Subtropical Storm Rebekah in N Atlantic - Fires in California - Power Company Turns Power Off - Rain in the SE. Hot Water in the Caribbean As We Move Into November

Subtropical storm #Rebekah has formed over the north Atlantic ocean. It will become a non-tropical system in 24-36 hours as it heads toward the Azores. #scwx #ncwx pic.twitter.com/HFGXRemnBU

— Ed Piotrowski (@EdPiotrowski) October 30, 2019

A press release with info was sent out.... the NHC site had this info below. And I expected the NHC went ahead and upgraded 99L to Rebekah because well .... that's what they do in 2019. I'm sure I'll give my thoughts on this later at some point but for now I'm sharing the data and the information and that's the way it goes today. Next name up Sebastien...

NHC will initiate advisories on Subtropical Storm Rebekah, located over the northern Atlantic at 5pm 

While waiting for the advisory to come out I just wanted to point out President Reagan's Library in Simi Valley is in danger from the fire there being whipped by hurricane force "Devil Winds" known also as Santa Ana Winds. I know that area well as it's just North of where my Ex-husband's family home was and we'd drive up there on Sunday's for a nice ride out in the country. For Baby Boomers that grew up watching old Westerns it's where many a Western Shoot Out was filmed. Beautiful area that became filled with a suburban paradise that oozed past the San Fernando Valley when they ran out of room there. A beautiful part of the world... but not today.

@Sandman7591 serious questions on this need to be addressed. #wildfires pic.twitter.com/JJLBRextPD

— BobbiStorm (@BobbiStorm) October 30, 2019

Turn the sound up if you want to hear my thoughts while watching the broadcast, very crazy...
I did a video earlier talking while watching the coverage online live of the fire. As someone who has asthma (mild) whose kids had asthma that often wasn't mild and that used a Nebulizer to keep them out of the hospital and manage their asthma ...especially when there was a fire out in the Everglades and the smell of smoke spread East over Miami making kids with asthma extremely sick. The thought that I would have 3 options... 1) grab my kid and leave town 2) go to the hospital and sit in the waiting room to be safe or 3) take my chances without any power because the Power company cut the power is intolerable to think on yet to have to deal with as many are today. Many use machines to breathe or help them for various medical conditions and this cutting the grid off doesn't seem right. Fire Season in California happens every year, some years worse than others... there should be a better plan. It's like not preparing for Hurricane Season in South Florida and to be fair someone in California gets a fire every year yet Florida can go for years
without a real landfall ...yet we work them into our overall way of life.

Something seriously wrong with this situation....

Simi Valley used to be and still is in some part Horse Country and I do so love horses.

Incredible video of a horse going back to rescue two more horses from the fire caught by @CBSLA @joybenedict and her crew. You'll see this and more on the @CBSEveningNews with @NorahODonnell tonight and continuing on @CBSLA and @CBSNLive pic.twitter.com/2reAZhunDe

— George Whipple Jr. (@gwhipp) October 30, 2019

I may update later tonight on the fires.

It's very weather related as it's the WINDS...

...the hurricane force, dry winds creating this situaion.

It's Fire Season in California.

Been there... unless you have felt that dry wind.

You can't imagine.

I walked down the street one day and watched..

...flowers folding over and dying in real time.

As if a Fire Breathing Dragon in the Sky..

...was blowing down on West Hollywood.

And there was a fire two blocks away.

Up near the foothills of the mountains.

The fire was put out...

...not everyone's fire was put ou.

It was a bad Fire Season that year in the 1980s.

#99L far out in the N Atlantic 50/50 chances of designation. Gulf of Mexico moisture free flowing up into the front. #WednesdayThoughts on the #weather in the tropics. https://t.co/vZ3Rogvgxa new #blog out now pic.twitter.com/FRKbfS2ru6

— BobbiStorm (@BobbiStorm) October 30, 2019

To be clear we are looking at the small center here.

Inside the larger huge cloud swirl.

It's all about the center.

Is this tropical?

No.

Is it subtropical?

Ish...

The pattern of these huge swirls.

