Hurricane Harbor

A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!

Thursday, September 12, 2019

95L Forecast by Models to be Humberto. Oh and Humberto Has a Fan Named Imelda Following Him.. Like a Groupie.. East Coast Repeat of Dorian or GOM? What Begins In Cuba Doesn't Stay in Cuba Down the Road.


3:30 PM

Note we are at 80% in 5 days for development.
Before reading further...
.. putting this excellent tweet here.
Interesting indeed.
Note the bottom of the map has more tracks.
As I said earlier... it's possible Imelda forms to the S
South of Humberto that should form...
(lots of ifs...)
and Imelda wants to follow Humberto.
Currently we just have Invest 95L




Why are there so many model differences?
A rather new good met in Raleigh tweeted this..


Note they started at different points.
You can't come to a fork in the road....
...if you are on a different road.

Hard job for NHC.
Until a center pops out.
and models are run from that point.
Models will continue being messy.
But the general concern remains.




Take away from above is...
1... Recon going in..
2... Potential Tropical Cyclone Advisories could begin.


You see the convection above.
Diffuse over a large area.
More concentrated last night.
Shear is light in that general area.


See where it says -10
in blue NE of Cuba.
Where NHC X is...

However there's disturbance from nearby ULL


That ULL is swirling...
..drawing convection apart...
..add in small mini ULL to it's NE
And note below...
Earthnull shows a kind of center.
A bit of convection there but not wrapped around it.



Models are useless as they differ in timing, intensity and track.
It's possible models are picking up on different centers.
Until you have a closed center...
...you just don't really know for sure.

If you live in South Florida rain may be in your forecast.
It can slip up the coast.
More on that later.
Stay tuned.




Note the newest NOAA Loops...

allfcsts_loop_ndfd.gif (799×559)

Places a Low down near/over Florida.
Expect Potential Tropical Cyclone Alerts...
...to begin from NHC soon.
Very possible... not there yet.
But probable.
Recon goes in later today.
Keep reading...


Before the sun rose...
...after the sun rose on Invest 95L


See the question is which center is the center.
Developing systems can have many centers.
Where Humberto forms...
...impacts the track.
Changes everything.


On the image above you can see blow ups ...
Explosively trying to develop.


Nice large pocket.
Now where does it form?
That point directs the models.
Latest models at 9:30 AM
Compare and contrast with older ones.


Models look scary...but...
From far away nothing there yet...
So what's the hysteria about?
Oh did I say hysteria?
While you slept the models kept running.


You have to zoom all the way in.......



See it's lifted off the coast of Cuba from yesterday..

NHC has 95L at 80% RED in the 5 day.



High marks for a student they didn't think much on...
...on the first day of school.
70% in the 2 Day.
So this could get named sooner rather than later.


And it's got a friend.
Remember that.



94L is gone.
BUT.......it's old track is still in play.

atl_ir4_sat_tropicalindex_anim.gif (640×480)

Putting in motion for you...
You can check back and watch it in real time.

The big question here this morning is...
...what happened to the strong ridge?
Not that I'd mind seeing the hot temps go away.
But what pushes them away could be a pain.
I may be drinking PSL Frappes...
...but it's still feeling like deep Summer in the Carolinas.

So doing models first today.
Later this afternoon we can compare.
Contrast.
And look at the various satellites
See what the future Humberto did today.
Note some GFS runs take it into the GOM.
Nothing is off the table yet with this one.
Though this morning everyone's watching the E Coast.


Link to the GFS and warning this run does a lot of strange acrobatics in the Atlantic.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=atl&pkg=mslpaNorm


Starts down by Florida on Monday.


Then moves up the Florida Coast.
Shuffle Dance of 2019


Stays politely out at sea.
Oh Lows appear everywhere ..
..in Mid Atlantic.
Why I don't know.
It's the GFS


Thursday GFS cruises Humberto past NE...
...up to the Canadian Maritimes area.

You have to loop it yourself.
To see the Atlantic Acrobatics it's got going on also.

So let's move on to the EURO that stirred everyone up this morning upon waking up and finding out it brings Humberto together fast enough for 3 different recon missions to be flown today and us to see the Dorian 2 Track but for 95L not long term 94L and luckily those who still have their hurricane supplies (just in case) still have their hurricane supplies. The EURO has many members of it's ensemble (talking weather not politics) and many want to ride Humberto up the coast giving him a tour of the Mid Atlantic, NJ, NY and of course New England on it's Grand American Tour of 2019. Oh and if you believe this run of King Euro know it has a fan that follows him everywhere. No one in tropical meteorology needed a shower to wake up this morning and the coffee is going cold. Yes, it was one run and it flipped greatly from the previous one so we do what we always do and don't eat the hurricane supplies and wait for the next run.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf&region=atl&pkg=mslpaNorm


www.tropicaltidbits.com
Remember it ends with this image.


Humberto begins as expected off SFL
Not so much to look at...
...then does a Florida Beach tour like Dorian.


Bit stronger here waving to Charleston again...
...oh wait what's that down there?


Excuse me? OBX again?
What's down by Cuba?


