Tropics Today AND How Do We Repair the Saffir - Simpson Scale to Make It Convey Dangers of a Hurricane Better? It's Not All About WIND... People Die from INLAND FLOODING Not Just Storm Surge and Tornadoes In Bands... Even AFTER A Hurricane Is NO Longer MAJOR or "Just a Tropical Storm"

Note the tropics are not dead...

...because Florence is gone.

High chances for another high latitude system.

Subtropical or Tropical?

We've been here before.

Down in the Caribbean watching 97L

Been watching it for a while.

There is an area that could develop.

It has low chances.

It needs to be watched until it's dead, dead and deader.

There are silent runner waves ...

Getting past the SAL.

A ULL that could work it's way down to the surface.

Convection in the Caribbean.

I'll discuss that more tomorrow.

Today the big storm in the tropics is...

The discussion on the Saffir-Simpson Scale.

The way we define hurricanes.

Cat 1 vs Major Cat 4.

Everyone is talking.

Everyone has an opinion.

The debate goes on.

Will change happen?

Or do we wait for the next Cat 1 where 38 people die.

And the dollar amount can't even be put...

...onto the damage yet?

Some voices from people I respect very much.

Note also what Rob said.

This is true... we discussed this on Twitter.

He wanted people to keep their guard up.

He is a paid service...

... he is paid for what he does.

Tho he tweets information to all.

Did the NHC going by the basic scale?

Let the ball drop in ways in conveying the danger?

They work by rules. 

They are the Government not a Private service.

They have rules and ways of doing things.

They show a cone to show where the eye is moving.

That comes up short often with Tropical Storms...

..or Category 1 Hurricanes winding down in strength

Do we find a way to fix the Saffir-Simpson Scale?

Improve it or lose it?

Make a new scale?

There have always been wind speed scales.

But a hurricane is more than just "WIND"

An incredibly useful tool to tell you how strong the wind is blowing was devised in 1811 known as the Beaufort Wind Scale. Try it sometime in a summer storm or a tropical depression... on any very windy day you can really tell how strong the wind is blowing with this scale shown below.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Beaufort_scale

Mike has this graphic all the way at the bottom left.

Good to move around his page.

So much there.

www.spaghettimodels.com

Amazingly this scale really works.

Print it out.

You can keep it with you in case power goes out...

And you can really tell general wind speed by it.

It's a great rule of thumb.

Unless you live in some odd wind tunnel area.

Trust me this scale is as good as gold.

But hard to convey to the general public.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Saffir%E2%80%93Simpson_scale

In 1971 the Saffir - Simpson Scale was came along.

It is very easy to convey.

Breaks hurricanes into 5 categories.

Seems logical doesn't it?

From Google:

The truth is they both are good. The Saffir-Simpson Scale is a general way of judging a hurricane in a media based world where they want a headline and the NHC wants to convey the strength of a hurricane and though it isn't officially said ... the idea was to show how dangerous a hurricane is vs ordinary. Obviously no hurricane is ordinary and all have dangers but it's inherently understood a Major Hurricane (Category 3 to Category 5) is a deadly, dangerous hurricane.

I wrote extensively on my blog on my belief that we need to change the way we convey the dangers of hurricanes and the NHC needs to update it's cone to show dangerous weather not just the track of the "center" where the winds are highest in the eye. It gives a poor understanding to the public who figures the worst dangers must be in the "center" that the NHC is tracking and as areas not in the center (parts of NC that were FLOODED) they feel as the intensity of the winds go down their dangers also go down and therefore don't evacuate or drive back to Wilmington from the safety of Raleigh as I met a few people who were doing when she was downgraded to a Category 1 and the NHC put out charts and discussion saying if she made landfall at all she would bounce back or slide SE along the coast as far South possibly as Charleston. I know they were trying to warn people as far South as Savannah they could be in danger but they gave people in North Carolina inland that the DANGER was less ....almost as if a flag had been lowered down to "only a Category 1" and sliding SE along the coast away from North Carolina the danger was less now. Yes, obviously being slammed by a Cat 4 would have been worse, but the extreme danger of flooding, tornadoes and river flooding was there even with a weak Cat 1 and yes the "center" drifted S into South Carolina. The forecast verified, but the true dangers were lost in the shuffle in my opinion.

