Invest 98L Orange with Higher Chances for Subtropical Development. East Coast Rain Remains the Problem. Flash Flooding and Concerns For Later in the Hurricane Season

40% in 5 Days as of 8 AM Tuesday

Invest 98L has a higher probability of developing into a Subtropical Storm today than yesterday, but chances are still lower than average. It has that slim window for development in the North Atlantic where shear is still high but it is possibility. The NHC seems to like it. You can see on the Earthnull satellite image that shows the winds that it is "there" looking textbook Subtropical. Winds wrapping but oddly shaped with a broad center in the middle and having a problem closing off a closed center as shear is there doing it's thing to try and stop it from forming. Okay really shear is just doing it's thing, it's not Superman personified but shear does get an award this year for keeping tropical development at bay.

Dividing the Tropical Atlantic in two parts here.

On the Eastern side convection is sparse.

It's there but it's not doing more than raining.

On the Western side below there is...\

...an abundance of convection.

Misery across the Mid Atlantic results.

You can see the various suspects.

The trigger to the NW.

The "frontal boundary" draped off shore.

High temperatures and instability.

Flooding rains are prevalent over a large area.

Also the water off shore is very warm there this year.

Yesterday I said the Baltimore area needed to watch out.

And they did have flooding there later in the day.

From Steeler land to Ravens land they are soaked.

http://www.baltimoresun.com/news/weather/weather-blog

More floating cars.

More water rescues.

I just want to point out that hurricanes do not always cause disaster, they frequently spin out to sea as "Fish Storms" doing nothing more than transferring energy around the atmosphere. Hurricanes are not always the big enemy of mankind, though sometimes they slam into our cities and do wreak damage but often they do not. Heavy rains that maintain residence over one area with daily training going on where cells keep forming along a line until they rain themselves out can create much misery and loss of life. Flash flooding is a big problem this year and whatever aspects are at plan keeping the East Atlantic quiet til now and the Western Atlantic busy with abnormal amounts of rain vs tightly wound hurricanes moving somewhere should continue for a while. Hopefully this pattern breaks and the East Coast gets a chance to dry out before a hurricane threatens to make landfall. Hurricane Fran hit North Carolina in just such a year as an example and it did not end well; Floyd also hit after an extremely wet period. I don't have to explain the details of the similarities to 2012 when Sandy found her way North up into the Mid Atlantic rather than taking a different track.

Something to think on as we watch the Tropical Atlantic.

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter