Updated 11 AM...........Tropical Storm Gordon Forms Over South Florida and the Keys. Recon Collecting Data. Small Tropical Storms Can Ramp UP Fast... Will Models Show a Hurricane in the GOM? Long Term Models Take Florence Near the East Coast... Just off OBX. More to Come

Gordon is moving at a fast clip.

Sounds like Key Largo would get "landfall" from Gordon.

My brother's at his favorite beach.

That's a lot of surf for Dania Beach...

I guess loving weather runs in the genes.

Or is it learned?

My grandson Judah who is 6.... 

Covering the "hurricane" for me.

He's six..... 

He definitely LOVES weather ...

"Who wouldn't love this?"

Hey he remembers Irma last year...

And here we are again in a busy season.

This is why we say September Remember.

Note the Tropical Wave that blew up fast today near PR

Has more color than Florence.....

Could it influence Florence's track down the road.

But let's deal with Gordon first.

Some model support to be worried on Cat 1 Cane.

Easier to see a strong TS.

Models are very in agreement with track.

Note the North part of the track.

Worried the rains from Gordon...

...will enhance the flooding misery in that area.

Also worth noting Gordon is NE sided

Weather wise that's where the weather is..

That being said...

any closer track can affect FL AL beaches.

Watches and warnings for Gordon.

Note a Hurricane Watch just in case...

Good graphics for flooding....

....heaviest rain potential.

AGAIN IT IS CURRENTLY NOT FORECAST......

......TO BE A HURRICANE.

But it wasn't forecast to be a TS over Florida so ... 

A Hurricane Watch was hoisted to be on the safe side.

As for Florence.

So many questions.

Official cone below.

Far away moving WNW for now.

Then what?

Note discussion here below.

On one hand structure looks better.

On the other hand cloud tops have warmed.

Contradictory facts.

As they forecast would happen.

Note the map below.

Should it be towards the S part of the cone... 

That could be a problem.

If it's in the N part of the cone.

It would be more likely out to sea.

Bermuda may be in the crosshairs.

And the models disagree.

What else is new?

GFS shows a FISH storm.

As for Fish Bermuda may need to watch carefully.

Well Fishy except for Bermuda.... 

EURO shows the possibility of land interaction.

High surf off the East Coast.

And needing to be watched.

Keep watching.

More discussion later.

or 

What's on the meal plan for Florence?

Time will tell....

Stay tuned.

Keep reading if you have not done so already.

**** 

Tropical Storm Gordon.

From NHC discussion above... explaining the upgrade.

Well it seems the NHC located in West Miami decided not to wait for recon and made the call from local observations. Thanks for saving the gas, money and time as Miami on Labor Day Weekend is filled with tourists from all over the country as well as foreign tourists. It was extremely wise, honest and prudent to upgrade SEVEN to Tropical Storm Gordon. When your children in Miami WhatsApp you to tell you it's "like a hurricane" there and severe weather doesn't phase them much you know it's way more than a Potential Cyclone.

Leading with this below but know...

...Broward County is getting the weather.

They might change that.

But either way NWS is on it.

It's pretty obvious.

Local Mets do a great job as always.

Phil Ferro points out the NWS warnings.

Miami has some of the best On Air Weather People.

Banding from Tropical Storm Gordon seen below.

Up Close.

Wind Probs...

Most of Florida is in it...

South Florida

West Florida

Time will tell ...

Recon is going in to get more information.

11 AM Advisory should be interesting. 

Most of the weather is on the Northern side now...

...why they left Broward County out is beyond me.

Broward County = FLL Hollywood Hallandale

Where does it go?

Mike has that displayed well.

Nothing has really changed except...

..the door is open for a strong system at the 2nd landfall.

It is possible it could be Hurricane Gordon by then.

This loop is on www.spaghettimodels.com

http://origin.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/allfcsts_loop_ndfd.gif

As we have been saying for days.

The more time over water with a closed center.

The more chance it has to ramp up in intensity.

Even mets known to be conservative...

...are leaving the door open for a Cat 1 Hurricane.

The water is warm.

The water in the GOM is very warm.

I love this site they have great graphics.

And being in Tampa they are watching it carefully.

Will the weather wrap...

..or cover a larger area than expected?

On it's way to New Orleans.

Only the NHC can worry on the 5 day and ... 