And I use that term because..

..basically that's what they are.

The atmosphere swirls....

...it dances.

It moves in tandem with other swirls.

Other fronts and it flows.

Is this something to be named?

Only the NHC makes that call.

Currently it's at 50% as in "any minute"

It may be raised to 70%

Or it could get a name briefly.

We've seen this often this year.

Hurricane Season almost over.

Azore systems often get named.

At the discretion of the current regime at NHC

And they have been hot to trot with names.

Here's our wide view.

There is much more energy in our front over the SE.

Or moving over the SE.

Love the dotted line across the Atlantic.

It delineates the North Atlantic with the MDR.

Down below we have a parade of tropical waves.

West to East or trying.

I suppose because no one told them they couldn't.

In Raleigh it's raining this morning.

And I'm kind of loving it.

To be honest.

The constant pitter patter of raindrops.

It's been a while since we heard that.

A gentle reminder that there is still time...

...for a Caribbean system to form.

Gulf of Mexico or Home Grown.

Just because it's snowing in Colorado...

..doesn't mean it's not hot in the tropics.

In the 90s in Florida often.

Water in the Caribbean very hot.

Hot = favorable conditions.

So far we've been lucky.

As they say.

Nothing to track in this area.

But those are mighty strong rain cells.

Coming into the regular towns.

That often get tropical weather.

It's tropical.... 

But it's not organized.

Just rain.

Older map image but you get the idea.

Of how we got here.

Big news story today.

California could use some rain.

To quench the fires and

... let the power go back on.

I cannot imagine having my power turned off.

I had kids who used nebulizers for asthma.

When there is smoke in the air...

...asthma and bronchitis is a big issue.

https://apnews.com/91e853cb78654387becd90e1bf6bb486

You'd think they could think of another way.

As maintain the grid or the system.

Have thought of how to do this better...

.... and restore power to people who need.

Mind boggling.

Yeah California.

Lived there.

Earthquakes, Mudslides and Fires.

Pick your poison.

Everywhere has something.

Mother Nature finds a way.

And that's it.

I'll update if the NHC does.

Have a wonderful day!

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram.

Thanksgiving Day Forecast.... Frigid Temperatures for the Macy's Day Parade... Starbucks Latte VS Frappe Unless You Live in Florida - Winter Make Up :)

That's today.
November 20th, 2018.
The year winter came early.

As for the Macy's Parade...
Bundle Up!

Seriously hope Ronald McDonald has a scarf!

An overcoat maybe?

Hat? Gloves?

This is the 3 day loop.

It is THE forecast.

Short term, reliable.

Note the progression of cold fronts.

Rain in the Gulf of Mexico and Florida.

Snow in the Northeast 

Below Freezing Temperatures Along East Coast.

And look at those Isobars on the last day..

Arctic Air Being Funneled Down.

Say it Ain't So....

Christmas Weather for Thanksgiving?

A sign of the times....

Mike put the Weather Links back up..

www.spaghettimodels.com

It's about time...

What with Winter Storm Avery knocking out NYC.

Mike still has the NHC Main Page up.

Just in case.......

But he's added in the snow forecast maps.

These are great maps.

Easy to find...

... Easy to use.

Up on the Spaghetti Models.

You know it's Winter when Kylie puts out new palettes!

This girl has brains.

She knows weather sells.

Women love weather...

Yes we will ALL be Chillin on Thanksgiving!

Snowflakes on the lipsticks.

Winter colors for the eyes... 

Black Friday specials!

And winter maps galore on Twitter.

So here are some maps and thoughts.

Allan from Brooklyn likes to make maps.

They are good maps.

This is the possible WIND CHILLS

That's hard to believe.

Then again it was hard to believe .....

.....NYC would get so much snow.

And it did.

I wouldn't count it out.

Here's a link to current wind chills.

It may come in handy.

http://hp2.wright-weather.com/icons/us_chill.gif

Accuweather....

The Weather Channel .... 

You get the idea.

Without the wind chills it's cold.

Below Freezing, well below freezing.