But what begins down by Cuba...
...doesn't stay down by Cuba.
What starts down there after sneaking in...
...to the Caribbean.
Could be Imelda

Yeah that song "let's do it again...."
Oh and now Imelda has friends.
After Humberto leaves.



So you ask can this really happen?

Yes and it has happened over and over again.
Try 1955 though 1954 had the same game plan too.


Following 1954.
I'll say that again.



Often history repeats.
Frances and Jeanne.
3 weeks apart less than 2 miles apart.

It's what we call repetitive pattern.

Will this happen?
Have to wait and see.
Next model run and.......
..more important watch satellite loops.
Get plane info...
...had to ask @DadaBuh.
Master of songs.


Of course this is the song I thought on...
One of my favorite country songs ...
...from a while back.
Actually used it for a ring tone.
Because we gonna be watching aircraft take off..
...if the next model run is the same as this one.
But usually they flip flop ... ...  


Oh and the kicker here is the Canadian.
I know ..you knew that.


Listen I said early on this season....
...it was a coastal cruiser season.
Donna repeat over and over now it seems.
The pattern called for it... I'm not a seer.
I just call em like I see em.


I'll update later today.
After the afternoon model runs.
We can compare and contrast.
And as always in September prepare...
... because it's peak of the Hurricane Season.

Going to take a long shower.
Have more better coffee...
...and listen to Mike at 9:19 AM
Cause want to here my good old boy..
...tell me what he thought when he saw models.
www.spaghettimodels.com

;)

Til then going to dance to Havana oooh na na 
Because I love that song ;)
Note what begins in Cuba...
... won't stay in Cuba.

But does it go up the East Coast?
Or get into the Gulf of Mexico?

Dangerous either way if that happens.

Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram.




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posted by BobbiStorm @ 6:02 AM 0 comments

Tuesday, August 20, 2019

UPDATED 11 PM. Tropical Storm Chantal Forms in NORTH Atlantic....African Wave Train... Orange Blossom Special... Coming Soon. Models Perk Up. Show Possibilities.




Note we may have a looper.......


Earlier tonight this happened.....





So that decision was made.
In truth 97L looked good all afternoon.
Sometimes oddly a system can form up there...
Statement from the NHC.
I'll name a few tomorrow morning for you.


Nice little ball of convection.
Looks more tropical than Barry.
We be making progress...


Phil Ferro on air in Miami puts it well.
Very well.... nice graphics.


Everyone's a critic........


 To be honest it's barely on some of the satellites.


Hmnnn

Irony.

As nothing was happening I went out with my husband tonight to some Meetup he attends to see friends. I had a drink... some vodka, hibiscus syrup, basil, lime, agave ... a cherry and it was good; not too sweet but enough of a kick to take my mind off the hurricane season. Then we went out for sushi.... it was good sushi.... I was tired as I woke up very early and took allergy medicine figuring I'd just go to sleep and start over in the morning and then..........they announced Chantal. Earlier today I did wonder if they might upgrade 97L as it was looking good, better than ever. It was looking better than Barry but time was passing and I was falling asleep. Now I'm up, because I had to wait for the advisory package.... yup. Chantal. Next name up is Dorian. 

Night everyone... Sweet Tropical Dreams. 
Ps if you haven't read the earlier discussion please do as it's all valid. Oh GFS and EURO now show another system trying to form where TD3 and Invest 97L was first found with great tropical aspirations. A sneak peak. Let's see in the morning if the models didn't back off on that or begin to lock in on it. www.spaghettimodels.com top left side where he links to Tropical Tidbits.

Nite everyone... Nite Chantal. (pretty name)



Models.




Tropics today.


Tropical Wave stretched across the Caribbean.
North end.... SW end.
GOM has low chances.
More on that later.


But look at that consistency off of Africa.


Seriously though today is August 20th.
I know hard to believe.....


Today is the day the Hurricane Season really ramps up.
Speaking statistically from an academic point of view.
Dr. Bill Gray, who I adored, would ring a bell.
So let's see what's going on today in the tropics.

Here's a good link for shear...
It changes daily.
The more green there is....
...the more we are set to GO.



http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8shr.GIF use it daily

The rumblings of tropical formation off in the not to distant future can be heard today as models begin to consistently show formation probabilities as we dig deeper into the month of August. You know what it's like when you hear distant thunder out there somewhere above the tree line and a bit beyond the horizon and you know someone is going to get a nasty thunderstorm but you're not sure if it's going to be at your house or your cousin Sue's down the way. It's out there coming despite seeming a bit nebulous before the skies darken and the wind begins to blow.

atl_ir4_sat_tropicalindex_anim.gif (640×480)

I've always been a fan of wide loops as you can see all the players and how they interconnect and everything is always connected. Hurricanes don't exist in a perfect vacuum they form when all the ingredients are ready and in place. Steering currents are often locked in for the short term and evolve just so as things begin to change and change is inevitable. 