This graphic is the last one Wundergound posted.

When it was a Tropical Depression.

Dumping HUGE amounts of water on NC.

8.04 TRILLION GALLONS OF WATER FELL ON NC.

Where is that conveyed in warnings?

Where is that conveyed by the Saffir-Simpson scale?

Again many areas outside the "cone" for the "center"

Were swamped by flooding.

Currently there is a storm of controversy over the use of the Saffir-Simpson scale that is not new but often discussed over and over after hurricanes that suddenly drop down in intensity before landfall are suddenly underestimated by the general public as "not as dangerous." This did not begin with Florence as Hurricane Sandy, a once stronger hurricane, was downgraded just prior to landfall much as Florence was as it approached the Carolina coast. Earlier in Sandy's track people in Florida were terrified it would make landfall in Miami as a Major Hurricane and for some time it looked as if it would be stronger. But the NY area rarely gets hurricanes at all so the fears were real but with every drop in wind speed people let their guards down. Then it was downgraded just before landfall as it was falling apart as it climbed in latitude as hurricanes often do and then the damage began on a historic, major level as it flooded communities, swamped subways, leveled trees and became a disaster that some areas along the coast 6 years later are just moving past. Many whole blocks were leveled, torn down and new subdivisions had to be rebuilt. Would people have left the Breezy Point area that was leveled by flood water and a fire at the height of the storm for safety if the emphasis on the dangers of Sandy were based on flooding damage and storm surge and less on wind especially in that part of the world? Maybe.

http://articles.latimes.com/2013/oct/29/nation/la-na-breezy-point-20131030

Not Cat 1 damage.

Again Hurricane Matthew.

A monster Major Hurricane in the Caribbean.

Weakens as it climbs North.

But the damage was Major.

So what is the answer?

Is the problem the scale?

Is the problem the media?

Is the problem at the NHC?

Who and what is the real problem?

Ignorance or denial?

Every area has it's own unique concerns. In Miami, except at the coast where flooding is a problem from storm surge, wind is a huge concern if people do not board up their homes and coconuts or roof shingles go flying in the wind shattering windows not boarded up and once the wind gets into a house it does obscene things. Wind tunneling through skyscrapers does it seem huge damage even when people were told their windows were hurricane proof. While only a Category 2 Hurricane, after being downgraded from Category 5 in the Caribbean, Wilma wiped out the power grid in the Miami area, smashed windows said to be "hurricane proof" and walloped the general South Florida area badly for "only a Category 2 Hurricane" as people complained for weeks waiting for power to come back. Some areas had Category 1 winds yet the whole power grid went out with substation problems and poorly maintained lines prior to the hurricane.

What is the answer?

I don't know.

The Saffir - Simpson Scale is a good one.

The old Beaufort Wind Scale is great.

I think the cone sucks personally.

Sorry... but 38 people died.

The cone did not convey the real dangers.

Again the main page at the NHC...

..should be split with other graphics perhaps?

They are trying so hard to add warnings.

Storm surge was added after Sandy...

The earliest arrival of winds was added.

But the media just shows the cone.

The media just talks about wind speed.

Category 2... WOW ... MAJOR CANE CAT 3

Downgraded to a Cat 1.

What is the answer?

Hope we figure it out.

38 people died at the last count.

Many injured severely.

People homeless from floods.

As I said in my blog before...

The flooding in Mitch was not when she was a Cat 5!

Mitch stalled as a Tropical Storm and people died.

This happens all the time.

We need to get better at warning the public.

That starts at the NHC.

The MEDIA is a huge part of the problem.

And I mean mainstream media.

People like Mike on Facebook spoke on this.

I wrote on it.

The newspapers and TV media needs to change.

Just my thoughts.

Here are some thoughts from online .

Showing this one again on purpose.

I love Spectrum Weather.

