Updated! Yellow X over Africa in the 2 Day, Yellow Circle Near Africa in E ATL in 5 Day. Tropics Come Alive in Late August As Per Climo.

Thursday Morning Update.

Grid below tells the story for today.

This is the main story.

A less strong Lane moving towards Hawaii.

Rain from Lane will be the big story.

Rain and possibly flooding.

Also Lane is moving slow now.

So there will be a prolonged period of heavy rain.

Hawaii is not as used to rain as say Miami.

Both tropical cities but different in many ways.

Main point to remember about Lane.

It is NOT Hurricane Maria.

It is not going to slam Hawaii like PR.

It is going to make an impact.

Hawaii is much like Key West in ways.

If the stores sell out of supplies.

It takes a long time to resupply the stores.

It is an Island in the ocean.

That is why they are pressing people to stock up.

Even without a huge hit ...

...supplies of necessities will be limited for a while.

I'm going to keep this fairly simple this morning. The wave that has yet to exit off of Africa is a long term, long range threat nothing that is going to develop immediately. That said it may not develop at all but we are watching it and it's a good reminder that September is around the corner and better to shop now for basics you need in case of a hurricane than a day or two before. Looking at the images above you see the story, looking up close tells the story with more definition. Note the slow movement between forecast points in the image directly above showing the prolonged period of heavy, tropical rains areas of Hawaii will feel even while Lane is slowly decreasing in actual wind intensity. Luckily Lane is weakening and should be spared a total direct hit but any large slow moving hurricane needs to be watched carefully that has huge amounts of weather as did Hurricane Matthew that had problems pulling away and turning as fast as the NHC originally forecast it would and it did make landfall in South Carolina. The huge amount of rain it carried with it a long ways spread out over the Carolinas once again flooding out the same regions that Hurricane Floyd swamped with rain. Different geography there as coastal Carolinas is a mix of marsh, swamp and river flood basins. Hawaii has mountains, hills and areas where the water can race down the hillside taking out major roads needed to resupply local stores. Something to think on...

At the most they will expect strong Tropical Storm force conditions.

Wet, strong Tropical Storm with huge rain totals.

A gusts to hurricane force possible.

As for the Wave near Africa.

Chances are down to 10%

Why? 

1 models likes it.

The other model does not like it.

GFS pulled it's support.

Euro hung with it.

It's a long term wait and see what happens.

One possible scenario is shown below.

www.crownweather.com

They are a pay per service and they are good.

They also Tweet often so you can get good info there.

One train of thought is the wave develops closer in...

...down the tropical road.

Some models suggest goes W gets into GOM

Other models suggest it moves up along the E Coast.

Keep watching.

Sadly some of the sites we use are still down :(

Notice the red print at the top of the image above.

They are working on it.

Getting most back online.

Stay tuned I'll update later in the day with more information.

Until then.

We do what we got to do.

Gone but not forgotten........

I'll admit I love that they upgraded the satellites yet they pulled the old ones that worked always and forever without ever a problem and now the new satellites do not work as well and when they go down you are stuck with broken links and half usable loops that make your eyes blurry and well it's annoying. I liked the old WV satellite loops. I want them back. It's not happening. It will never be the same I know, it' changes and things evolve and you got to get with the program but you got to fix what's broken.  As for me I'm high on weather and satellite loops and talking about weather with my friends and I'm trying not to be negative so going to go out and get some fresh air. I'm going to turn the music up and dance and get exercise and happy and I'll be back later.......  later gator.

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter

Wednesday Blog if you haven't read it.
Keep reading.
Or heck read it anyway :)

First we have a yellow x in the 2 Day Forecast.

The X is over Africa as the wave has not yet come off.

The 2 day above.

The five day has a yellow circle where something could form.

Low chances now so we will wait and see.

But it's the first time in a while we see...

...an X or circle over by Africa.

You can see the wave train I spoke about earlier today.

There is a sense of a spin there currently.

T

The satellite sites were having problems earlier today.

They are up but not 100% ready for prime time.

At least they are up and working.

Some things to think on.

Note the comment about the outage I mentioned today.

On Mike's www.spaghettimodels.com you can scroll down.

Hurricane Lane is at the top, keep scrolling down.

Areas highlighted that the NHC has put in yellow.

I also want to show you the SAL view.

Stretched thin.

Apparently SAL has to go back to school in September.

No more summer vacation in the East Atlantic.

Kind of on it's last legs, finally.

There have been many long range models, very long range models, that show something developing in this region and being a player down the road. Nothing WOW yet but something to make you raise your eye brows some. This is as expected as expected can be as we move towards Labor Day Weekend and the beginning of September. We watch Africa for any signs of vorticity because when a tropical wave comes off that has it's own small low embedded in it ... it has a higher chance for developing than when it comes off with a huge amount of convection but no "there" there.

Time to start paying attention.

As for Hurricane Lane it is trending towards the left.

That would be better for Hawaii.

Meanwhile they need to prepare in case it trends right.

This may or may not work.

It's a now live feed going into Lane by Recon.

Video of #NOAA42 entering the eye #HurricaneLane during the 4PM HST mission. The storm was near its peak intensity, a Category 5, at this point.  Taken by L. Bucci. pic.twitter.com/TTTzM23xwy

— HRD/AOML/NOAA (@HRD_AOML_NOAA) August 22, 2018

Stay tuned for more information later today. Also check out the previous blog post on our very strong Category 4 Hurricane Lane in the Pacific and some discussion on how Hurricane Recon began.

Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter

http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/2018/08/hurricane-lane-will-it-or-wont-it-hit.html