I40 Winter Storm.... From TX/OK to NC Coast ...the Storm Does a Road Trip East Bound. Who Gets What? No One is Sure....

The players are visible on the loop above.

Note everything is East Bound....

High pressure pushing down from the North

Moisture piling in from the South.

And the Road Map is along Interstate 40.

I40 goes from NC to California.

Though in NC it's a major artery West to East.

Or East to West depending where you're going.

Takes a little dip down towards the SE to Wilmington.

This was the road of the North Carolina.

If you drove up to the mountains....

..... or you drove down to the sea.

Old timers know this road like the back of their hand.

It cuts straight across Oklahoma like a Mason Dixie Line.

Further to the North it's more like Kansas.

Further to the South it's more like Texas.

Arkansas.... Tennessee 

Then the beautiful North Carolina highlands.

The map above doesn't do the view justice but....

...it gets you where you are going.

A nice video shows you the view well ....

...way better than I can tell ya

Note the elevation...

(give it a few minutes to get going)

Love movies that show maps....

This picture shows you the story here...

Elevation!

Mountains...

The further up in elevation....

...the more chance you get of snow!

www.spaghettimodels.com

Above is a 5 day forecast for snow.

I added the 24 hour one in today.

Compare and contrast.

Note two things....

Snow accumulations aren't high further West.

But as it crosses the mountains...snow.

Snow forecast like the red spot on Jupiter over NC

But who gets exactly what?

Still hard to tell.

Evolves in real time.

Snow storms are wonderfully hard to forecast.

A Cape Verde Hurricane is way easier.

Those are some big mountains.

They could get a big snow storm.

It's also possible the big snow totals are to the East.

Winston Salem or Greensboro could get a lot.

Raleigh? Really no one is sure.

No one here ever is..

I show Raleigh as it's an iffy area.

And I live here.

Charlotte also is iffy as to the exact impact.

NWS above.

Accuweather below.

Waiting to see what will happen.

Days ago I posted this map on Twitter

What I was pointing out was the actual snow...

...and the system forming off the coast.

The low tightening up.

Few were talking on that.

DaBuh watches surf and weather.

He saw it coming and posted this today.

See it IS about the Low in the GOM.

Sitting near where Michael made landfall.

Has that been a magnet spot this year or what?

They are getting slammed with rain along the coast...

...and the winter storm to the North.

I10 gets rain.

I40 gets winter weather of some sort...

Still evolving in real time.

As the moisture in the GOM feeds the storm.

As the storm is moving East.

So many moving parts.

Showing these model pages from www.windy.com

Lot's of layers to play with there.

Saturday on the EURO...

Moisture moving in from the GOM.

Winter Weather moving in...

Over the mountains....

filling in the Foothills.

Piedmont Crescent gets a winter storm.

Yesterday's post explains the Piedmont Crescent.

Charlotte to Raleigh.

Check that post out later ..

Euro shows snow over NC.

Winter weather of various types.

Snow. Sleet. Freezing Rain maybe..

Below on  Sunday on the GFS moisture feeds in..

Snow takes a road trip on I40 East.

Snow!

Note the GFS has snow on Monday for Raleigh.

  

Much aligned GFS shown above.

See the snow over NC?

See the storm forming off the coast?

Could the snow really stop at the VA border?

Just a model..

Let's talk about the NAM.

Adding this in while editing.

Their discussion mirrors my thoughts.

And they ate two of the best especially in NC.

I'm ending this model discussion with the NAM.

Short term modeling.

Great image below.

Shows the players.

Note the moisture feed coming in from the GOM.

This is what Dabuh is watching.

Storm forming OFF the coast.

Transfer of energy.

Snow and Wintry Mix over Carolinas.

This is our end game.

How close to the coast will winter weather get?

Could Wilmington and New Bern see snow flakes?

Flurries falling?

Will this become an ICE STORM not a Snow storm?

That possibility is there for some...

TWC below....

Nice boots.

Note they say "Snow and Ice"

What is the bottom line here?

Travel will be treacherous on I40

Travel across parts of the South is a problem.

Whether you are driving from Atlanta to Charlotte..

....or Atlanta to Raleigh.

Maybe just don't.

Hunker down if you can.

Ride this out where you are...

Flights will be cancelled if you are flying..

Carefully consider your options if you are traveling.

I'm not traveling.

I'm hunkering down and waiting to see what I get.

I'll update at the top later today.

When the next models come in...

...and after we see the storm as it's evolving.

After I go shopping while I can...

Bread, Eggs, Coca Cola.

Still have water from Hurricane Season ;)

So far it slammed California with rain and mud.

Doing Texas from Amarillo to Lubbock ...

It's flirting with Oklahoma.

Stay tuned.

Winter Storms form and evolve in real time.

No real cones....

....just lots of hype and wishing.

Wishing it doesn't snow...

and wishing it snows and snows.

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter

Ps... Leaving this here. I have a friend who loves Asheville, loves snow and loves the piano.

I suppose if you watch this video you can understand why....   hoping to see some in Raleigh.

