A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!
Friday, October 27, 2017
Update! 93L Does Philippe Make the Team? Tropical Discussion and How It's All About Football. Lessons Learned from Football... October Games.
2 AM
Latest models
Achieves TS strength.
But where does it go?
Options are there for NE.
IF "Philippe" forms and stays East.
It has more fuel to use.
Better chances of being stronger.
South Florida not totally out of it.
"IT" crosses Cuba.
Recon is sampling 93L's charms.
Finding definition but still "meh"
Looking better defined than this morning.
Again it's a process.
A fluid process.
I'll continue to update as information evolves.
Oh... EPAC got a storm.
Selma.
You can see these two below.
93L and Selma.
* * *
If you haven't read..
...please do. I had football and the tropics on my mind.
93L 60% chances at 8 AM.
Close Up Loop Below.
Invest 93L
Odds up to 60% for development.
Models shown below.
Models consistent.
Weather in Motion.
Forecast movement of Fronts and Lows.
Sorry I didn't post earlier but I had a hard time falling asleep last night after the Miami Dolphins failed to show up for the Baltimore Ravens game when I finally had a chance to watch them "play" on National Television. I stopped paying the NFL for the chance to watch the Miami Dolphins find new ways to lose games years ago. I follow them, being a Miami girl, but Cam Newton showed more controlled passion when he quietly ended the Press Conference and walked off the stage than the Miami Dolphin team ever showed last night. Despite the Ravens losing their Quarterback to a concussion and an ear that needed to be stitched up the Dolphins still couldn't score.. not even a field goal. I woke up this morning to 23 long messages from my brother in Greece. No he wasn't giving his thoughts on Catalonia standing up and seceding from Spain, it was all about the Dolphin's loss...
So this blog post is going to be all about football and how it relates to tropical weather. You can learn much from studying football and both seasons do overlap and are played out against an October playing field. Football is more than showing up in your team jersey and drinking beer in cold weather. I know that sounds a lot like Meteorologists in Miami after a cold front passes through finally. Mets just love Tee Shirts with their team or favorite hurricane on them. Honest. I have a lot of tee shirts....
A good quarterback on a good team knows he can hand off the ball to a running back who will take the ball where it needs to go to score or at least gain a first down. A good quarterback with a great offensive line can hang back in the pocket as long as he wants but he needs a receiver who can get open down the field that he knows he can connect with to move the ball down the field to either get a first down or to score. It's important, obviously, not to fumble the ball and turn it over to the other team. The object of the game is not to show up and then pick up your paycheck.... the goal is the play your best and find a way to win the game. Often tropical systems in October have much in common with football. A low forms down in the Caribbean, the convection sits in the pocket waiting for the best chance it has to move North with a name and a game plan and then hand that energy off to another player known as a Cold Front. Think of the Cold Front as a really good running back that grabs the energy (ball) and runs with it all the way towards making a score. Sometimes.... the tropical system is so memorable it's jersey is retired and people talk about it for the next 40 years. Dan Marino is to South Florida what Hurricane Wilma is to October Hurricane History. Most tropical systems are not Dan Marino and most Dolphin Quarterbacks are not Dan Marino. Bob Griese (and Earl Morrall) had several players to work with to get that ball out of the pocket down field. Invest 93L is not Bob Griese, however the Cold Front is as reliable as Larry Csonka was for picking up yardage and going the distance. Invest 93L may get the name Philippe and briefly become part of the team roster but it won't make any post season play off games; Lord knows the Miami Dolphins could use someone that can run the ball.
Now let's talk about the Defense. The strong high pressure and dry air to 93L's immediate North is currently inhibiting it's development. Luckily, it has a good Offensive Line that is protecting the quarterback so he is not thrown for a loss or slammed to the ground or ejected from the game with a severe concussion and needing stitches. You see when you stay in the game and you stay healthy a good QB has the time to make the big play. 93L is waiting, patiently to make his move and hook up with his best receiver. When he does .... he can take a track across Cuba or the Florida Keys or South Florida and then up into the Bahamas. Why can't I pin down the exact track just yet? Cause it's fluid (duh) and until any given play starts you are only guessing which receiver will get free and be able to catch and hang onto the ball and run towards the proper End Zone. Receivers are stretched out currently from the Florida Keys to Miami to Havana and the First Yard Line is just off the East Coast of Florida in the Bahamas. Can Invest 93L pick up valuable yardage today? That remains the question. There is one excellent long yardage threat on this team that may wait out by the Outer Banks to catch the ball (energy) and make it up towards the Goaline (New England). Time runs out when this whole team gets to the North Atlantic and yes some New York Jet Fans may leave the stadium before at the 2 minute warning and miss the exciting finish.
