Hurricane Harbor

A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!

Wednesday, July 04, 2018

UPDATED! Odds 8 PM 70% chances on 95L ....(Obviously They Are Waiting for 1st Morning Visible) Much to Watch on July 4th. Invest 95L Looking Strong Despite SAL and Area of E Coast Has Strong Chances from NHC. Tropical Discussion. July 4th Thoughts.

There's 95L
Riding along with the SAL.
Below you can pick it out easily.
New chances up to 70%
Obviously they are waiting for ......
...1st morning visible imagery.

Small but vigorous :)

Stay tuned.

Going to watch fire works.
Enjoy the evening.
95L can wait.
Even though it's making a compelling case.
Putting on a pretty sure in the MDR.
Besos BobbiStorm

* * *
Keep reading.
Update from 7 PM

A special tropical statement was put out this afternoon.

Basically as I said it looked better than the odds it was given.
It definitely needed to be at least orange.
Long range prospects low for going all the way.
But getting designation chances are there.
But does it have a closed center?

Almost closed off.
It does have the weather though.
The winds to the NE of the "center" are strong.

Looks like a tropical depression to me.

Classic looking.
Small system in a huge pocket.
Huge pocket means moisture around it.
Mostly being fed by moisture from the South.
SAL to the North.
Can it ramp up enough to get a name?
Discussion online below:

No long term threats right now.
I'll say that again.
But as of now and tomorrow...
Definitely trying to be a TD at least.
If a center is found winds may support the name Beryl.

As for me...
Went to the lake :)
Stayed up there waiting for the storms to build.
Left as it began to rain and they close up the road.

Beautiful really.
Falls Lake.
Man made.
You can read about it below.
The view from the other side.
A beautiful view in the Fall...
...or anytime of year.

Neuse River.

Raleigh can be beautiful.
We ended up with pizza for Brunch.
My husband is making steak for dinner.
Then fireworks across the street... permitting I suppose.

I'll update later if the NHC surprises us anymore.

* * *

Discussion from 10 AM
Still valid.

* * *

So much to talk about today.
It was supposed to be quiet....
...except for the fireworks!

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I want to draw your attention to 3 things.
1 is the area far off the E Coast.
2 is the vigorous tropical wave bottom right.
3 is an area in SW Carib not expected to develop.

Discussion on the tropical wave below.

The area off the East Coast has the highest official odds of developing over the next five days. It's officially orange as in mango tropical orange with a 60% chance of developing in the five day and 40% in the 2 day. That's better than even odds so many expect this area to become Tropical Storm Beryl. That could happen but systems like this take a while to come together often having a slim window for formation. If they get going they can ramp up and go far distance wise usually paralleling the coastline. The ULL to it's West needs to get out of the way, the timing with the cold front forecast to drop down and convection needing to build over a perceived center all need to come together just right. Models obviously suggest it's hot to trot or the NHC wouldn't be giving it mango orange odds. 

Note the dust in orange.
The dent in the orange is Invest 95L

The vigorous tropical wave called "spunky" by some online is persistently flaring up over marginally warm water staying South of the Saharan Dust to it's North like a good, savvy quarterback in the pocket with good protection biding his time looking for an open receiver. The tropical wave we are watching in the MDR (main development region) is in fact tagged as Invest 95L and models are shown below. Despite having officially lower odds it is an official Invest vs "just a strong tropical wave" so we are in a bit of a quandary here wondering what happens next. It is also developing a center of circulation on some level (mid level possibly) that has not yet closed off but it getting closer to closing off. It should definitely at least be orange but it is in fact lemon yellow on the NHC map as of 8 AM. That could change later today. Remember even if an Invest has only a 40% chance of development in the five day that allows for it to become a designated system sooner rather than later even if it only has a yellow or orange circle around it regarding formation.  Note the definition below.

There is much discussion on this online currently.
It's definitely spunky I agree on that.

Models do more with Invest 95L shown below.

By some parameters below....
...area off the E coast is barely there.
Note the 2 purple areas in E Atlantic.

Strong SAL.
Busy Tropical Wave Season.
Kelvin Wave also in the area.
Levi Cowan goes into detail below.