TS Rina. Tennessee Flooding. Seasons Collide as Fall... Colors My World

Okay it doesn't look like much.

But it is a named storm.

A sort of Flashback to the early part of the season.

"As it was in the beginning....

....so shall it be in the end"

It's funny people love to complain. We've got a Tropical Storm wandering up the Atlantic not threatening anyone or anything and people are complaining. "It looks stupid!" "That's a TS?" and the list goes on and on and yet towards the end of the 2017 Hurricane Season we have flipped the switch to Reset and rather than having all Tropical Storms evolve into Major Hurricanes we now have meteorologists complaining on the poor structure of Rina the way they did with Cindy. To be fair I don't think Cindy ever looked this good. Yes, convection is misplaced due to shear however the structure is there and obvious.

I doubt this will be the last time. I'm pretty confident we will have another named storm to track and worry on this year though the worrying may not be in Mississippi, Louisiana or Texas. It's just a matter of time in a busy Hurricane Season until something else sneakily pops up somewhere.

That said.... Rina is going out to sea.

Quietly. Moving the atmosphere around.

It's not just an "atmospheric river" as the TWC is wont to say... it's a whole Ocean filled with bays and eddies and eels swimming round in circles in the Sargasso Sea and the air is dipping down from Canada on one side and oozing up into the North Atlantic on the other side. Yeah, I know I'm into weather and geography; I love maps. I love weather of all kinds, even if I am a tropical girl I still love a good snow storm and yes I'd like to see a REAL ICE storm someday. I'd also like to see the Northern Lights but let's leave astronomy out of this. (That was a joke... ) The morning water vapor loop seems to be my church to misquote Marren Morris.

Can I get a Hallelujah?   

Yeah.... love the water vapor loop.

And I love weather!

Weather happens with or without hurricanes. And, it seems in 2016 Flooding happens with or without hurricanes as this morning's lead weather story was on flooding in Tennessee. You can see the strong cells that went through there in the WV Loop above that contributed to 6 inches or so of rain and the eventual flooding. 

And to the East...far away is Rina.

Spinning on the edge.

Moving towards the North Sea.

Yup. Love the black and white WV Loop.

But sometimes color is good too!

Thanks for coloring my world.

https://twitter.com/sjltx1963

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter

Ps.... 

Thanks to my "computer" I got a trip back to memory lane yesterday . . .

http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/2011/01/hurricanes-vs-ice-storms.html

Updated! 3 Dead in Gatlinburg From Firess. Prayers For Rain Across the South. Dollywood Safe. Other Resorts Burned, Homes and Lives In Danger

It's easy to see the force of the system that raced through Tennessee.

Hurricane Force Gusts whipped fires and caused devastation.

3 people have died in the fires as on 4 PM Tuesday.

Countless homes have been lost.

To post a number now belittles the true devastation.

This is a tragedy in process and far from over.

http://fox17online.com/2016/11/29/gatlinburg-fires-the-worst-is-over-officials-say/

Dollywood is closed, but safe.

http://www.wral.com/in-video-dolly-parton-warned-of-wildfire-threat/16287713/

Another system is forecast to hit the area later in the week.

The weather forecast shows the ongoing dangers.

Worth noting a man was killed in Fayetteville today doing repairs after Matthew. Another reminder that a tragedy doesn't always have a neat ending in the way a hurricane makes landfall. The misery goes on and on. Often people are killed or hurt in the clean up process. And the process goes on and on and on...

In Raleigh it rained today. A slow, steady rain.

Warm rain actually. No sweater needed in late November.

In Israel they are thanking the many who helped fight the fires.

It's awesome to see how the world's nations can work together.

Note ground help from the Palestinian Authority was included.

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter

www.redcross.org

* * * 

There's photos on Twitter.

And online but less on air as the media continues with the political.

This is a huge fire and has long term ramifications.

http://www.tennessean.com

There's a live link to coverage.

Besides Dollywood this is an area where many people vacation.

Whether is fall foliage now burned up, hiking, skiing, exploring.

Aside from the people who live there it's devastating.

It's also an area rich in forests, trees.

This will be a long term scar on the land.

http://www.wbir.com/news/local/fire-close-to-dollywood-dreammore-resort-cabins-evacuated/357499792

There has been hope that rain may mitigate the disaster yet the same system that is carrying rain is also carrying high winds that whip the fire faster. 

The tropics are on back burner today.

Keep praying for rain.

And for the fire fighters who are doing their best.

I'll update later today.

Watching the wind in Raleigh also.

Very windy, gusty and leaves are in the wind.

I've been in LA when fire is in the wind.

I can respect that power as many cannot.

Unless you are used to forest fires encroaching on homes...

...worrying on friends who live there.

You don't really know luckily what it is like.

It's a slow motion disaster.

It's not a Twister or a earthquake.

Disasters are disasters but...

...takes a while to put the fires out.

Pray.

Besos BobbiStorm

Ps... Going to be a Hard Candy Christmas for many in Tennessee.