Look at that playing field.
The best receiver is still up by Arkansas.
Pushing South....
He played on the Canadian League originally ;)
It's common for some of the better NFL players on poor teams to end up being big stars playing ArenaFootball. Speaking of Arena Football there is a system forming in the EPAC.
Sometimes Arena football is fun..
...it gets odd sometimes
Over the last few days while 93L didn't do much and forecasters at the NHC wrote long discussions explaining it wouldn't do much for several days ... meteorologists began to disagree and even fight on Twitter. It got a bit ugly as this season has taken it's toll on many of us who have sat up late into the night or woken up at odd hours in the middle of the night trying to provide you with the best product to better understand what you may be facing while facing Category 4 and Category 5 Hurricanes. It's as if they no longer know how to just deal with a tropical disturbance in the Caribbean that is going to try and catch a front swooping across the East Coast. It got a little ugly last night on the playing field and it amazes me that the Fins could put together that much energy when they didn't show up when those last 2 scores were made in the last few minutes and any New York Jets fans in the stadium left before it jumped suddenly to 40 to ZER0.
Speaking of Shut Outs.
Many are hoping the 2017 Hurricane Season...
...is shut out soon.
As in "Game Over"
But it's not over.
Hopefully the Baltimore QB will heal fast. The Miami Dolphins can figure out that playing football is not about #strongertogether but #aboutwinning and I don't mean coming behind but putting the game away when they have the chance not having to come from behind always. Seems that part of Dan Marino's legacy is still with them.......
I'll update this blog later this afternoon when the new models are run, after 93L starts to make it's move as it is in the process this morning of pulling together. I want to wait and watch a bit and enjoy the game today... I mean "Invest" :) and one that is wise enough to wait for it's chance to pull North and not a Category 3 or 4 or 5 Hurricane bearing down on terrified people. It is worth noting that if it does affect the Florida Keys that any structures that are weak and barely holding on from Hurricane Irma may have secondary damage from tropical storm force winds. After Andrew a strong squall came through Miami and highlighted damage people thought was light but was not as trees slammed into windows that broke too easily and windows that seemed held into place fell out and roofs they thought were okay leaked as Andrew was a dry storm but the odd squall in the Fall was a wet, wild squall and showed many they didn't make it through Andrew as easily as they thought they had ... kind of like when it rains in Southern California heavy in an El Nino year after years without a heavy rain and you find out it's raining in your bedroom. Who knew the roof had a leak?
Something you may not know about me. I'm a huge Cam Newtown fan so don't be a hater. So taking a page from his way of dealing with press conferences... and I'm outta hear!
Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter
Ps...Is the real center the heart or the blob to the right of the heart below? More later. Looks like a Halloween Valentine... thanks ... you know who you are. There's a Picasso face down there too... Green and brown looks like Carolina Panthers who should #keeppounding.
UPDATED!! Yellow Area in Caribbean. Tropical Development? Yes? No? Move Along Nothing to See ....Or Is There? NHC Deals With Fall Out from Hurricane Ophelia Hitting Ireland After they downgraded it ... shhh wasn't really a hurricane ;)
Updated.... 20% in 5 days as of 2 PM.
Who knew?
Anyone reading this blog obviously knew.
Most people knew it was...
"only a matter of time"
Area being watched is visible below.
Obviously we have been watching it.
Watch and wait.
See what happens.
Is timing off by NHC I wonder.
Time will tell.
Area is festering slowly.
Please keep reading if you have not.
Very relevant discussion.
I was at the State Fair when I found out.
I had a good time.
Exhausted.
* * *
This post was written earlier this morning when it was obvious a yellow circle would pop up soon and many expected it to be introduced this morning. The signs are there, models are showing some support and it is within the realm of CLIMO (what is expected for late October) so it was only a matter of time before the NHC officially acknowledged what everyone online has been talking about for the last few days. Also this blog discusses a huge discussion going on in meteorological circles about whether Ophelia should have been named a Hurricane as it raced towards Ireland.