Talking mittens, gloves, hat, scarf ... stay home inside?

Stay home sipping hot chocolate under a cover ;)

The Parade is on TV you know :)

I spent my lifetime watching it on TV.

You'll survive I promise..

21 degrees for Thursday.

Oh wait that was yesterday's forecast.

Look below.... now it's down to 19 degrees!!!

Check out Thursday's Low above. 19 degrees

Ya...that's winter weather not fall temperatures.

Sometimes you have to throw out the rule book and deal with what is and not what should be. It's like when a hurricane forms in June or a strong Tropical Storm pops up in May... you can't say "hey it's not Hurricane Season yet" you have to get supplies, make a plan and watch Cantore in the surf on TWC until your power goes out. In NYC and NJ the powers that be erred on the side of "it's not winter yet" and we saw what a mess Winter Storm Avery made. In Maryland where they were treating the roads and being "all melodramatic" they were better prepared to deal with the snow. As my Daddy used to tell me "you gotta do what you gotta do" and that means treating this storm and the cold weather that follows it as if winter is here and the calendar is irrelevant. If we get a December thaw "nice" but if not ... button up your overcoat and do what you got to do. 

If you are traveling by car make sure you have blankets, extra food and drinks with you as the walk into the service plaza or Truck Stop will make you feel like one of Santa's Elves. If you're flying, hope you don't get stuck anywhere. If you and your loved ones have asthma or any health problem make sure you bring along your medication. It's easy to say "let's hope these forecasts" are "melodramatic" but I'd err on the side of caution, hope for the best and prepare for the worst. By the way... the worst will come AFTER Thanksgiving if the long term models are correct and they are currently in good agreement! And, what concerns me is how cold the ground gets, how much it warms up when the temperatures moderate before the next polar blast comes through. I'll deal with long term models tomorrow or Thursday. 

Sadly another thing I want to mention today is......... the smoke from the fires is caught up in the atmosphere and the horrible possibility of rain in California that would immediately create mudslides. I lived there ... they go hand in hand. First comes fire then comes rain and there is nothing to hold back the ground and it slides down the hill. There are many, many people missing and many more will be declared dead as the death toll rises daily. If you think hurricanes are bad... generally I'd take a hurricane any day than a hillside that goes up in flames and then what's left slides down to the valley below.  So perhaps while giving thanks for all you have this year... pray ... and give some charity. I know I am and many of my friends have been doing so. 

I'm not sure what I'm actually doing on Thanksgiving yet. The family isn't meeting anywhere, it's one of those years with three new babies the different couples are fending for themselves and my brother is doing something (not sure what) and my husband and I may go see my mother-in-law . . . up in Maryland in her Rest Home...or we may stay home and eat good food, watch football and buy presents for Chanukah which comes early this year the same way winter is coming early. Road trips are always good; maybe I'll take in a movie . . .

I may make Turkey Benedict for breakfast the way I did last year in Miami for the kids as we were going to Abeulita's house to be with my daughter-in-law's family. She had the baby, it's a girl named Lucy :) and I need to buy more clothes for Miss Lucy so that's my life. I may use fake hollandaise sauce or fake turkey... it came out really good last year. Or... we'll figure it out. North Carolina isn't going to be that cold, but it will be cold with a low somewhere around 25. Maybe I'll stay home by the Fake Fireplace and order presents online. Whatever you do ... do it with a smile, your favorite music and I hope your favorite team wins!

Maybe I'll make pumpkin flan...

..my husband's a Yankee. 

He likes apple pie and chocolate cream.

Where I come from that's kind of un American...

(teasing....)

And worst of all he prefers walnuts to pecans :(

I want pumpkin pie. 

Real pumpkin pie.

Recipe for the flan below.. 

No pumpkin seeds tho...

That's just so wrong.

Caramel or cinnamon always!

https://www.epicurious.com/recipes/food/views/pumpkin-flan-with-spiced-pumpkin-seeds-233017

Pumpkin Rice Pudding?

Hmnnn

Maybe just have pizza and make Turkey Friday Night?