We have our constant friendly frontal boundary draped across the SE like an old lazy well loved, loyal dog that lays by our feet as we play online. Occasionally it barks at some passing feature that caught it's attention and then goes predictably back to sleep but rarely leaves it's place next to our feet.  We have the huge ongoing, ever occurring thunderstorm complex on that map up near St. Louis always racing like it's late for a date in Memphis on some Groundhog Day loop and we keep wondering will another Yellow X form over Tennessee again. There is the briefest suggestion down in the Caribbean of spin moving towards the tip of the Yucatan at the base of another wave that made it across the Atlantic but didn't develop because of Cousin SAL.  And far off bottom right we have another, healthier tropical wave sliding across the water slide of the Inter Tropical Convergence Zone.  Oh did I mention Invest 97L lived to spin out huge model support to tell tropical tales one more day. 


Yeah that keeps happening.
10% yellow.
I like to call it... Tall Tales of the Tropical North Atlantic.


@icyclone says it his own way.


Hey he's got a real talent for creativity....
...and passion for the core of an hurricane.
A real hurricane.
Fluff doesn't excite him much.



He's in a mood.
He can hear the distant rumble coming.

The things we do while waiting for things to come to life.
And they are in different ways every day.

So let's do models for a change.
Note you can go to these two sites for good models.
www.spaghettimodels.com top left.
www.tropicaltidbits.com learn the site it's easy.

GFS model.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=atl&pkg=mslpaNorm

There's some weird funkiness going on there but the bottom line is it does close off tropical waves finally though it doesn't hold onto them very long, but we all have to start somewhere right?


It started with this weird radioactive symbol.



See?
Okay moving on now.




There's this itsy bitsy low.
Enough for Cranky to rant long on...
Early systems are often small.
Then they grow as way bigger.
Sometimes they come off in twos.


Then they fade away and another one forms.


A real wave train begins.

While you were watching the wave train.
This sneaky low feature develops E of Florida.
And backs up into the Panhandle.


Anyone who has ever taken Amtrak's Silver Star...
....knows this happens when the train leaves the East Coast.
Then goes backward most of the way to Tampa...
...it's weird, timely but it seems to work.
Silver Meteor stays on E coast and it's fast.
The Silver Star is NOT the meteor it's slow.
Now you know.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf&region=atl&pkg=mslpaNorm

Moving on to the Euro.



The Euro shows waves coming off.
It daily closes them off .....
....then loses them again.
But it's a start.

On the 28th things get busier.
Lows pop up everywhere.


A low off the coast of Morocco keeps showing up oddly.
A small closed barely there low trying to move West.
Note the area is wetter now & less dry.
SAL is losing his grip.
And what's the Low off the East Coast.
Similar in ways to the GFS.



Going to remind you of something I said a while back.
I said it in the form of a joke.
But it's been as persistent as the front....
...and the MidWest frog stranglers.
I just keep seeing something odd there.
Now it's on the models.



On August 30th this model shows that.
Not that's not 97L
Could get a designation as an Invest.
Who knows ... the point is.... 
The show is about to begin.

Speaking of shows...




Kind of exciting, finally here in the USA

The reason I don't like showing models this far out with no real tropical disturbance looking rough and ready is that models change on every run. The 12Z then the 18Z then we start over and do it again and lows close off and open up the way the old pooch breathes and snores at your feet every day. It is what it is ... but.....it is a sign that things are beginning to come alive.  I said that things would pop a bit in Mid August around August 15th give or take and 97L popped up and trust me with even a little bit of encouragement from Mother Nature it might have briefly gotten the name Chantal. But the real message of 97L is the same message TD3 was selling... in that we all need to watch the East Coast in the coming days. 

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=gom&product=ir

Great loop on Tropical Tidbits if you want to watch the Gulf of Mexico in real time.


Will the energy in the Caribbean....
...hook up close in with the frontal boundary energy?
Check back tomorrow.


What about the Gulf of Mexico you ask? Let's switch modes. While the models don't show a closed Low with a name ready to be given they do show moisture tendencies and whisper possibilities. www.windy.com is a great site to play with for this set up.



Around the 22nd to the 24th there is moisture.
I can't bring it in any more than that.
I know everyone keeps waiting and talking.
My Grandma Mary used to love her Ouija Board.


No that's not my grandma but you get the idea.
We'd hold that cup and see if it moved....
No I'll stick to Tarot and Astrology ;)
Gosh I miss my Grandma Mary.
Also she had a Southern Accent.
New Orleans Voodoo sounds better that way.

Either way heavy tropical rains are coming.


So this is my Bottom Line today.
Know things will be ramping up online.



I don't need a Ouija Board to know trouble is coming.




Take it from Da Man he knows.
Don't Fall for Click Bait.
Especially when the season ramps up...


Seriously a WARNING here.
You will see things online the next few days.
Crazy things.
Long tracks from ensemble members....
..they waltz up the East Coast....
They dance off shore.
They show GOM trouble.
They show an trouble in River City.
Take then with lots of grains of sea salt.
And know trouble be coming down the line.

I'll be back later.

Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram.
Follow me there for fast up to date information.













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posted by BobbiStorm @ 6:16 AM 0 comments