The NHC sometimes reminds me of that guy.... They will tell you when there is something you want to know ....or not. In truth they put out an excellent product most people do not read that explains everything going on in the tropical basin.
Old school people read the discussion above, however newbies just go online and look for information on the models. The NHC is always stuck trying to catch up and be ahead of the communication curve ... yet always trying to control what information leaks out. Again they are almost always behind the curve for those who want to know can find the info.
I'm going to talk about Mike here and his website, but it really applies to many other good weather experts online who share information. Mike always is hones; real and the first to say he is we don't know for sure if this model or that model will verify but "hey this is what the models are showing" and in 2017 when information is readily available everywhere online and in various forms of social media it's best to just tell the truth. Saying there will be NO tropical development in five days is not really the truth as we have seen many times this year when 3 days later a named tropical system popped up out of seemingly nowhere. Those watching online or reading this blog knew there was a chance something could form... Again Mike said "this is the spot to watch this time of year" and he is spot on as always.
The NHC is often caught up in a storm of controversy over their unique governmental, scientific left brain way of saying things. Often their information comes out as controlling or not totally the truth. It's not easy being the NHC as they are held more accountable than Mike or Jim or Levi Cowan. What they offer is information that is based on model analysis, Climo, weather history and a track record of providing information that people searching for information have found to be reliable. Many do not understand how to run the models or what they are suggesting and they want help understanding them so they got to https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/. Many get lost in the hype and want someone who is a bit more cynical, skeptical and they find that expert to separate the hype from the reality of possibilities. As always all of these people, including me, say that the NHC IS the bottom line. However I'll add sometimes that bottom line ends up looking as if it was drawn in chalk vs permanent marker.
And, much comes down to the question "who are you?" and what type of person are you? My mother would stop going to a doctor who started to explain all the problems and possibilities that might happen from some condition she had as it scared the hell out of her. Once I tried to defend her doctor who she had previously loved as just trying to help her and give her all the information. She said and I quote: "I just want him to tell me he's going to fix me and it's going to be okay!" Obviously my mother taught me to call the Weather Bureau when I was little and listen to their recorded weather forecast to get the bottom line. She wanted the facts and she probably would love the five day "nada happening move along" graphic the NHC puts out. However, I have a friend who feels they were burned badly by information from the NHC that they perceive did not totally warn them of the possibilities that would happen in a hurricane that came way closer than the cone suggested and they will never again just go to the NHC page and rely on the cone or their 5 day graphic. They prefer as much as information as possible feeling knowledge is power and if they know something might form and might come near them then they have more knowledge to property prepare their mind, home and loved ones for a tropical problem. Note I said "mind" first as for many who have been without electric for two weeks after a Category 1 Hurricane hit their town or experienced a Flash Flood that obviously was not mentioned in the NWS update ..... they never want to turn their back again on weather ever again. Having the local NC weather guy saying "well, that's the way it goes ... (insert stupid looking grin...) we didn't see that snow storm coming" only cuts it once. After that they change channels and search out someone online who gives them a heads up days in advance that a possible winter event may happen.
As Mike said Climo dictates we watch the SW Caribbean. We watch that area for any consistent convection that lingers to see if there are any low pressure drops and we watch the models to see what they suggest. Again, when models inconsistently show organized storms and then don't on the next model run it's best to put the models up on the shelf. You peak and then go about your life and if and when they consistently show something and there is consistent convection lingering do you really pay attention. Note the two graphics below that are shown on http://spaghettimodels.com/
The graphic above shows something might try and develop.
The truth is I am not going to pretend there is nothing to see, but there is nothing developing today. That is the truth and if conditions improve something could try and develop. If it does develop it would move towards the NE most likely and become a concern for Cuba, South Florida and the Bahamas. As always that could change in real time and nothing could develop for a week or two. But the hurricane season is not over because we want it to be over. It's over when it's over. Plain and simple.
And in truth there are areas that are going to get severe weather today, just as last night OU saw a tornado form in the dark of the night surprising many. It shouldn't have surprised that many people as when you have a frontal boundary showing the signature above on the Water Vapor Loop anything's possible.
