UPDATED! Odds 8 PM 70% chances on 95L ....(Obviously They Are Waiting for 1st Morning Visible) Much to Watch on July 4th. Invest 95L Looking Strong Despite SAL and Area of E Coast Has Strong Chances from NHC. Tropical Discussion. July 4th Thoughts.

There's 95L

Riding along with the SAL.

Below you can pick it out easily.

New chances up to 70%

Obviously they are waiting for ......

...1st morning visible imagery.

Small but vigorous :)

Stay tuned.

Going to watch fire works.

Enjoy the evening.

95L can wait.

Even though it's making a compelling case.

Putting on a pretty sure in the MDR.

Besos BobbiStorm

* * *

Keep reading.
Update from 7 PM



A special tropical statement was put out this afternoon.



Basically as I said it looked better than the odds it was given.
It definitely needed to be at least orange.
Long range prospects low for going all the way.
But getting designation chances are there.
But does it have a closed center?



Almost closed off.
It does have the weather though.
The winds to the NE of the "center" are strong.

Looks like a tropical depression to me.

Classic looking.

Small system in a huge pocket.

Huge pocket means moisture around it.

Mostly being fed by moisture from the South.

SAL to the North.

Can it ramp up enough to get a name?

Discussion online below:

No long term threats right now.

I'll say that again.

But as of now and tomorrow...

Definitely trying to be a TD at least.

If a center is found winds may support the name Beryl.

As for me...

Went to the lake :)

Stayed up there waiting for the storms to build.

Left as it began to rain and they close up the road.

Beautiful really.

Falls Lake.

Man made.

You can read about it below.

The view from the other side.

A beautiful view in the Fall...

...or anytime of year.

http://epec.saw.usace.army.mil/neuse.htm

Neuse River.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Neuse_River

Raleigh can be beautiful.

We ended up with pizza for Brunch.

My husband is making steak for dinner.

Then fireworks across the street...

..weather permitting I suppose.

I'll update later if the NHC surprises us anymore.

* * *

Discussion from 10 AM

Still valid.

Obviouslhy

* * *

So much to talk about today.

It was supposed to be quiet....

...except for the fireworks!

I want to draw your attention to 3 things.

1 is the area far off the E Coast.

2 is the vigorous tropical wave bottom right.

3 is an area in SW Carib not expected to develop.

Discussion on the tropical wave below.

The area off the East Coast has the highest official odds of developing over the next five days. It's officially orange as in mango tropical orange with a 60% chance of developing in the five day and 40% in the 2 day. That's better than even odds so many expect this area to become Tropical Storm Beryl. That could happen but systems like this take a while to come together often having a slim window for formation. If they get going they can ramp up and go far distance wise usually paralleling the coastline. The ULL to it's West needs to get out of the way, the timing with the cold front forecast to drop down and convection needing to build over a perceived center all need to come together just right. Models obviously suggest it's hot to trot or the NHC wouldn't be giving it mango orange odds. 

Note the dust in orange.

The dent in the orange is Invest 95L

The vigorous tropical wave called "spunky" by some online is persistently flaring up over marginally warm water staying South of the Saharan Dust to it's North like a good, savvy quarterback in the pocket with good protection biding his time looking for an open receiver. The tropical wave we are watching in the MDR (main development region) is in fact tagged as Invest 95L and models are shown below. Despite having officially lower odds it is an official Invest vs "just a strong tropical wave" so we are in a bit of a quandary here wondering what happens next. It is also developing a center of circulation on some level (mid level possibly) that has not yet closed off but it getting closer to closing off. It should definitely at least be orange but it is in fact lemon yellow on the NHC map as of 8 AM. That could change later today. Remember even if an Invest has only a 40% chance of development in the five day that allows for it to become a designated system sooner rather than later even if it only has a yellow or orange circle around it regarding formation.  Note the definition below.

There is much discussion on this online currently.

It's definitely spunky I agree on that.

Models do more with Invest 95L shown below.

By some parameters below....

...area off the E coast is barely there.

Note the 2 purple areas in E Atlantic.

Strong SAL.

Busy Tropical Wave Season.

Kelvin Wave also in the area.

Levi Cowan goes into detail below.

Michael Ventrice is excellent at what he does and he often speaks of Kelvin Waves. Much like the MJO they travel around the planet and where they go tropical trouble often develops. Think of them like German Tourists on South Beach on their way to another destination but enjoying breakfast on Lincoln Road and spreading their money around stimulating the economy. If you are from Miami Beach that really would make sense, but they could be any tourists passing through stimulating the economy. So despite it being far away, not forecast to be able to keep fighting off negative things being thrown at it such as dry air, SAL, shear there out ahead of it ...it is currently doing what few waves this time of year have been able to do that being ... developing. What does the NHC do is the question? Just because a wave may give it up before the Islands as Easterly Shear hits it hard doesn't mean it doesn't deserve a name or designation as a Tropical Depression today. What will be tomorrow we will see soon enough. A few days ago the NHC said "no development for the next 5 days" yet here we are with two areas we are watching in the Atlantic. Keep watching. Fun for some of us to have something to watch online as we loop in AC with temperatures soaring to record levels while praying for the cold front to actually make it down to the Carolinas.  Note the image below from the water vapor loop. Despite all the SAL Invest 95L has a nice pocket of moisture. There is a finger of dry air trying to get in there much like a pass rusher trying to sack the quarterback, but for now our Invest is scrambling West fast and managing to control the ball.