Sorry but I don't feel that threat was conveyed well.

With the cone showed below.

We need to find the answer.

Because it will save lives.

Any lives saved are worth it.

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter

Kinston is far inland.

Not sure if it was in the cone.

Doubt it was in the cone.

But the cone went S into South Carolina.

The flood waters inland rose....

Lumberton, Kinston so many communities.

Dillion, South Carolina.

If the audio doesn't work turn it to mute.

It's currently live.

Read the comments.

Not on the coast.

But it floods.

Far from where Florence turned S and went down to South Carolina.

Far from Wilmington NC where it made landfall.

Updated 11 AM...........Tropical Storm Gordon Forms Over South Florida and the Keys. Recon Collecting Data. Small Tropical Storms Can Ramp UP Fast... Will Models Show a Hurricane in the GOM? Long Term Models Take Florence Near the East Coast... Just off OBX. More to Come

Gordon is moving at a fast clip.

Sounds like Key Largo would get "landfall" from Gordon.

My brother's at his favorite beach.

That's a lot of surf for Dania Beach...

I guess loving weather runs in the genes.

Or is it learned?

My grandson Judah who is 6.... 

Covering the "hurricane" for me.

He's six..... 

He definitely LOVES weather ...

"Who wouldn't love this?"

Hey he remembers Irma last year...

And here we are again in a busy season.

This is why we say September Remember.

Note the Tropical Wave that blew up fast today near PR

Has more color than Florence.....

Could it influence Florence's track down the road.

But let's deal with Gordon first.

Some model support to be worried on Cat 1 Cane.

Easier to see a strong TS.

Models are very in agreement with track.

Note the North part of the track.

Worried the rains from Gordon...

...will enhance the flooding misery in that area.

Also worth noting Gordon is NE sided

Weather wise that's where the weather is..

That being said...

any closer track can affect FL AL beaches.

Watches and warnings for Gordon.

Note a Hurricane Watch just in case...

Good graphics for flooding....

....heaviest rain potential.

AGAIN IT IS CURRENTLY NOT FORECAST......

......TO BE A HURRICANE.

But it wasn't forecast to be a TS over Florida so ... 

A Hurricane Watch was hoisted to be on the safe side.

As for Florence.

So many questions.

Official cone below.

Far away moving WNW for now.

Then what?

Note discussion here below.

On one hand structure looks better.

On the other hand cloud tops have warmed.

Contradictory facts.

As they forecast would happen.

Note the map below.

Should it be towards the S part of the cone... 

That could be a problem.

If it's in the N part of the cone.

It would be more likely out to sea.

Bermuda may be in the crosshairs.

And the models disagree.

What else is new?

GFS shows a FISH storm.

As for Fish Bermuda may need to watch carefully.

Well Fishy except for Bermuda.... 

EURO shows the possibility of land interaction.

High surf off the East Coast.

And needing to be watched.

Keep watching.

More discussion later.

or 

What's on the meal plan for Florence?

Time will tell....

Stay tuned.

Keep reading if you have not done so already.

**** 

Tropical Storm Gordon.

From NHC discussion above... explaining the upgrade.

Well it seems the NHC located in West Miami decided not to wait for recon and made the call from local observations. Thanks for saving the gas, money and time as Miami on Labor Day Weekend is filled with tourists from all over the country as well as foreign tourists. It was extremely wise, honest and prudent to upgrade SEVEN to Tropical Storm Gordon. When your children in Miami WhatsApp you to tell you it's "like a hurricane" there and severe weather doesn't phase them much you know it's way more than a Potential Cyclone.

Leading with this below but know...

...Broward County is getting the weather.

They might change that.

But either way NWS is on it.

It's pretty obvious.

Local Mets do a great job as always.

Phil Ferro points out the NWS warnings.

Miami has some of the best On Air Weather People.

Banding from Tropical Storm Gordon seen below.

Up Close.

Wind Probs...

Most of Florida is in it...

South Florida

West Florida

Time will tell ...

Recon is going in to get more information.

11 AM Advisory should be interesting. 

Most of the weather is on the Northern side now...