Speaking of people who have proven themselves over time as someone who tells the truth and is someone to rely upon .... Bryan Norcross has weighed in on the storm of controversy going on behind the scenes in the meteorological world. Note I agree with him and as far as I am concerned the caveat should be how best to warn the public of the dangers of a weather system that is approaching not worrying on archaic and picayune rules. The term "Hurricane" defines a wind speed as much as it does a certain sort of closed low pressure system in the tropics. In Washington State there is a place known as Hurricane Ridge, because they often have hurricane force winds. When a closed system that can be tracked is racing towards a large population area with sustained hurricane force winds and or gusts of 85 MPH it is not the time to stand on a soap box explaining why it's not a hurricane it just looks and acts like a hurricane. Just prior to Hurricane Sandy making landfall the NHC waxed poetic on scientific meteorological definitions and handed Sandy off to the NWS as one of the biggest Halloween hot potatoes ever seen in the New York area. Long discussions explaining why it does carry high winds and storm surge but it's not really a hurricane anymore as it is transitioning... yeah, right.
About 12 hours before approaching Ireland as a Hurricane the NHC decided to downgrade it to Post Tropical status of whatever new politically correct PT term they got going today and ... that is why Hurricanes hardly ever happen in Ireland or say Spain... because they are officially downgraded before the 85 MPH winds hit and people die from trees falling on them in hurricane conditions. So if a tree falls in a forest according to the NHC the tree didn't fall, didn't make a sound and it's someone else's problem. In a world where students at OU post video of tornadoes on Snapchat and we can watch video of Brittany Spears in concert in Japan.... we obviously know the storm approaching Ireland is a hurricane by any definition that the general public will understand. The job of the NHC, from my perspective, is to inform the PUBLIC of a storm with a closed low and hurricane force winds ...especially if it's approaching land not to play word games or argue semantics.
https://www.facebook.com/TWCBryanNorcross/ If you go to his Facebook Page you can follow along with the comments to Bryan's post yourself and you can weigh in with your thoughts as it is a public forum. It's a new world and perhaps more than a visual that provides more details needs to be put up vs a canned, cartoon like graphic that doesn't really tell the whole story. Perhaps stating "some models show a possible storm forming in an area that climatology favors, but currently nothing is expected to happen for the next 5 days" is better than the blue screen that was great years ago but seems totally out of step when computerized graphics are available to show more details.
As far as I'm concerned it's best to explain to the public what is happening in the language the public uses and understands, otherwise they will stop paying attention to you and go online looking for themselves. There are some people out there who hype things and I'd rather people get the real story from the NHC than those people. And........there are incredibly good mets online who consistently provide great, timely information in advance of severe weather and Cranky is one of those people.
This was put up on October 19th.
Today October 22nd... it verifies.
As the system moves East ...
...it will continue to verify.
To me, the only real caveat a meteorologist should have is to warn the public of what type of weather they will be getting in the next 24 hours and to argue it's not a Hurricane when they are going to get 85 MPH from a system that is hurricane like but "post tropical" is like arguing if a tree falls in the forest Believing your semantic issue is more important than warning the public is just wrong. In reality...it doesn't really matter if there is a sound or not when a tree falls in a forest as........the tree still fell and it may have fallen from hurricane force winds in a post tropical system that has been downgraded and someone may have died prior to hearing the sound or... as it was falling on top of them.
Luckily in 2017 I can go to Spaghetti Models online and check out my favorite people on Twitter and I wonder why Bryan Norcross is not running the Hurricane Season but then knowing him the way I do I know he is too honest to play word games with the general public. Luckily he and the previous director of the NHC are at TWC giving us thoughts in real time with excellent analysis and honesty. The NHC has a problem and they need to wake up and smell the coffee ...as they are losing some of their best people for a reason. And if you want to stay relevant you can't be caught up in irrelevant discussions rather than warn people that trees may fall from 85 MPH winds in Ireland from Hurricane Ophelia.
My old posts re: Ophelia and kudos to Mike for keeping up the last cone on Ophelia for a long time after the NHC pulled the plug. He's honest... that's why people like to shoot the tropical breeze with him on Facebook when a hurricane is threatening.