Time will tell....

Stay warm.

Dress accordingly.

And again... on Black Friday buy winter clothes.

Boots... overcoats and maybe a hat and gloves!

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter

Ps... wondering if Menchies is open on Thanksgiving...

Orange Area in the Atlantic 40% Moves Close to Bahamas Later in the Week - Tropics November. Fires Califnoria. El Nino Winning...

This will be a short post as I'm up north in Upstate New York where it snowed briefly today. Not very tropical like... but the Hurricane Season lasts until November 30th so we are still watching the tropics. The NHC has designated an area to be watched for possible development and it is not yet an Invest. So we watch it and it's worth remembering that as fronts are on the move a front is expected to catch this system before it makes landfall. However some effects could be felt if it develops and moves West, especially in the Bahamas and possibly later something for Bermuda to pay attention to...

This is the position of the Low pressure area.

Not the weak stalled out front.

Note more fronts moving South.

It's that time of year.

This is a long range map for this coming week.

At some point tomorrow (Sunday) I'll update the blog and we are all watching the models. But for now it's just an area that can develop and it's within the frame work of past storms that have formed in November. Many form, most are swept out to sea.

Again as I said on Thursday Night with El Nino in play and the current weather pattern we are having Fire Storms in California that are typical during such patterns but this particular fire is devastating and if Fires were rated the way hurricanes would be this would be a Major Hurricane. I lived in LA in the 80s and drove along fires on the side of the highway where the warmth could be felt the fire lit up the sky. Friends lost homes and there was little warning or a chance to prepare the way we do in hurricanes. They are horrible. It may be "fun" and exciting to watch "fire tornadoes" on social media but they are destructive, horrific and something from the devil. Pray for those people and pray they get the fires under control.

Lastly, I complained on the blog on Thursday about the ongoing mess in parts of South Florida especially Broward County though there are problems in other towns within the general region. Let me explain why this bothers me so much. 

One year I walked over to a polling place near my house on Miami Beach and presented by voter card, told them my name and waited for the really sweet gray haired lady to find my ballot so I could vote. It's awesome people give their time to do this, actually my mother did for a while. It was Early Voting and I wanted to get the voting out of the way as I was expecting a baby any day. I sign for the ballot to vote and realized she gave me my brother's ballot. My brother was out of the country and probably would have voted in that election differently from me.. he may have done so absentee. I told her that was my brother, he had a guys name I have a girl's name and I was 9 months pregnant. She asked me .."are you sure?"  Um, yeah... I was sure. The baby kicked as if annoyed as if to say "let's get this show on the road" so she spent a good ten minutes checking with someone and found my ballot. Mind you if I was the devious type I could have taken my brother's ballot, voted for whoever I wanted to be President and then gone down to the other nearby Early Voting location and voted again using my name. No one would have known the difference. The reality that happened was to be bizarre but as I was leaving a guy walked over to me and quietly said "she gave me my father's ballot" which really surprised me. He said..."his father had been dead for 4 years" but apparently no one notified the bureau of elections. I said naively, "wow what did you do?"   He smiled kind of jerky like and said "Oh I voted for my father... figured he'd be happy he still got a vote" and walked away laughing.  No words. Really no words. 

The  next election I was voting in Aventura... I was voting for Kerry to be honest and waiting in line as some man came at me with a sign for the other candidate and asked me if I was voting for Bush I believe... I said "not really" and he got angry and started yelling me in Spanish as I suppose I look Spanish?? and he spoke Spanish and I walked slowly away and he followed me way onto the area where they are not allowed to do that. I mentioned it inside, they said "he had been warned but they don't want to start up with him" and told me they had a problem with another guy pushing people to vote for Kerry. ... It was a zoo, people were afraid to walk into the polling place. When I asked as I was leaving if there was a receipt or something I was told that after the "hanging chad" problem they fixed it so that they can't do a recount and they don't give receipts. Understand you can't walk out of Walmart without showing a receipt but there was no way I could get a receipt and there was no way to recheck the ballots. Seriously? 

