UPDATED 11 PM. Tropical Storm Chantal Forms in NORTH Atlantic....African Wave Train... Orange Blossom Special... Coming Soon. Models Perk Up. Show Possibilities.
Note we may have a looper.......
#Chantal is forecast to stay out over open sea as a minimal Tropical Storm: pic.twitter.com/IrvAfo50Vn— BreakinNewz (@BreakinNewz01) August 21, 2019
Earlier tonight this happened.....
Wow, it did it... Tropical Storm #Chantal was able to develop. No threat to land. Even with it, it remains a notably quiet season so far https://t.co/lhruDEHod9— Luke Dorris (@lukedorrisWPLG) August 21, 2019
So that decision was made.
In truth 97L looked good all afternoon.
Sometimes oddly a system can form up there...
Statement from the NHC.
I'll name a few tomorrow morning for you.
Nice little ball of convection.
Looks more tropical than Barry.
We be making progress...
Phil Ferro on air in Miami puts it well.
Very well.... nice graphics.
Everyone's a critic........
Hmnnn
Irony.
As nothing was happening I went out with my husband tonight to some Meetup he attends to see friends. I had a drink... some vodka, hibiscus syrup, basil, lime, agave ... a cherry and it was good; not too sweet but enough of a kick to take my mind off the hurricane season. Then we went out for sushi.... it was good sushi.... I was tired as I woke up very early and took allergy medicine figuring I'd just go to sleep and start over in the morning and then..........they announced Chantal. Earlier today I did wonder if they might upgrade 97L as it was looking good, better than ever. It was looking better than Barry but time was passing and I was falling asleep. Now I'm up, because I had to wait for the advisory package.... yup. Chantal. Next name up is Dorian.
Night everyone... Sweet Tropical Dreams.
Ps if you haven't read the earlier discussion please do as it's all valid. Oh GFS and EURO now show another system trying to form where TD3 and Invest 97L was first found with great tropical aspirations. A sneak peak. Let's see in the morning if the models didn't back off on that or begin to lock in on it. www.spaghettimodels.com top left side where he links to Tropical Tidbits.
Nite everyone... Nite Chantal. (pretty name)
Models.
Tropics today.
Tropical Wave stretched across the Caribbean.
North end.... SW end.
GOM has low chances.
More on that later.
But look at that consistency off of Africa.
Seriously though today is August 20th.
I know hard to believe.....
The rumblings of tropical formation off in the not to distant future can be heard today as models begin to consistently show formation probabilities as we dig deeper into the month of August. You know what it's like when you hear distant thunder out there somewhere above the tree line and a bit beyond the horizon and you know someone is going to get a nasty thunderstorm but you're not sure if it's going to be at your house or your cousin Sue's down the way. It's out there coming despite seeming a bit nebulous before the skies darken and the wind begins to blow.I know hard to believe.....
Today is the day the Hurricane Season really ramps up.
Speaking statistically from an academic point of view.
Dr. Bill Gray, who I adored, would ring a bell.
So let's see what's going on today in the tropics.
Here's a good link for shear...
It changes daily.
The more green there is....
...the more we are set to GO.
I've always been a fan of wide loops as you can see all the players and how they interconnect and everything is always connected. Hurricanes don't exist in a perfect vacuum they form when all the ingredients are ready and in place. Steering currents are often locked in for the short term and evolve just so as things begin to change and change is inevitable.
We have our constant friendly frontal boundary draped across the SE like an old lazy well loved, loyal dog that lays by our feet as we play online. Occasionally it barks at some passing feature that caught it's attention and then goes predictably back to sleep but rarely leaves it's place next to our feet. We have the huge ongoing, ever occurring thunderstorm complex on that map up near St. Louis always racing like it's late for a date in Memphis on some Groundhog Day loop and we keep wondering will another Yellow X form over Tennessee again. There is the briefest suggestion down in the Caribbean of spin moving towards the tip of the Yucatan at the base of another wave that made it across the Atlantic but didn't develop because of Cousin SAL. And far off bottom right we have another, healthier tropical wave sliding across the water slide of the Inter Tropical Convergence Zone. Oh did I mention Invest 97L lived to spin out huge model support to tell tropical tales one more day.
Yeah that keeps happening.
10% yellow.
I like to call it... Tall Tales of the Tropical North Atlantic.
@icyclone says it his own way.
Hey he's got a real talent for creativity....
...and passion for the core of an hurricane.