Tropics Tuesday.... Remnants of 92L Follow Ophelia. Watch Stalled Out Front. Enjoy Life!
Nothing...nada ...happening.
Note the progression of storms towards GB.
Areas to watch above.
Quick look at the tropics this morning as I'm still in transit between Florida and NC. Invest 92L is gone but it will not be forgotten as it is headed towards Great Britain, Ireland and beyond following Ophelia a few days late and not nearly as stormy. Actually the pattern for the next week and beyond is that anything that tries to form in the wide open Atlantic off the East Coast gets blown off towards Ireland and the North Sea. Our loss is their stronger than normal storm. And, as I said yesterday in a longer post we watch the tail ends of the current cold front that pushed last night through parts of North Florida. I know, because we drove through it and it was a nonstop light show as the cold weather clashed with the steamy hot weather to the South of it. Every time there was a bright bolt of lightning it illuminated the moon in the sky. Really, it was a very beautiful storm off in the distance yet driving through it felt like a small tropical depression. It was extremely windy, gusty, crazy wild..... sweet end to a long drive through Florida yesterday.
You can see the front going stationary...
This morning it's 68 degrees here in JAX and it only gets cooler as I head North today. Jax will not make it up to the 80s today for the first time in a long while. Wishing I brought my leggings with me on this trip or a jacket as when we get home tonight it's gonna be cold. Raleigh is 48 degrees this morning going down to 44 degrees tomorrow morning. But in Miami it's 78 degrees currently going up to 86 degrees today so the reason I mention the variance in the temperatures is that while frontal boundaries rule this week in most of the US.... in Florida it's still very tropical. And, as the frontal boundary languishes along either side of the state it needs to be watched for something close in to pop up. Currently the models aren't going there but climo vs computers dictates it's always worth monitoring. And, down in the Caribbean as always this time of year we watch areas that can bubble up while those in the Carolinas and Georgia are rushing out looking for new boots or getting down their sweaters.
I'm in Jacksonville Florida this morning watching TWC in the hotel room and on very slow wifi so this is going to be basic and short as I am traveling back to North Carolina today. I'm back on top of the tropics, but still traveling so as they say "it is what it is" and it's been pretty good. When in Jacksonville we often stay at the Ramada Inn near I295 as it is near the Chabad House so my husband can do morning prayers and it's also near the Whole Foods so I can shop, wander about and get a few things before heading home. They also have one of the nicest on the road breakfast buffets anywhere. If you are kosher they have the widest selection of yogurts, fruit and cereals (etc) I've seen along I95 and if you are not there is a kick ass hot, breakfast buffet. We are also going shopping for a few things at the near by store that sells kosher products to take back with us to Raleigh that is a great place to live but has less of a selection... so we stop here often when Northbound. I like Jacksonville it's got much to offer and it's still in Florida, though it feels more Carolina/Georgia Southern in ways.
Anyways........ have a great day. The cold snap up north is not lasting long as we are in that period of flux between a very long hot summer and a slow moving Autumn on our way to a questionable winter as models offer various solutions as to just what this La Nina will hold for any particular part of the USA. Stay tuned.
Wild fires are still burning in California and I've heard (but it hasn't been confirmed) that it may affect the taste of the wines produced this year. Seems logical... And in England the red sun was not just from the Saharan Dust that was pulled North yesterday by Ophelia but smoke from the wild fires across parts of Spain. It' that type of year and two regions that have very similar geography and weather are both sadly affected by fires burning out of control. And, lastly along the East coast of Florida that are strong Rip Tides so keep that in mind if you are going to the beach. A teenager in JAX died yesterday playing in the rough water with a strong onshore flow creating life threatening rip tides.
Miami was good. Nice my brother is happy (as is his bride) and nice to be together with my crazy, warm, lively family. I'm getting to know a new daughter-in-law who I like a lot and touching base with my kids and enjoying some rare time with a grandchildren who live far from my husband and I in North Carolina. And, that is why I'm often on the road back and forth .... Life is good. My sons have a knack for picking nice, solid, down to earth but extremely smart, creative wives. As my youngest son says often "sweet" and sweet it is when you see your kids happy. Having a lot of kids keeps you very spiritual.... because you end up praying a lot. Praying they all find good partners and great hobbies; good jobs they enjoy and a life that is richly fulfilling lives.