...not the next few days.

I like the PTC category.

But sometimes they miss the forest for the trees.

To understand the politics of issuing "Tropical Storm Warnings" you need to go way back in my blog to where I rant endlessly on how Miami was dealing with hurricane force conditions, flooding and the NHC held with their "Hurricane Irene is going to Naples" but the "weather mass" went to Miami and the SE Coast of Florida. We were hammered. I had an inch of water coming in onto terrazo floors in the house. My son walked home from work through knee deep water and he was 6 feet tall then not a kid. School was kept open "because no watches or warnings up" and then the Mayor went on at Noon begging employers to allow their "workers" to go home and pick up their children and do what they needed to do. Employers said "there's no watches Irene is going to Naples" . . . Several people died, including people out walking their dog with electrical wires down that were live. I'm pretty sure the dog died too. But the NHC kept defending their forecast. Jim Cantore stood on a sunny beach on the West Coast of Florida while Miami was flooding and getting sustained winds. 

Also once warnings are posted certain rules are set up and many local officials prefer warnings not be posted, others (the better ones) prefer them as people take the wicked weather much more seriously. And, in Miami on Labor Day Weekend where people spent a fortune to go to the beach in their new Bikini and flirt with the muscular guy and dance in the clubs they are already in town and often coming from places that know nothing about tropical weather.

In 1971 Miami went through a horrible weekend of crazy tropical weather from a "tropical disturbance" that didn't officially form until it left the Miami, Broward and Palm Beach area. This is a story as old as time and if you can make a Potential Tropical Cyclone then you can warn everyone in the potential formation zone. When TWC shows up to do live shoots at the beach before moving their crew up along the path of the storm you can figure they know it's going to develop sooner rather than later. Nuff said.

As a matter of fact.........

....my Grandson Judah made a video.

He used his umbrella for a microphone.

He knows a storm when he sees one.

Florida kids know tropical weather early on.

Botton Line with Gordon for now...

Intensity forecasting is a problem.

It is a small storm and small storms are problematic.

A small storm over warm water can ramp up fast.

As we have already seen.

Now that it has a closed center...

...and is over warm water.

It may attain Hurricane status.

Size matters.

I'll go in depth on that later today.

For now TS Gordon is "small" in size.

Gusty squalls.

Florence below is consolidating.

Small intense red area inside a larger pocket.

Should the larger pocket fill up over warmer water.

We could have a real hurricane like problem.

Talking past the current five day forecast ...

Below is the wave that just rolled off of Africa.

Low chances by the NHC currently.

It's there so be aware.

Now 30% in the 5 Day

If the Euro is correct and it's been on the money so far...

Gordon is one to watch.

And there are more where it came from...

Last frame of the EURO so far today...

Stay tuned.

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter

Updating throughout the day...

Warning... 

There is a lot of hyperbole online today.

A lot of extreme solutions for Florence and Gordon.

So stick with the official sources.

But read those who have rarely failed you.

It's evolving.

Nothing is set in stone.

If you didn't read my rant on why PTC7 needed to be UPGRADED

Please read on...

...and deeper discussion on possibility of Florence serving BBQ

Maybe not a Fish Storm

http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/2018/09/tropical-storm-gordon-forms-over-south.html

Tornadoes South Florida. Broward County. A Day in My Social Media Life. Pictures. News When Ever You Want it in 2018

April 10th, 2018.

Yesterday the day that was...

The weather got a little wild yesterday in South Florida. Suddenly without warning and without advisories the wind began to whoosh, the sky turned extremely dark and the TV scrolled a sudden "Tornado Warning" for parts of Broward County. That means everyone on the County Line between Miami and Hollywood saw the fast developing wicked weather.

I was on the phone with my brother discussing our Passover Vacation (humor there) and he sent me the radar roll. I told him there would be tornadoes soon and I could see a hook echo forming between the "u" and the "d" in the word Ft. Lauderdale on the radar. Well it's more complicated than that as his mother-in-law recently passed away leaving them some cruise credits so he finally took his "Passover Cruise." I went to Miami to finally see the youngest grandchildren for Passover. We were comparing notes on Passover but moved on to the fast passing weather. Within seconds his TV began to scroll a Tornado Warning for his area (see above) and the adjacent area where several of my kids live.  He immediately took a picture of the lake behind his house. So I sent a message via WhatsApp to the family group warning the kids. They often have 100s of Apps but until someone in a WhatsApp tells them there's a weather event they don't know. As my oldest daughter and my youngest daughter explained to friends recently "don't need a weather app ... cause my mother..." yup they just wait for the phone to blow up from everyone posting pics on Whatsapp.