Then the next election there were voting inconsistencies in Broward and after much discussion they insisted they would fix the problem and find new ways to make voting easier, faster, safer and get results in a timely fashion. A good 10 years or so down the line we are still dealing with the same problems. That's just wrong. It's not about being a blue voter or a red voter.. it's about the security of each person's vote and those votes being registered in a timely way so as not to make people feel that one party or the other or one candidate or one person is trying to "throw an election" or perhaps just laziness.

My issue is not with Broward County who by the way has one of the better Library Systems in the State but with whoever runs the election process. Broward County is beautiful, it's people are wonderful as people in Miami and Palm Beach but there is an ongoing pattern of having problems and other big cities across the US have far less problems. I hope it's resolved and fixed. It's not about the beaches or the people who live there it's about the people who are put in place to preserve the integrity of our votes. 

So maybe that clears up my thought process. Not sure if the guy went and voted for himself at another polling place or just figured he's let his Dead Dad get a chance to vote. No words. 

I've lived in LA, NYC, Carolina, Minnesota and voted in those places and of course the Miami area and the only place where there has been consistently a problem is in the South Florida area and often Broward "finds ballot bags" or boxes which really is against the laws in place. Perhaps the people need to vote again and they need to hold the results and they need to try and watch the voting process there to get it right this time and in the future. And 12 sides of ballots mostly on referendums is crazy. I lived in NYC and had less pages on my ballot than the most recent ballot in Broward County. Makes for long lines in the hot sun waiting to get in and vote for the person you wish to have as Governor or Senator be a long, exhausting process. I spoke to a few people who told me they had to go home and feed their kids and it was impossible to even finish voting. In 2018 we need to get that better so everyone's vote counts.

So it's an issue that particularly bugs me as if something isn't broken it shouldn't be fixed but if something is broken it needs to be fixed. 

Thanks for reading.

If you live in Florida it doesn't hurt to keep your eyes on the area just in case but most likely you are praying for a cold front. I'll be back in Carolina later this week but the weather will follow me there. Miami will be a welcome burst of warm weather next time I'm in town. I vote in Raleigh these days. 

Sorry for any typos.

My daughter lives out in the country.

Service is weak and I have to sit on one spot on the sofa..

All the way to the left and not move or I lose service :)

Besos Bobbistorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter

TS Ophelia ... ULL/Wave Close In.. FIRES California and Tropical Waves

Again Ophelia is far to the right.

Not the system closer to the Bahamas.

Ophelia is closer to Africa...

...headed towards the Azores.

But hey... we are closer to the Bahamas so..

..we be watching that Upper Level Low spin.

Hard not to watch it.

 Some thoughts below.

Always good thoughts.

Weather.. strong weather.

Dirty side of the ULL usually is dirty

(messy)

Tropical Storm Ophelia is spinning, slowly intensifying out over the distant Atlantic closer to Africa than the system not forecast to develop East of the Bahamas. That's called "foreshadowing" in creative writing... just so you know. Keeping this short this morning because I'm on the road and not much to say. It's hard not to notice it....

Ophelia is still forecast to become a hurricane and it will make an impact on Europe in the not so distant future. If Ophelia becomes a hurricane it will continue the hurricane streak we got going this year that is breaking all records.

Note from the NHC discussion above.

And see where Ophelia goes eventually below...

Coming back to our side of the world

There's also a tropical wave...

..messing with PR again sadly.

There is a system East of Florida that is mostly an ULL with a great deal of convection trying to wrap itself inside of it... however.....there is strong shear in the area keeping it a wet nuisance for now. So keep it in mind as shear often comes and goes and  there is always the possibility that after it travels across Florida it can get into a friendlier environment in the Gulf of Mexico. I'm just putting it out there as a "random possibility" as models have been hinting and when I say models I mean a few of the EURO ensemble members have brought this suggestion up in their morning board meeting. Stay tuned. Never turn your back on any area of convection that persists and spins this particular hurricane season.

