Hurricane Harbor

A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!

Thursday, July 12, 2018

Somethings to Talk About Tropical and Otherwise. Chris, X Beryl Trying to Make a Come Back. Midwest Wild Weather. Cold Fronts Early. African Wave Train.




You notice two things here above.
Deep reds and oranges nearing the Great Lakes.
A large circulation off of Africa ...
..and a wave behind it coming off today.



Waves shown above.
Two very healthy waves.
Saharan Dust is waiting for them.
Classic for this time of year.
No not really...
...we are ahead of schedule this year.
The waves are actually healthier.


That's a healthy 

Put it all in motion.

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The waves in the Atlantic are mentioned below.
Also mentioned are the high winds in the Caribbean.



Going to point out some things this morning and then move on to do some things I need to get done. I suppose we could name today's blog "Somethings worth watching" :)

When looking at the wide view of the Atlantic and it's associated land masses it is very hard not to notice the huge wave coming off of Africa. There is actually another huge wave axis that moved off of Africa recently that is maintaining convection on the South side of it much like Beryl and most strong waves do this time of year. They, like people, find their energy where they can get it and work with what they have to get where they are going. Some people like regular old American Coffee such as Folgers or Maxwell House, others like Nespresso like me...  some drink Coffee, Tea or even Red Bull. There are some rare people who don't do any form of energy or drink and they drink water. Well, water is the most beneficial energy drink any of us can drink and coffee, tea and even Red Bull start with water somewhere. Water in the tropics needs to be the right temperature to get tropical convection blowing and rolling so that it makes it's way across the Planet to ours side of the world. Each wave that dies out in the East Atlantic puts moisture into the atmosphere readily available to the next wave behind it. Waves are it seems "team players" having each other's back and lending support even when they aren't going to make the trek themselves.

The end result of this process is that when the Atlantic heats up a bit more and the Saharan Dust wanes some as it is prone to do later in the summer as we approach the peak of the Hurricane Season some wave coming off of Africa with a great looking low pressure center attached will develop and become a problem. Even somewhat slow years often produce one or two dangerous, way too viable hurricanes. Sometimes they develop close in and other times they take their time, getting dangerously closer to the Islands and then develop. Every year is similar, every year is different yet the one constant is Hurricane Season really gets going later in the summer. My one problem with this year is that it feels as if we are running several weeks ahead of schedule. Time will tell how this plays out.

As for Chris it is one hell of a storm. I really cannot say enough about what a tremendous feat it achieved by even BEING a very strong Category 2 Hurricane in Early July over marginally warm water, with dry air from the nearby cold front and high pressure system that built over him trapping him below where he looped and looped yet did not die out. Had that front not been in early July (also rare) who knows for sure where and if Chris would have made landfall somewhere. Thirty Four such storms  have made landfall in North Carolina since recorded history and Chris most likely would have been thirty five if it had not paralleled the coast and made landfall further to the North. Chris was a real fighter and it's worth noting that even though it stayed off our coast it didn't ignore land further North.


Jim Williams has a way of predicting where hurricanes will go.
He makes a yearly forecast.
His forecast last year was dead on for hurricane tracks.
This year his forecast is so far on the money also.

Sable Island was his #1 pick.
You can check out more on his website.


2. Chris still recognizable 
Spread out at a high latitude.
Dangerous still.


3. Cold front moving off of the Carolinas.
Associated weather...
Early July.

4. Remnants of Beryl.
Nothing there yet.
But we are watching.
50/50 odds still by NHC
Chris left Beryl cooler waters.
Let's see what XB has under the hood.



Keep watching.

Lastly the wave off of Africa.
A wave train forming.
Needs to be watched in the long term.



Again these are the players above.

Midwest storms.
Chris.
Cold front near OBX
X Beryl
Wave Train by Africa.



Now a look around Twitter at what people are talking about and why you should think on these meteorological events.


Cranky is concerned about Chris.
Wanna know why?
Cause even downgraded to Extra Post Whatever...
It's going to be one big blow.
He shows that with great maps.
Good solid discussion.



What an amazing set of pictures.
Side by side.
Inspired Cantore to wax hyperbole today.


James Taylor needs to write a song for that one.
I've seen snow and I've seen tropical rain.
16 days apart.
Amazing.

DaBuh is watching the African Wave.
Interaction with SAL


DaBuh is more often right than wrong.
Either way he explains the pattern.
Presents the possibilities.

Wicked Weather in the Mid West.


Weather Nation covers weather.
Tornado near Red Lake Minnesota 
Again all the tornado chasing action...
...has been moved to the North this year.



Is that a sunset and a funnel cloud?
Wow. Epic beautiful.


And last but very not least.
Mike and his daughter have picked a winner.
You can go to Facebook and watch the video.
Do it! 
You might be the winner of his drawing...
Missy was the winner.
I always loved that name.

I have a confession to make.
Knowing Mike like I do..
I wondered if he was rating luncheon meat :(


No.... those are tickets for a raffle.


One thing I have to tell you is Mike is very genuine and real. He is who he is and he's a good father to both his daughters. The daughter above plays softball (all positions except catcher) and many of his Spaghetti Model Page Fans have helped contribute for her to go to play in Panama City, Florida. Mike donated an incredible prize for people who helped and he is extremely grateful to his wonderful fans. Those are his words, he has often waxed poetic on how wonderful his fans are and the people who talk on Facebook and discuss weather with him while watching his Facebook Live. He's inspirational in ways because he truly finds ways to enjoy life; maybe it's the moonshine...

That's it everyone. Have a wonderful Thursday and keep an eye on the weather always.

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter 



That's me... a photo I took while out storm chasing with my daughter in New York City. Yes, NYC gets crazy summer storms (that was during Hurricane Arthur passing off shore) and sometimes in years such as this when all the energy is way up north they really do walk the line between waiting on cold fronts and winter to begin and saying goodbye to Hurricane Season. I could be wrong, I'm just pointing out the pattern and this year's pattern of Tornado season taking a Northern Vacation to Wyoming and the Dakotas and Minnesota, extreme flooding and rain from Pittsburgh to Maryland and even the appearance of a hurricane off the East Coast in July all point to possible tropical problems for the Mid Atlantic later in the Hurricane Season. 


Ps Some music history.

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