Tropics Quiet Today. Life Goes On. Get Ready for a Busier Time in August. FIU PROUD :)

I know I've been out of it lately or rather taking a break from posting on the tropics as I've been on vacation and the tropics have been pretty dead. As many of you know I've been in Miami where my youngest son graduated last night from Florida International  with a Masters in Architecture. This is the same son that was in China participating in a program this summer at Tongji University in Shanghai; he certainly gets around. Glad he's home and it was wonderful to celebrate with him and the family as he passed this milestone in his life as he sets out on his chosen career. I wanted him to go to NC State in Raleigh where they have a great Architecture program but being his mother's son he loves Miami and said he needs to lean how to build for hurricanes and FIU is the best place to do that. I graduated from FIU so it's even more sweet to come back and watch my son do so as well. Like my "little" son, my old college has grown up as well and it's impressive as it is now one of the higher ranked Universities in the country. It also is where the National Hurricane Center is located so well you knew I'd bring this back to hurricanes didn't you? His architecture class actually got a tour of the NHC building and complex; thank you to those involved in that nice field trip across the campus.

There are none in the Atlantic Basin today. There aren't even any Tropical Storms or Tropical Depressions and the models aren't even waxing poetic on possible hurricanes so I took a good time to take a vacation. If you don't believe me you can look at the models yourself below. Not much to see.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/

There are very long term models that suggest tropical development will begin later in the first week of August going into the second week but they are stabs in the dark and yet they are in line with Climo so know that hurricanes are out there down the road and waiting to take their turn onto the stage.

So many people wonder this time of year while they wait for the season to find it's groove and some seasons are much like this season where something sputters up early and then things die down while we wait for the real season to begin. Putting up a link below to a site by someone who over the years... I've come to enjoy reading his thoughts. For those of us who have been online for a long time we have long memories and well that's all I'll say.

https://www.cyclonicfury.com/2018/07/31/cyclonic-furys-final-2018-atlantic-hurricane-season-forecast-slightly-below-average-activity-anticipated/

There are many people, agencies and organizations that put out updates for the Hurricane Season. Giving you the link to one above that is easy to read and lays out for you in a more compact (but detailed form) the reasons we think this may be a less than active hurricane season. I'm calling it "normal" whatever that means personally (average is such a vague word) and many are calling it a bit below "average" or "normal" so you can read up on this while I finish my Florida vacation.

It's a good read.

It's going to be a real season.

At some point down the road.

It's hard to say exactly where and when a hurricane will threaten some town this year, but even in quiet seasons the threat is always there and hurricanes always appear. I don't like forecasting numbers and making predictions that way because it's a story that has not been written and we are just beginning the chapter called "Prelude to September" and that doesn't count out late August or early October. You can see from the image above there are well defined tropical waves moving West. The loop below shows the process where waves get stronger and remain intact crossing the Atlantic despite the dusty, dry Saharan Layer that reigns in June and July and wanes in August and September. That's why the Atlantic comes alive in September.

There is nothing expected for form but I would not put it past the tropics to offer up some close in, home grown system along the SE coast over the next few weeks while we wait for the waves to be viable. With this much convection lingering over warm waters pressures tend to lower and trouble can begin to brew up somewhere. So never shut the lid on the tropics because they are quiet, just check back every day or twice a day to make sure something surprising doesn't spin up when you least expect it. Models are not perfect, they are getting better over time but prone to missing small systems that spin up fast along the coast. There are always possibilities even when they get very little press before developing. 2018 has been a year of surprises so I'd expect to be surprised.

Note the purple and blue in the Atlantic.

Also over the GOM.

Don't let your guard down.

As for some family pride as well as Panther Pride I'll add here many people were responsible for helping to raise my youngest son aside from me.. his mother...who worked very hard sometimes at two jobs while still managing to have a life and study the tropics and write about them. While attending the Hebrew Academy on Miami Beach my youngest son stayed in Miami at my brother's house and then continued living there through college. My daughter-in-law's parents live out near FIU and they had him sleeping there by their house many nights when he left the Architecture Lab at 3 AM before going back to classes at 9 AM and I really do owe them even though they always say they "barely noticed him" but I know they kept his favorite snacks in the house and made him feel loved and cared for as well. 

Being the youngest of a large brood of kids is never easy as every other older sibling thinks they are "in charge of you" and "knows more than you" and the kid who was put into gifted early on at Greynold's Park Elementary when they told me "your son is very smart" at a late night parent teacher meeting where for some reason his teacher seemed to want me to know that fact as if I didn't realize it but as a child he loved cars, NASCAR and rock music. He had some vibrant older teenage siblings and their friends always coming and going. At his Bar Mitzvah his brother's arrived with their friends and they looked like the mob had walked in to a Hollywood movie with a Bar Mitzvah scene. Other older siblings lived far away in New York in Crown Heights and other places yet my youngest son and his close siblings grew up in Miami and Miami is a wonderful place to grow up... and grow up they did.

My brother and his nephew.

Or as he likes to call him..

"his partner in crime"

They've traveled together many places...

...many Marlins games ;)

My son Moe proud to watch him graduate.

Me and Zalmy at a wedding last year...

..wedding for his older brother Mendy.

You want to hold onto them forever.

But then they go out... and discover the world.

They travel to Spain and Germany and Shanghai.

They walk the Great Wall of China.

But they always come back to Miami.

He was actually a Season's Ticket Holder one year!

My son... his name is up on the wall.

His sister posing with him.

His older brother Moe taking pictures.

Sometimes life seems to move slowly, day by day, and it feels as if you are getting no where fast. Thunderstorms pop up in the afternoon and summer slowly moves towards the football season and dreams for the Miami Dolphins to rise up once again . . . and hurricanes begin to roll westbound across the Atlantic while we watch and wait to see what will happen. My father used to always say to me "you got to do what you got to do" and I did and so do my kids. So should we all... 

Just as my son knew that if he wanted to live and work in Miami he would need to know how to build for the Hurricane Season so to do all of us who live in Hurricane Country need to remember that those busy days are out there even while Mike is on a cruise and I'm in Miami in my daughter's bed under the big poster of Audrey Hepburn in Breakfast at Tiffany's I know that this is the quiet time, a day to relax and remember and enjoy the memories. Soon I'll be back on the road back to North Carolina a place I truly do love even though it's different from Miami. I've always been good at loving different places and different people ... appreciating the beauty in people and places the way my son appreciates the angles of buildings and landscapes. 

This is his explanation of what he did this summer.

What do you love?

What's your passion?

Follow it.

Do what you got to do.

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter

Ps... I'll be back as soon as something happens in the tropics.

You can bet on that.