch the two systems going nowhere in the EPAC dance with each other for amusement.
As for the models... it's like this. Who knows where or when? The models are great at sniffing out possible development yet terrible on intensity. Intensity forecasting truly is the Holy Grail of Tropical Meteorology. We can slice and dice an Invest waiting for that moment it transitions to a Tropical Depression or Storm but it's hard to know for sure because of all the variables where and when something will really form. Sometimes the forecast for low pressure and wet weather verifies and yet a closed low never does.
DaBuh loves to show models and discuss possibilities.
Rob from www.crownweather.com does a great job explaining what the models show in his discussion. He's always been one of my favorites as he points to early possibilities and is even better when a closed low forms. It's been fun talking with him over the years shooting the tropical breeze. Basically 2 out of the 3 models show development of this new wave. Which wave may be another question, but two show real development. The EURO as always is slow to impress. We should call it the Shania Twain of tropical models rarely bothering to wake up until every other model has jumped on it or an eye pops out. IF the EURO likes a weak wave everyone in the world of tropical meteorology gets heart palpitations. Breathe..... take it loop by loop and model by model and watch in real time the best reality TV show out there... the Atlantic Hurricane Season. Oh the anticipation.........
These are the 2 regions we are watching. One is the main area near the yellow circle with 20% chances but which wave is the one that performs and produces results? The one that's already swimming or the next one about to roll off of Africa?
Note remnants of SAL have been moving our way.
Our way meaning LAND.. Islands, FL, Texas, Carolinas..
This loop above also shows us the other area Rob spoke of today.
And what do we see?
A front and a reinforcing front to the North.
And where fronts stall out and linger needs to be watched.
The GOM has been extremely quiet this year.
However there has been weather.
Flooding has been a problem in areas.
Just regular flooding from irregular record rainfall.
A friend of mine online Cody has been affected by these rains.
I've been watching this and sharing it here.
As you see often the worst problems are not tropical.
Flash Flooding is the worst.
There is no cone or advisories.
Usually NWS goes straight to warnings.
Flash Floods happen in real time.
Tropically the GOM has been quiet though.
Except for Cindy and you know how I feel about Cindy.
No real BOC action.
Very little off the Carolinas so far.
I've been waiting for fronts as I'm hot.
Fronts often flick the switch on tropical development.
And fronts up the odds for development close in.
Several models have shown a LOW pop up close in.
Normal but is it tropical?
Both sides of Florida need to be watched.
Up in that curve of the Carolinas also.
Rob from Crown Weather spoke on that this morning.
So mentioning it as it mirrors my thoughts well.
We are always learning.
We are always growing in knowledge.
Models get better.
Forecasters have more tools.
Once upon the time...
..just to have radar and any satellite image was a WOW.
Hurricane Donna below...an old image indeed.
It may not be as sexy an image as the newer ones.
But I think it's a pretty awesome picture.
Don't think I've even seen it before.
Hurricane Donna is the first hurricane I ever actually remember hearing of.. and I was little. I mean they broke into regular programmings and they never went back. It was LIVE WEATHER ALL DAY for days. Maps and images and a compelling sense of something BIG happening. And I was born and raised in Miami the city where the local college team is named the Hurricanes so obviously old timers are hurricane savvy and newcomers are sadly not. There are always new comers to Miami as once people have gotten sand in their shows on vacation they often move down to stay and ditch the shoes for flip flops or sandals. And then they learn about hurricanes the hard way. Donna had warm water in the Florida Straits, soup warm water like a Turtle Soup it crawled along dowsing Miami with rain as we were in the NE quadrant. And nothing was ever the same again. Palm trees down near my house, no school and then the TV covered the aftermath for days. My neighbor flew into hurricanes and his mother's house was lined with pictures taken from the plane and nothing was the same. So yeah... I'm Bobbi and I'm addicted to hurricanes. I'd rather they not cause death and damage but if they are going to I'd rather help warn and educate people and help get the word out. And, yes I've chased and I've been chased and as I say when lecturing it's way better to go chase a cane than to have a cane chase you and come at your home and family.
And Hurricane Donna didn't just give us a few days off of school in Miami while people tried to clean up but it took it's show on the road all the way up the Eastern Seaboard. I may have been too young to read back then but I could see it on the television and I've been hooked ever since. It only takes one and for every person reading this blog they have their own Donna and it's name may be Gloria or Katrina or even Donna.
Besos BobbiStorm
Follow me on Twitter @bobbistorm and join in the discussion.
Ps That historic footage from black and white TV may look old and different, however the damage from a Hurricane like Donna is the same today. We may have learned more, but you still have to know how to prepare for a hurricane. I've been #hurricanestrong eversince Hurricane Donna.
Location: Miami, Raleigh, Crown Heights, Florida, United States
Weather Historian. Studied meteorology and geography at FIU. Been quoted in Wall Street Journal, Washington Post & everywhere else... Lecturer, stormchaser, writer, dancer. If it's tropical it's topical ... covering the weather & musing on life. Follow me on Twitter @ https://twitter.com/#!/BobbiStorm