Within minutes one daughter grabbed her baby went outside and took pics. Is that a great pic or what?

The oldest son driving carpool took this picture of the line moving across South Broward County (basically North Miami these days as most of Miami Dade County just oozed North across the County line much like the tornado.) Looks like a May Monsoon but no it was the line that spawned the tornado. 

Then the Aventura son who just became a father grabbed his camera and sent this picture with the tag (the wind is pushing his car) as he was driving back from Broward near the tornado. His wife and sister told him "not to say that" which I suppose is a good method of dealing with stress. He then began sending pictures from the Wizard of Oz and making jokes. He knows his weather at least....

(not my child above...)

Yup, that's how yesterday played out in South Florida with tornado warnings popping up on the TV screen and Whatsapp Gone Wild and confirmation this morning of 2 relatively small tornadoes touching down briefly yesterday. One Twister was literally at FLL airport which is actually in Hollywood Florida where my kids now live but what is in a name? A relatively small tornado being relative to where you are when you are taking the video of the air moving in circles in your nice little gated community. Since moving back to Miami my older son has now had a hurricane and a tornado hover over his house. Great video but he's very private so not posting the video of the street on which he lives. My grandson is cute but no pics as that daughter is very private. Notice a trend here? Weather pictures always allowed on social media. Young kids use social media wisely. Baby Boomers just keep posting crap on Facebook thinking "no one will see it but my chosen friends" because they don't understand the screen shot is forever. Nothing personal to Baby Boomers but they can be a bit naive. They must have drunk the Kool Aid on "peace love and happiness" a bit too much to understand the real world the way Millenials do. I was raised in the 80s in LA personally. I know that because a Facebook Quiz told me so. And, you know what? In a way it's true as I really did "grow up" while living in LA in the 1980s. It's odd when LA seems more sane than life in Miami in the fast lane. 

I'm "home" in Raleigh packing for Seattle where I will be for a week because according to my smart grandson in Seattle his father "guilted me into it" (love that kid) and no he did not "guilt me into it" I love being in Seattle with him and his family. I love it beyond words. I just do not love packing again (it's wintry there the summer suitcase for Miami won't work) and I just put the house back together after getting back from Florida. I get home after the Mercury Retrograde ends (but who is counting besides Fishing and Me?) and then I have some time to relax before the holiday of Shavous and obsessing over the soon to come Hurricane Season. 

As I said yesterday in the blog.... When you have cold fronts pushing down across Florida where they hang out waiting for the next impulse in the Gulf of Mexico to slide through you get that much closer to the Hurricane Season. Before the Hurricane Season is the May Monsoon if you are really keeping track here. It's been dry in South Florida they could use rain. I asked my brother what if it's a "Dry May" (seen collectively as a possible problem come Hurricane Season) and he said "you cry in September" as it then depends on where and when that large huge Bermuda High sets up in relation to Florida.

Have a great day. Note it was on the news too. Some people (Baby Boomers posting cat pics and ranting on Facebook) still watch the news. If they went on Snapchat they'd know Rachel took the baby down to the pool, Shayna went out somewhere and is tired as... and my son is finishing his thesis at FIU on Architecture and enjoying life with his classmates while they are all still together before they have to use social media to stay in touch. 

That's the theme here. Staying in touch with social media. Through life events be they weather related or not it's the way of our world these days. I'm changing planes in Chicago because back when I made the ticket I figured winter would be gone by April 11th. Haha silly Miami girl... Everyone keep good thoughts please. I want to fall asleep in Seattle early tomorrow morning. Bought this book for my trip. Aside from the cover .... it had me at the first paragraph. A friend passes on after leading an incredible life doing what he loved most. Not a bad life, plus he shared what he was learning with others. It's all about sharing...

Much love.

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter

Time is slip sliding away.

One day I'm going to write a book called either "Me and Fishing" or "Playing with Peter" or "Living a Stormy Life" or....   gotta pack. Yes I bought a book because I'm old school and love turning the pages and the feel of the paper.