Michael Ventrice is excellent at what he does and he often speaks of Kelvin Waves. Much like the MJO they travel around the planet and where they go tropical trouble often develops. Think of them like German Tourists on South Beach on their way to another destination but enjoying breakfast on Lincoln Road and spreading their money around stimulating the economy. If you are from Miami Beach that really would make sense, but they could be any tourists passing through stimulating the economy. So despite it being far away, not forecast to be able to keep fighting off negative things being thrown at it such as dry air, SAL, shear there out ahead of it is currently doing what few waves this time of year have been able to do that being ... developing. What does the NHC do is the question? Just because a wave may give it up before the Islands as Easterly Shear hits it hard doesn't mean it doesn't deserve a name or designation as a Tropical Depression today. What will be tomorrow we will see soon enough. A few days ago the NHC said "no development for the next 5 days" yet here we are with two areas we are watching in the Atlantic. Keep watching. Fun for some of us to have something to watch online as we loop in AC with temperatures soaring to record levels while praying for the cold front to actually make it down to the Carolinas.  Note the image below from the water vapor loop. Despite all the SAL Invest 95L has a nice pocket of moisture. There is a finger of dry air trying to get in there much like a pass rusher trying to sack the quarterback, but for now our Invest is scrambling West fast and managing to control the ball.

Lastly there is a very strong area of convection that has persisted in the SW Caribbean for the last few days. It flares up bright on satellite imagery and people wonder why no one is talking about it. Many reasons no one is talking on it, most importantly the models do not currently like it as well as it's mostly convection with little to show for it wind wise. Stormy weather. Strong shear from the Pacific mostly because of the multiple storms in the EPAC and some early El Nino windy pattern possibly developing is making it wane while it flares up again, then wanes. Often areas such as this wait for another feature such as a tropical wave nearby to latch onto and like parasites they wrap together into something more than before. It has happened in the past, it will happen again the real question is will it happen this time? Time will tell, keep watching. 

I would not be surprised to be surprised this Hurricane Season. It's just as likely with new satellite imagery tools that we have that the NHC upgrades Invest 95L to Tropical Depression status IF they feel it truly has a closed center even if it is not close enough to fly recon into it. So could it or the area off the East Coast become Beryl? The answer is yet... it's plausible. Likely? Hard to say. A real quandary in that 3 days ago we were told there wasn't anything on the tropical horizon for the next five days and yet her we are with color all over the NHC Home Page. I went on Instagram to see pictures from my youngest son who is in Shanghai... China this week on at an Architectural Conference for Graduate Students and there was a picture of my granddaughter in Olympia Washington in a Summer Camp dancing with other girls. Of course my Bella is dancing ;) and my youngest son is traveling. It's been that kind of summer......  

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And, oh it's got a roll starting on there so remember again and again weather happens, sometimes it happens fast in real time. As for me it's time to cook brunch for my husband and we are going up to the Lake I think (he doesn't know yet... he slept in this morning) and then going to watch fireworks tonight by the Country Club across the street and there probably will be frozen yogurt involved some time today. July 4th in the Carolinas.... a great place to be on July 4th.

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You can watch the 3rd area in the SW Caribbean.
Also note an old tropical wave battling Easterly Shear.
Trying to hook up with the SW Caribbean mess.
Will anything happen in the end?
Tropical Soap Opera in the making.
You can also watch the 1st area E of the Coast.

One final note here is when looking at the image above be aware of many things other than the Invest and the flare up in the SW Caribbean and the orange area on the NHC map with high odds off the East Coast. Also remember those numbers are for the 2 day not the 5 day, but it shows what I want you to look at. Dry air to the North of the wave and the presence of an early High Pressure set up across the Atlantic. Look at the wispy lines at the top of the picture. A cold front is present and on the move but will it really "whoosh" through the Carolinas and pick up the orange X or will it move down, make everyone happy for one day only and then back back up over the area and IF that happens as in the back backing up what will happen to our orange X? Will it get trapped under a weak but present ridge and sit there a while? Will it fall apart and never really pull it together? Will it flirt with the beaches of the Carolina? The area of possible formation has nudged a bit closer to the coast than it was last night. They aren't lined up perfect but you can see the difference below. 

Keep watching.

As for my friends in Florida.
Again you are getting rain from an ULL.
The "dirty side" of an ULL
Dirty side means the part with weather.
If it's too rainy for you.
Go out and stimulate the economy.
May I suggest Aventura Mall.
Enjoy the fireworks.
Give Thanks to America.
God Bless the USA.

One of my favorites...

Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter

Ps... If you don't want to go outside.
You can stay home and watch on TV.
Or... shop online.
Have some wine... a hot dog.
Maybe Pizza?
Happy 4th of July

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