A real hurricane.
Fluff doesn't excite him much.
He's in a mood.
He can hear the distant rumble coming.
The things we do while waiting for things to come to life.
And they are in different ways every day.
So let's do models for a change.
Note you can go to these two sites for good models.
www.spaghettimodels.com top left.
www.tropicaltidbits.com learn the site it's easy.
GFS model.
There's some weird funkiness going on there but the bottom line is it does close off tropical waves finally though it doesn't hold onto them very long, but we all have to start somewhere right?
It started with this weird radioactive symbol.
See?
Okay moving on now.
There's this itsy bitsy low.
Enough for Cranky to rant long on...
Early systems are often small.
Then they grow as way bigger.
Sometimes they come off in twos.
Then they fade away and another one forms.
A real wave train begins.
While you were watching the wave train.
This sneaky low feature develops E of Florida.
And backs up into the Panhandle.
Anyone who has ever taken Amtrak's Silver Star...
....knows this happens when the train leaves the East Coast.
Then goes backward most of the way to Tampa...
...it's weird, timely but it seems to work.
Silver Meteor stays on E coast and it's fast.
The Silver Star is NOT the meteor it's slow.
Now you know.
Moving on to the Euro.
The Euro shows waves coming off.
It daily closes them off .....
....then loses them again.
But it's a start.
On the 28th things get busier.
Lows pop up everywhere.
A low off the coast of Morocco keeps showing up oddly.
A small closed barely there low trying to move West.
Note the area is wetter now & less dry.
SAL is losing his grip.
And what's the Low off the East Coast.
Similar in ways to the GFS.
Going to remind you of something I said a while back.
I said it in the form of a joke.
But it's been as persistent as the front....
...and the MidWest frog stranglers.
I just keep seeing something odd there.
Now it's on the models.
On August 30th this model shows that.
Not that's not 97L
Could get a designation as an Invest.
Who knows ... the point is....
The show is about to begin.
Speaking of shows...
Congratulations to @iCyclone. His show is already in TV markets around the world, and now finally debuts in the U.S. https://t.co/8GJNwl4bxI— John Morales (@JohnMoralesNBC6) August 15, 2019
Kind of exciting, finally here in the USA
The reason I don't like showing models this far out with no real tropical disturbance looking rough and ready is that models change on every run. The 12Z then the 18Z then we start over and do it again and lows close off and open up the way the old pooch breathes and snores at your feet every day. It is what it is ... but.....it is a sign that things are beginning to come alive. I said that things would pop a bit in Mid August around August 15th give or take and 97L popped up and trust me with even a little bit of encouragement from Mother Nature it might have briefly gotten the name Chantal. But the real message of 97L is the same message TD3 was selling... in that we all need to watch the East Coast in the coming days.
Great loop on Tropical Tidbits if you want to watch the Gulf of Mexico in real time.
Will the energy in the Caribbean....
...hook up close in with the frontal boundary energy?
Check back tomorrow.
What about the Gulf of Mexico you ask? Let's switch modes. While the models don't show a closed Low with a name ready to be given they do show moisture tendencies and whisper possibilities. www.windy.com is a great site to play with for this set up.
Around the 22nd to the 24th there is moisture.
I can't bring it in any more than that.
I know everyone keeps waiting and talking.
My Grandma Mary used to love her Ouija Board.
No that's not my grandma but you get the idea.
We'd hold that cup and see if it moved....
No I'll stick to Tarot and Astrology ;)
Gosh I miss my Grandma Mary.
Also she had a Southern Accent.
New Orleans Voodoo sounds better that way.
Either way heavy tropical rains are coming.
So this is my Bottom Line today.
Know things will be ramping up online.
I don't need a Ouija Board to know trouble is coming.
Take it from Da Man he knows.
Don't Fall for Click Bait.
Especially when the season ramps up...
Seriously a WARNING here.
You will see things online the next few days.
Crazy things.
Long tracks from ensemble members....
..they waltz up the East Coast....
They dance off shore.
They show GOM trouble.
They show an trouble in River City.
Take then with lots of grains of sea salt.
And know trouble be coming down the line.
I'll be back later.
Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram.
Follow me there for fast up to date information.
Labels: 97L, Chantal, clickbait, countrymusic, hurricane, internet, models, season, songs, Storm, trains, tropical, tropics, trouble, Waves, weather
posted by BobbiStorm @ 6:16 AM
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