Lastly there is a very strong area of convection that has persisted in the SW Caribbean for the last few days. It flares up bright on satellite imagery and people wonder why no one is talking about it. Many reasons no one is talking on it, most importantly the models do not currently like it as well as it's mostly convection with little to show for it wind wise. Stormy weather. Strong shear from the Pacific mostly because of the multiple storms in the EPAC and some early El Nino windy pattern possibly developing is making it wane while it flares up again, then wanes. Often areas such as this wait for another feature such as a tropical wave nearby to latch onto and like parasites they wrap together into something more than before. It has happened in the past, it will happen again the real question is will it happen this time? Time will tell, keep watching. 

I would not be surprised to be surprised this Hurricane Season. It's just as likely with new satellite imagery tools that we have that the NHC upgrades Invest 95L to Tropical Depression status IF they feel it truly has a closed center even if it is not close enough to fly recon into it. So could it or the area off the East Coast become Beryl? The answer is yet... it's plausible. Likely? Hard to say. A real quandary in that 3 days ago we were told there wasn't anything on the tropical horizon for the next five days and yet her we are with color all over the NHC Home Page. I went on Instagram to see pictures from my youngest son who is in Shanghai... China this week on at an Architectural Conference for Graduate Students and there was a picture of my granddaughter in Olympia Washington in a Summer Camp dancing with other girls. Of course my Bella is dancing ;) and my youngest son is traveling. It's been that kind of summer......  

And, oh it's got a roll starting on there so remember again and again weather happens, sometimes it happens fast in real time. As for me it's time to cook brunch for my husband and we are going up to the Lake I think (he doesn't know yet... he slept in this morning) and then going to watch fireworks tonight by the Country Club across the street and there probably will be frozen yogurt involved some time today. July 4th in the Carolinas.... a great place to be on July 4th.

You can watch the 3rd area in the SW Caribbean.

Also note an old tropical wave battling Easterly Shear.

Trying to hook up with the SW Caribbean mess.

Will anything happen in the end?

Tropical Soap Opera in the making.

You can also watch the 1st area E of the Coast.

One final note here is when looking at the image above be aware of many things other than the Invest and the flare up in the SW Caribbean and the orange area on the NHC map with high odds off the East Coast. Also remember those numbers are for the 2 day not the 5 day, but it shows what I want you to look at. Dry air to the North of the wave and the presence of an early High Pressure set up across the Atlantic. Look at the wispy lines at the top of the picture. A cold front is present and on the move but will it really "whoosh" through the Carolinas and pick up the orange X or will it move down, make everyone happy for one day only and then back back up over the area and IF that happens as in the back backing up what will happen to our orange X? Will it get trapped under a weak but present ridge and sit there a while? Will it fall apart and never really pull it together? Will it flirt with the beaches of the Carolina? The area of possible formation has nudged a bit closer to the coast than it was last night. They aren't lined up perfect but you can see the difference below. 

Keep watching.

As for my friends in Florida.

Again you are getting rain from an ULL.

The "dirty side" of an ULL

Dirty side means the part with weather.

If it's too rainy for you.

Go out and stimulate the economy.

May I suggest Aventura Mall.

Enjoy the fireworks.

Give Thanks to America.

God Bless the USA.

One of my favorites...

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter 

https://www.facebook.com/bobbi.storm.5

Ps... If you don't want to go outside.

You can stay home and watch on TV.

Or... shop online.

Have some wine... 

...eat a hot dog.

Maybe Pizza?

Happy 4th of July

Tropics Monday. Models and Possible Trouble in EPAC & Down the Road in the GOM? Beach Days, Sunshine, Palm Trees and Thunderstorms. Color, Maps and Make Up :)

Using this very popular site to view the ocean's temperatures it's obvious that the extreme heat anomaly off the East Coast could become a problem should a long traveling wave make it to our side of the Atlantic or should some tail end of a dead front try to spin something up close in to the coast. If this was August 1st and the water's off the coast of Africa were the color palette for the new Cool Wave Dior eye shadow I'd be getting ready to write off the Cape Verde Hurricane Season. However, this is early June and it's typical for things to be too cool out there this time of year. What SAL does not kill the cooler ocean temperatures destroy totally until later in the season. Oddly the warmer parts of the ocean are orange and gold the other new eye shadow palette for the summer of 2018.

