Hurricane Harbor: Updated 11 AM...........Tropical Storm Gordon Forms Over South Florida and the Keys. Recon Collecting Data. Small Tropical Storms Can Ramp UP Fast... Will Models Show a Hurricane in the GOM? Long Term Models Take Florence Near the East Coast... Just off OBX. More to Come

Gordon is moving at a fast clip.

Sounds like Key Largo would get "landfall" from Gordon.

My brother's at his favorite beach.

That's a lot of surf for Dania Beach...

I guess loving weather runs in the genes.

Or is it learned?

My grandson Judah who is 6....

Covering the "hurricane" for me.

He's six.....

He definitely LOVES weather ...

"Who wouldn't love this?"

Hey he remembers Irma last year...

And here we are again in a busy season.

This is why we say September Remember.

Note the Tropical Wave that blew up fast today near PR

Has more color than Florence.....

Could it influence Florence's track down the road.

But let's deal with Gordon first.

Some model support to be worried on Cat 1 Cane.

Easier to see a strong TS.

Models are very in agreement with track.

Note the North part of the track.

Worried the rains from Gordon...

...will enhance the flooding misery in that area.

Also worth noting Gordon is NE sided

Weather wise that's where the weather is..

That being said...

any closer track can affect FL AL beaches.

Watches and warnings for Gordon.

Note a Hurricane Watch just in case...

Good graphics for flooding....

....heaviest rain potential.

AGAIN IT IS CURRENTLY NOT FORECAST......

......TO BE A HURRICANE.

But it wasn't forecast to be a TS over Florida so ...

A Hurricane Watch was hoisted to be on the safe side.

As for Florence.

So many questions.

Official cone below.

Far away moving WNW for now.

Then what?

Note discussion here below.

On one hand structure looks better.

On the other hand cloud tops have warmed.

Contradictory facts.

As they forecast would happen.

Note the map below.

Should it be towards the S part of the cone...

That could be a problem.

If it's in the N part of the cone.

It would be more likely out to sea.

Bermuda may be in the crosshairs.

And the models disagree.

What else is new?

GFS shows a FISH storm.

As for Fish Bermuda may need to watch carefully.

Well Fishy except for Bermuda....

EURO shows the possibility of land interaction.

High surf off the East Coast.

And needing to be watched.

Keep watching.

More discussion later.

What's on the meal plan for Florence?

Time will tell....

Stay tuned.

Keep reading if you have not done so already.

****

Tropical Storm Gordon.

From NHC discussion above... explaining the upgrade.

Well it seems the NHC located in West Miami decided not to wait for recon and made the call from local observations. Thanks for saving the gas, money and time as Miami on Labor Day Weekend is filled with tourists from all over the country as well as foreign tourists. It was extremely wise, honest and prudent to upgrade SEVEN to Tropical Storm Gordon. When your children in Miami WhatsApp you to tell you it's "like a hurricane" there and severe weather doesn't phase them much you know it's way more than a Potential Cyclone.

Leading with this below but know...

...Broward County is getting the weather.

They might change that.

But either way NWS is on it.

It's pretty obvious.

Local Mets do a great job as always.

Phil Ferro points out the NWS warnings.

Miami has some of the best On Air Weather People.

Banding from Tropical Storm Gordon seen below.

Up Close.

Wind Probs...

Most of Florida is in it...

South Florida

West Florida

Time will tell ...

Recon is going in to get more information.

11 AM Advisory should be interesting.

Most of the weather is on the Northern side now...

...why they left Broward County out is beyond me.

Broward County = FLL Hollywood Hallandale

Where does it go?

Mike has that displayed well.

Nothing has really changed except...

..the door is open for a strong system at the 2nd landfall.

It is possible it could be Hurricane Gordon by then.

This loop is on www.spaghettimodels.com

http://origin.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/allfcsts_loop_ndfd.gif

As we have been saying for days.

The more time over water with a closed center.

The more chance it has to ramp up in intensity.

Even mets known to be conservative...

...are leaving the door open for a Cat 1 Hurricane.

The water is warm.

The water in the GOM is very warm.

I love this site they have great graphics.

And being in Tampa they are watching it carefully.

Will the weather wrap...

..or cover a larger area than expected?

On it's way to New Orleans.

Only the NHC can worry on the 5 day and ...

...not the next few days.

I like the PTC category.

But sometimes they miss the forest for the trees.

To understand the politics of issuing "Tropical Storm Warnings" you need to go way back in my blog to where I rant endlessly on how Miami was dealing with hurricane force conditions, flooding and the NHC held with their "Hurricane Irene is going to Naples" but the "weather mass" went to Miami and the SE Coast of Florida. We were hammered. I had an inch of water coming in onto terrazo floors in the house. My son walked home from work through knee deep water and he was 6 feet tall then not a kid. School was kept open "because no watches or warnings up" and then the Mayor went on at Noon begging employers to allow their "workers" to go home and pick up their children and do what they needed to do. Employers said "there's no watches Irene is going to Naples" . . . Several people died, including people out walking their dog with electrical wires down that were live. I'm pretty sure the dog died too. But the NHC kept defending their forecast. Jim Cantore stood on a sunny beach on the West Coast of Florida while Miami was flooding and getting sustained winds.

Also once warnings are posted certain rules are set up and many local officials prefer warnings not be posted, others (the better ones) prefer them as people take the wicked weather much more seriously. And, in Miami on Labor Day Weekend where people spent a fortune to go to the beach in their new Bikini and flirt with the muscular guy and dance in the clubs they are already in town and often coming from places that know nothing about tropical weather.

In 1971 Miami went through a horrible weekend of crazy tropical weather from a "tropical disturbance" that didn't officially form until it left the Miami, Broward and Palm Beach area. This is a story as old as time and if you can make a Potential Tropical Cyclone then you can warn everyone in the potential formation zone. When TWC shows up to do live shoots at the beach before moving their crew up along the path of the storm you can figure they know it's going to develop sooner rather than later. Nuff said.