Weather has always been my hobby, though at times it seems more like a job. I studied meteorology in college with regard to my major and one of my degrees is in Writing... (English...really hard to believe I know) so I get to combine two things I love in this blog that has been close to exhausting this particular year as 2017 will go down in the history books (another subject I love) as one of the all time busiest Atlantic Hurricane Seasons ever.
Stay tuned...
Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter
Ps... It's worth noting people were killed in Ireland as Ophelia took several lives in different ways. However, as the storm was downgraded prior to making landfall with hurricane force weather it's doubtful the NHC will retire the name. After the season is over they announce which names will be retired and Harvey, Irma and Maria will for sure be on that list.
TS Ophelia ... ULL/Wave Close In.. FIRES California and Tropical Waves
Again Ophelia is far to the right.
Not the system closer to the Bahamas.
Ophelia is closer to Africa...
...headed towards the Azores.
But hey... we are closer to the Bahamas so..
..we be watching that Upper Level Low spin.
Hard not to watch it.
Some thoughts below.
Always good thoughts.
Weather.. strong weather.
Dirty side of the ULL usually is dirty
(messy)
Tropical Storm Ophelia is spinning, slowly intensifying out over the distant Atlantic closer to Africa than the system not forecast to develop East of the Bahamas. That's called "foreshadowing" in creative writing... just so you know. Keeping this short this morning because I'm on the road and not much to say. It's hard not to notice it....
Ophelia is still forecast to become a hurricane and it will make an impact on Europe in the not so distant future. If Ophelia becomes a hurricane it will continue the hurricane streak we got going this year that is breaking all records.
Note from the NHC discussion above.
And see where Ophelia goes eventually below...
Coming back to our side of the world
There's also a tropical wave...
..messing with PR again sadly.
There is a system East of Florida that is mostly an ULL with a great deal of convection trying to wrap itself inside of it... however.....there is strong shear in the area keeping it a wet nuisance for now. So keep it in mind as shear often comes and goes and there is always the possibility that after it travels across Florida it can get into a friendlier environment in the Gulf of Mexico. I'm just putting it out there as a "random possibility" as models have been hinting and when I say models I mean a few of the EURO ensemble members have brought this suggestion up in their morning board meeting. Stay tuned. Never turn your back on any area of convection that persists and spins this particular hurricane season.
The real "weather" story today has turned from the tropics to the fires in California. Go figure right? The tropics suddenly give us a break and fire breaks out in California and Santa Ana winds feed the flames... whipping them up wildly. You have to understand the Santa Ana winds are close to tropical storm force and they take flames and scatter them about faster than I can type... and I type fast. Add into the mix the chaparral that covers the mountainside is a plant with a very high oil content that tends to explode the moment a spark lands on it and it literally becomes a burning bush that explodes and strong winds take those embers miles away landing onto another bush that explodes. It's a recipe for disaster in a dry summer and they have had a dry summer. We are talking about small neighborhoods close in not out in the canyons somewhere but populated areas. A Hilton Hotel burned down as well as many large civic buildings as well as homes, stores and the death toll is climbing as I type this...
So ... keep giving the American Red Cross because America seems to be under siege this year from Mother Nature who seems hellbent to cause misery and disaster everywhere.
I'm on the road Southbound staying in Northeast Florida enjoying the sun on the water and the waves .... and the sunrise and basically I am in beach heaven this morning. It's a nice way to start the day watching the sunrise over the ocean. And then we hit the road again.... Southbound.
I'll update later today if anything pops up but it may take a while. The fastest way to get updates is to use Twitter and add me as I update in real time when something is going on...
Be well, be happy and be safe.
Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter
Ps Check out Mike on Facebook Live as I'm sure he's talking about that Bahama ULL as well as whatever comes into Mike's mind ;)
Location: Miami, Raleigh, Crown Heights, Florida, United States
Weather Historian. Studied meteorology and geography at FIU. Been quoted in Wall Street Journal, Washington Post & everywhere else... Lecturer, stormchaser, writer, dancer. If it's tropical it's topical ... covering the weather & musing on life. Follow me on Twitter @ https://twitter.com/#!/BobbiStorm