I don't know why people sit around in June before the tropics get active debating whether El Nino or La Nina is going to win out when ever we are in a Neutral pattern but they do. Those same people spend the next few months arguing which model is better or whether Samsung phones are better than the Cult Classic iPhone. We seem to be caught up indefinitely in arguing one side vs the other be it politics, phones or meteorological modeling. Climo always weighs in on one level or another even if other factors are mitigating and have a strong decisive input on how the Hurricane Season actually plays out. 

In truth this time of year belongs to the EPAC basin when the A and B storm usually form way before we even have a viable tropical wave; obviously this year the Atlantic Basin won that tropical shoot out.  A rule of thumb that doesn't mean anything scientifically but that usually plays out is you count 7 to 10 days after the Epac gets busy before something spins again in the Caribbean. In this case there is the possibility of another Alberto like system forming in the same area, being pulled North towards the Central Gulf Coast with much weather to the right of the center. Mind you that "center" is totally in theory and nothing more other than as we say innuendo and her cousin speculation. Such a system would be within the realm of climo and the current weather pattern. 

90E has indeed formed in the EPAC and already has it's map grid in place and that's one step before it's actually designated usually so stay tuned for Aletta forming in the Eastern Pacific. Again their season starts on May 15th a full two weeks before ours so we expect June to be filled with Epac systems vs Atlantic spinners. During this period in the Atlantic Cousin SAL (Saharan Dust for newbies) rules the ocean drying out a good part of the atmosphere while African waves come off too low and land in waters too cool anyway to get anything going. Dabuh explains this with his always entertaining and sometimes cryptic posts that are usually on the money.

The tongue he is speaking of is shown below.

SAL shows up in dark reds.

One thing meteorologists love to do is look at maps; some even draw their own maps. And we love color as color shows the intricacies and every little feature on the map; the highs, the lows, the warmth, the cold as well as the air flow with arrows and comments. Color makes everything better when explaining a complicated set of patterns in the atmosphere. If it was easy we wouldn't be so intrigued. 

I love make up.

I bought the purple eye liner.

Of course... 

...I own the blue Dior palette.

As much as I love the black and white water vapor loop...

...our eyes assign meaning to colors.

Blue is the cool ocean.

Blue is the sky.

Red is fire.

Red is warm and hot.

Cranky's map is easy to understand...

..with his arrows and use of color.

And, June is the time of year to study the trends as winter phases away, the high moves into place and the Sonoran Heat Ridge sets up. Cold fronts begin to collapse, warm moist air from the Caribbean moves North towards Florida and the Gulf of Mexico. And meteorologists and weather people discuss details and possibilities. This is June, this is who we are and this is the way of the weather world.

Cindy with her right sided rain shield.

Today in South Florida.

I spoke to soon this morning and this afternoon the heavens opened up in South Florida and it poured for a few hours. I lay in bed with the AC set to about 70 degrees at my son's house listening to the sounds of the rain against the aluminum awning old fashioned Florida hurricane shutters. Any old Miami kid knows what I'm talking about; but the I never realized the sounds of the rain made tropical music that sounded like a steel drum band. It was beautiful. The dogs do not think the sounds of the rain are beautiful and they bark every time it thunders. This morning we had breakfast on A1A in Ft. Lauderdale with palm trees and sunshine. It was so hot by 11 AM as in hot as blazes which implies the atmosphere was on fire as in red, hot heat.

As for the volcano in Guatemala I'll talk on that another day. Oddly after the colorful pictures of the volcano exploding we are inundated with pictures of the green landscape covered in white ash as the search goes on for more victims. That's not snow. And as far as the ash goes it's an unhealthy, dangerous situation and the death toll is into the high 60s so far and will only climb higher. This summer may end up going down as one geologically active as well as tropically busy.

For those of us intrigued by Earth Science...

...we are intrigued. 

As for me I'm in Florida on vacation.

Took this pic yesterday.

My friend owns a hotel down in the Keys.

Awesome isn't it?

Key Largo to be exact. 

Cute place that is real Keys wonderful.

Laid back and relaxed.

http://www.rockreefresort.com

That's a real picture.

Not a post card.

Be well, Be kind and Be happy.

You can prepare for hurricanes.

So get off your butt and prepare!

It's going to be a colorful year.

Be colorful. 

Be real.

Be yourself.

There's me playing at the make up counter.

My new pink iPhone.

Because I'm a hot pink girl in a pastel world.

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter

My daughter in law with baby Olivia.

Also in pink wearing sun glasses.

Good times.

Ps... home playing with the babies, hanging with the kids.

Enjoying my Floridays.

Never be predictable ;)

Read this morning's post.

Some thoughts on the Volcano...

..wondering on how it affects the Hurricane Season

Could it?

http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/2018/06/tropical-roundup-1-volcano-and-3.html

Weather people love to talk... chat... shoot the breeze.

https://www.reddit.com/r/TropicalWeather/comments/7i7w2o/volcanic_

ash_can_weaken_hurricanes/