...why they left Broward County out is beyond me.

Broward County = FLL Hollywood Hallandale

Where does it go?

Mike has that displayed well.

Nothing has really changed except...

..the door is open for a strong system at the 2nd landfall.

It is possible it could be Hurricane Gordon by then.

This loop is on www.spaghettimodels.com

http://origin.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/allfcsts_loop_ndfd.gif

As we have been saying for days.

The more time over water with a closed center.

The more chance it has to ramp up in intensity.

Even mets known to be conservative...

...are leaving the door open for a Cat 1 Hurricane.

The water is warm.

The water in the GOM is very warm.

I love this site they have great graphics.

And being in Tampa they are watching it carefully.

Will the weather wrap...

..or cover a larger area than expected?

On it's way to New Orleans.

Only the NHC can worry on the 5 day and ... 

...not the next few days.

I like the PTC category.

But sometimes they miss the forest for the trees.

To understand the politics of issuing "Tropical Storm Warnings" you need to go way back in my blog to where I rant endlessly on how Miami was dealing with hurricane force conditions, flooding and the NHC held with their "Hurricane Irene is going to Naples" but the "weather mass" went to Miami and the SE Coast of Florida. We were hammered. I had an inch of water coming in onto terrazo floors in the house. My son walked home from work through knee deep water and he was 6 feet tall then not a kid. School was kept open "because no watches or warnings up" and then the Mayor went on at Noon begging employers to allow their "workers" to go home and pick up their children and do what they needed to do. Employers said "there's no watches Irene is going to Naples" . . . Several people died, including people out walking their dog with electrical wires down that were live. I'm pretty sure the dog died too. But the NHC kept defending their forecast. Jim Cantore stood on a sunny beach on the West Coast of Florida while Miami was flooding and getting sustained winds. 

Also once warnings are posted certain rules are set up and many local officials prefer warnings not be posted, others (the better ones) prefer them as people take the wicked weather much more seriously. And, in Miami on Labor Day Weekend where people spent a fortune to go to the beach in their new Bikini and flirt with the muscular guy and dance in the clubs they are already in town and often coming from places that know nothing about tropical weather.

In 1971 Miami went through a horrible weekend of crazy tropical weather from a "tropical disturbance" that didn't officially form until it left the Miami, Broward and Palm Beach area. This is a story as old as time and if you can make a Potential Tropical Cyclone then you can warn everyone in the potential formation zone. When TWC shows up to do live shoots at the beach before moving their crew up along the path of the storm you can figure they know it's going to develop sooner rather than later. Nuff said.

As a matter of fact.........

....my Grandson Judah made a video.

He used his umbrella for a microphone.

He knows a storm when he sees one.

Florida kids know tropical weather early on.

Botton Line with Gordon for now...

Intensity forecasting is a problem.

It is a small storm and small storms are problematic.

A small storm over warm water can ramp up fast.

As we have already seen.

Now that it has a closed center...

...and is over warm water.

It may attain Hurricane status.

Size matters.

I'll go in depth on that later today.

For now TS Gordon is "small" in size.

Gusty squalls.

Florence below is consolidating.

Small intense red area inside a larger pocket.

Should the larger pocket fill up over warmer water.

We could have a real hurricane like problem.

Talking past the current five day forecast ...

Below is the wave that just rolled off of Africa.

Low chances by the NHC currently.

It's there so be aware.

Now 30% in the 5 Day

If the Euro is correct and it's been on the money so far...

Gordon is one to watch.

And there are more where it came from...

Last frame of the EURO so far today...

Stay tuned.

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter

Updating throughout the day...

Warning... 

There is a lot of hyperbole online today.

A lot of extreme solutions for Florence and Gordon.

So stick with the official sources.

But read those who have rarely failed you.

It's evolving.

Nothing is set in stone.

If you didn't read my rant on why PTC7 needed to be UPGRADED

Please read on...

...and deeper discussion on possibility of Florence serving BBQ

Maybe not a Fish Storm

http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/2018/09/tropical-storm-gordon-forms-over-south.html