The real "weather" story today has turned from the tropics to the fires in California. Go figure right? The tropics suddenly give us a break and fire breaks out in California and Santa Ana winds feed the flames... whipping them up wildly. You have to understand the Santa Ana winds are close to tropical storm force and they take flames and scatter them about faster than I can type... and I type fast. Add into the mix the chaparral that covers the mountainside is a plant with a very high oil content that tends to explode the moment a spark lands on it and it literally becomes a burning bush that explodes and strong winds take those embers miles away landing onto another bush that explodes. It's a recipe for disaster in a dry summer and they have had a dry summer. We are talking about small neighborhoods close in not out in the canyons somewhere but populated areas.  A Hilton Hotel burned down as well as many large civic buildings as well as homes, stores and the death toll is climbing as I type this...

So ... keep giving the American Red Cross because America seems to be under siege this year from Mother Nature who seems hellbent to cause misery and disaster everywhere.

https://www.redcross.org/

I'm on the road Southbound staying in Northeast Florida enjoying the sun on the water and the waves .... and the sunrise and basically I am in beach heaven this morning. It's a nice way to start the day watching the sunrise over the ocean. And then we hit the road again.... Southbound.

I'll update later today if anything pops up but it may take a while. The fastest way to get updates is to use Twitter and add me as I update in real time when something is going on...

Be well, be happy and be safe.

Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter

Ps Check out Mike on Facebook Live as I'm sure he's talking about that Bahama ULL as well as whatever comes into Mike's mind ;)

https://www.facebook.com/mikesweatherpage/videos/10155586703467367/

Updated! 3 Dead in Gatlinburg From Firess. Prayers For Rain Across the South. Dollywood Safe. Other Resorts Burned, Homes and Lives In Danger

It's easy to see the force of the system that raced through Tennessee.

Hurricane Force Gusts whipped fires and caused devastation.

3 people have died in the fires as on 4 PM Tuesday.

Countless homes have been lost.

To post a number now belittles the true devastation.

This is a tragedy in process and far from over.

http://fox17online.com/2016/11/29/gatlinburg-fires-the-worst-is-over-officials-say/

Dollywood is closed, but safe.

http://www.wral.com/in-video-dolly-parton-warned-of-wildfire-threat/16287713/

Another system is forecast to hit the area later in the week.

The weather forecast shows the ongoing dangers.

Worth noting a man was killed in Fayetteville today doing repairs after Matthew. Another reminder that a tragedy doesn't always have a neat ending in the way a hurricane makes landfall. The misery goes on and on. Often people are killed or hurt in the clean up process. And the process goes on and on and on...

In Raleigh it rained today. A slow, steady rain.

Warm rain actually. No sweater needed in late November.

In Israel they are thanking the many who helped fight the fires.

It's awesome to see how the world's nations can work together.

Note ground help from the Palestinian Authority was included.

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter

www.redcross.org

* * * 

There's photos on Twitter.

And online but less on air as the media continues with the political.

This is a huge fire and has long term ramifications.

http://www.tennessean.com

There's a live link to coverage.

Besides Dollywood this is an area where many people vacation.

Whether is fall foliage now burned up, hiking, skiing, exploring.

Aside from the people who live there it's devastating.

It's also an area rich in forests, trees.

This will be a long term scar on the land.

http://www.wbir.com/news/local/fire-close-to-dollywood-dreammore-resort-cabins-evacuated/357499792

There has been hope that rain may mitigate the disaster yet the same system that is carrying rain is also carrying high winds that whip the fire faster. 

The tropics are on back burner today.

Keep praying for rain.

And for the fire fighters who are doing their best.

I'll update later today.

Watching the wind in Raleigh also.

Very windy, gusty and leaves are in the wind.

I've been in LA when fire is in the wind.

I can respect that power as many cannot.

Unless you are used to forest fires encroaching on homes...

...worrying on friends who live there.

You don't really know luckily what it is like.

It's a slow motion disaster.

It's not a Twister or a earthquake.

Disasters are disasters but...

...takes a while to put the fires out.

Pray.

Besos BobbiStorm

Ps... Going to be a Hard Candy Christmas for many in Tennessee.